War Against ISIS

the concerned

Active Member
I feel that what the west should be looking to do now is create and fund a government in exile rather than funding any further rebel groups. I truly feel that the rebels can not win and are prolonging the suffering. If we can convince as many as we can to stop the fighting militarily the sooner the war will end plus with Assad in control of the whole country it would be easier to hold him more accountable for his actions.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Looking at Iraq and to a lesser extent Afghanistan; the West does not have a good record in funding credible governments in exile. With regards to Syria a government in exile would mean nothing if it consisted mainly of Sunnis who only tell their their Western and Arab backers what they want to hear. The Alawites and other minorities must be included and the interests of ordinary Syrians must be the priority; not the government in exile and its foreign backers; all of whom have their own agendas.

If Assad is to be held accountable for his actions, so should others who also have blood on their hands, including other governments and individuals for their policies not only in Syria but also places like Yemen. The real question is what a post war Syria will look like? After all that has happened Syria will never be the same again irrespective of how long more Assad stays in power.

It was bizarre to watch Samantha Power at the UN conveniently forget to mention all the massacres done in America's name | The Independent
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
I feel that what the west should be looking to do now is create and fund a government in exile rather than funding any further rebel groups. I truly feel that the rebels can not win and are prolonging the suffering. If we can convince as many as we can to stop the fighting militarily the sooner the war will end plus with Assad in control of the whole country it would be easier to hold him more accountable for his actions.
To be honest I think what the west should be looking to do is trying to step back from their obviously failed attempt to get Assad out of power via proxys like "moderate" rebels.

I thought poorly of this whole idea in the first place since it seems that nothing good has ever come from violently overthrowing any govenment in the area and Assad, bad as might be, still provided some standart of safety and stability. The living standard and the excess of freedom in Syria prior to this nasty war was pretty good by middle eastern standards.

But I guess from a strategic point of view its seems just to be too good of an opportunity to walk away from. Dragging this war out for as long as possible will weaken all their opponents, Iran, Hezbollah and Syria will loose menpower, money and equipment, same to some extent applies to russia which seems to be our new old enemy (at least in germany).
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Hmmm, but do you see them weakening?

Also, can't you identify any real threats to you other than the distant big bad bear? Any threats that Merkel put next door to you by any chance?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The living standard and the excess of freedom in Syria prior to this nasty war was pretty good by middle eastern standards.
Syria wasn't democratic but it was secular. The same can't be said of the West's allies in the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia [where women can't drive or work] . Also, unlike Saudi Arabia, which exports wahhabism [an ideology IS shares], Syria wasn't interested in exporting Baathism anywhere.

Dragging this war out for as long as possible will weaken all their opponents, Iran, Hezbollah and Syria
But is it in the West's interests to weaken Iran? Israel and the Gulf states would certainly like to weaken Iran; this in line with their own interests but it certainly doesn't make the region more stable. In the long term, weakening Iran will have an impact Iran's ability to aid Syria and Iraq [Iran was there way before others got involved] to defeat IS and that won't be to anyone's benefit [with the exception of the Gulf states]. We also need to bear in mind that what happens in Syria not only has an impact in Iraq but also the Lebanon and of course Turkey.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Hmmm, but do you see them weakening?

Also, can't you identify any real threats to you other than the distant big bad bear? Any threats that Merkel put next door to you by any chance?
Well, I'm not too excited about the way that our governemnt handled the refugee situation but when it comes to this sort of things you have to take into account how the general population of germany sees everything that could be consideres "right wing" as a straight call back to the days of the NSDAP.

I guess we as a society suffer some form of PTSD which dosn't allow for an objective view on this kind of topics, although there is quite an opposition now after the events on new years eve last year and all that followed.

Russia is just a distraction I guess. But it works. People are genuinley afraif of evil Putin but don't think there is too much to worry about when it comes to islamist extremism.

Syria wasn't democratic but it was secular. The same can't be said of the West's allies in the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia [where women can't drive or work] . Also, unlike Saudi Arabia, which exports wahhabism [an ideology IS shares], Syria wasn't interested in exporting Baathism anywhere.
That's what I meant. For middle eastern standards it was quite a modern society.


