USN CVN deployed to Korean Waters.Tensions At a high as Pyongyang on "brink of war."

[M1Brams]

By Jack Kim and Lee Jae-won

INCHEON, South Korea | Wed Nov 24, 2010 6:33am EST

INCHEON, South Korea (Reuters) - A U.S. aircraft carrier group set off for Korean waters on Wednesday, a day after North Korea rained artillery shells on a South Korean island, in a move likely to enrage Pyongyang and unsettle its ally, China.

South Korea said the bodies of two civilians were found on

the island after Tuesday's attack, which is likely to stir up

more resentment in the country against its prickly neighbor.

The nuclear-powered USS George Washington, which carries 75 warplanes and has a crew of over 6,000, left a naval base south of Tokyo and would join exercises with South Korea from Sunday to the following Wednesday, U.S. officials in Seoul said.

"This exercise is defensive in nature," U.S. Forces Korea said in a statement. "While planned well before yesterday's unprovoked artillery attack, it demonstrates the strength of the ROK (South Korea)-U.S. alliance and our commitment to regional stability through deterrence."

North Korea said the South was driving the peninsula to the "brink of war" with "reckless military provocation" and by postponing humanitarian aid, the North's official KCNA news agency said. The dispatch did not refer to the planned military drills.

The government in Seoul came under pressure for the military's slow response to the provocation, echoing similar complaints made when a warship was sunk in March in the same area, killing 46 sailors.

Defense Minister Kim Tae-young was grilled by lawmakers who said the government should have taken quicker and stronger retaliatory measures against the North's provocation.

"I am sorry that the government has not carried out ruthless bombing through jet fighters during the North's second round of shelling," said Kim Jang-soo, a lawmaker of ruling Grand National Party and a former defense minister.

Tuesday's attack was the heaviest in the region since the Korean War ended in 1953, and marked the first civilian deaths in an assault since the bombing of a South Korean airliner in 1987.

The United States and Japan urged China to do more to rein in North Korea after the reclusive nation fired scores of artillery shells on Tuesday at a South Korean island near the maritime boundary between the two sides.

Beijing will not be pleased by the deployment of the aircraft carrier and will not respond to such pressure, said Xu Guangyu, a retired major-general in the People's Liberation Army who now works for a government-run arms control organization.

"China will not welcome the U.S. aircraft carrier joining the exercises, because that kind of move can escalate tensions and not relieve them," he said.

"Our biggest objective is stability on the Korean peninsula. That interest is not served by abandoning North Korea, and so there's no need to rethink the basics of the relationship."

Personally this is a show of force to somewhat bolster South's response to the shelling.But it seems to be someone hasty to deploy a whole carrier group. China will be really very uncomfortable with the USN right at thier doorstep should hostilities break out and with the Indians deploying at the border i think this time its buisness..

 

[advill]

It is a good move to deploy the US Carrier Strike Group for exercises with the South Koreans to show North Korea that provocations are not tolerated. It started with the sinking of the S.Korean "Cheonan", now the artillery shelling, what else is coming? China has to do much more to restrain their North Korean friends rather than being dismayed with the impending exercises.

 

[Awang se]

It is a good move to deploy the US Carrier Strike Group for exercises with the South Koreans to show North Korea that provocations are not tolerated. It started with the sinking of the S.Korean "Cheonan", now the artillery shelling, what else is coming? China has to do much more to restrain their North Korean friends rather than being dismayed with the impending exercises.

"Cheonan" sinking has a lot of question mark. The investigation are rather one sided affairs. As i ask many times already, Why now? Why NK risk war? did they have some sort of super weapon?

 

[Neutral Zone]

I really don't think anything more will come of this. The deployment of the George Washington is a standard response I doubt America is seriously considering airstrikes. Things will settle down until the next incident, sadly this is par for the course in this part of the World.

 

[Tomte47]

"China will be really very uncomfortable with the USN right at thier doorstep should hostilities break out and with the Indians deploying at the border i think this time its buisness.."

Am i missing something here why should China be concerned about the u.s navy ? Do they think the u.s is gonna attack the worlds most populous nuclear armed country for no reason out of the blue because they have 1 carrier group nearby ??

 

[SURB]

Probably they(DPRK) are taking advantage of the conventional versus Nuclear equation that goes in their favor.But with US carrier group moving right in the state of affairs ,it's becoming more interesting.Chinese reaction /response will decide now where this game has to end.

 

[Neutral Zone]

"China will be really very uncomfortable with the USN right at thier doorstep should hostilities break out and with the Indians deploying at the border i think this time its buisness.."

