War Against ISIS

[gazzzwp]

NATO vessels in the Bosphorus and boosting presence in the Mediterranean to bolster defence of Turkey.

Turkish citizens reassured by NATO ships in Bosphorus | euronews, world news

Is this just a solidarity gesture or are NATO genuinely anticipating some military response from Russia?

 

[gf0012-aust]

What do you mean? I'm not sure I'm reading it wrong or if it is my lack of sleep, but I'm not sure what you mean by that.

If syria no longer controls the golan height and Daesh elect to use the golan as an entry point to cause the israeli's trouble - then one would assume that 3rd parties will respond - and in all likelihood the russians on behalf of assad

I can see the israelis tolerating accidental overflights from trom the russians "up to a point" but if their border integrity is compromised then they will react with violence and won't be waiting for anyone to do work which they feel that they should do in the first place.

they're showing restraint at the moment - and I suspect that is because NATO and the Russians would be doing their best to keep things calm with "promises to keep" about how they will escalate a response in the event of Daesh compromising israels borders through the failure of Assads ground forces to contain them etc....

 

[wittmanace]

If syria no longer controls the golan height and Daesh elect to use the golan as an entry point to cause the israeli's trouble - then one would assume that 3rd parties will respond - and in all likelihood the russians on behalf of assad

I can see the israelis tolerating accidental overflights from trom the russians "up to a point" but if their border integrity is compromised then they will react with violence and won't be waiting for anyone to do work which they feel that they should do in the first place.

they're showing restraint at the moment - and I suspect that is because NATO and the Russians would be doing their best to keep things calm with "promises to keep" about how they will escalate a response in the event of Daesh compromising israels borders through the failure of Assads ground forces to contain them etc....

Yeah the Golan issue might be problematic. To be honest I had assumed the primary Israeli area of interest would have been western Syria with the Lebanese border, with concerns regarding weapons and munitions and so forth transfer to Hezbollah in Lebanon. I assumed the Israelis were, and by a fair margin, more concerned regarding Hezbollah getting new capabilities (longer range or more advanced missiles, SA capabilities, heavier anti shipping, etc etc) than the border area of the Golan.

I personally don't see Israel being concerned overly with the idea of Daesh in the golan as it would be much more manageable and containable as well as having a lot of backing (the fight against them) all round from all directions. I can't see Daesh looking to bite off more by trying to get into Israel, but perhaps I am mistaken in all this.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A Turkish btln with 25 tanks or armored vehicles (unclear) entered Iraq, with the Iraqis threatening military action if they don't leave. A reminder, there is a relationship between Iraqi Kurdistan and the Turkish government, who would rather have aspirations of Kurdish independence in Iraq then in Turkey and Syria. It should also be noted that Iraqi Kurdistan is relatively rich, while Syrian and Turkish Kurdistan are very poor.

Мало Ð*оÑÑии, еще и Ирак зацепили - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russia continues oil convoy hunting, and bombing wells and refineries. They've also suggested that the US is covering for Turkish oil purchases from ISIS. Russia also claims that over the past week, 2000 fighters, 250 vehicles, and 120 tonns of material have entered Syria from Turkey, for ISIS and al-Nusra.

It also appears that Russia is flying more CAS for the Syrians in Latakia province.

Охота за нефтÑными конвоÑми - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíîáîðîíû íàìåêíóëî íà èíòåðåñ ÑØÀ â ïîñòàâêàõ íåôòè ÈÃ â Òóðöèþ: ñëåïîòà "ïîïàõèâàåò" ïîêðîâèòåëüñòâîì
Análisis Militares: Desde Turquía se abastece al EI/DAESH
ДейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð’ÐšÐ¡ Ð*оÑÑии в Сирии за неделю Ñ 26 ноÑÐ±Ñ€Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ 4 Ð´ÐµÐºÐ°Ð±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd

A photo of a soldier with a Javelin ATGM, allegedly in Iraqi Kurdistan.

ПТÐ*К FGM-148 Javelin, но не тем. - Берлога Бронемедведа

Iraq takes delivery of 4 Mi-28NE and 4 Mi-35M. They ordered a total of 24 Mi-35M and 19 Mi-28NE, and only a couple more are left to be delivered. It remains to be seen whether additional buys will follow.

Análisis Militares: Algunos datos sobre los helicópteros rusos para Irak (actualizado)

Su-30SM are now seen flying escort much more frequently. Here's one over Idlib with an Su-34.

Видео ÑовмеÑтного пролета роÑÑийÑких Су-34 и Су-30СМ в провинции Идлиб на Ñеверо-западе Сирии | Военный информатор

Meanwhile this photo of Russian military personnel, allegedly taken near Palmyra, now surfaces as an illustration to an article about the Russian military training the Syrians in Idlib province, for a decisive offensive.

