USN CVN deployed to Korean Waters.Tensions At a high as Pyongyang on "brink of war."

rip

New Member
No country in its right senses would start WWIII. This would mean that the "losing" side, or for that matter both sides (China & US) would ultimately use their nuclear weapons. The former USSR realised this (remember the Cuban missile threats during Pres. Kennedy's time?), and China presently acknowldges the fact that the US is a prominent nuclear power. What could probably happen are the continuing skirmishess in the South China Sea, East China Sea/Sea of Japan; and eventually waters in the Western Pacific. The biggest fear now is rougue states like North Korea would continue to antangonise South Korea & Japan with the hope that its ally - China would always support its psychopathic actions. As of now, China & the US can clearly see the serious consequences of any miscalculation. Hope this will continue at least for the next 20 years.
Like I said, everybody has their own agendas and they are pursuing them rationally with the exception of North Korea.

China is a power house as Beastmaster has said. But it still acts like it is fighting it way up like it was an underdog. I know how it looks out at the rest of the world. It looks in such a way as if it just has to be hostile towards it so it is not a surprise that it always finds justification for that view. Looking at its past two hundred years it is not unreasonable to see why they do. Part of the problem however is their distorted evaluation of their own history. Remember that all the history which is currently allowed to be taught within China must serve the purpose of justifying the current governments hold on power. In a very real sence the Chinese are strangers to themselves. Why?

Though the current government uses the totally alien non-Chinese philosophy of Communism as its center premise, its power to rule lays upon a much larger and older foundation of Confucianism. There is a vast difference between the Philosophies of the East and West but the most fundamental and the most irreconcilable are the final goals of the two approaches to human civilization wish to attain and not in their methods. The Confucian goal is the achievement of an eternal stable social order and harmony while the Western is dynamic chaotic progress and expansion (the barbarians in the classical Chinese view). The Confucian society tends to look mostly inward attempting to avoid troubling contradictions and the Western looks outward seeking knowledge and opportunity.
Today the current paradigm of Chinese thought as to its interpretation of its history is one that sees China being destroyed by advance western powers and treated badly, which to some extent is true but the real reason for the disintegration of the Chinese state and the devastating pain that followed to its people, was primarily caused by a profound universal rot from within. In the modern sence, we would call it a failed state, for the center could not hold. In the pursuit of harmony, the Chinese society lost its ability to change and adapt to an ever changing world. It eventually became so weak internally that all it took was the touch of a feather to bring it tumbling down. In this case the touch of the English Empire that was one tenth its size, which had only half of its history, and was in fact far less materially wealthy at the time. Curse those evil white devils. But is in fact a pattern that has been repeated several times in Chinese history.

Even today Chinese scholars, their best and their brightest, believe that the collapse of the Chinese state was brought about mainly because of the use of advanced technology (the guns were more important!) and not as a symptom of their social organization. While the historical Chinese attitude is easy to understand within its past context the current one is not. Obliviously they have pursued technology with a vengeance and their current society is full of dramatic change of all kinds but this too is part of their historical pattern. After the fall of one dynasty the next one is full of change for a time and then the old goals reassert themselves. Will this time be any different?
 

Beatmaster

New Member
I totally agree, that the US can redraw its massive investment from China.
However China has always done their own stuff in their own unique way.
Economic they can adapt to a serious sitback as China it self is one huge highly educated factory.
This is a advantage that the west simple does not have specially because the producing costs and the raw materials cost 10 times as mutch then it does in the asian regions.
So in terms of producing capability the Chinese can handle the redraw of western cash.
What most other people do forget is that China has invested ridiculous amounts of cash in europa and latin amerika.
Accoording to several magazines the oversees cash investment by china has not tripled but quatred.

China Share Market is a relatively young one with huge potential in it.

China in itself is a wonder to the whole world and is becoming the model for many developing and underdeveloped ones. It is growing at a rate of 9-to-10% per annum. This exclamatory success has created strong investors' (both foreign and domestic) confidence on China and its effects can also be seen in the China Share Market.