Am i missing something here why should China be concerned about the u.s navy ? Do they think the u.s is gonna attack the worlds most populous nuclear armed country for no reason out of the blue because they have 1 carrier group nearby ??

The 2 events referred to are almost certainly coincidental but to the PLA High Command seeing an Indian build up on one side and rising tensions in Korea with a CVBG arriving they will be asking themselves "Is this a prelude to an Indo-American attack?" The answer is of course "No" but military commanders are paid to ask such questions and to ensure that they are ready to deal with any eventuality.

 

[M1Brams]

"China will be really very uncomfortable with the USN right at thier doorstep should hostilities break out and with the Indians deploying at the border i think this time its buisness.."

Am i missing something here why should China be concerned about the u.s navy ? Do they think the u.s is gonna attack the worlds most populous nuclear armed country for no reason out of the blue because they have 1 carrier group nearby ??

Perhaps that maybe so, but China has not forgotten the last time when hostilities broke out during the Korean war, leading to the UN pushing past the 38th Parallel. Im sure China doesnt want to have a anti communist Korea right at thier doorstep at the Yalu River, what more with US staff positioned in NK should the war be in favour with the Allies or the UN.

 

[M1Brams]

Probably they(DPRK) are taking advantage of the conventional versus Nuclear equation that goes in their favor.But with US carrier group moving right in the state of affairs ,it's becoming more interesting.Chinese reaction /response will decide now where this game has to end.

Just curious, the last time when the Chinese decided to send volunteers to push back the UN army, i was told that in the face of mounting defeats,Macarthur wanted to employ nuclear bombs against the volunteer army.What do you think would happen at that time if the confrontation esclated to nuclear status

i wouldnt rule it out should hostilities start though but so far i havent heard anything on the issue.

 

[advill]

Just curious, the last time when the Chinese decided to send volunteers to push back the UN army, i was told that in the face of mounting defeats,Macarthur wanted to employ nuclear bombs against the volunteer army.What do you think would happen at that time if the confrontation esclated to nuclear status

i wouldnt rule it out should hostilities start though but so far i havent heard anything on the issue.

I fear that with a belligerent, unstable, nuclear North Korean dictatorship, South Korea and Japan would eventually consider turning nuclear to protect themselves from threats. It is now China who plays an important part to restrain North Korea and ensure that the Korean Peninsular is nuclear-free. The other 4 members of the 6-party talks have tried their best for several years now, but unfortunately without success.

 

[riksavage]

The North must know that if they kick-off the ruling elite will lose everything.

Militarily South Korea has the advantage in material quality and training. NK troops spend very little time training due to dire ammunition and fuel shortages. The majority of their armoured formations have zero thermal night fighting capabilities. The Souths amoured formations will rip through the Norths once the reserves are activated and the initial shock wave is stunted. The south have 2750 tanks vs 3500 NK, (many being obsolete T55's), the ratio will be evened out once CAS starts eating into the supply lines and advancing NK columns. The NK Airforce is a joke, on average the pilots only get 25 flying hours per-year, they will be shot to pieces by the South/US F15/16's. There is a massive difference between the South's military capabilities today compared to the first time they had a scrap with the North, they spend about 4 x more on defence for starters.

The only X-factor is the nuclear option, will they or won't they once the shooting war starts?

The NK C&C is basic to say the least due to an almost complete lack of modern computers and communication equipment, which means zip flexibility once the first whistle is blown. Unless the Chinese front up, the North will be defeated pretty quickly in a very bloody engagement with a level of human loss not witnessed since the last Korean War. Their ammo and fuel will run out unless the PRC steps-in and supplies the NK military for free.

There will be no UN army because the Chinese will veto any resolution. Individual nations may contribute and to be honest the best way for non-US nations to help (Japan, UK & Aus for example) will be to send CAP/CAS fighter sqns and Naval assets (DDG's and Subs). Putting troops on the ground unless you are prepared to commit a Div (10,000+) will be a waste of time, you are not going to influence the drive South by 1 million + NK troops with a brigade. Plus by the time you arrive in Pusan and unload all your kit the outcome will have already been decided on the battlefield.

 

[rip]

I think it is safe to say that there are several competing interests at work here so one simple view will not explain or predict the future actions of the parties’ involved. Though the different national and big power interests are very real, understandable, and the big players are at least are trying to advance their agendas in a rational manner, events however are being driving by the leadership of North Korea and the leadership of North Korea are simply Street Rat Crazy. When you determine that the people you are dealing with are simply crazy you already know everything that is useful to know about them. If you make the mistake of trying to make since of crazy people and what they do you run the risk of acting just as crazy as they do. So don’t even try.

