War Against ISIS

[gf0012-aust]

I didn't even mention Crimea. I mentioned South Ossetia. In both cases a foreign power launched a military action, without an approval of UN, against another country in order to support local separatist movements, which where fighting the central government. In both cases the population of the seceded provinces largely looked at the intervening forces with sympathies. In both cases, invading powers claimed that the invasion was launched in order to curtail the ethnic cleansing (although, there where obvious anterior motives).

And in both cases one country was accusing the other, of the same transgressions of international law, of which the said country was culpable her self.

In the end, none of that mattered. The only think that was important at the end, was sheer military and political influence on the ground.

Btw....750 years of struggle for "autonomy" of Kosovo is utter nationalist nonsense, (as is the case with most of these narratives of multi millennial "struggle" for national "liberation" around the world). However knowing how these arguments usually end up (especially related to Balkans) ill refrain on elaborating, since it is irrelevant.

Its irrelevant what you think is relevant or nonsensical - its what the Kosovars think is relevant. I interviewed a number of Kosovars post conflict and they certainly held a historical perspective on the length of their struggle

change your attitude - I'm not in the mood to suffer people who are going to be prickly just because others have a different view.

as for me mentioning Crimea - that's relevant to me - so in effect - so what. You're free to mention Sth Ossetia, as everyone else would be free to mention Georgia, Crimea, Estonia, Poland or whatever other country or region has some insight into the cause and effect of another countries geopolitical attention

 

[surpreme]

That's a good point. My question would be does the Russia EW equipment make them totally invulnerable within that perimeter?

Is it the case that any plane, guided missile (attack or defensive) simply useless in that arena now?

One thing I learned anything made by man is not 100% reliable. Each tech guy on both sides meaning NATO/U.S. and Russian are checking thing out. To get to your question it just makes it harder now. Up to date Air Forces have ECM to counter there EW so its not going to make it useless to go in that arena now.

 

[Feanor]

I'm not so sure that there is equivalency in this.

eg the Kosovars have been fighting for autonomy from various "masters" for over 750 years - whereas ithe Crimeans had emotional and historical links with the Russians which supported the diaspora argument to some extent

But there is equivalency. The Georgians and Ossetians have been slitting each others throats for centuries too. Where do you see a difference between Yugoslavia and Georgia in the 90s? Both had bloody civil wars because the ethnic groups inside couldn't get along. Both had violent nationalists in power that tried to exterminate certain populations. Both required international intervention to stop the fighting.

And what's your view on the massive numbers of Albanians who migrated into Kosovo?

Its irrelevant what you think is relevant or nonsensical - its what the Kosovars think is relevant. I interviewed a number of Kosovars post conflict and they certainly held a historical perspective on the length of their struggle

Just because they've held that perspective, doesn't mean they're correct. Or is the historical accuracy not significant?

 

[gf0012-aust]

But there is equivalency. The Georgians and Ossetians have been slitting each others throats for centuries too. Where do you see a difference between Yugoslavia and Georgia in the 90s? Both had bloody civil wars because the ethnic groups inside couldn't get along. Both had violent nationalists in power that tried to exterminate certain populations. Both required international intervention to stop the fighting.

And what's your view on the massive numbers of Albanians who migrated into Kosovo?

Just because they've held that perspective, doesn't mean they're correct. Or is the historical accuracy not significant?

specifically back to my answer - my understanding is that the crimeans have always had a strong emotional link to the russians - not to the ukraine or any other commonwealth in the region

yugoslavia was only a single entity due to the sheer willpower of one individual and his command of the state.

the albanians went to kosovo to escape their own localised issues of persecution - kosovo was seen as a safer bet as it was apparent that there was some protection available and certainly not the same levels of broader persecution that they suffered from locally.

temporal issues don't make things permanent. China makes historical claims based on some infrequent contact, yet her regional neighbours take umbrage at that association, Turkey still thinks that vestiges of the prev Ottoman Empire still have currency - and thats not the case either.

at some point in time anyone can run any national argument they want depending on their inherent prejudices... such is life

 

[Feanor]

specifically back to my answer - my understanding is that the crimeans have always had a strong emotional link to the russians - not to the ukraine or any other commonwealth in the region

yugoslavia was only a single entity due to the sheer willpower of one individual and his command of the state.

