War Against ISIS

STURM

Well-Known Member
That site is pro-russian. Why did the western journalists immediately claim it was government shelling?
For some, the narrative is that the bad chaps are always the Russians and the Assad government. Others can do no wrong, are only involved because of concerns for the well being of ordinary Syrians and have a monopoly on truth. CNN has a video of the head of the CIA talking about how the Russians can't be trusted and how the Russians and Syrians are responsible for some many innocent civilians being killed. There 's no mention of how flawed Western policy has contributed to the mess that is now Syria and how some of the so call ''moderates'' [the ones who it was hoped would defeat Assad and IS and turn Syria into a Western friendly democratic state] have turned out to be not so ''moderate'' as initially portrayed.

No doubt the Russians have blood on their hands [who hasn't] but the same people who are so critical of the Russians now were largely quiet when Russia laid waste to Grozny and other parts of Chechnya in the 1990's. Back then of course it wasn't in the interest of the West to make to much of a fuss over civilian deaths in Chechnya. If civilians were still being killed despite Russia only targeting IS and not other rebel groups [the so call nice chaps]; would there be so much criticism over Russia's role? If Russia [and Iran] hadn't gotten involved, would the West be closer to defeating Assad and IS and seeing the ''moderates'' gain control?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Hard not to agree with your post. There is going to be a significant population reduction in this region because of many stupid decisions by many players. The irony is this result is going to end up as a positive.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
We keep hearing about the ''rebels'' in Aleppo but most media accounts don't mention who these rebels are. According to Patrick Cockburn ''only about 20 per cent of the 10,000 fighters are Nusra, it is they - along with their allies in Ahrar al-Sham - who are leading the resistance''. I'm assuming that IS would make up for a small portion, with the bulk of the rebels being what some call the ''moderates'' or the FSA. It will also be interesting to know which rebels have been responsible for preventing civilians from leaving and whether the ''moderates'' - out of sheer necessity - have cooperated or coordinated their operations with IS, Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham.

This is why everything you’ve read about the wars in Syria and Iraq could be wrong | The Independent
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
The mainstream media ironically represent the minority, they got routed along with Hillary and the other warmongerers that wanted to escalate the situation because things were not going their way. The only thing that will be left will be the burden of responsibility of the US for arming islamist groups like al-Zinki, who are Nusra affiliates and beheaders by the way.

This goes against US interests because Al Nusra is an Al Qaeda affiliate. 9/11
Even more attention was brought to this when they beheaded a palestinian boy and proudly showcased the head in Aleppo. Personally I believe the jewish lobby plays a serious role in these anti-american policies, strengthening ultra-radical sunnis is a guarantee of (1) an obliterated Syria, (2) inter-arab slaughter, (3) constant USA involvement supporting some radical islamists and bombing others, like Sysiphus :D I have to admit, Israel is playing chess while the others are playing checkers, they are always ahead of the curve.

(And let's not even speak of the refugee flows cause by all this, which is my first priority when it comes to my country.)

Thankfully there is light at the end of the tunnel, today a score of towns struck a deal with the syrian regime. There is serious momentum. I am just afraid about Erdogan's rogue state causing more chaos where there was none. The kurds would have taken care of ISIS in that territory, the USA/NATO should have forced him to stay out of Syria but that would bring stability and a quicker end to the war, we can't have that, it seems. For some reason.

And we have a NATO member and important USA ally whipping the kurds in the back while USA is prodding them to move towards Raqqa. :eek:nfloorl:

All this is entertaining and interesting at least. But I miss gazzzwp's concerns about how the weak russian economy can sustain the deployment, it has been a while.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The Aleppo pocket continues to shrink, as the SAA takes neighborhood after neighborhood. Some rebel counter-attacks have been attempted but they're a desperate and ultimately futile measure. Both the military and diplomatic efforts to save the rebels have failed, and there's a good chance they'll be gone before Trump takes office.

Meanwhile a Russian field hospital allegedly set up for local civilians was hit by a rebel mortar strike killing two female servicemembers. And a Russian colonel (commander of the 5th Guards Tanks Bde, which fought in Donbass not too long ago, closing the Debal'tsevo pocket) died in Syria also killed by rebel mortar fire. The two medical personnel were from the Birobidzhan military hospital.

The links contain massive quantities of photos.

Russian EOD is being deployed to Aleppo.