So let us analyze the interest of the sane people and what they want.

The US policy is fairly clear. They are trying to maintain the Status Quo. The Status Quo has benefited all the major players in the area for a very long time with the exception of North Korea. It hasn’t benefited them simply because the leadership of North Korea is Street Rat Crazy. Otherwise they wouldn’t have starved several million of their own people to death in the name of a purer form of Socialism. The US reasons for defending South Korea are several; the first being that it has already expended many of its own citizens lives and its treasures in the defense of South Korea in the past. Second, in most cases South Korea has been a fairly good ally in its dealing in other parts of the world, plus it is an important training partner and of course there is an ethnic Korean community first, second and third generation, living within American that connects us by blood.
Then there is the fact that the Koreas are a buffer states between China and Japan. We all know that there are a significant number of people in China that simply hate the Japanize and want to hurt and humiliate them because of the atrocities the Japanese committed during WW II. Atrocities that the Japanese have never admitted too committing, preferring instead to claim the myth that they were the major victims of war. The Chinese people cannot yet let go of their hate though the current China's leadership acts reasonably and not emotionally about this issue. Keeping those two countries separated as much as possible makes the entire world a safer place in which to live.
But the most important long term and uncompromising goal that the US will pursue in this area is the principal of the freedom of the seas. An issue that probably more than any other will drive the US/China dynamic towards eventual war. The US dos not want to force the issue hoping that the Chinese view will mature overtime to the point that they too can see that the principal of the freedom of the sea’s is in their long term best interest as well. As indeed it is but the Chines world view about the primitive use of power and the necessity of cooperation is very 18th century and just plan dumb.


The South Korea’s point of view is that the North Korean government will fall on its own accord without any effort made on its own part because the North does not function as a government should. For the North’s government does not serve the interest of its people but only the governing elites. It serves only the elites and eventually enough ordinary people will stop allowing themselves to sacrificed for the benefit of the few. The South Korean’s will then pick up the pieces though that will not be an easy task for them to do and they know it. The Korea’s will be united at last but the south is not really looking forward to that day because it will be so difficult, disruptive, and expensive but they are resigned to do it when that day comes.

The Russians goal is simplicity itself. They do not want any trouble and will if they can, stay out of it.

The Japanese are not happy about anything. They see any change at all, will in the long run be bad for them and can see no way that things can get better from their point of view.

That leaves China. Their policy can be described as muddled at best. North Korea as it exists today has been only made possible by China’s constant stupid short sighted policies that it can’t give up without admitting that it was and still is, wrong. In a Confucian based society this not very likely toever happen. In a Confucian based society not only is honestly not the best policy, it may be suicide to the government’s hold upon its power. It wanted North Korea as a client state totally dependent upon it for support and to play the role of a useful pawn. Vary typical for an 18th century political outlook. But because North Korea has not followed the script, (remember they are Street Rat Crazy after all), it is the North Korean’s who are driving events and not they. At this point there is no way for China to disengage without looking like a loser no matter that it is China that is in far more danger from the effects and fallout of North Korea’s nuclear weapons than is the US.

In the final analyses at this point the actions of North Korea cannot be predicted for they are not capable of acting rationally. But if they continue to attack South Korea there has to be a point where the South Korean government has to retaliate, for if it don’t they will be kicked out of power and be replased by a government that will. Your guess is as good as mine what will happen then.

But if full scale war between North and South does resume it will not be like the last time. It can only end with the fall of North Korea. That is the only possible outcome not another stalemate, that is not acceptable. The US will back South Korea all the way and if Chine intervenes again as they did last time there will war, a full scale war between the US with its allies I am sure, against the new more aggressive China fought everywhere in the world that they both have interests. A terrible costly war where no one will win but China will still lose. Though it would not get to the point, I think of it being militarly occupied beyond a few islands. That is the only point that China would use nuclear weapons and the US would rather lose any number of battles than strike first with nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, if China did not interfere it might workout much better for them than they can possibly realize. They will not have to subsidize the North anymore nor be continually embarrassed by them. They will not have to worry about economic refugees flooding into their country like in the past. After the war the US will finally be able to withdraw all of its troops and it’s all of its bases from all of the Korean peninsula, (something it has wanted to for a long time but could not as long as the crazies were in charge in the North) and Korea will develop a more neutralist foreign policy, more independent from that of the US though it might or might not remain a military ally. Korea as a strong military and economic power might be a great service keeping the more strident powers in the area feeling secure and safely separated. A win, win for those that believe in the concept.

