War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

Russia has responded to allegations of a strike on SDF forces in Deyr ez Zor. The statement from the MoD says that the US-led coalition was informed of the area of operations for the Russian airforce striking targets around Deyr ez Zor, and that the targets struck were in areas under ISIS control, adding that they had no evidence of any third party fighting ISIS in that area.

Ok so this does give us some insights. It appears that Russia is hammering in the stakes and marking the territorial extent of the Syrian offensive. One of the ways is by deploying Russian SpN to the front line, another is by striking at anything not part of the Russo-Syrian coalition, that is in the area. There was supposition earlier that the dividing line between the Syrians and the Kurds might be the Euphrates, and given how far westward the Syrian lines were at that time, this appeared to be a rather generous demarcation but given the rapid gains around Palmyra, Akkerbart, and along the Iraqi-Syrian border, there is a good chance that the SAA will attempt to take at least some of the oil fields on the eastern side of the Euphrates, or at the very least retain positive control over both sides of the Euphrates itself, preventing it from forming a powerful natural barrier. Just so we're clear, this is my personal interpretation, other's are welcome to contribute.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3686245.html

 

[Feanor]

Update time.

The SAA has a definite and expanding foothold on the other side of the Euphrates. A little longer, and they will cut the SDF off from the oil fields. ISIS appears to have lost the strategic initiative, possibly permanently. It appears the SDF attempted to destroy the pontoon bridge by releasing water from a dam up-river, but it didn't work. Part of the offensive involved newly delivered T-62s from Russia. Previously the 5th Army Corps only got T-62Ms, now regular T-62s as well.

A number of ISIS boats were also destroyed.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3692081.html
https://twower.livejournal.com/2148826.html
Gur Khan attacks!: Евфрат форÑировали недавно прибывшие в Сирию танки Т-62
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1014136.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1010463.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3684738.html

Meanwhile the first Syrian Air flight, a Yak-42, has landed at Deyr ez Zor.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1013547.html

Meanwhile in northern Hama, al-Nusra has attempted another offensive. It has ended in disaster, with massive casualties, and Russia has accused the US of using this to distract Russia from Deyr ez Zor. The US of course denies it. In a dramatic incident a platoon of Russian MPs was cut off by the attack, and spent several hours in encirclement. A special task force consisting of additional MPs, Russian SoF, and some Syrian special forces were used to de-blockade the platoon. 3 Russian service members were wounded in the fighting. Both of the T-90s in rebel hands have also been retaken, one intact, one destroyed.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2859686.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïåíòàãîí îòâåðã îáâèíåíèÿ Ìîñêâû â ïîääåðæêå ÑØÀ áîåâèêîâ "Äæåáõàò àí-Íóñðû"* â Ñèðèè
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/660651.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1024406.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3693287.html

Additionally a Russian service member was killed in an unrelated ambush.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè ïîãèá åùå îäèí ðîññèéñêèé âîåííîñëóæàùèé

In addition to Syrian Kurdistan, the Turks are also gathering troops at Iraqi Kurdistan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3687725.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3686771.html

ISIS designated marksman training.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1008075.html

 

[ASSAIL]

Update time.

The SAA has a definite and expanding foothold on the other side of the Euphrates. A little longer, and they will cut the SDF off from the oil fields. ISIS appears to have lost the strategic initiative, possibly permanently. It appears the SDF attempted to destroy the pontoon bridge by releasing water from a dam up-river, but it didn't work. Part of the offensive involved newly delivered T-62s from Russia. Previously the 5th Army Corps only got T-62Ms, now regular T-62s as well.

A number of ISIS boats were also destroyed.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3692081.html
https://twower.livejournal.com/2148826.html
Gur Khan attacks!: Евфрат форÑировали недавно прибывшие в Сирию танки Т-62
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1014136.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1010463.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3684738.html

Meanwhile the first Syrian Air flight, a Yak-42, has landed at Deyr ez Zor.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1013547.html

Meanwhile in northern Hama, al-Nusra has attempted another offensive. It has ended in disaster, with massive casualties, and Russia has accused the US of using this to distract Russia from Deyr ez Zor. The US of course denies it. In a dramatic incident a platoon of Russian MPs was cut off by the attack, and spent several hours in encirclement. A special task force consisting of additional MPs, Russian SoF, and some Syrian special forces were used to de-blockade the platoon. 3 Russian service members were wounded in the fighting. Both of the T-90s in rebel hands have also been retaken, one intact, one destroyed.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2859686.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïåíòàãîí îòâåðã îáâèíåíèÿ Ìîñêâû â ïîääåðæêå ÑØÀ áîåâèêîâ "Äæåáõàò àí-Íóñðû"* â Ñèðèè
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/660651.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1024406.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3693287.html

Additionally a Russian service member was killed in an unrelated ambush.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè ïîãèá åùå îäèí ðîññèéñêèé âîåííîñëóæàùèé

In addition to Syrian Kurdistan, the Turks are also gathering troops at Iraqi Kurdistan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3687725.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3686771.html

ISIS designated marksman training.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1008075.html

Sorry for the one liner but that was a great summary, thanks.