Yes, and Georgia was a single entity by the will of Soviet politicians in the early 20s. My question specifically, is where you see the difference in principle between the western stance on Kosovo vs. the western stance on say Abkhazia. If anything there is a stronger case for Abkhazia, since they have a viable national economy, and are far from recent immigrants to their own territory.

the albanians went to kosovo to escape their own localised issues of persecution - kosovo was seen as a safer bet as it was apparent that there was some protection available and certainly not the same levels of broader persecution that they suffered from locally.

Sure, but does that then give them room to push for Kosovo independence? That's no different if Middle Eastern and North African refugees to Europe today, started demanding independence and their own states 25 years from now. How viable is the Kosovo independence bid without the relatively recent Albanian immigrants?

temporal issues don't make things permanent. China makes historical claims based on some infrequent contact, yet her regional neighbours take umbrage at that association, Turkey still thinks that vestiges of the prev Ottoman Empire still have currency - and thats not the case either.

at some point in time anyone can run any national argument they want depending on their inherent prejudices... such is life

Sort of. But you've carefully deflected from the issue at hand. The west, the US in particular, but many major European powers as well, claim to take a principal stand on self-determination. Either this principal stand is bogus, as you say any argument they want. Or it's not. Stojo made the argument that it is bogus. Their stand is not principal, it's opportunistic and political in nature. You seemed to disagree, stating that there is a difference (since we're dealing with questions of principle, the difference needs to be fairly substantial). What is it? Where does the west (their relationship with Russia, and other political nonsense aisde) see a fundamental distinction that allows them to, in the absolute, uphold the independence of Kosovo but refuse to recognize the same for Abkhazia?

I understand this is rather off topic, but I suspect these same issues will rapidly arise vis-a-vis Kurdistan, and we've already arrived here by talking about the Turks, and the ethnic Turkmen. Assuming the Turks don't simply roll over, and let Russia shut the border down, the issue isn't going away, and the western powers will likely have to take a stand. Will it be principal, or opportunistic?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Will it be principal, or opportunistic?

all decisions are driven by political opportunism - principles are for public consumption - by any government

 

[Feanor]

all decisions are driven by political opportunism - principles are for public consumption - by any government

Thank you. I think this was stojo's point.

 

[chemical bro]

Just statistics

48 day the aviation of the Russian air force completed 2289 sorties and struck 4111 bombing attacks on key infrastructure, clusters of military equipment and manpower of ISIS. Aviation group, was growing: in Hamima bombers su-24M and su-34, su-25SM, the su-30SM has joined the four su-27sm3 fighter jets and eight su-34. In parallel, I was kicked and using strategic aircraft (Tu-95MS, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3), cruise missiles X-101 and X-555.
Naval grouping in the Mediterranean sea and the Caspian sea consisted of ten ships. In this November 20, rocket ship "Dagestan" and small missile ships "Uglich" and "Grad Sviyazhsk" and "Velikiy Ustyug" carried out 18 launches of cruise missiles "Caliber-NK" with seven goals in the provinces of raqqa, Idlib and Aleppo. In total was commissioned by 101 cruise missiles, air-and sea-based.

 

[Feanor]

48 day the aviation of the Russian air force completed 2289 sorties and struck 4111 bombing attacks on key infrastructure, clusters of military equipment and manpower of ISIS. Aviation group, was growing: in Hamima bombers su-24M and su-34, su-25SM, the su-30SM has joined the four su-27sm3 fighter jets and eight su-34. In parallel, I was kicked and using strategic aircraft (Tu-95MS, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3), cruise missiles X-101 and X-555.
Naval grouping in the Mediterranean sea and the Caspian sea consisted of ten ships. In this November 20, rocket ship "Dagestan" and small missile ships "Uglich" and "Grad Sviyazhsk" and "Velikiy Ustyug" carried out 18 launches of cruise missiles "Caliber-NK" with seven goals in the provinces of raqqa, Idlib and Aleppo. In total was commissioned by 101 cruise missiles, air-and sea-based.

101 cruise missiles is the information for No 17-20th. It's my understanding that more were fired since.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

It appears ISIS has made some gains against the FSA north of Aleppo. It's likely that Assad's offensive in the south has drained much of their resources.

The MoD just released a briefing regarding rebel oil export out of Syria. They talk about Turkey and the terrorists being a single gang, robbing Syria of their oil, and it being an Edrogan family business. They also called on journalists to investigate and publish their results.

