USN CVN deployed to Korean Waters.Tensions At a high as Pyongyang on "brink of war."

[Sampanviking]

Relax, nothing is going to happen.

There will be plenty of huffing and puffing but nobodies house is going to be blown over.

War is diplomacy by other means and diplomacy by whatever means always has an objective. This occasion is not exception!

My best guess for the main parties?

North Korea wants to be left alone to sort out its succession without pesky arms control talks.

South Korea and Japan want a weaker currency to export themselves out of the economic doldrums.

The US wants to sell more military hardware into the area and make Chinese diplomacy more difficult.

China wants to preserve the NK regime in return for it adopting Chinese style reforms and integrating further into the Sinosphere.

Russia wants to sell everybody more oil and weapons.

War? Nah! not this place, no good for business.

 

[rip]

I'd just like to address the claim that North Korea is "crazy". It isn't crazy. It may do things that appear crazy, but that's because people don't realise how carefully calculated they usually are. If you don't believe me, ask why there still hasn't been a large-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Because South Korea is cowardly and would surrender if pushed? No. Because North Korea has a very good idea of how all the major players will react and plans accordingly.

Take the sinking of the Cheonan, for example. If North Korea had been "crazy" it would have sunk the patrol ship in an obvious way and/or said "haha, we did it - what cya gonna do about it, punk?" Instead it carried out the attack in a covert way. At first people thought it might have been a mine. Then there was supposition that it was a torpedo attack. And when the report came out there was the usual disagreement because science is never certain and some people don't like anyone allied to the US. So there wasn't enough consensus to take military action and in any event it was too late as too much time had passed from the sinking. This was all perfectly foreseeable.

Similarly the attack on Yeonpyeong was carefully calculated. North Korea knows the South's rules of engagement. It decided to attack a small island that is disputed, rather than a heavily populated part of the mainland. Again, it could have predicted that South Korea wouldn't make an all-out assault in retaliation.

Most democracies, especially ones that aren't especially bullish like South Korea, are easy to predict. They want to avoid war, so you can push them repeatedly if you're careful about it.

Similarly North Korea knows that China will do whatever it can to stop a war, including asking South Korea to turn the cheek time after time, because it prefers a dictatorial regime on its borders, rather than a democratic one.

North Korea can miscalculate, as it seems to think that the more belligerent it is, the more aid it will get. Also the internal power struggle going on can mean that it does things that it wouldn't do if it had a unified, stable government. But it's not crazy in the slightest.

I must respectfully disagree. If you think that any number of violent provocations can be the working of rational minds? If so I think you have been studding crazy people for so long that you are beginning to think like they do. There is always a point without exception where things will go way out of control and that is always unknown until you unexpectedly get there. Think about how and why WW I started. Nobody really wanted an all-out world war but they got one. There were several episodes and incidents followed by military mobilization and saber rattling that did not led to war before the trigger was finally pulled and there was no good reason to believe before it happened that it would be any different before it went out of control. Was it really about the assignation of the Arch Duke or the growing accumulation of events, while the primary issues driving the underlying hostility were never successfully addressed?
What you think is cleaver brakes-men-ship on North Korea’s part is in really stupid. We are only lucky that so far the trigger has not been pulled but we can’t be lucky forever. They are pursuing a policy that can only end in one way.

 

[Awang se]

Maybe they should deploy Chinese soldiers to patrol the DMZ instead of the NK soldiers.

But if full scale war between North and South does resume it will not be like the last time. It can only end with the fall of North Korea. That is the only possible outcome not another stalemate, that is not acceptable. The US will back South Korea all the way and if Chine intervenes again as they did last time there will war, a full scale war between the US with its allies I am sure, against the new more aggressive China fought everywhere in the world that they both have interests. A terrible costly war where no one will win but China will still lose. Though it would not get to the point, I think of it being militarly occupied beyond a few islands. That is the only point that China would use nuclear weapons and the US would rather lose any number of battles than strike first with nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, if China did not interfere it might workout much better for them than they can possibly realize. They will not have to subsidize the North anymore nor be continually embarrassed by them. They will not have to worry about economic refugees flooding into their country like in the past. After the war the US will finally be able to withdraw all of its troops and it’s all of its bases from all of the Korean peninsula, (something it has wanted to for a long time but could not as long as the crazies were in charge in the North) and Korea will develop a more neutralist foreign policy, more independent from that of the US though it might or might not remain a military ally. Korea as a strong military and economic power might be a great service keeping the more strident powers in the area feeling secure and safely separated. A win, win for those that believe in the concept.

When China threatened to intervened in Korea, MacArthur boasted that the US airpower will slaughter the Chinese army and he even go as far as planning to extend the war into Chinese territory while Trumman claimed that China was making an empty threat. That's, before SK II Corps and US 2nd Inf Division was virtually annihilated.

Concerning the withdrawal of the US troops from Korea, i doubt it will happen, even after Korea reunited. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, US presence in Korea are welcome.

 

[riksavage]

Maybe they should deploy Chinese soldiers to patrol the DMZ instead of the NK soldiers.



When China threatened to intervened in Korea, MacArthur boasted that the US airpower will slaughter the Chinese army and he even go as far as planning to extend the war into Chinese territory while Trumman claimed that China was making an empty threat. That's, before SK II Corps and US 2nd Inf Division was virtually annihilated.