 

[gazzzwp]

Russian Lieutenant killed in ISIS shelling.

https://www.rt.com/news/404410-russian-general-killed-syria/

No details forthcoming at this time. I'm just hoping that the attack was not US led resistance for obvious reasons.

Furthermore the US have vowed to up their surveillance of the Russian operations in view of the two powers operating in ever more dangerous proximity to each other.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/24/politics/us-boosts-surveillance-russia-syria/index.html

The war has just stepped up in intensity imho.

 

[Feanor]

Some updates.

Russian MinDef has just accused the US of colluding with ISIS, namely of ISIS allowing US and SDF forces to pass through ISIS-held territory without a fight, as part of a landgrab to cut the SAA off of the Deyr ez Zor oil fields. Evidence is the lack of security around US and SDF positions near ISIS, and the taking of ex-ISIS fortifications without any signs of a battle. This comes as the Kurds rapidly expand their area of control north of Deyr ez Zor, and it's important to note that Syrian sources are claiming that the crossing of the Euphrates is based on a Russo-American agreement.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3701634.html
https://twower.livejournal.com/2151611.html
Курды пытаютÑÑ Ñ€Ð°Ñширить зону ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ñ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ð»Ñ Ð½Ð° левом берегу Евфрата под Дейр-Ñз-Зором - Военный Обозреватель
https://www.qasioun.net/en/news/sho...ssing_Euphrates_is_a_US_Russian_Understanding

The Maadan pocket, north-west of Deyr ez Zor is falling apart, as ISIS resistance crumbles.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3700943.html

Iraqi forces have met up with Hezbollah, once again, on the Iraqi-Syrian border, as the push towards Abu Kemal continues with heavy Iranian involvement, including UAV strikes.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1034875.html
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1036303.html

New Russian pontoon gear continues to arrive in Syria.

https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/662310.html

A Syrian HQ was hit by mortars near Deyr ez Zor, killing one Russian general and two colonels. Due to the accuracy of the fire, they're investigating the possibility of information about the presence of high ranking Russian officials getting leaked.'

Note at this point, with pontoon gear, front-line SpN infantry, and artillery, Russian presence around Deyr ez Zor is quite heavy.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3702931.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_432241

Some details of the recent rebel offensive in Hama province. It appears heavy use of air arty shut down the offensive, destroying rebel columns often before they even reached the front. Additional cruise missiles strikes were carried out against targets in northern Hama.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3698087.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3697417.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3695189.html

Another shot of Syrian MiG-29s upgraded to carry R-77 missiles.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1033914.html

More T-62s are being prepped for shipment to Syria.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_432792

Turkey says that the entrance of Turkish troops into Idlib has been agreed upon with Russia. It's quite likely this will be part of the future carving up of Idlib province.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3696871.html

 

[PO2GRV]

General Dunford had a briefing with Congress where much was discussed. Of note in this thread was his response about Assad 'When asked if Assad needs to go in Syria, Dunford said: "Addressing the grievances of the civil war will be necessary to have a stable political construct" which sounds a lot like a yes.'

Which begs the question what is a stable political construct and by what negotiation of states or mutual agreement of actors? It alludes to the military's aspirations on the ground going forward, of which regime change seems clear

In the same briefing he also recomended lethal armament to Ukraine, but thays for another thread

You can find commentary on the briefing along with a video here All The Revelations From Hours Of Testimony By The Pentagon's Top Uniformed Officer - The Drive

 

[Feanor]

General Dunford had a briefing with Congress where much was discussed. Of note in this thread was his response about Assad 'When asked if Assad needs to go in Syria, Dunford said: "Addressing the grievances of the civil war will be necessary to have a stable political construct" which sounds a lot like a yes.'