China Share Market is witnessing a portfolio investment mania which saw a 130% gain in 2006 and has already crossed 50% profit margin within mid-May,2007. In fact, the market capitalization of the overall China Share Market upto May, 2007 is US$2.3 trillion only lagging behind Japanese Share Market(US$4.7 trillion) in Asia. It is being projected by many analysts and economists that this fast rising market is going to be the 2 nd largest Share Market after USA within a span of 12 years and will be the worlds biggest market in less then 20 years.


The whole issue here is not a possible war between east and west the main issue is economic's China just has to mutch to lose if NK regime falls due western intervention.
They just will not allow it.

Here ill provide a very usefull link with info about the relations that China does have with NK.
This will show that China will take action if the US helps seoul to overtrow the NK regime.
But because its such a huge piece i will only highlight a very important part and leave the rest up to you if you guys wanna read it.

And even though China may be angry at North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship, analysts say it will avoid moves that could cause a sudden collapse of the regime. Given the competition for influence in preparation for the eventual passing of a physically weak Kim Jong-Il, China may feel even more restrained from pressuring North Korea for fear of alienating a future power base.
But Asian military affairs expert Andrew Scobell writes, "No action by China should be ruled out where North Korea is concerned." According to Scobell, Beijing might stop propping up Pyongyang and allow North Korea to fail if it believed a unified Korea under Seoul would be more favorably disposed toward Beijing. A January 2008 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Institute of Peace, two Washington-based think tanks, says China has its own contingency plans (PDF) to dispatch troops to North Korea in case of instability. According to the report, the Chinese army could be sent into North Korea on missions to keep order if unrest triggers broader violence, including attacks on nuclear facilities in the North or South.


Read the whole story:

So its not a question or a case what if or when...its a matter of China's own security and future.
And having US favoured control over NK is a direct attack upon China's economic system wich they will not allow.
As their own believes are very differend then the western ones as has been pointed out by other members therefor the regional succes and future will be heavy influnced by chinese believes and way of life.
So any serious intervention by the US will trigger seriously bad effects for the US itself and the region wich will force China into military action as their agreements made in the past bind them to military actions if the US does help SK to overtrow NK.
Even if NK does the first move then China will still have great intrest and will probably prevent UN and US intervention by using military force to secure its own intrests and they might even take over NK by them selfs to restore order.
As has been explained by the worlds analists and experts.
Needles to say this means a direct confrontation between east and west.
As the link showes the best tactic that US and its allies can follow is by bringing China to want to accept a economic relation with the western favored South Korea and therefore drop North Korea.
The only main issue is that China just cannot give-up North Korea as they are bound to it.
 

rip

New Member
I totally agree, that the US can redraw its massive investment from China.
However China has always done their own stuff in their own unique way.
Economic they can adapt to a serious sitback as China it self is one huge highly educated factory.
This is a advantage that the west simple does not have specially because the producing costs and the raw materials cost 10 times as mutch then it does in the asian regions.
So in terms of producing capability the Chinese can handle the redraw of western cash.
What most other people do forget is that China has invested ridiculous amounts of cash in europa and latin amerika.
Accoording to several magazines the oversees cash investment by china has not tripled but quatred.

China Share Market is a relatively young one with huge potential in it.

China in itself is a wonder to the whole world and is becoming the model for many developing and underdeveloped ones. It is growing at a rate of 9-to-10% per annum. This exclamatory success has created strong investors' (both foreign and domestic) confidence on China and its effects can also be seen in the China Share Market.

China Share Market is witnessing a portfolio investment mania which saw a 130% gain in 2006 and has already crossed 50% profit margin within mid-May,2007. In fact, the market capitalization of the overall China Share Market upto May, 2007 is US$2.3 trillion only lagging behind Japanese Share Market(US$4.7 trillion) in Asia. It is being projected by many analysts and economists that this fast rising market is going to be the 2 nd largest Share Market after USA within a span of 12 years and will be the worlds biggest market in less then 20 years.