Ð’ Ðлеппо погиб роÑÑийÑкий военный Ñоветник - Colonel Cassad
Штурм Ðлеппо. 06.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïîãèáøèå â Àëåïïî ìåäñåñòðû ïðèáûëè â Ñèðèþ èç áèðîáèäæàíñêîãî âîåííîãî ãîñïèòàëÿ
РоÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑлужащаÑ-медик погибла под обÑтрелом боевиков в Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин
Ðовые потери в Сирии - Берлога Бронемедведа
Фото того гоÑÐ¿Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ð»Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ñле обÑтрела - Берлога Бронемедведа
Штурм Ðлеппо. 05.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Штурм Ðлеппо. 04.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad
«РоÑÑийÑкие Ñаперы направлены в Сирию Ð´Ð»Ñ Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð¼Ð¸Ð½Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ðлеппо» в блоге «ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ Флот» - Сделано у наÑ

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs has stated that any rebels who don't leave Aleppo will be destroyed.

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/464187

Civilians exiting rebel-held areas in Aleppo. This comes after Russia accused the west of not doing anything to help the civilians in Aleppo.

On a personal note, it's important to note that Russia is indeed bringing in humanitarian aid, but the quantities are limited, and it's certainly a secondary effort compared to the actual war.

Выход гражданÑких из ВоÑточного Ðлеппо - Военный Блог
Беженцы - Военный Блог
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ìèíîáîðîíû ÐÔ îáâèíèëè ñòðàíû Çàïàäà â òîì, ÷òî îíè íå ïîìîãàþò æèòåëÿì ñèðèéñêîãî Àëåïïî

The assault on Sirte in Libya is finished, casting doubts on the future of ISIS in Libya.

Штурм Сирта закончилÑÑ - Colonel Cassad

The battle for Mosul continues, with questionable success. The Iraqis are still attempting frontal pushes from the east, which are turning into a meat grinder battle with mounting casualties. Meanwhile the Kurds are not into a hurry to commit, likely they are waiting for Iraqi armies from the south and west to approach.

Interestingly enough some Soviet-purchased pontoon bridges from the Saddam era are in play by the Iraqi army.

The third link is Iraqi AF around Mosul.

Битва за МоÑул 05.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Gur Khan attacks!: «ÐбрамÑÑ‹» идут на МоÑул по ÑоветÑким переправам
ВВС Ирака, МоÑул - Берлога Бронемедведа

Al-Tal near Damascus has surrendered, the latest in a series of rebel enclaves to fall.

Meanwhile in Western Ghouta, the rebels have handed over a lot of weapons and vehicles as part of the surrender. The SAA got 7 tanks, 2 ZSU-34-4s, 11 BMPs, and 60 ZU-23-2s.

КапитулÑÑ†Ð¸Ñ Ðль-Ð¢Ð°Ð»Ñ - Colonel Cassad
Трофеи Западной Гуты - Colonel Cassad

Around al-Bab, there is only a few hundred meters between SAA and Turkish-backed forces. Yet there doesn't seem to be fighting even thought the Turkish backed "rebels" are theoretically FSA fighters.

100 метров до войны - Военный Блог

T-55 and BMP-1 upgrades in Syria.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии взÑлиÑÑŒ за модернизацию наиболее маÑÑовых танков
Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии замечена Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð²ÐµÑ€ÑÐ¸Ñ ÑˆÑ‚ÑƒÑ€Ð¼Ð¾Ð²Ñ‹Ñ… БМП

Some Syrian military personnel have received Russian state medals.

Ðаграда - Colonel Cassad

Russia loses another jet off of the Kuznetsov due to another aerofinisher failure. It's important to understand that current Russian carrier ops are the most intense, probably in the entire history of the VMF. And it appears that the carrier deck crew is not ready.

Еще оÐÐ¿Ð¾Ñ‚ÐµÑ€Ñ - Colonel Cassad

Azerbaijan blocked an Il-76 flight to Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àçåðáàéäæàí íå ïðîïóñòèë ëåòåâøèé â Ñèðèþ ðîññèéñêèé Èë-76

Some new Russian EW gear meant to suppress remote-detonated IEDs.