Which begs the question what is a stable political construct and by what negotiation of states or mutual agreement of actors? It alludes to the military's aspirations on the ground going forward, of which regime change seems clear

In the same briefing he also recomended lethal armament to Ukraine, but thays for another thread

You can find commentary on the briefing along with a video here All The Revelations From Hours Of Testimony By The Pentagon's Top Uniformed Officer - The Drive

With current political realities "Assad must go" is incompatible with stability of any kind. Dislodging him now that he is victorious would require a giant war, over what is already a wartorn country. Given that the population preferred to huddle in government refugee camps, to living under the rebels, and only under gunpoint could be prevented from fleeing rebel-held Aleppo, anyone advocating that route has little to no regard for the locals.

 

[ngatimozart]

General Dunford had a briefing with Congress where much was discussed. Of note in this thread was his response about Assad 'When asked if Assad needs to go in Syria, Dunford said: "Addressing the grievances of the civil war will be necessary to have a stable political construct" which sounds a lot like a yes.'

Which begs the question what is a stable political construct and by what negotiation of states or mutual agreement of actors? It alludes to the military's aspirations on the ground going forward, of which regime change seems clear

In the same briefing he also recomended lethal armament to Ukraine, but thays for another thread

You can find commentary on the briefing along with a video here All The Revelations From Hours Of Testimony By The Pentagon's Top Uniformed Officer - The Drive

Post war Syria will require a political and long term economic package. You have to work with what have and Assad will have to be part of that package. I totally agree with Feanor that there is no value in pushing for regime change because the consequences will most likely be hideous. Some nations believe that regime change will solve problems, but recent evidence strongly suggests that it creates far greater problems. One just has to look at the history of Iraq, Iran or Afghanistan during the last 100 years.

 

[surpreme]

The race for the oil field

After reading about the build up of the SAA in dez ezzor. Seen like it a push to get to this southern syrian area. The way SDF have move across Dez Ezzor province was quick Now Russia building a another bridge across the Euphratus river. There photos of US forces in Dez Ezzor. Things starting to heat up in this area.

 

[Feanor]

After reading about the build up of the SAA in dez ezzor. Seen like it a push to get to this southern syrian area. The way SDF have move across Dez Ezzor province was quick Now Russia building a another bridge across the Euphratus river. There photos of US forces in Dez Ezzor. Things starting to heat up in this area.

They certainly are. An ISIS flank attack has cut the road between Deyr ez Zor and Sukhna. The attach seems to mostly be light infantry and technicals, similar to their raid tactics on the Khanasser road. An SAA counter-attack is being prepped right now.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3712284.html

 

[Feanor]

Update time.

It appears Russia and Turkey are in the same camp now, for the first time Russian aircraft are reported to be using Turkish airspace to carry out strikes. It's important to note that following the recent offensive, Russia has been pounding rebel positions in Idlib, including additional Kh-101 strikes.

Putin, after negotiations with Erdogan, has said that the conditions for peace in Syria have been created.

In the meantime Turkish troops have entered Idlib, though so far it's a small force. The main force is still in Turkey.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1059549.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3715526.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí ïîñëå ïåðåãîâîðîâ ñ Ýðäîãàíîì ñîîáùèë î ñîçäàííûõ â Ñèðèè óñëîâèÿõ äëÿ çàâåðøåíèÿ âîéíû
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2870572.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÂÊÑ ÐÔ óíè÷òîæèëè â Äåéð-ýç-Çîðå è Èäëèáå êîìàíäíûå ïóíêòû "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà"* è "Äæåáõàò àí-Íóñðû"*
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3706708.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3706302.html

Some shots of the bridge the SAA is using to cross the Euphrates. Allegedly this one was set up by Russia using the PMM-2 kit recently delivered.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1060150.html
Gur Khan attacks!: СириÑ: роÑÑийÑкие ПММ-2Ðœ уже под Дейр-Ñз-Зор перебраÑывают технику
https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/98479/

A second S-400 btln has been deployed, but with only one battery of TELs (4). It's set up near Masyaf, to cover a blind spot of the S-400 unit at Khmeimeem. It's important to note that the US strike on Sha'aryat airbase was carried out along this route. The location it's set up in previously housed a Bastion-P AShM unit.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2874698.html

Russian EoD arrives in Deyr ez Zor.