But is it in the West's interests to weaken Iran? Israel and the Gulf states would certainly like to weaken Iran; this in line with their own interests but it certainly doesn't make the region more stable. In the long term, weakening Iran will have an impact Iran's ability to aid Syria and Iraq [Iran was there way before others got involved] to defeat IS and that won't be to anyone's benefit [with the exception of the Gulf states]. We also need to bear in mind that what happens in Syria not only has an impact in Iraq but also the Lebanon and of course Turkey.
Well, at least US republicans have made no secret about their hatred towards Iran. There has been progress made towards a normalization of the relationships between iran and the west, but I think a lot of people still don't like them too much.

In addition, this whole ordeal can partly be viewed as a proxy war between saudi arabia and iran (including the conflict with yemen). With the west so firmly invested into saudi arabia and the decades of sanctions towards Iran I find it pretty simple to spot who's side the west is on. I can't see them angering Saudi Arabia too much by supporting Iran in the same way.

Also, when you talk about stability as a strategic goal of the west you must ask the question how the hell the western politics so far would be able to accomplish this. If I look hat Libya I thing the country and region was much more stable with al gaddafi on top and I would imagine the same outcome in an post Assad Syria.

Daesh also wouldn't just cease to exsist when the Assad regime falls and if the splintered Opposition which would take power would be able to put up an organized and unified response to this threat is at least questinable. I think Assad and the SAA has the better chance to defeat ISIS once the rebellion has ended and especially if the west would ensure that their allies would stop supporting them.

Which leads to the last point, daesh... I don't see the west putting too much effort in destroying them. As mentioned, their allies still keep financing and equiping them. In addition one would assume that the USAF would be able to inflict more damage on them. Yet, after years of bombing they still seem to be perfectly operational and able to pull off successfull offensives.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

ISIS is still pushing towards cutting off T4 but it seems that the situation is stabilizing. ISIS fighters are very close to the base perimeter. Russian Msta-B howitzers have been sighted in the base but I doubt there are any Russian artillerymen left there. And the photo shows one of the guns being used in a direct fire role. It was previously noted that the SAA has a hard time employing indirect-fire weapons effectively. There's also footage, allegedly from the counter-attack near T-4, of a TOS-1 in use.

Meanwhile the US have destroyed some of the equipment the SAA abandoned in Palmyra with airstrikes.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3132745.html
Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии авиабазу Т-4 под Пальмирой оборонÑÑŽÑ‚ роÑÑийÑкие "ÐœÑта-Б"
colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3133506.html
Т4 - Военный Блог
СШРнанеÑли удар по Пальмире - Военный Блог

The Turks have closed off access to al-Bab from the west, likely to prevent the Kurds from making a move on it. Given how passively the Turks have reacted to SAA victories in Aleppo and given the lack of any noise about the Turks from Russia, it looks like both sides are still sticking to the deal they've made. Another noteworthy detail, the Turks are using their ethnic Kirgiz militia as part of the assault force on al-Bab.

Ðль-Баб и Ракка - Colonel Cassad
"Боевые киргизы" Эрдогана штурмуют ÑирийÑкий Ðль-Баб: dambiev

Rebels forces from Aleppo that were evacuated to Idlib burned the buses used to evacuate them as a sign of protest. Personal comment: the shitty behavior from the rebel side throughout the past year to me is a clear indicator that they can't be trusted or relied upon.

Interestingly enough a list of foreigners captured in Aleppo, allegedly helping the rebels, is being circulated. The second link has the list of people and nationalities, all alleged of course.

The 4th link has an interesting chart of claimed numbers of trapped civilians in Aleppo and actual civilians exiting the city.

Боевые дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð² Иордании и другие подробноÑти - Военный Блог
ИноÑтранцы - Colonel Cassad
Борьба Ñ Ð°Ð²Ñ‚Ð¾Ð±ÑƒÑами - Colonel Cassad
Пропавшие жители - Colonel Cassad

First link - an improvised up-armoring for a BMP-1. Second link an oddly up-armored T-62.

Gur Khan attacks!: "Дело - труба!"
Gur Khan attacks!: Ðа Ñамом деле ЭТО Т-62!

4 Su-35S have left Syria. Note, 4 new ones had arrived earlier but the departure of the 4 birds that have been in Syria was delayed for some reason.

ÐŸÐµÑ€Ð²Ð°Ñ Ñ‡ÐµÑ‚Ð²ÐµÑ€ÐºÐ° Су-35С вернулаÑÑŒ из Сирии - bmpd

Interesting material but of questionable authenticity. Allegedly, these are the Syrian "moderates" gathering children near a mortar so that if counter-battery fire hits, they can use it as propaganda.

СкотÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ñторона оппозиции - Военный Блог

The Syrian government has submitted evidence of chemical weapon use by the rebels to the OPCW.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèÿ ïðåäñòàâèëà ýêñïåðòàì ÎÇÕÎ äîêàçàòåëüñòâà ïðèìåíåíèÿ áîåâèêàìè èïðèòà

There's news that a 7-year old girl was used as a suicide bomber in Damascus.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áîåâèêè èñïîëüçîâàëè ìàëåíüêóþ äåâî÷êó äëÿ ïîäðûâà ïîëèöåéñêîãî ó÷àñòêà â Äàìàñêå

Russia and Turkey suggested holding Syria talks in Kazakhstan as neutral ground.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ è Òóðöèÿ ïðåäëàãàþò ïðîâåñòè ïåðåãîâîðû ïî Ñèðèè â Êàçàõñòàíå, îáúÿâèë Ïóòèí
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
In addition, this whole ordeal can partly be viewed as a proxy war between saudi arabia and iran (including the conflict with yemen).
I've been pointing this out for years. Of course's it's proxy war. The Gulf states want to Assad gone because his departure would further isolate and weaken Iran. With Assad gone; Israel can put off having negotiations over returning the Golan and like the Gulf states, Israel would like to see Iran with one less ally. Personally I would have thought that Israel would rather see Assad remain because they know what to expect from him. They know that his main agenda is regime survival; not going to war with Israel or attempting to regain by force the Golan.

Also, when you talk about stability as a strategic goal of the west you must ask the question how the hell the western politics so far would be able to accomplish this. If I look hat Libya I thing the country and region was much more stable with al gaddafi on top and I would imagine the same outcome in an post Assad Syria.
This is a question that should be asked of the hawks in the U.S. and Israel; as well as the Gulf states. They're under the gagaland/wolkenkuckucksheim impression that Iran poses the greatest danger and that Iran must be further isolated. I'm sure they see benefits in isolating Iran and even going to war with Iran [should a strike be launched on Iran's nuclear facilities] but what's for sure is that the people who live in the region won't benefit and the region will become a bigger mess.

In addition one would assume that the USAF would be able to inflict more damage on them. Yet, after years of bombing they still seem to be perfectly operational and able to pull off successfull offensives.
Easier said than done but there also has to be a long term plan in place to defeat IS ideologically. No point launching thousands of sorties and killing thousands of IS people if IS can still draw support from people both in the region and outside. Until that happens and as long as IS's enemies remain undivided; IS will survive and the people in the region will continue to suffer.

I've pointed this out before but the U.S. needs to use whatever leverage it has to pressure the Iraqi government to ensure that in areas liberated by IS; there are job opportunities for the locals and that their basic needs are met; irrespective of the fact that they're Sunnis. Al Jazeera yesterday had footage of people on the outskirts of Mosul struggling to get food. What are the Gulf states doing? Why aren't Qatar's C-17 lifting humanitarian supplies there to Mosul. The sad fact is that the Gulf states couldn't care less. They're more concerned with Iran.
 
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Waseb Al-Qisuin

New Member
Well, I'm not too excited about the way that our governemnt handled the refugee situation but when it comes to this sort of things you have to take into account how the general population of germany sees everything that could be consideres "right wing" as a straight call back to the days of the NSDAP.

I guess we as a society suffer some form of PTSD which dosn't allow for an objective view on this kind of topics, although there is quite an opposition now after the events on new years eve last year and all that followed.

Russia is just a distraction I guess. But it works. People are genuinley afraif of evil Putin but don't think there is too much to worry about when it comes to islamist extremism.
I would argue that a very large part of the population is very tired of being associated with the NSDAP and actually does not buy into that. There is a portion though, mainly in the major cities, that truly has this sense of guilt. And there is of course this block formed by all of the system journalists and politicians who would constantly guilt shame the population if it fits some cause (refugee crisis and post refugee crisis was extreme). Many of these established do mostly form the anti Russia/Putin corner too.

As for Merkel, she has for many years pursued policies that appeal more socialdemocratic voters, she knew the average conservative would remain loyal, voting more right than CDU/CSU was no option. The Refugee crisis and merkels action made it clear that she positioned the CDU completely socialdemocratic, weakening the original socialdemocrats and opening room for a new popular conservative Party/right wing in the center-right.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
I would argue that a very large part of the population is very tired of being associated with the NSDAP and actually does not buy into that. There is a portion though, mainly in the major cities, that truly has this sense of guilt. And there is of course this block formed by all of the system journalists and politicians who would constantly guilt shame the population if it fits some cause (refugee crisis and post refugee crisis was extreme). Many of these established do mostly form the anti Russia/Putin corner too.