Concerning the withdrawal of the US troops from Korea, i doubt it will happen, even after Korea reunited. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, US presence in Korea are welcome.

There was a major breakdown in communications during the final face-to-face meeting which discussed the campaign to reunify the Korean nation under democratic principles following the defeat of the NK army in and around Seoul, several key individuals went away with different views as to Trumans intentions. Critically:

MacArthur was under the impression that if China crossed the border to fight alongside the defeated North the President would authorize a strategic response. Meaning bomb not just the North, but the PRC's capacity to wage war (industrial base and supply routes into North Korea). Take the fight to the enemy and use everything in the Governments arsenal on a massive scale.

Bradley went away believing in a limited war fought to contain Communist expansion believing the US couldn't get drawn into a major strategic war in the East, which left the nation exposed in Europe (withdrawal of European Divisions to reinforce the wider Korean campaign). The real strategic threat to US interests in his eyes was that represented by the Soviet Union. He believed that the resources required to totally defeat China would seriously weaken the US capacity to defend Europe. The Russians would sit on the fence, watch the Chinese and US bleed themselves to death then move West.

Both options were not discussed openly and suprisingly the Army were tasked with evaluating whether the Chinese would join in, not the intelligence community. Subsequently they said unlikely as the Chinese didn't participate in the initial round, they looked at it from a largely tactical perspective not a strategic one (Mao not accepting a pro-Western power right in his backyard).

Another important driver for a UN strike North was the atrocities committed by the invading troops against both ROK and US captured soldiers, they put the SS to shame. Mass graves were found containing both dead US and ROK soldiers with hands and feet bound by barbed wire. One US unit came across a hillside where 400 odd ROK/US troops had been buried up to their stomachs and used for range/bayonet practice. Revenge is a great motivator, hence the lack of prisoner taking particularly by ROK as they moved from the defence to the attack. What people forget is that both sides where conditioned to extreme cruelty by the Japanese during the occupation, so such acts were considered the norm. One of the biggest screw-ups during the initial invasion was US embassy staff failed to destroy all the personnel files of ROK employees, they were later hunted down and killed along with their families once the NK troops took the city and seized the records.

Highly recommend anyone interested in the subject reads or listens to the following. One of the best books on the subject I've ever read (first published fifty years ago).

This Kind of War: The Classic Korean War History T.R. Fehrenbach (Author)

Today's NK military reminds me of Irag's Republican Guard on a much grander scale, on paper a formidable force, in reality lacking the cohesion to take on a modern fully integrated digitized military with superior firepower on land,sea and in the air.

The complete lack of modern command and control systems will kick-in decisively following the US/ROK's stunting of the initial 'shock and awe' strike. The NK field commanders will have been given fixed objectives dictated by rigid timetables and absolutely zero capacity for flexibility particularly during the inevitable fog of war when commanders will be required to take the initiative and make tactical decisions as the battle ebbs and flows.

First time around the NK forces were formidable and extremely brave on the offensive, however as soon as they were required to undertake any form of tactical withdrawal or retreat to avoid encirclement they disintegrated and were either captured or totally decimated. Whole divisions ceased to exist and soldiers simply left the line of march in droves, even under the threat of summary execution.The same will happen again, once the initial offensive is stopped dead in its tracks and the ROK/US reserves hit back the North's momentum will collapse along with the entire logistics supply chain. This latter issue will be critical because in 1950 the North's soldiers carried everything on their backs (small arms, MMG's, mortars, grenades etc.) and lived off three rice balls a day often totally independent of the need for fixed supply lines. This is OK if you are fighting lightly armed poorly equipped soldiers (50's era ROK), not a modern fully mechanized force backed up by ISTAR capabilities which will track your formations every move.

 

[rip]

From: Awang se

“Concerning the withdrawal of the US troops from Korea, i doubt it will happen, even after Korea reunited. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, US presence in Korea are welcome.”



They are not that welcome. Korea is not a favored duty station for the US troupes who are stationed there. It once was at least a cheap place to live and play which helped to some degree, but that isn’t true anymore. The friction caused by US troupes stationed on Korean soil causes more problem for our alliance than it helps it, if it wasn’t for the fact that South Korea is in constant danger from the North they would not be there right now along with three million land mines and other bad things. What function would US troupes serve on Korean soil after a united stronger Korea finally emerged? There is no advantage for the US and non for Korea that I can see to keep US troupes in their country while not having US troupes on Korean soil after unification, would only help ease Korea’s and our future relations with China. Who thinks of its self as encircled for some reason I cannot understand. A stronger and more independent Korea would function as a buffer state. A strong well run country Independent in its own right and acting as nobody’s tool but not a threat to anyone else but strong enough not to mess with.

 

[Awang se]

From: Awang se

“Concerning the withdrawal of the US troops from Korea, i doubt it will happen, even after Korea reunited. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, US presence in Korea are welcome.”