ИÑÐ¿Ñ‹Ñ‚Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð² боевых уÑловиÑÑ… новой военной техники в Сирии - Военный Блог

Interesting discussion of a recent White Helmets video showing them doing the mannequin challenge.

https://www.bellingcat.com/resource...no-thing-good-fake-publicity-stunts-go-wrong/

An article on a new type of ISIS suicide bomber. Given the role of VBIEDs in all recent ISIS offensives, this is significant.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/12/01/inghimasi-secret-isis-tactic-designed-digital-age/

An improvised Iraqi tank using a S-60 AA gun, an improvised armored turret, and a T-55 chassis. Honestly a viable fire support vehicle.

Gur Khan attacks!: ИракÑкий танк "Тип 57"

Russian chemical weapons investigation in Syria implicates ISIS.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/11/30/russias-chemical-weapon-attack-investigation-syria/
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Kerry's meeting Lavrov soon in Germany to discuss getting humanitarian aid in and allowing civilians and rebels to leave. There's been so much talk about the trapped rebels and about them being allowed to leave but unfortunately there's hardly any mention of who these rebels are. Will checkpoints manned by Syrian troops allow Nusra and IS rebels to leave or will any Nusra and IS people actually choose to leave? Highly doubtful. For that matter, what is the policy of the U.S. and others [who have long been pressing for rebels to be allowed to leave] on any Nusra and IS people trapped in Aleppo?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kerry's meeting Lavrov soon in Germany to discuss getting humanitarian aid in and allowing civilians and rebels to leave. There's been so much talk about the trapped rebels and about them being allowed to leave but unfortunately there's hardly any mention of who these rebels are. Will checkpoints manned by Syrian troops allow Nusra and IS rebels to leave or will any Nusra and IS people actually choose to leave? Highly doubtful. For that matter, what is the policy of the U.S. and others [who have long been pressing for rebels to be allowed to leave] on any Nusra and IS people trapped in Aleppo?
So far regime policy is that any rebels who want out of a pocket are allowed to leave but with only one piece of small arms per person, no heavy weapons or vehicles, and the transportation provided are government buses that take them to Idlib province. They also can't take substantial amounts of money or gold with them. Not particularly attractive if your goal is anything other then saving your own skin. Groups around Damascus have taken these deals because they're completely and utterly screwed. They're surrounded, they have limited supplies, and no reinforcements, and for most of them defeat is a matter of when not if. It's also important to note that typically, at least in the south, there is also an amnesty offer for any rebels not implicated in war crimes. This means that when those pockets surrender only part of them choose to continue fighting, while another significant chunk take the amnesty and avoid having to go anywhere.

Personally I think they will happily extend the offer to leave to Nusra because picking them out of built up urban pockets is hard and because they'd be leaving without heavy weapons or financial resources.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Well, when Assad can keep up the pace in which he gained ground in eastern Allepo there wont be much time to call for an ceasefire before there is no opposition left.

I realy didn't expect the pocket to collaps this fast but the SAA just seems to keep pushing and the rebel held territory has decreased steadily over the last days.

Any prediction of you guys how long the opposition will be able to hold on?
Are there any reasons to believe the rebels actualy have any chance to turn the tides? I can't realy imagine them to break out of the pocket and reestablish a supply route... this battle seems to be lost for them...
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
A ceasefire was announced by the russians to allow the civilians to get to safety supposedly. In reality, I think they just allow the western powers to save face. There is only a small territory left for the SAA to storm and declare Aleppo liberated, it's actually kinda funny, this ceasefire :D

I think the plan is to have Aleppo cleared by the year's end. Too good morale boost to start the new year like that. You can't miss this opportunity. The russians are also deploying some Tsetsens there for security. I guess they intend to redeploy those elite syrian troops on other fronts as quickly as possible and not get bogged down with manning checkpoints?

But around Palmyra ISIS have stormed some positions and are trying to surround the city. They are being bombed of course so it's a matter of time for their offensive to run out of steam. Hopefully.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
A ceasefire was announced by the russians to allow the civilians to get to safety supposedly. In reality, I think they just allow the western powers to save face. There is only a small territory left for the SAA to storm and declare Aleppo liberated, it's actually kinda funny, this ceasefire :D

I think the plan is to have Aleppo cleared by the year's end. Too good morale boost to start the new year like that. You can't miss this opportunity. The russians are also deploying some Tsetsens there for security. I guess they intend to redeploy those elite syrian troops on other fronts as quickly as possible and not get bogged down with manning checkpoints?