As for Merkel, she has for many years pursued policies that appeal more socialdemocratic voters, she knew the average conservative would remain loyal, voting more right than CDU/CSU was no option. The Refugee crisis and merkels action made it clear that she positioned the CDU completely socialdemocratic, weakening the original socialdemocrats and opening room for a new popular conservative Party/right wing in the center-right.
From the way you write it appearce as if you live in germany / are german?
How ever, the highlited part is just wrong.

Merkel is an opportunistic chancelor no doubt, but to say that she leaned towards socialdemorcatic policies is wrong, but I guess this goes a bit too far off topic for this thread.

How ever, things are happening in germany. In Berlin an unknown terrorist drove a truck through a christmas market in Berlin. 12 Dead ans 48 wounded from which 14 are still in critical condition:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-market-attack-suspect-pakistan-live-coverage

Police arrested a refugee shortly after and declared the situation to be under control but meanwhile the suspect got released. The original driver of the truck was a polish man who was found shot dead inside the drivers cabin. At this point it seems that an armed terrorist is on the run in Berlin. From the beheavior of the police they seem to suspect another attack, a lot of cops patrol in civil disguise and visible police is switching positions every 30ish minutes.

Daesh meanwhile took credit for the attack.
 

Waseb Al-Qisuin

New Member
From the way you write it appearce as if you live in germany / are german?
How ever, the highlited part is just wrong.

Merkel is an opportunistic chancelor no doubt, but to say that she leaned towards socialdemorcatic policies is wrong, but I guess this goes a bit too far off topic for this thread.

How ever, things are happening in germany. In Berlin an unknown terrorist drove a truck through a christmas market in Berlin. 12 Dead ans 48 wounded from which 14 are still in critical condition:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-market-attack-suspect-pakistan-live-coverage

Police arrested a refugee shortly after and declared the situation to be under control but meanwhile the suspect got released. The original driver of the truck was a polish man who was found shot dead inside the drivers cabin. At this point it seems that an armed terrorist is on the run in Berlin. From the beheavior of the police they seem to suspect another attack, a lot of cops patrol in civil disguise and visible police is switching positions every 30ish minutes.

Daesh meanwhile took credit for the attack.
I'll try to make it short as it will go too off topic. She is not a union worker socialdemocrat and is a strict budgetary conservative and remained that in the grand coalition with the SPD, but she took key issues from them and even from the Green Party and also a Major issue like the 'Energiewende', all to such an extent that voters enabled first double coalitions between the greens and the blacks on a federal level (which was a really big thing back then).

Now on the topic
I wonder if the reports of the 14 foreign intelligence officers captured inside a bunker by syrian special forces in east aleppo are genuine, a list of names has been put forward by a syrian official and spread through some more or less questionable sites and even RT and Sputnik do not appear to have touched that story. On the other hand it is a specific claim.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
That 14 name story gets on my nerves. Where are the mugshots and the photos of the IDs?

At first I was starting to believe it was just a low effort hoax/propaganda piece of news but then I saw the UN ambassador relay the names to the reporters yesterday. Just weird.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
That 14 name story gets on my nerves. Where are the mugshots and the photos of the IDs?

At first I was starting to believe it was just a low effort hoax/propaganda piece of news but then I saw the UN ambassador relay the names to the reporters yesterday. Just weird.
A common theory on Russian sites during the siege of Aleppo was that one of the reasons the west was working so hard to prevent Aleppo from being taken is that foreign military and intelligence officers were in Aleppo. Additionally, the Russian MoD made a similar claim. While I have serious doubts about the presence of Israeli or US military officers, I would be very surprised if both countries didn't have some sort of human intelligence assets inside Aleppo, and inside the "moderates" that were defending it. Of course the presence of Saudi, Qatar, or Turkish personnel wouldn't surprise me at all.
 

Cadredave

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Just a comment on saluting officers in the field. Officers, especially senior officers, are high value targets and hence the saluting of officers on the front line would give away their importance to enemy snipers making them a target.