They are not that welcome. Korea is not a favored duty station for the US troupes who are stationed there. It once was at least a cheap place to live and play which helped to some degree, but that isn’t true anymore. The friction caused by US troupes stationed on Korean soil causes more problem for our alliance than it helps it, if it wasn’t for the fact that South Korea is in constant danger from the North they would not be there right now along with three million land mines and other bad things. What function would US troupes serve on Korean soil after a united stronger Korea finally emerged? There is no advantage for the US and non for Korea that I can see to keep US troupes in their country while not having US troupes on Korean soil after unification, would only help ease Korea’s and our future relations with China. Who thinks of its self as encircled for some reason I cannot understand. A stronger and more independent Korea would function as a buffer state. A strong well run country Independent in its own right and acting as nobody’s tool but not a threat to anyone else but strong enough not to mess with.

I would prefer to see the Unified Korea to be at least nominally neutral. no sense having to close down the current DMZ only to see another DMZ along the Yalu River. Just look at Japan. It's a pro-west, relatively stable and economically strong democratic country with formidable military. and yet we saw the US Military bases in that country despite strong opposition from the japanese public.

 

[rip]

I would prefer to see the Unified Korea to be at least nominally neutral. no sense having to close down the current DMZ only to see another DMZ along the Yalu River. Just look at Japan. It's a pro-west, relatively stable and economically strong democratic country with formidable military. and yet we saw the US Military bases in that country despite strong opposition from the japanese public.

You make a good point but you must think of why we have the deployed military structure that we have and you will see how this has all worked out.
Let’s begin with the popular but false notion that the US wants to have military bases all over the world. Not true. After WWII we had hundreds of bases but now we have dozens. It is expensive thing to do and our balance of payments suffers to keep forces outside of our own country. It is also a recruiting issue. Married people find over sea’s deployments often very unsettling and disruptive to family life making it harder to keep senor personal. The young kids might like it for one tour but then they get out. As mentioned before, having large numbers of foreign troops on, yours or on theirs, soils always leads to problems, some small, some large but never ending. It is always better for good relations between nations to avoid this if it possible, even between good friends.

As for the question of US troops on Japanese soil. They are not there to defend America. They are there to defend Japan. If they were not there the Japanese would have the H-bomb too. The Japanese pay the US for some of the costs of keeping our troops on their soil. The reasons are obvious. As long as China has unresolved issues with its neighbors and is unpredictable as it has so often proven to be, there is a perceived need by the Japanizes. That is safe to say they are afraid. I will not get into those issues. It is only necessary to note that they are unresolved to every body’s satisfaction and China is being aggressive about those issues. I will not predict how it will all play out. Peacefully I hope but there is a great differences between the many different parities.

As I understand it, there is no land border problem between China and ether Korea thou the chinese clame of exclusive economic zone at sea is, in I my humble opinion excessive. But that is not my call. If Korea were united some of those differences would go away. When China settles all of its border disputes amicably the world will be a happier and safer place to live and finally US troops in Japan will finally get to go home. That is the only reason why they are still there.

 

[Beatmaster]

After reading most of the posts i have to agree with the fact that NK does act crazy, but as several others said before they actually are not that crazy.
They know perfectly well what limits they can cross and what limits are a step to far.

And still they manage to avoid a war.
They know that if the cause a war they cannot win, but they also know that the CAN create a huge mess that might be even bigger then the last war.
China might be the ally of NK but i personally think that if war should break out then China might even turn on NK and overrun them just to make sure that NK does not become in US or Semi US hands.
Some said that the US Carrier does give the Chinese a fussy feeling but imagin how the Chinese would feel after the war when NK becomes allied ground?
So therefore i think that the main reason why China is ally in the first place with NK is to avoid that the US cannot get that close to the Chinese border.....you might say that NK is a buffer zone.
Also iam pretty sure that the Chinese will do whatever it takes to avoid the use of NK's nukes as the fallout can pretty mutch hurt China as well.

China and the US are no big friends and they probably will never be big friends specially because a "cold war" is lurking as China seriously becomes increasingly better equipped and seriously starts to grow.
So its in the best intrest for the US to avoid a war in the first place, and for China its important to stall this possible war as long as possible, as the proximity of 2 superpowers next to eachothers border will cause bigger problems, specially with the tentions growing in the region between asia and the west.

And i personally think that NK does know very well that China is forced to act either helpfull or hostile while the US has to back up SK to stop this war fast and hard as the war will bring chaos to the region wich will eventually kickstart a serious chain of events.
Take into account the tentions between Japan and China Taiwan and China SK and NK and the US is very mutch involved in this.
So for both the US and China its absolutly needed that a war must be avoided and if impossible then a convontation between east and west is not that unreal.

So this war is IMO just a kickstart to a bigger event as the risks for both east and west are far to great to ignore i think we all can agree on that.

 

[Beatmaster]

From: Awang se

“Concerning the withdrawal of the US troops from Korea, i doubt it will happen, even after Korea reunited. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, US presence in Korea are welcome.”



They are not that welcome. Korea is not a favored duty station for the US troupes who are stationed there. It once was at least a cheap place to live and play which helped to some degree, but that isn’t true anymore. The friction caused by US troupes stationed on Korean soil causes more problem for our alliance than it helps it, if it wasn’t for the fact that South Korea is in constant danger from the North they would not be there right now along with three million land mines and other bad things. What function would US troupes serve on Korean soil after a united stronger Korea finally emerged? There is no advantage for the US and non for Korea that I can see to keep US troupes in their country while not having US troupes on Korean soil after unification, would only help ease Korea’s and our future relations with China. Who thinks of its self as encircled for some reason I cannot understand. A stronger and more independent Korea would function as a buffer state. A strong well run country Independent in its own right and acting as nobody’s tool but not a threat to anyone else but strong enough not to mess with.