Personal comment: swerve you were asking about oil convoys in Latakia and Idlib? According to the MoD maps, one of the ISIS export routes to Turkey goes through there. It looks like they mean Idlib, but the map is rather crude and meant to illustrate.

Брифинг Минобороны - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Turkey is taking steps to minimize losses from Russian sanctions, but details are lacking. Maybe they meant that they will resume violations of Greek airspace, because apparently they have, and with 6 jets at once.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ íàìåðåíà ìèíèìèçèðîâàòü óùåðá îò ñàíêöèé Ðîññèè
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãðåöèÿ â î÷åðåäíîé ðàç çàÿâèëà î íàðóøåíèè ñâîåãî âîçäóøíîãî ïðîñòðàíñòâà òóðåöêèìè ÂÂÑ

A Turkish government news source claimed that Russian air control lost communication with two jets for a period of time. While this particular story appears to be fake, the bort numbers of the planes don't match any actually deployed to Syria, this is likely an attempt to emphasize the recent deployment of Turkish EW to their border.

ÐазеÐлужбы базы "Хмеймим" потерÑли ÑвÑзь Ñ Ð´Ð²ÑƒÐ¼Ñ Ñамолетами в ÑирийÑком небе - турецкие СМИ - bmpd

 

[Toblerone]

Erdogan should have just swept the accusations away as russian propaganda, he shouldn't have challenged for proof. This way he allows the russians to continue this policy of shining the light on his dirty business, making Turkey seem as a big ISIS supporter. Another mistake imo, he is getting schooled.

And yes, there were f-16 formations violating greek airspace, what a useless exhibition.

 

[stojo]

Its irrelevant what you think is relevant or nonsensical - its what the Kosovars think is relevant. I interviewed a number of Kosovars post conflict and they certainly held a historical perspective on the length of their struggle

Well I'm glad you have. Hope you interviewed some Serbs, as well. They would tell you their historical perspective on their 750 year long struggle for the "liberty" of Kosovo, and also the connection between Kosovo and some of the essential parts of Serbian collective memory which lies at the core of the Serbian national identity.

In fact, historical links between Serbs and Kosovo, and the role Kosovo plays in Serbian national identity is one of much higher importance than the that of Crimea in Russian (or while we are at it, Kosovo in generic Albanian identity).

Its not the point "who is right" in these disputes, since the rule of the thumb is that no one usually is. National myths (like the one on "750 years of struggle for autonomy" , or Serbian myths regarding Kosovo battle in XIV century), are nothing but the relatively modern narratives, used by different political structures to their own means.

The point is that conflicting "historical perspectives" exist in every part of modern world, in the era of nationalism, where national conflicts emerge.

Its the case in South Ossetia, in Abkhazia, in Nagorno-Karabakh, Catalonia, Baskia, Kosovo ... or, for that matter in Israel and Palestine.

And those cant be used as a justification for a land grab. Thats the point.

Thank you. I think this was stojo's point.

Exactly.

 

[wittmanace]

I see the news is that Daesh released a video of an unmasked Russian daesh killer beheading a Russian in an orange jump suit, the latter an alleged spy for Russian intelligence. I'm not going to link to anything or the story, but apparently the killer speaks to Putin in it.

I can imagine Putin having a very angry reaction to that.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Well I'm glad you have. Hope you interviewed some Serbs, as well.

sigh, if the pissing contest is over

no I didn't interview serbs - I had serbian speaking staff who did that

I only dealt with traumatised refugees from that period

 

[wittmanace]

Let's move on, I think nerves are getting frayed and it has the potential to derail a fascinating thread.



I see the bbc has put together a story regarding what was behind the Putin Turkey Daesh oil claims. It was dec 1st though, before the other presentations by Russia


Does Turkey really get its oil from Islamic State? - BBC News

 

[2007yellow430]

Let's move on, I think nerves are getting frayed and it has the potential to derail a fascinating thread.



I see the bbc has put together a story regarding what was behind the Putin Turkey Daesh oil claims. It was dec 1st though, before the other presentations by Russia


Does Turkey really get its oil from Islamic State? - BBC News

The article does show oil moving. What it doesn't show is the connection. Let's see if and when that last piece is made public.