Ð*оÑÑийÑкие и ÑирийÑкие войÑка проводÑÑ‚ ÑƒÑ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ´ контрнаÑтуплением в провинции Идлиб - bmpd

The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls for Russia to cancel the economic sanctions.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÌÈÄ Òóðöèè ïðèçâàë Ðîññèþ îòìåíèòü ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ñàíêöèè

EDIT: A photo of a Russian BDK passing the Bosphorus shows a Russian marine or sailor with a MANPADS on the deck. Turkey has called this a provocation, and hopes it won't happen again.

http://newsru.com/world/06dec2015/bosforfire.html

The Charles de Gaulle is headed to the Persian Gulf.

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/3016308.html

 

[swerve]

There were already Turkish troops in Iraq, training locals under an agreement with the local Iraqi governor, apparently acting independently. The Turks say this was a reinforcement of the trainers, with an escorting force. It travelled through Iraqi Kurdistan, apparently by arrangement with the local government. Kurdish officers are reported to have confirmed the movement to foreign reporters.

 

[chemical bro]

In the Russian media -
Air power USA has spent 15 months campaign against the militants of the "Islamic state" more than 20 thousand missiles and bombs, which led to a shortage of ammunition, reports CNN with reference to the representative of the American air force .
As noted, the military aircraft the US has requested additional funding for the purchase of Hellfire missiles. The report said that the Agency is also developing plans to increase production of weapons to quickly restock.
The chief of staff of the U.S. air force mark Welsh confirmed that currently "ammunition is consumed faster than they can be replenished"...
On the other hand Assad liked the efficiency of the Russian presence and he asks for a ground operation. Putin is in no hurry, although he had been unleashed and he's right. The budget decides.
We know about the problems with spare parts for airplanes in Germany.
Is war cease be attractive to investors?

 

[wittmanace]

why cant joint turkish-USA defeat ISIS threat in the region?

What makes you think they have the same priorities? The Turkish view and position on the Kurds is rather in contrast to the American position and the fact that the Kurds are important players in fighting daesh. Both of their actions also make it hard to have a shared and singular objective.

Not to mention....in the absence of Kurds doing it, or Assads forces...who would be the ground forces doing the heavy lifting?

 

[Somali-Turk]

That is what makes everthing complicated.
Before the syrian war,we didnt have much of ISIS or daish,eventhough the regime was brutal and dictator.Right now,we have a spill of ISIS through out eastafrica importing thier radical view of islam here in somalia and unless situation continues like this,we may have our own ISIS in somalia-horn of africa.

 

[Feanor]

There were already Turkish troops in Iraq, training locals under an agreement with the local Iraqi governor, apparently acting independently. The Turks say this was a reinforcement of the trainers, with an escorting force. It travelled through Iraqi Kurdistan, apparently by arrangement with the local government. Kurdish officers are reported to have confirmed the movement to foreign reporters.

Apparently the Turks are halting the deployment of their trainers out, after the Iraqi threat of air strikes against them. Remember, Iraq is in bed with Russia and Iran. Iranian militias are on the ground, and Russia is a major source of weapons for them. I wouldn't be surprised if Iraq pulled this stunt intentionally as a way of making the Turks look bad, and generally pressuring Turkey, slowly excluding them from the coalition. They already can't fly over Syria, if Iraq says no to Turkey as well, their ISIS-fighting days are over.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ ïðèîñòàíîâèëà îòïðàâêó âîåííûõ â Èðàê ïîñëå ïðîòåñòà Áàãäàäà

 

[chemical bro]

Does anyone have information about the bombing of the Syrian army by unknown forces ? In Russia are worried about it.

 

[wittmanace]

Does anyone have information about the bombing of the Syrian army by unknown forces ? In Russia are worried about it.

U.S. Led coalition deny it was them


Syria calls US-led coalition air strike on Assad regime forces an 'act of aggression' | Middle East | News | The Independent

 

[chemical bro]

Assad can not be trusted.Maybe someone wants to find out а steel grade of the Putin,s eggs?

 

[SASWanabe]

Apparently the Turks are halting the deployment of their trainers out, after the Iraqi threat of air strikes against them. Remember, Iraq is in bed with Russia and Iran. Iranian militias are on the ground, and Russia is a major source of weapons for them. I wouldn't be surprised if Iraq pulled this stunt intentionally as a way of making the Turks look bad, and generally pressuring Turkey, slowly excluding them from the coalition. They already can't fly over Syria, if Iraq says no to Turkey as well, their ISIS-fighting days are over.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ ïðèîñòàíîâèëà îòïðàâêó âîåííûõ â Èðàê ïîñëå ïðîòåñòà Áàãäàäà

Have they actually been fighting ISIS that much? i remember when they first started launching strikes weren't the majority directed at the Kurds?

 

[Feanor]

Have they actually been fighting ISIS that much? i remember when they first started launching strikes weren't the majority directed at the Kurds?

Well they're nominally part of the coalition. If they're not able to take part in it, and regularly jeopardize the coalition itself, they may end up outside of it. It would be a big win for Russia if Turkey left or was told to leave the coalition. Right now the US can still pretend that they're allies, and fighting ISIS together.

 

[stojo]

Well they're nominally part of the coalition. If they're not able to take part in it, and regularly jeopardize the coalition itself, they may end up outside of it. It would be a big win for Russia if Turkey left or was told to leave the coalition. Right now the US can still pretend that they're allies, and fighting ISIS together.