The whole issue here is not a possible war between east and west the main issue is economic's China just has to mutch to lose if NK regime falls due western intervention.
They just will not allow it.

Here ill provide a very usefull link with info about the relations that China does have with NK.
This will show that China will take action if the US helps seoul to overtrow the NK regime.
But because its such a huge piece i will only highlight a very important part and leave the rest up to you if you guys wanna read it.

And even though China may be angry at North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship, analysts say it will avoid moves that could cause a sudden collapse of the regime. Given the competition for influence in preparation for the eventual passing of a physically weak Kim Jong-Il, China may feel even more restrained from pressuring North Korea for fear of alienating a future power base.
But Asian military affairs expert Andrew Scobell writes, "No action by China should be ruled out where North Korea is concerned." According to Scobell, Beijing might stop propping up Pyongyang and allow North Korea to fail if it believed a unified Korea under Seoul would be more favorably disposed toward Beijing. A January 2008 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Institute of Peace, two Washington-based think tanks, says China has its own contingency plans (PDF) to dispatch troops to North Korea in case of instability. According to the report, the Chinese army could be sent into North Korea on missions to keep order if unrest triggers broader violence, including attacks on nuclear facilities in the North or South.


Read the whole story:

So its not a question or a case what if or when...its a matter of China's own security and future.
And having US favoured control over NK is a direct attack upon China's economic system wich they will not allow.
As their own believes are very differend then the western ones as has been pointed out by other members therefor the regional succes and future will be heavy influnced by chinese believes and way of life.
So any serious intervention by the US will trigger seriously bad effects for the US itself and the region wich will force China into military action as their agreements made in the past bind them to military actions if the US does help SK to overtrow NK.
Even if NK does the first move then China will still have great intrest and will probably prevent UN and US intervention by using military force to secure its own intrests and they might even take over NK by them selfs to restore order.
As has been explained by the worlds analists and experts.
Needles to say this means a direct confrontation between east and west.
As the link showes the best tactic that US and its allies can follow is by bringing China to want to accept a economic relation with the western favored South Korea and therefore drop North Korea.
The only main issue is that China just cannot give-up North Korea as they are bound to it.
I believe that your interpretation of the Chines governments’ position is the correct one. It is the way they see the situation. What I disagree with is that the Chinese government’s position is the best one for China or for anyone else for that matter. We need to restate the facts that must be delt with now. The facts that the unreasonable and irrational actions of the North Koreans’ are taking the agendas away from the primary players that are trying to act rationally.

Fact One: There are only so many times you can play the brinkmanship game, before someone or anyone, pulls the trigger. It is only a matter of time!

Fact two: Though economic considerations are important, for it is true that they usually determine the long term prosperity and power of a nation’s people, it has been shown over and over again that they will sacrifice their best economic interests when they are confronted with fear. The more repeated the acts of provocation and the more constant the fear, the more people are willing to sacrifice in order to stop it. The Korens' are hard tough people you don't want to mess with them lightly.

Fact three: China is not afraid right now because it thinks it has control but they should be. In the end it has the most to lose and the least to gain. It looks at the problems that North Korea causes it to be annoyances at most and perhaps even convenient distractions from its other more important enterprises. They are again wrong. If war starts again between North and South Korea it will be united by force there is no other outcome. Everyone that has put up with all of this nonsense for far so long are are just so sick and tired of it. So it will be settled for once and for all, no matter what the cost. That may not be entirely rational but then again people do not always behave rationally do they?