Well one function for the US would be to have a sizable force in the region and maintain it as a little extra to secure its own intrests as China and the US are rivals to some degree.
So having a few bases in the region would be of big help for the US to put pressure on China or the region if it ever comes that far.

Question why do you think that China does not want US troops in very close proximity to its borders?
Mainly because they view the west as a danger, so eventaully the status quo between SK and NK will be changed in some sort of status Quo between China and the US specially because the US supports Taiwan.
And as we all know China wants Tainwan to be a part of China again wich the US will never allow.
So after the war is over the US will have great intrest to maintain a few strong bases in unitfied korea...
At least i think.

 

[rip]

Well one function for the US would be to have a sizable force in the region and maintain it as a little extra to secure its own intrests as China and the US are rivals to some degree.
So having a few bases in the region would be of big help for the US to put pressure on China or the region if it ever comes that far.

Question why do you think that China does not want US troops in very close proximity to its borders?
Mainly because they view the west as a danger, so eventaully the status quo between SK and NK will be changed in some sort of status Quo between China and the US specially because the US supports Taiwan.
And as we all know China wants Tainwan to be a part of China again wich the US will never allow.
So after the war is over the US will have great intrest to maintain a few strong bases in unitfied korea...
At least i think.

Let us be clear about Taiwan. Long term both China and Taiwan want to be reunited. It is only the dictatorship of the communist party within China that is the problem (with its supremacy of the state over the rights of the individual) and not that the US resists their reunification. If and when the Communist party gives up its monopoly of power, now be careful here about what i just saud, I didn’t say give up its power, I said it gives up its monopoly of power, the two parts will be integrated soon afterword without any opposition from the US. That day will come sometime after the current economic boom in China sputters out. They alway do don't they.The communist party will lose its monopoly of power for the simple reason that any top down authoritarian system will not work beyond a certain point in a modern complex and dynamically evolving society that great countries require if they are to be great countries. The reasons that it is working so well now has to do with the partial freeing of individual power. After that previously unused human potenial is fully utilized, more personal freadom will be required to get aditional productivity from China's peope. That kind of top down system, regardless of the political or economic theory it ascribes to, constrains the creativity and productivity of its people when compared to those that don’t. I will not get in to all the reasons because they not only very involved to understand but also they are way off the topic of this bord but it will happen someday. It might be five years or it could be twenty-five years but it will happen.

The US will still need and will it will maintain Military basses in the region (it is a Pacific power just look at a map) but there is not any good reason that they need to be in Korea. If the US planned to invade China it would of done so a long time ago when it would have been much easier. If it wanted to invade it would try to place its forces as close as possible to its intended target but if its posture is more defensive, as indeed it is, then it is wiser to not be too close. There are very real and practical military reasons for this. The long term problem that the US and China faces is not even derived from the Communis parities' monopoly of power that it currently holds internally but from good old fashioned Chinese nationalism which is best described fossilized. Remember the Chinese people mainly did not participate in the 19th or 20th century except as victims and they are mostly stuck conceptually in the 18th.

 

[Beatmaster]

Let us be clear about Taiwan. Long term both China and Taiwan want to be reunited. It is only the dictatorship of the communist party within China that is the problem (with its supremacy of the state over the rights of the individual) and not that the US resists their reunification. If and when the Communist party gives up its monopoly of power, now be careful here about what i just saud, I didn’t say give up its power, I said it gives up its monopoly of power, the two parts will be integrated soon afterword without any opposition from the US. That day will come sometime after the current economic boom in China sputters out. They alway do don't they.The communist party will lose its monopoly of power for the simple reason that any top down authoritarian system will not work beyond a certain point in a modern complex and dynamically evolving society that great countries require if they are to be great countries. The reasons that it is working so well now has to do with the partial freeing of individual power. After that previously unused human potenial is fully utilized, more personal freadom will be required to get aditional productivity from China's peope. That kind of top down system, regardless of the political or economic theory it ascribes to, constrains the creativity and productivity of its people when compared to those that don’t. I will not get in to all the reasons because they not only very involved to understand but also they are way off the topic of this bord but it will happen someday. It might be five years or it could be twenty-five years but it will happen.

The US will still need and will it will maintain Military basses in the region (it is a Pacific power just look at a map) but there is not any good reason that they need to be in Korea. If the US planned to invade China it would of done so a long time ago when it would have been much easier. If it wanted to invade it would try to place its forces as close as possible to its intended target but if its posture is more defensive, as indeed it is, then it is wiser to not be too close. There are very real and practical military reasons for this. The long term problem that the US and China faces is not even derived from the Communis parities' monopoly of power that it currently holds internally but from good old fashioned Chinese nationalism which is best described fossilized. Remember the Chinese people mainly did not participate in the 19th or 20th century except as victims and they are mostly stuck conceptually in the 18th.