Art

 

[wittmanace]

More and more recent, adding detail (from Wednesday, whereas the bbc article was Monday):

Russia says it has proof Turkey involved in Islamic State oil trade | Reuters

 

[GermanHerman]

Here is a link to the russian presentation with english translation from RT if any one cares for the primary source of all that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMA4B2ZnQ2o

I don't know if I like the way this is spiraling out of control, russia seems to be very determend to make an example out of Turkey and this leaves no easy way for anyone to concede defeat without loosing his face in public.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Britain enter the war against ISIS. It should be noted that Britan has already been training and arming the Kurds, and volunteers from Britain have been fighting against ISIS for quite some time. They will be using their airbase in Cyprus, and have already struck the first targets inside Syria. Just like France and the US, Britain of course did not deign to ask for Syrian permission to enter their airspace, or strike targets, illustrating that despite the fact that Assad is likely to remain in office for a while, his international regard is nonexistent.

Ð‘Ñ€Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ñтупает в войну - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áðèòàíñêèå ñàìîëåòû Tornado íàíåñëè ïåðâûå óäàðû ïî ïîçèöèÿì ÈÃ â Ñèðèè

A total of 4 An-124 flights landed at Sha'ayrat yesterday, and Russian planes and helos have used the Tias airbase in the past, there is some speculation that it's also a candidate for Russian military presence.

At the same time, Russian military personnel visited the front line near Palmyra. There are no details on the visit and no official confirmation, only some photos. You can clearly see Russain military personnel, and a Tigr-M armored car in the background. One of the twitter comments says in Russian that they're Marines, which is quite likely. The 810th MarBde has significant presence on the ground.

The most interesting photo is the fourth link, the gentleman on the right. He looks like he could be Russian SSO. Especially with the weapons and uniform. They match Russian SSO from the new center, as seen in Crimea, and some training exercises. The kitted out AK is also fairly typical for those types of units.

Дело ÑÑное, что дело тёмное... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата
Ðаши под Пальмирой - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
https://mobile.twitter.com/Syria_Protector/status/672093459227025409
https://mobile.twitter.com/Syria_Protector/status/670507972787875840/photo/1

An interesting look at the weapons and EW carried by Su-34s in Syria.

Análisis Militares: El Su-34 en Siria

There is a more detailed version of the Russian presentation on Turkish oil dealings with Syrian rebels of various kinds. This one has plenty of satellite photos of routes and crossing points.

Análisis Militares: Rusia acusa a Erdogan y familia de beneficarse del tráfico ilegal de petróleo del Estado Islámico

 

[wittmanace]

Update.

Britain enter the war against ISIS. It should be noted that Britan has already been training and arming the Kurds, and volunteers from Britain have been fighting against ISIS for quite some time. They will be using their airbase in Cyprus, and have already struck the first targets inside Syria. Just like France and the US, Britain of course did not deign to ask for Syrian permission to enter their airspace, or strike targets, illustrating that despite the fact that Assad is likely to remain in office for a while, his international regard is nonexistent.

Ð‘Ñ€Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ñтупает в войну - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áðèòàíñêèå ñàìîëåòû Tornado íàíåñëè ïåðâûå óäàðû ïî ïîçèöèÿì ÈÃ â Ñèðèè

A total of 4 An-124 flights landed at Sha'ayrat yesterday, and Russian planes and helos have used the Tias airbase in the past, there is some speculation that it's also a candidate for Russian military presence.

At the same time, Russian military personnel visited the front line near Palmyra. There are no details on the visit and no official confirmation, only some photos. You can clearly see Russain military personnel, and a Tigr-M armored car in the background. One of the twitter comments says in Russian that they're Marines, which is quite likely. The 810th MarBde has significant presence on the ground.

The most interesting photo is the third link, the gentleman on the right. He looks like he could be Russian SSO. Especially with the weapons and uniform. They match Russian SSO from the new center, as seen in Crimea, and some training exercises. The kitted out AK is also fairly typical for those types of units.

Дело ÑÑное, что дело тёмное... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата
Ðаши под Пальмирой - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
https://mobile.twitter.com/Syria_Protector/status/672093459227025409
https://mobile.twitter.com/Syria_Protector/status/670507972787875840/photo/1

An interesting look at the weapons and EW carried by Su-34s in Syria.

Análisis Militares: El Su-34 en Siria

There is a more detailed version of the Russian presentation on Turkish oil dealings with Syrian rebels of various kinds. This one has plenty of satellite photos of routes and crossing points.

Análisis Militares: Rusia acusa a Erdogan y familia de beneficarse del tráfico ilegal de petróleo del Estado Islámico

Do you mean the fourth link? Do you know what the patch is in the second pic in the fourth link?