Well USA is frequently unhappy with Israel regional policies, but you rarely get anything else than critical remarks of "anonymous high officials" or lukewarm public dissent with what they do.

I mean, what might US do -- toss Turkey out of NATO? If Turkey decides to engage on the ground in Syria - US cant stop it.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

4 US jets hit a Syrian army camp in Deyr-ez-Zor. 3 dead, 13 wounded. It certainly could be a mistake, given how hard it is to distinguish some of the "Syrian Army" units from rebels, based on appearance.

Ðвиаудар Ñил коалиции по ÑирийÑким войÑкам - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè îò àâèàóäàðà êîàëèöèè ïîãèáëè òðîå ñîëäàò ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííîé àðìèè

Iraqi Shiite militias and Kurds have agreed to work together against ISIS.

Курды и проиранÑкие шиитÑкие Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ираке заключили Ñоглашение о взаимодейÑтвии - bmpd

The German vice-chancellor just said that they do not intend to close their eyes to the Saudi financing of Islamic extremists.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áåðëèí îáâèíèë Ñàóäîâñêóþ Àðàâèþ â ôèíàíñèðîâàíèè ýêñòðåìèñòîâ

A catalog of ISIS oil infrastructure hit by Russia, and an open source analysis that claims many of them aren't actually pieces of oil infrastructure.

Actually CI Team goes further then that and claims that Russia is massively over-stating the ISIS oil trade, and Turkish complicity. But there are several things in their analysis that give me pause, including their willingness to label the IHH as a humanitarian organization, and leave it at that. They're correct in that the Russian presentation a few days ago is hardly decisive proof of Turkish behavior. But otherwise, they seem to have left much unsaid.

Análisis Militares: "Catálogo" de las instalaciones petroleras del EI/DAESH atacadas por la aviación rusa
https://citeam.org/fact-checking-rus-mod-s-claims-on-isis-s-oil-bussines/

Russia confirms that they're already using two other airfields for operations in Syria, but don't have a heavy presence at either the way they do at Hmeimeem. They are using Sha'ayrat and al-Tiyas.

Ðу да. "Хмеймим" не резиновый... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

Strange reports that Qatar is trying to acquire old Soviet unguided bombs from Ukraine. Could those bombs be intended for "moderate rebels" in Syria, to use as IEDs? Or are they simply buying some ordinance fotheir Sudanese allies' Su-24s?

Ðвиабомбы Ð´Ð»Ñ ÐšÐ°Ñ‚Ð°Ñ€Ð° - Colonel Cassad

Meanwhile Obama has received a report that ISIS could spread almost anywhere in the world, if it's not defeated.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àìåðèêàíñêàÿ ðàçâåäêà ïðåäîñòåðåãàåò: åñëè "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" íå ïîáåäèòü â Ñèðèè, îíî ðàñïðîñòðàíèòñÿ ïî âñåìó ìèðó

 

[Feanor]

Well USA is frequently unhappy with Israel regional policies, but you rarely get anything else than critical remarks of "anonymous high officials" or lukewarm public dissent with what they do.

I mean, what might US do -- toss Turkey out of NATO? If Turkey decides to engage on the ground in Syria - US cant stop it.

I suspect a lot would depend on the nature of their engagement, and even more on the Russian and Iranian response.

 

[GermanHerman]

Update.
The German vice-chancellor just said that they do not intend to close their eyes to the Saudi financing of Islamic extremists.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áåðëèí îáâèíèë Ñàóäîâñêóþ Àðàâèþ â ôèíàíñèðîâàíèè ýêñòðåìèñòîâ

Don't overestimate this though, Gabriel is a rather weak political player seeking to strike some cheap points.

The goverment of Germany dosnt bother to halt any weapon exports to the Saudis and that pretty much says it all, it is the same level of criticism that for example the P.R. China gets, e.g. much talk but no consequences.

 

[swerve]

...The goverment of Germany dosnt bother to halt any weapon exports to the Saudis and that pretty much says it all,.....

I thought that it had blocked the sale of Leopard 2.

 

[ngatimozart]

Daesh Instruction Manuals

The Guardian has run a story regarding leaked Daesh papers pertaining to be instructions for the institution and management of a government infrastructure. Another is a Der Speigel article claiming that Daesh was the brain child of a group of embittered Iraqi intelligence officers from the former Saddam Hussein regime who found themselves unemployed when the Iraqi government and armed forces were dismissed and dissolved by decree in 2003. According to the article a blueprint was crafted by one Haji Bakr, who was in reality an ex Colonel Samir Abd Muhammad al-Khlifawi an Intelligence officer from Saddam's Air Force. He was killed in a firefight in January 2014 but Daesh still follow the blueprint religiously. The article claims that whilst Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is seen as the leader of Daesh, he may in fact be controlled by the real leaders, the embittered intelligence officers.

These articles may in fact be reasonably accurate, however I believe that whilst they may offer insight into the structure and driving force of Daesh, they have to be treated with caution until there is independent verification of the authenticity of the source documents.