But around Palmyra ISIS have stormed some positions and are trying to surround the city. They are being bombed of course so it's a matter of time for their offensive to run out of steam. Hopefully.
The Chechens are an MVD unit being deployed to Khmeimeem for security purposes. Given their considerable combat experience, it's not unlikely they will show up elsewhere also.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
https://southfront.org/russia-deplo...-republic-of-chechnya-to-syrias-aleppo-video/

Ah, maybe you are right, I just went with what this pro-russian blog reported. It mentions Aleppo city and since the timing is 100% perfect, I went with it.

EDIT: Maybe they should send them to Palmyra so they can take care of business :D
Thank you for the link. It looks like my information was wrong. They're not MVD, they're Military Police. Military Police units have been guarding the Khmeimeem airbase for some time now, so it's likely that this is a rotation of which units go there. If the unit in question wasn't Chechen, we probably wouldn't have heard of this. That having been said, when Russia helped Syria clear out Palmyra, a Russian camp was set up there for the sappers, military advisers, and arty units. It was protected by Pantsyr AA, and likely had MPs guarding it. If a similar set up pops up in Aleppo (and it will, probably with also a point for distributing aid, and a field hospital) it's not unlikely that MPs will be there as well.

EDIT: Russian media is running a story about western military advisers still trapped in Aleppo.

http://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/141113.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

In Mosul a coalition air strike on a hospital held by ISIS appears to have hit friendlies instead. An Iraqi taskforce that had pushed through the city to the hospital and was then surrounded and destroyed. As several commentators have noted, it's reminiscent of scenes from Grozny, winter '94-95. Massive numbers of armored vehicles without proper infantry support or coordination, trapped and destroyed in confined urban spaces.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êîàëèöèÿ âî ãëàâå ñ ÑØÀ íàíåñëà óäàð ïî ãîñïèòàëþ â Ìîñóëå, ãäå ðàñïîëàãàëñÿ øòàá ÈÃ
Ð‘Ð¾Ð¹Ð½Ñ Ð² МоÑуле - Военный Блог
Как не надо воевать - Colonel Cassad

Meanwhile there is rumor that the reason the assault on Mosul is such a mess is that the initial plan was to push ISIS out of the city and leave open a path of retreat into Syria, for them, but Iran insisted on a complete encirclement.

Иран не позволил оÑтавить коридор Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð²Ñ‹Ñ…Ð¾Ð´Ð° боевиков из МоÑула.. - Юрий ЛÑмин

ISIS has begun a massive offensive on Palmyra. Their frontal push has been unsuccessful but they've gained ground north and south, west of Palmyra with a clear intent of cutting the road. Reinforcements from Homs are reportedly en-route to Palmyra.

Note in the third link, the bottom set of humvee photos is from Mosul.

ÐаÑтупление ISIS - Военный Блог
Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ Пальмирой. 09.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad
ÐаÑтупление Халифата под Пальмирой - Colonel Cassad


Fighting in Aleppo has paused to allow several thousand civilians to leave. The second link has the final configuration prior to the humanitarian pause. It appears that recent east-west negotiations in Hamburg are behind the current pause, and the Syrians aren't so keen on letting al-Nusra out after all. Some sort of deal was reached none the less.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèéñêàÿ àðìèÿ ïðèîñòàíîâèëà áîåâûå äåéñòâèÿ â Àëåïïî èç-çà êðóïíåéøåé ãóìàíèòàðíîé îïåðàöèè
Штурм Ðлеппо. 08.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad
По ГамбургÑкому Ñчету - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ëàâðîâ è Êåððè íà ïåðåãîâîðàõ â Ãàìáóðãå îáñóäèëè ñèòóàöèþ â Àëåïïî

The French have once again carried out cruise missile strikes in Syria.

ФранцузÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ñнова применила крылатые ракеты против "Халифата" - bmpd

UN's special envoy suggested that the rebels and the Assad government resume talks.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñïåöïîñëàííèê ÎÎÍ ïðåäëîæèë âîçîáíîâèòü ìåæñèðèéñêèå ïåðåãîâîðû

British journalist, John Kantli, kidnapped in 2012 has showed up in a recent ISIS video from Mosul.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïîõèùåííûé â 2012 ãîäó áðèòàíñêèé æóðíàëèñò ïîÿâèëñÿ â íîâîì âèäåîðîëèêíÿòîì â èðàêñêîì Ìîñóëå

Rebel fighters getting amnesty.

ÐмниÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ - Военный Блог

New Russian AK optics show up in Syria.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии новейшие роÑÑийÑкие прицелы 1П87 помогают уничтожать террориÑтов

An interesting article on the nature of the regime in Syria.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/12/08/relevant-syria-syrias-regime/

Meanwhile western countries threaten additional sanctions against the supporters of Assad.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ëèäåðû øåñòè ñòðàí çàÿâèëè î âîçìîæíîñòè äîïîëíèòåëüíûõ ñàíêöèé ïðîòèâ ñòîðîííèêîâ Àñàäà
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I think the plan is to have Aleppo cleared by the year's end. Too good morale boost to start the new year like that. You can't miss this opportunity.
The plan is to recapture Aleppo and as much other areas as possible before Trumps takes over. In preparation for whatever new deals or policies the U.S. under Trump might propose or implement; Syria and Russia need to strengthen their position.

I suppose it was only a matter of time before such a report appeared. It seems many who have crossed from Aleppo into Syrian government held areas have gone missing. News such as this will play a large part in many rebels staying till the end, rather than taking the risk of leaving Aleppo and being detained.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/hundreds-men-east-aleppo-missing-161209111507380.html

Articles on the Aleppo rebels. I've asked the question here before : why do most reports on the ''rebels'' in Aleppo contain no information as to who exactly these rebels are?

''And while we know that the ‘rebels’ of eastern Aleppo have died fighting bravely, we also know that they have executed their internal enemies, slit the throats of their prisoners and that – well, since Jabhat al-Nusra is al-Qaida [and has since changed its name yet again] - they have flown passenger aircraft into very tall buildings in New York.''

''Nor does it mean that the Syrian army or the Hizballah or the Iranians or Iraqi Shiites are playing by the rules of war. In the Syrian conflict, there are no rules - except those made up on the spur of the moment for tactical military reasons - and there are no ‘good guys’ in civil wars. The battle of east Aleppo is vile and brutal. The Syrian military cannot - and does not - pretend that it has not killed civilians. Although, until recently, civilian casualties of artillery shells on western Aleppo fired by the ‘rebels’ – so constantly given that blessed anonymity by us in the press – have been almost totally ignored.''

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-conflict-rebels-jabhat-al-nusra-no-rebels-a7462986.html
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Earlier information about the road to Palmyra being cut is false. Another frontal assault on SAA positions around Palmyra appears to have failed, but ISIS also continues to pressure from the north south, behind the city, trying to cut off the forces inside. Russian helos and planes are working over time to halt the ISIS push. There's unconfirmed info of additional Tu-22M3 strikes, and possible cruise missile strikes.

Бои под Пальмирой. 10.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ ñîîáùèëè î ïðîâàëèâøåìñÿ øòóðìå áîåâèêîâ ÈÃ íà Ïàëüìèðó
#пальмирауженеÑовÑемнаш? - Берлога Бронемедведа
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/465795

A Syrian MiG-23 fell in Homs. Some claim it was shot down, but the official line seems to be technical failure.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èñòðåáèòåëü ÌèÃ-23 ñèðèéñêèõ ÂÂÑ ðàçáèëñÿ â ïðîâèíöèè Õîìñ

The assault on Aleppo has been halted, and reportedly 50 000 civilians exited the city over the last two days. Low-key exchanges of fire continue here and there.

Штурм Ðлеппо. 10.12.2016 - Colonel Cassad

The Turks have begun the assault on al-Bab. Despite earlier Kurdish and SAA movements in that direction, it appears to be left to the Turks. Warning , graphic images in the link.

Штурм Ðль-Баба - Colonel Cassad

Turkish Leopards in action around al-Bab.

Турецкий Leopard 2 "в деле" - bmpd

Some photos of Russian MPs in Khmeimeem. The Chechen deployment will likely be a rotation for a unit like this one.

Ð*оÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° авиабзе Хмеймим в Сирии - bmpd

Russian carrier ops continue despite the loss of now two planes.

Ð’ процеÑÑе - Берлога Бронемедведа
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Wow the regime lost Palmyra, some oil fields and a lot of territory, the front is at T4 airbase from what I understand. Lots of equipment fell in ISIS hands. What a swift rout.

I think there was a big reconnaissance blunder if all these thousands of islamists were not detected and bombed early. This is what worked till now.
 
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