All the geopolitical and economic arguments will be throughout the window if war really gets started. If there is an incident with a large amount of civilian deaths involved, no one can stop it after that and most will not even want to. The South Koran government is already becoming unstable because it has failed to react strongly enough to the most recent attacks. If it falls or is restructured, it will be replaced with one far more willing to take the road to war and would respond to any real or perceived attack far more strongly than you might think necessary or purdent.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
Exactly i agree with you.
China does have the most to lose, and this is also the main reason why this situation is so darn hard to understand and to predict.
From China's point of view they have only losing options, the only option where they might be succesfull is in a conflict, as they got heavy motives to justify actions and even if they lose they lose while standing up for their believes and words.
As i know for a fact that believes, respect and prestige are nearly just as important as lving itself to the average chinese person.
Also the elite will demand that China does stand up with all the negative effects that might come from it.
As for the Chinese elite losing a battle is acceptable as long the system it self will be maintained specially if they can avoid losing international prestige and national prestige.
As the elite of China are actually the real power behind the goverment.
So regardless what the odss are for the chinese they will pick the option that gives them room to manoeuvre wich a direct clash between west and east does provide.
As they used this option in the first korean war as well and this was very succesfull.
So this might sound weard but behind the scenes China was the big winner in the last korean war as they lost nothing but gained some really strategic options wich NK does provide.
For China its a huge problem to support NK on the otherhand NK is a pupped and shield to them as it safe guards communist believes and traditions wich rule in China.

In the west they care about food, cloth, healthcare and such
In the east they care about prestige, respect and a chain of command where each "class" does have a role to fullfill and also believes and traditions are way more valued then the loss of a human life.
This does not mean that they are warmongers or a bad bunch of people as they are like this for thousands of years so their system works for them (So who am i to judge that)
But fact remains that due these believes, traditions and such they will pick a stance that gives them the most room and the most favorable outcome and if this option is just not there?
Or the option does not match with their views and internall believes then they go for the all of nothing option, and thats exactly what makes China such a formidable oponent as they have accepted already the outcome as each single on would be honored to die for its country and keep its family name high.
This is something wich will just not happen in western believes.
Funny example: If Obama askes the people to go to war or to protect the nation knowing that nearly 60% or more will be killed then you will see that 80% tells him to go F* himself.
If in a asian country this would happen then its a honor and people willing and unwilling play their part either sucseeding or dieing in the proces.
Also another matter to consider is that the asian elite has just as mutch power as the goverment itself as they behind the screens influence the goverment thus controlling it.

So rational options- solutions are acceptable for the western world, but the asain view might be not that rational wich might look absolutly ridiculous to a average western person while its the most logic option for them accoording to their standards and believes.
Thats the whole point a western solution does not mean that its a asain solution as those 2 world just do not mix yet......in time this might be but for now it can cause serious troubles as the west is not ready to see trough asian eyes and vice versa.
So going to war even if this means they will lose sounds to US and EU like a madman solution, but for them this might be the only way out to preserve their way of thinking and doctrines.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
Ohh i forgot to say that the solution that China might pick to solve this issue accoording to their way of doing things does not have to be the best way or the most optimal one.
Because rational believes and confusian believes are 2 totally differend things wich will influence any solution.
 

rip

New Member
Ohh i forgot to say that the solution that China might pick to solve this issue accoording to their way of doing things does not have to be the best way or the most optimal one.
Because rational believes and confusian believes are 2 totally differend things wich will influence any solution.
I am afraid that much of what you have said is true. Personally I have a hard time understanding the oriental obsession with what we in the west call “face” though I am told that interpretation, as we use it in the West, of the oriental concept is incomplete. Most of my interactions with Oriental people have been with the outward looking, practical, and educated classes since I do not speak any language other than English (a real disadvantage if you truly want to understand the world) I know that I do not have a good read on the common man, so I do not even pretend to know or understand their feeling except that there is a profound undercurrent of hostility about the past as concerning their perceived humiliations they think they have suffered from the western white powers.


But I am not at all sure that the Chinese government is as solidly supported as you assume it to be or that the Chinese’s people are as willing to sacrifice their lives, their treasure or the advancements which they have made to their country accomplished over the last fifty years. The big difference between now and fifty years ago is one; they have something to lose (the progress they have made) and they know it.