Well i see your point, however China is reason of concerns to the west.
Also the difficulties between Japan and China are not going to help, then there is the Taiwan and China issue wich might be solved in time not to mention the difficulties between SK and NK.
So even if Taiwan wants to rejoin with China then this will take alot of time before this ever happens.
The US have been selling serious amounts of western weapons to Taiwan to maintain its own defence against the "chinese" agression.
And what iam talking about is that even IF there will be a good solution between Taiwan and China it aint going to be tommorow and it aint going to be the next decade.
Till that very day both will remain hostile and tentions will rise and drop its that simple.
While the region is kinda explosive atm it does might lead to a chain of events that could be a reason for one of the involved nations to do something stupid.
I mean look at the history....the last war between NK and SK did leave very deep scars in the regions history....and both US and China do not want to go there again.
So regardless who is doing what.....if this goes wrong the it will be messy

 

[rip]

Well i see your point, however China is reason of concerns to the west.
Also the difficulties between Japan and China are not going to help, then there is the Taiwan and China issue wich might be solved in time not to mention the difficulties between SK and NK.
So even if Taiwan wants to rejoin with China then this will take alot of time before this ever happens.
The US have been selling serious amounts of western weapons to Taiwan to maintain its own defence against the "chinese" agression.
And what iam talking about is that even IF there will be a good solution between Taiwan and China it aint going to be tommorow and it aint going to be the next decade.
Till that very day both will remain hostile and tentions will rise and drop its that simple.
While the region is kinda explosive atm it does might lead to a chain of events that could be a reason for one of the involved nations to do something stupid.
I mean look at the history....the last war between NK and SK did leave very deep scars in the regions history....and both US and China do not want to go there again.
So regardless who is doing what.....if this goes wrong the it will be messy

I agree with most of what you say. And I fully agree that military confrontation, much less war is not inevitable. If we can get through the next ten years without anyone doing something really stupid I think we have a good chance. All of the countries involved have different agendas (no surprise) but all of them but North Korea are pursuing them in a rational manner.

But there is one additional issue that hasn’t come up in our discussion but still plays a part in this drama as a subtext. That is the relationship between South Korea and Japan. The Koreans have just as many and maybe more reasons to hate the Japanese than do the Chinese and for the same reasons. The Japanese are just as blind to their past transgressions towards the Koreans’ as they are to the Chinese, the Philippines, the Burmese, ect. They too have an island of which they both claim rightful ownership to and this one has people on it I believe. You can find it on line.The best thing that the US, Korea, and the Japanese can do is settle amicably that issue.

For the first time this week the Koreans’ are observers at the US and Japanese combined joint Naval exercises. The reason why they are there this time is obvious, as is the reasons why after all of the time that has passed since WW II this is the first time. Though both have declared themselves as allies of the US for fifty years. If they can settle this dispute fairly even if it is only by tossing a coin in the air and calling heads; that would go a long way to making both countries far safer and perhaps setting a precedent in how to settle the same island issue between China and Japan.

 

[Beatmaster]

I agree with most of what you say. And I fully agree that military confrontation, much less war is not inevitable. If we can get through the next ten years without anyone doing something really stupid I think we have a good chance. All of the countries involved have different agendas (no surprise) but all of them but North Korea are pursuing them in a rational manner.

But there is one additional issue that hasn’t come up in our discussion but still plays a part in this drama as a subtext. That is the relationship between South Korea and Japan. The Koreans have just as many and maybe more reasons to hate the Japanese than do the Chinese and for the same reasons. The Japanese are just as blind to their past transgressions towards the Koreans’ as they are to the Chinese, the Philippines, the Burmese, ect. They too have an island of which they both claim rightful ownership to and this one has people on it I believe. You can find it on line.The best thing that the US, Korea, and the Japanese can do is settle amicably that issue.

For the first time this week the Koreans’ are observers at the US and Japanese combined joint Naval exercises. The reason why they are there this time is obvious, as is the reasons why after all of the time that has passed since WW II this is the first time. Though both have declared themselves as allies of the US for fifty years. If they can settle this dispute fairly even if it is only by tossing a coin in the air and calling heads; that would go a long way to making both countries far safer and perhaps setting a precedent in how to settle the same island issue between China and Japan.

Yeah you are right and IMO if a "toss a coin" solution would settle this thing then i send the a whole freaking box of coins so they can toss the hell out of this problem LOL.
Just kidding.

However as i said you are right but you also have to take into account that regional dominance and proximity is a major problem for all the involved nations as one little spark can light up their christmas tree.
Also 50 years of pride and prestige is a serious issue to overcome to settle differences between the nations.
Another even bigger issue is the strategic and economic intrests that will make a easy way out impossible.
So IMO if SK, US and NATO is forced to flush the NK goverment out then they better do it fast and really hard as this sends a really clear msg to all the involved nations that military agression will meet serious punishment.
Because in the last war US was looking mutch weaker then the chinese did think the us was.
Still the US won the war but i think you know what ia getting at......one mistake and the US will lose its prestige and status in the region and maybe even its supporting control over the region wich is exactly that wich keeps the chinese in-line atm.
Iam not saying that the chinese are the bad guys but what iam saying is that china does have the motives, the resources and the pride and intrest to execute anything that needs to be done according to their own agenda.
And the only thing that is holding them back is that the US is watching while Russia and other nations are sitting back and watching "the movie" ready to pickup their share of the prize....
Let me put it a differend way each single involved nation has something to lose....and something to gain in this war....the only thing they need is a good reason and a optimal situation to exploit it to the fullest and in that regard china has by far the most to gain and lose.
So they will be forced to some degree of action.
As the last war did show us when china was kinda forced to step in wich nearly brought them face to face with the US forces.
And ill bet that China did learn from that mistake so whatever action they are going to take you can bet on it that it will be solid and dedicated.