During the North African desert campaign in WW2, a senior British General was visiting General "Tiny" Freyberg VC Commanding General of the 2nd NZ Armoured Division, which was part of the British 8th Army. They were observing a Kiwi patrol coming back in and the British General said to Tiny "don't your troops salute you?" Tiny Freyberg's reply was typical of him "If you wave at them they'll wave back".
Exactly Ngati we NZ Army still do not salute high ranking officers in the field or on Operations today the only place where we do pay compliments to visiting Officers is when they visit our FOB's saluting doe's not make a soldier.

CD
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
With the agreement of Turkey, Russia has apparently deployed a unit of Sunni Muslims [comprising Chechens and other Muslims from Russia] to Syria. Deployed in Aleppo, the intention is to have this unit deployed at checkpoints to prevent any abuses done of fleeing refugees by Syrian units. This information comes from the Russian analyst in this video.

[Inside Story - What Are President Putin's Plans For Syria?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c2U7xkl-WQ

Some here - including myself - have questioned how much control Russia has over Assad. Judging by recent events, it would seen that Russia has got a very strong measure of control over Assad; either that or Assad realises that it's in his interests to have as few problems as possible with his Russian backers. Given the amount of resources the Russians has poured into Syria and the risks it's taking; it is to be expected that it wants a compliant Assad. No doubt some in Russia will remember their experience in Afghanistan; where despite all the support given, Russia [then the Soviet Union] never really had full control of the Afghan communist leadership in Kabul.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Turks just lost a bunch of vehicles at al-Bab, including 2 or 3 Leo-2 tanks, an ACV-15 IFV, and a bulldozer.. ISIS appears to have recaptured the hospital, with a VBIED used to open the defenses. On just December 21st Turkey lost 14 KIA and 33 wounded in the battle for al-Bab. At this point I can't help but wonder if the Turks would have taken smaller casualties if they just used their own infantry for the offensive.

Танки Leopard 2 в руках "ИÑламÑкого ГоÑудартва" - bmpd
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
They got spanked hard. ISIS also released a video of two turkish soldiers being burned alive.

NSFW:
https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/8120273412

Also ISIS got some equipment, too. At least two Leopards it seems.
https://southfront.org/isis-releases-more-photos-with-captured-destroyed-turkish-military-equipment/

And of course some Leopards have been blown up by ATGMs, I've seen some videos recently. I'm pretty sure they can't use the captured ones properly but it would be surreal if they could use them as VBIEDs. Can you imagine a Leo2 filled with explosives rolling fullspeed towards your position?
 

surpreme

Member
Oh what a surprise what happen to Turkey I'm not surprised. ISIS strike back hard to let Turkey know it not going be a cake walk against them. ISIS is a battle hardened force so don't count them out yet. What shock me is that ISIS captured couple good tanks. It's amazing how some talk so highly of Turkey and look what happen now.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
And of course some Leopards have been blown up by ATGMs,
In one photo the turret has blown off and in another the main gun barrel has been detached. Makes me wonder if large IEDs were used.

I'm not very knowledgeable on armour so perhaps someone can help answer this : can stuff like Kornet, Konkurs and Metis penetrate the fronts and sides of the turrets of the Turk Leopard 2s? On 2A6s probably not but what about the Leopard 2 variants used by the Turks.

It's amazing how some talk so highly of Turkey and look what happen now.
One can't draw any conclusions as to the competence or effectiveness of any army based on incidents like this. There are other armies which are more experienced and better funded than the Turk one but have also experienced their share of cock ups. Also, until we have definite answers as to what led to the incident [incompetence, inexperience, flawed tactics, no infantry support, etc] one simply can't judge a whole army based on a single or even several incidents such as this. IS may be a ''battle hardened force'' [as you put it] but technically so is the Turkish army; having spent several decades on counter insurgency ops against the Kurds.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
I saw this list of turkish recent losses and the causes. I have no idea how reliable it is
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/5jw89a/taf_armor_loses_in_albab_in_recent_clashes/

According to that it's mostly ATGM hits disabling the vehicles and of course some were abandoned.

Geopolitically I think it is better if Turkey pays dearly for Al Bab. It may make them stop their incursion into Syria there and Erdogan will understand the price to be paid even against militants. And of course anti-regime and ISIS fighters killing each other is beneficial to the Assad regime so that's good imo.

Those suicide attacks can sometimes totally turn the tide, it's really eye-opening. Maybe modern militaries should invest into suicide combat drone versions of the conventional combat drones they are developing. It is important that they look exactly the same, too.
 
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