Two; with their one child policy, the percentage of their population that can become soldiers is smaller than you would at first think when looking at their large total population. And as each male solider dies in battle that is the end of one family line, a very important thing to remember in their culture. In the first Korea war the Chinese lost two-hundred and fifty thousand men and the US lost fifty thousand men while fighting a year longer, though most of the people that died were Korean. Do you think that the Chinese’s people would accept such causalities indefinitely? Would they accept them for the reasons of “Face”? I am not saying that the US would not be hurt, we would be, but we can make up any population lose by increasing the amount of immigration (we are a nation of immigrants!) an option that is unthinkable to the Chinese.

In a long war of attrition the US could and would cut off all sea trade to China completely. There would be some battles first, and the US might not win all of them, but in the end we would have total control of the sea. We can deny the Chinese all sea trade with our submarines using satellite intelligence alone, without aircraft carriers or aircraft. China has threatened and attempted to bully the other countries around them and they would not give China a great deal of support by land transport to the resources they would need to conduct a long war though I am sure there would be some but not enough. The US has deep strike capacity it has never needed to use before so their defense factories’ that they put hundreds of miles inland away from the cost are not as safe as they think. The war would be taken to the heart of their interior though the goal would not to be to kill as many people as possible. The best strategy is not to kill a lot of people, that just makes the survivors more angry but to make them poor, afraid, and hungry. The people would eventually blame their governmentthat they can see for all their pain( what do they care about korea) and for not protecting them. More than they would the foreign devils they never see, and rightly so.

Of course that leaves the option of nuclear war. Regardless of their pride, the Chinese will only result to the use of nuclear weapons if they think that they are in danger of losing their national sovereignty witch is not the place that the US would want to go. what would we do with China anyway?

If the unthinkable would happen, the Chinese are capable of killing several million people in the US but then afterwords China would no longer exist. We would blanket the entire country from border to border with nucks there would be no mercy.
 

jaffo4011

New Member
can i just recommend an excellent book to study if you really want to gain an insight into the history of this ongoing conflict and also the strategies and tactics involved in the war of the 50's....all of the points included in the book are as relevant today as they were 50 years ago....it should be required reading(and hopefully is) by todays military and political readers;

'The Korean War' by max hastings (published by Panmacmillan.com Home)
 

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
South Korea live fire exercise

Reports in media that South Korean Marines have ordered civillians into bunkers ahead of todays scheduled live fire exercise, other media outlets also report that the exercise may be delayed due to the weather.
South Korea intends to fire into their claimed territorial waters off Yeonpyeong in the same area that promted NK to send back salvos of arty rounds. With UN Security Council talks stalling and the public pressure the SK Government is under due to its lack of response, this could be the trigger for a possible heavy exchange between the two.
I don't believe it will result in all out war, but with the NK banter, I think it will provoke a substantial exchange. The South is still pretty hesitant but you can only slap down someone so many times ?

Does anyone know if the US still has a carrier group nearby ? and also where in relation to Yeonpyeong are the 28,500 US Marines

South Korea have just announced they have given the green light for the live fire exercise to go ahead today
 
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RubiconNZ

The Wanderer
Reports in media that South Korean Marines have ordered civillians into bunkers ahead of todays scheduled live fire exercise, other media outlets also report that the exercise may be delayed due to the weather.
South Korea intends to fire into their claimed territorial waters off Yeonpyeong in the same area that promted NK to send back salvos of arty rounds. With UN Security Council talks stalling and the public pressure the SK Government is under due to its lack of response, this could be the trigger for a possible heavy exchange between the two.
I don't believe it will result in all out war, but with the NK banter, I think it will provoke a substantial exchange. The South is still pretty hesitant but you can only slap down someone so many times ?

Does anyone know if the US still has a carrier group nearby ? and also where in relation to Yeonpyeong are the 28,500 US Marines

South Korea have just announced they have given the green light for the live fire exercise to go ahead today
Weather in the area so I imagine it will be going ahead.

According to navy.mil USS. George Washington is in dock though imo would be at very high readiness, she arrived home on the 14th of December.

USS Carl Vinson left from the west coast of the US early last week so I imagine she will be in the area very shortly, the USN still has 67 % of its submarines at sea, which is proportionately high for this time of year.