 

[Kalasag]

People are overrating what China can do in event of a war.

China will have its' backs against the wall. They already have their hands full with Taiwan. Internal problems may arise if China gears for war in Korea. An it's not just the Muslim minorities and Tibetans. Poverty is rampant in the Chinese interior, and if conditions in the countryside get worse due to the economic burden of a war (assuming majority of the burden falls on their lap while their eastern coastline continues to get pampered, which is most likely), it will be enough to cause mass unrest (and a revolution starts) and China will have a problem in the interior.

And if they will go on an all-out war with the United States, their money reserves wouldn't mean squat since the battle will be at their own backyard, and the conditions in the countryside even get shakier.

If that happens, it is possible that even Russia, India and Pakistan would go to "war' with China (actually maybe just a land grab). The US will have allies in the region while China might stand alone. The US would look to capitalize on the economic, religious and ethnic differences and demoralize and divide the populace.

Conventional, unconventional and nuclear, the Chinese will be beaten. I do not see how they can risk going at war with the US if a war happens.

Most likely, nothing will happen as I feel all of the northern pacific powers are comfortable with the status quo. North Korea wouldn't do anything outlandish.

The best options for China:
1) Reestablish peace talks
2) Let go of NK in event that SK strikes back and focus on stabilizing its' social blueprint
3) Launch a preemptive strike against North Korea and take control

 

[Beatmaster]

People are overrating what China can do in event of a war.

China will have its' backs against the wall. They already have their hands full with Taiwan. Internal problems may arise if China gears for war in Korea. An it's not just the Muslim minorities and Tibetans. Poverty is rampant in the Chinese interior, and if conditions in the countryside get worse due to the economic burden of a war (assuming majority of the burden falls on their lap while their eastern coastline continues to get pampered, which is most likely), it will be enough to cause mass unrest (and a revolution starts) and China will have a problem in the interior.

And if they will go on an all-out war with the United States, their money reserves wouldn't mean squat since the battle will be at their own backyard. If that happens, it is possible that even Russia, India and Pakistan would go to "war' with China (actually maybe just a land grab). The US will have allies in the region while China might stand alone. The US would look to capitalize on the economic, religious and ethnic differences and demoralize and divide the populace.

Conventional, unconventional and nuclear, the Chinese will be beaten. I do not see how they can risk going at war with the US if a war happens.

Most likely, nothing will happen as I feel all of the northern pacific powers are comfortable with the status quo. North Korea wouldn't do anything outlandish.

The best options for China:
1) Reestablish peace talks
2) Let go of NK in event that SK strikes back and focus on stabilizing its' social blueprint
3) Launch a preemptive strike against North Korea and take control

You seem to forget that China did some serious catching up the last 2 decades and they are nearing the point they can rival the US both economicly and military.
With the US forces being spread thin....it will be even harder for the US to fight off China.
As history showes nearly every war china did fight the did it while being outgunned outmatched and with their backs against the wall....and still they proved to be a formidable force.
Back then their tech levels where way to low compared to the western world but today China comes close to US standards.
China and Russia should be relative be seen as equally powerfull to some degree.
We all know that the gap between US tech and Eastern tech is not that big and even if the US rule the skies, sea....they do not rule the land and this war is going to be fought on land the dirty way and this kind of war....will cripple the US badly and take away their main avantage both logistic and numerical.
So yes China will probably lose and when it does? then it might even fall back to the use of nukes.
Just saying it does not matter how mutch we like the US or EU.....China is alot bigger these days then what the US has ever faced they are going to need alot of help as alone the US would be happy to maintain a draw.

 

[Beatmaster]

Ohh on a side note:

If your refering to nuclear as nuclear weapons, it would be a even war, but the chinese would be likely to come out on top, and heres why.
China has a vast population, if they where to initiate a Imediate Draft, and start to produce tanks and weapons, the United States would be over run. China has a population exceeding 1billion, and if they where to have a imediate draft, i think they could easily have around 400-500million soldiers, almost 100-200 thousand more then the entire population of the United States. (US census 2000, 300 thousand people in US.)
The only reason we wouldn't be stomped into the ground (by we i mean American's/United States) is because we hold the most technologicly advanced weapons (tanks, soldiers,bombs, aircraft... etc.) So we would be able to hold our ground for the long run. But would be eventually over whelmed.

If nuclear weapons where initiated. No doubt, the united states. We are number 2 in the world with the most nuclear weapons. (Just behind Russia). Also, since the united states is larger -i believe- they would have more land to nuke then we would.

 

[Kalasag]

Ohh on a side note:

If your refering to nuclear as nuclear weapons, it would be a even war, but the chinese would be likely to come out on top, and heres why.
China has a vast population, if they where to initiate a Imediate Draft, and start to produce tanks and weapons, the United States would be over run. China has a population exceeding 1billion, and if they where to have a imediate draft, i think they could easily have around 400-500million soldiers, almost 100-200 thousand more then the entire population of the United States. (US census 2000, 300 thousand people in US.)
The only reason we wouldn't be stomped into the ground (by we i mean American's/United States) is because we hold the most technologicly advanced weapons (tanks, soldiers,bombs, aircraft... etc.) So we would be able to hold our ground for the long run. But would be eventually over whelmed.