Análisis Militares: Zapadores rusos para Deir ez zor (actualizado)

Russian Mi-35Ms and Syrian L-39s at the Tadmor airbase.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1054172.html

Meanwhile the Syrian Express has slowed, as three giant container ships, Sparta 1, 2, and 3, have taken over from the tiny BDKs.

https://riafan.ru/887381-siriya-kak...rabl-gigant-sparta-dostavlyaet-gruzy-v-tartus
https://prokhor-tebin.livejournal.com/1138412.html

A French military adviser was killed on the Iraqi Syrian border in ISIS held territory. Details are lacking. Some Russian sources are claiming this is evidence of western support for ISIS, but personally I'm more inclined to think he was part of the French teams that hunt for French terrorists among ISIS.

https://vz.ru/news/2017/9/24/888288.html

 

[Feanor]

Two Russian private military contractors likely affiliated with the ISIS Hunters unit have been captured by ISIS in Syria. Both seem to be connected to cossack formations. In the mean time the ISIS Hunters has threatened to kill 100 ISIS affiliated for each Russian prisoner if they're not released while offering a million dollar ransom if they are. A bizarre offer to say the least. The threat, if credible, likely involves a war crime, while the ransom constitutes an attempt to negotiate with terrorists.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_447375
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=photo-123538639_456289559/wall-123538639_446846
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_445561

EDIT: Family confirms one of the people in the video is indeed their son and is not a current service member, but a past service member who has been to Syria as part of private security contractors several times.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_447531

 

[John Fedup]

It might be a war crime but it is a tactic ISIL understands. Hard to imagine a very long line up of protesters forming over the offing of 100 ISIL vermin.

 

[supercomrade]

I don't know where the right place to post this, but I am sure you guys saw that Saudi Arabia is going to purchase the Russian S-400 on King Salman's historic visit to Moscow that is happening right now.

They signed other energy deals as well. Do you guys think that these contracts are a result of some kind of agreement in Syria's end game between Putin and King Salman?

 

[Feanor]

I don't know where the right place to post this, but I am sure you guys saw that Saudi Arabia is going to purchase the Russian S-400 on King Salman's historic visit to Moscow that is happening right now.

They signed other energy deals as well. Do you guys think that these contracts are a result of some kind of agreement in Syria's end game between Putin and King Salman?

Oh it would be hilarious if it wasn't so depressing. S.A. follows Turkey's footsteps in trying to make nice with Russia, and immediately gets blacklisted by the UN over it's behavior in Yemen. The timing is just amazing. It's almost as if it's not a coincidence.

UN blacklists Saudi Arabia-led military coalition for killing or injuring hundreds of children in Yemen | The Independent

 

[John Fedup]

Here’s Breaking Defence’s take on the Saudi real for the S-400. I wonder if US intelligence was truly in the dark on this? Perhaps Trump’s abuse caused them to not bothering to inform him. As for Turkey and Saudi Arabia being valued allies, hardly, they have been sliding down for years now. They may not be good customers any more as well.

https://breakingdefense.com/2017/10...ay-theyll-buy-russias-top-plane-killer-s-400/

 

[PO2GRV]

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/...surrender.html?referer=http://m.huffpost.com/
ISIS continues to unwind as up to 1000 militants have surrendered (cumulative, not at once) to Kurds stating their governors have instructed them to do so supposedly to be taken prisoner instead of Iranian backed Shiite militias to avoid being executed. Many militants are claiming they were just cooks or clerks and didnt fight on front lines to the disbelieve of Kurdish interrogators. The article reads that barely any fighters surrendered after Mosul but that more and more do so after each subsequent town falls

U.S., Turkey Mutually Suspend Visa Services After Arrest Of Consulate Employee | HuffPost
However this windfall doesnt seem to affect US-Turkish rrlations after authorities in Ankara arrested an employee from the US consulate for being a Gulenist and somehow involved with the coup attempt. The US in response has scaled back visas and Turkey retaliated in kind. I dont know how often these little spats came up during the Cold War years but it feels they're coming more and more often lately. Russia has a great opportunity here to widen the cracks beginning to form in NATO

 

[Feanor]

It appears the Iraqis have taken Kirkuk as a response to the Kuridsh referendum. Fighting was minor and sporadic at best, and a number of Kurdish units loyal to Talabani abandoned their positions.

This is a pretty serious blow against an independent Kurdistan. Additionally, Turkish and Iranian forces are massed on the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3746725.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3746277.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3745648.html

 

[Ranger25]

US DOD warns against Iraqi push

The US train and equip mission could be curtailed with continued used moves against the Peshmerga forces accrokding to DOD spokesman

https://www.defensenews.com/congres...uk-and-pentagon-mulls-ending-train-and-equip/


Interesting to note McCain noted the presence of Iranian forces and warned of consequences if there

 

[kato]

The US train and equip mission could be curtailed with continued used moves against the Peshmerga forces accrokding to DOD spokesman

Germany has relaunched its train-and-equip mission for Peshmerga at Arbil, currently training 400 Kurdish soldiers (following consultations with both the Kurdish government and with US officials on how they'd handle their mission). The mission was suspended for a week from Oct 13 to Oct 22 due to the Iraqi advance on Kirkuk.