The South Korean Government really cannot afford to back down again they already lost a Def Min and their top General to the previous Arty strikes.

The best we can hope for is North Korea to not retaliate and release a press statement that in interests of regional stability the peace loving government of North Korea will refrain from retaliating to the unbridled aggression of South Korea, and we again call for Six Nation talks blah blah...

Complete tosh but would keep things from going hot for just that little bit longer.
 

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Weather in the area so I imagine it will be going ahead.

According to navy.mil USS. George Washington is in dock though imo would be at very high readiness, she arrived home on the 14th of December.

USS Carl Vinson left from the west coast of the US early last week so I imagine she will be in the area very shortly, the USN still has 67 % of its submarines at sea, which is proportionately high for this time of year.

The South Korean Government really cannot afford to back down again they already lost a Def Min and their top General to the previous Arty strikes.

The best we can hope for is North Korea to not retaliate and release a press statement that in interests of regional stability the peace loving government of North Korea will refrain from retaliating to the unbridled aggression of South Korea, and we again call for Six Nation talks blah blah...

Complete tosh but would keep things from going hot for just that little bit longer.
That is a large number of the sub fleet out so close to christmas !! May I ask what your source is on that ??

Reports just coming through that the exercise has commenced, so time will tell
 

RubiconNZ

The Wanderer
That is a large number of the sub fleet out so close to christmas !! May I ask what your source is on that ??

Reports just coming through that the exercise has commenced, so time will tell
Status of the Navy

as a comparison a post off Information Dissemination
Date .......attack subs deployed | attack subs underway
Nov30 .............. 37% ................ 46%
Dec07 .............. 41% ................ 63%
Dec17 ...............43% ................ 67%
North Korea won't take this on the chin, its there move to see what happens next.
 

advill

New Member
With all the recent North Korean (NK) rhetoric and threats to S.Korea's live firing exercise, NK did not retaliate - it "blinked". It now changed its stance by saying it is not worth its while to retaliate. South Korea did well with the strong support of the US Forces. A good lesson to learn and to respond to aggression and threats. Tensions are still high in the Korean Peninsula and a close watch need to be made on unpredicatble NK.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
With all the recent North Korean (NK) rhetoric and threats to S.Korea's live firing exercise, NK did not retaliate - it "blinked". It now changed its stance by saying it is not worth its while to retaliate. South Korea did well with the strong support of the US Forces. A good lesson to learn and to respond to aggression and threats. Tensions are still high in the Korean Peninsula and a close watch need to be made on unpredicatble NK.
I think that is rather over simplistic. DPRK got itself centre stage at a special meeting of the UNSC and will be very pleased about the stance taken by its usual friends. ROK completed its exercise, but how likely do you think it will be for these or similar to be repeated any time soon?

I say that the matter has been brought to a head and concluded in a way that saves face for both the Koreans. I also think that the chances of the six party talks starting again have improved significantly.

I definitely get a feeling that a line has been drawn by Russia and China against the US. If the reports on the Chinese Net are true, then Peace Mission 2011 should be very interesting as it is being rumoured to comprise of very large numbers drawn from all Services of both PRC and RF.
 

rip

New Member
I think that is rather over simplistic. DPRK got itself centre stage at a special meeting of the UNSC and will be very pleased about the stance taken by its usual friends. ROK completed its exercise, but how likely do you think it will be for these or similar to be repeated any time soon?

I say that the matter has been brought to a head and concluded in a way that saves face for both the Koreans. I also think that the chances of the six party talks starting again have improved significantly.

I definitely get a feeling that a line has been drawn by Russia and China against the US. If the reports on the Chinese Net are true, then Peace Mission 2011 should be very interesting as it is being rumoured to comprise of very large numbers drawn from all Services of both PRC and RF.
The question still remains, how many times can you play this game of “chicken” before somebody pulls the trigger? Things seem to be cooling down for the moment but nothing has been settled. Everything that was wrong before is still wrong. What is next? Since nobody has changed their position and only hardened them, two party, five party, or six party talks makes no difference.
 
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