If nuclear weapons where initiated. No doubt, the united states. We are number 2 in the world with the most nuclear weapons. (Just behind Russia). Also, since the united states is larger -i believe- they would have more land to nuke then we would.

The China you are seeing on TV is the so-called eastern seaboard. It's where China poured all of the money into development, leaving the interior in the dirt. It's just a facade. Hundreds of millions of Chinese people live in the countryside in squalor. A lot live below the poverty line, uneducated, untalented, unskilled. If war starts, their living conditions will go down. I do not underestimate their patriotism, but even so, they will at least remain a burden on China's part. It's easy to undersell things like social situations, but that is a large part of the picture. $6,778 is China's per capita and a huge chunk goes to the so-called 'city people'. And there is disdain between city-dwellers and countryside people. And that stems from inequality.

It's laughable how you throw their population so easily. China doesn't have any amphibious capability whatsoever. Have you ever asked why China never attacked Taiwan, even with paratroopers? The United States has far superior technology and the gap is larger than what you make it out to be, although not very big, IMHO. But they do not have enough military infrastructure too. Their navy is laughable. Their air force is good, but they only have limited range. And not all of their nukes are intercontinental ballistic missiles. Some are warheads meant to be launched by plane (not a threat to US at all) or submarine (well this is a major threat). And being generous, they have around 1500 warheads (reports indicate below 1000) and 10% can reach American soil directly. Can't blow off the entire United States with that.

Economically, the US can find alternative nations to outsource their production. They can move to SEA (where labor is getting cheaper BTW as compared to China), South America or Africa, whereas China would lose a lot of export markets in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and the United States. Their economy would come crashing down on it's own weight. Plus, US has a great capability to blockade China by sea and air.

FYI, I am part Chinese, and I know how tough Chinese resourcefulness and ingenuity is to match-up with. But I have to concede (because I am not a homer) is that the talent pool is in the west. Even the best Chinese scientists go there to study. If war starts, a lot of Chinese scientists will be in America and not in China where they are needed to help speed up mobilizing production. Plus, you can easily blow Chinese satellites to bits. Logistics, the United States is the pound-for-pound king. They control the GPS stations. Intelligence and information will be on the United States' side.

Unconventionally, we can open new fronts with the Tibetans and Uzbeks as our new allies. If what you mean is that China will overrun us 'in China', I have to agree with you. But China will be sent back into the 'stone age' (please I'm not talking literally). China has so much more to lose than the United States. Get it?

 

[Beatmaster]

Example:

The US Military could easily bomb the Three Gorges Dam in a psycho-shock attack, sweeping thousands of villages, key trading posts, some towns and cities until finally flooding Shanghai, causing major logistics problems and a loss of moral due to the loss of a national treasure (and bad press for US). That move will destroy a lot of bridges (and kill a lot of innocent children BTW). Looking at China's geography, the Yangtze virtually divides China in half so communication and movement between North and South would be harder.

For maximum collateral damage, you could strike the remaining dams upriver or bomb the Tanggula Mountains glaciers to melt the ice. The effects will be devastating.
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Numbers aren't always everything.

O no dude, iam not questioning your your reply as you are right,
But what iam pointing out is that you cannot disregard the fact that China is a powerhouse and that it does hvae enough options to make life a living hell for everyone that goes to war with China.
I do understand that the western world will meet any form of agression that China might bring into battle.
However lets face the facts here the mentality of China is very differend to the western or even russian views.
China is not just some puppy you can toss around, and the moment you question their motives and their abilities that is where you go wrong.
China has always been kinda secret and they always have expoited their own civies to gain maximum profit and such.
So yes their country is very modern and at the same time its a thirt world country.
I know what you are trying to say.
But its ridicilous to say that in a theoretical battle between China and VS that VS will come out on top that easy.
Convetional China will be perfectly able to par the US.
China does not have enough strenght to bring the fight to US main soil thats a major advantage that the US has.
Also the US airpower is formidable compared to the Chinese airforce, not to mention the massive naval power that the US has.
However China can hold their ground and they are able to repel the US ground forces with overwhelming power. (This is where numbers do matter)
The US will not be able to invade China .....maybe 10 years ago but today this is just crazy as the US goverent knows that the cost of doing so will leave the US weak.
Iam not saying that US can't but the cost will be alot higher then any war the US have ever fought before.
China's propaganda machine will have their own people to dig up their ak-47's and go to war.
And thus a new vietnam war is a fact the only difference is that that China is a 100 times stronger oponent then vietnam ever was.
So iam not saying that the US will be defeated or that it cannot win from China but what iam saying is that the way how China is build, their mentality and their propaganda i mean look at their history........in short said the US will be fighting a war noone has fought before.
As many others on this forum have written in theoretical East vs West topic's
The western world is strong enough to fight such a war.
But ruling out that China cannot win is not realistic they can win they have the resources and they can in the long term bring the fight to the western world.
So without help of the EU the US will not be able to defeat China in a conventional way.
And while US forces are spread thin around the world you will have to understand that if the US is not ready to face China then it will take a very long time before the US forces can succesfully regain lost ground and even if they can it will be a massive and long fight where death rates will be horrific on both sides.
So in short yes the US is superior in nearly everything but without the help of the EU the US will find themselfs not capable of bringing down China on Chinese home soil.
The major avantage that the Chinese have over the US, is that it has nothing to lose...even if China gets destroyed they keep on going, while the US has to lose its global security, prestige and their status as worldwide superpower, bnot to mention what this would do to US economic's and to the western economic's this will cripple the US severly.
And this SK vs NK war can trigger a chain of events and can trigger a fight between east and west so its best to avoid it at all costs, the US knows this, the EU knows this, Russia knows this, and China knows this however cultural differences and mentality/ doctrine and way of life/ propaganda will be a major factor for the outcome of any of this.

 

[rip]

Example:

The US Military could easily bomb the Three Gorges Dam in a psycho-shock attack, sweeping thousands of villages, key trading posts, some towns and cities until finally flooding Shanghai, causing major logistics problems and a loss of moral due to the loss of a national treasure (and bad press for US). That move will destroy a lot of bridges (and kill a lot of innocent children BTW). Looking at China's geography, the Yangtze virtually divides China in half so communication and movement between North and South would be harder.

For maximum collateral damage, you could strike the remaining dams upriver or bomb the Tanggula Mountains glaciers to melt the ice. The effects will be devastating.
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Numbers aren't always everything.

Wow, you guys have just about started WW III all by your selves. So please don’t start one. The point I wanted to make was far more modest. That a reunited Korea could and should, when it comes to pass, be in China’s best long term interest and that resisting it is not their best possible decision to make. And war with any of its neighbors is not in its interes either. I do not think that the Chines are necessary belligerent, I think for a verity of reasons most of which are found in their past that their thinking has yet to catch up with the 21th century that we are all now living in.

I do not claim to be an expert, I have however lived, worked and traveled in the orient and there is as much to admire about them as there is much to criticize. They are just as smart, just as hard working, and always surprising as anybody else in the world but the differences can be startling. The difference between societies based up on the Jewish/Christens ethic and the ones based up on the Confucian/Taoist lead to much confusion on both sides. There is no command within the Confucian/Taoist ethic to “love one’s enemies”. Which seems to be surprising thing to say when you consider that the people coming from Jewish/Christen societies, are on average much fiercer and much more efficient at, any and all forms, of dealing death. There no Saints or villains here.

As to war between the US and China what would either side consider victory if such a war were to come about? That is a far harder question to answer than how many Tanks and Planes each side has isn’t it? My best guess is that the Chinese want, as they see it, their rightful (sphere of influence). A completely obsolete concept that simply does not work in the highly interconnected world we live in today were local geography has even less importance and is growing smaller. It is a simple fact that many of the peoples in the orient have let to master the talents necessary for effective use in peer to peer equal working relationships. This is something that is simply not on their mental maps. To them one must be superior or inferior, the student or the master, equals are always rivals and cannot be trusted. I have worked for them, I have had them work for me, but working together as equals is always the hardest. I am not making this stuff up!

What would the US consider victory? It is not invading their country, stealing their treasures, humiliating their people, raping their woman, forcing a new religion on them or in any way becoming their master. All we want them to do is grow up and join the21th century as a responsible adults. If war were to come we would work to deprive them of all the benefits of the modern area, like good food, heath, and electricity. All the pleasures that come with being a modern country that we only expected from them is to act like one. The age of empires is over.

 

[advill]

Let's make this clear.

I think nothing's going to happen.

But if China goes to war with the United States, I'm sure they would fight a war of attrition and not a pitched battle. Hunger their populace, destroy vital infrastructure, leaflet bombing, shock and awe. I think you're thinking about landing forces in Hong Kong or something.

Another, the Chinese economy is too much tied to the United States. The United States could transfer production to Latin America, Africa and South East Asia. The United States would pretty much lose a market in China, but China would lose A LION'S SHARE of it's exports if it goes to war. Remember, America is still more than twice as rich, and although it would lose a lot of infrastructure investments in China, the United States can easily set-up production in other places. The American market is irreplaceable and US bonds that China owns (and that's a lot of billions) would go poof.

But that's the truth, China and USA wouldn't go to war. They practically married each other when China bought tons of US bonds while United States poured investments and technologies in China. Don't think of them as Cold War-type enemies. Think of them as a couple with an on-off relationship. Even if they divorced, they wouldn't kill each other. There's still the affection.

No country in its right senses would start WWIII. This would mean that the "losing" side, or for that matter both sides (China & US) would ultimately use their nuclear weapons. The former USSR realised this (remember the Cuban missile threats during Pres. Kennedy's time?), and China presently acknowldges the fact that the US is a prominent nuclear power. What could probably happen are the continuing skirmishess in the South China Sea, East China Sea/Sea of Japan; and eventually waters in the Western Pacific. The biggest fear now is rougue states like North Korea would continue to antangonise South Korea & Japan with the hope that its ally - China would always support its psychopathic actions. As of now, China & the US can clearly see the serious consequences of any miscalculation. Hope this will continue at least for the next 20 years.