 

[Black Legion]

NK troops spend very little time training due to dire ammunition and fuel shortages.

The NK Airforce is a joke, on average the pilots only get 25 flying hours per-year, they will be shot to pieces by the South/US F15/16's.

Where do you get this intel from about NK troop training and pilot training hours?

 

[Longtail]

NK fired shells because SK conducting a military exercise in disputed waters and fired live shells.

What a mess up!

What mess the situation up more is US sending a CVN battle group 100 miles off the shore of China "to press China restrain its 'allies' and ensure free use of waterways".

I hope you guys do realize the effective battle range of a CVN battle group alone with its effective radar range.

At the same time, with Obama's round the China up tour, tensions are rising up high all along the Chinese border, adding up with US serious economic issue, I would say, its a perfect time to start a world war.




PS, if US start a nuclear war, I dont think it will suffer as much as China, since most of US populations are live in suburbs.

 

[godbody]

NK fired shells because SK conducting a military exercise in disputed waters and fired live shell

At the same time, with Obama's round the China up tour, tensions are rising up high all along the Chinese border, adding up with US serious economic issue, I would say, its a perfect time to start a world war

PS, if US start a nuclear war, I dont think it will suffer as much as China, since most of US populations are live in suburbs.

China is not really for a war yet they know this in Chinese High Command. What a nuclear war are you crazy once that is let lose the world is over the bomb are not like the old bomb in 1945 they are ten times stronger so the suburbs with be wipe out THAT'S END GAME ON EARTH

 

[advill]

China is not really for a war yet they know this in Chinese High Command. What a nuclear war are you crazy once that is let lose the world is over the bomb are not like the old bomb in 1945 they are ten times stronger so the suburbs with be wipe out THAT'S END GAME ON EARTH

Now that the US Carrier Strike Group and the South Koreans have commenced their exercises in the Yellow Sea, let's see what the irrational North Koreans would do. If a War starts in the Korean Peninsular, China will also be a BIG loser i.e. economically, politically & militarily. The Chinese must be cursing the North Koreans, as there are now very good reasons for the US and its allies to conduct exercises in the Yellow Sea and surrounding waters so as to be prepared for the N. Korean threats missiles etc.

 

[riksavage]

Where do you get this intel from about NK troop training and pilot training hours?

Common knowledge. The north have zip ability to raise revenue to buy weapons and fuel. They were famous for printing super dollars thanks to a printing press from Saddam but were busted by the State Department. They are also one of the biggest produces of dodgy cigs sold in the PRC.

To train manpower you need to spend and spend big, the north spends all its funds just keeping a million men fed and watered. They are in deep deep trouble, they need southern and PRC money/aid to just exist. The current sabre rattling is to try and gain an aid advantage, unfortunately the South are getting tired of playing the same old threat game.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I'd just like to address the claim that North Korea is "crazy". It isn't crazy. It may do things that appear crazy, but that's because people don't realise how carefully calculated they usually are. If you don't believe me, ask why there still hasn't been a large-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Because South Korea is cowardly and would surrender if pushed? No. Because North Korea has a very good idea of how all the major players will react and plans accordingly.

Take the sinking of the Cheonan, for example. If North Korea had been "crazy" it would have sunk the patrol ship in an obvious way and/or said "haha, we did it - what cya gonna do about it, punk?" Instead it carried out the attack in a covert way. At first people thought it might have been a mine. Then there was supposition that it was a torpedo attack. And when the report came out there was the usual disagreement because science is never certain and some people don't like anyone allied to the US. So there wasn't enough consensus to take military action and in any event it was too late as too much time had passed from the sinking. This was all perfectly foreseeable.

Similarly the attack on Yeonpyeong was carefully calculated. North Korea knows the South's rules of engagement. It decided to attack a small island that is disputed, rather than a heavily populated part of the mainland. Again, it could have predicted that South Korea wouldn't make an all-out assault in retaliation.

Most democracies, especially ones that aren't especially bullish like South Korea, are easy to predict. They want to avoid war, so you can push them repeatedly if you're careful about it.

Similarly North Korea knows that China will do whatever it can to stop a war, including asking South Korea to turn the cheek time after time, because it prefers a dictatorial regime on its borders, rather than a democratic one.

North Korea can miscalculate, as it seems to think that the more belligerent it is, the more aid it will get. Also the internal power struggle going on can mean that it does things that it wouldn't do if it had a unified, stable government. But it's not crazy in the slightest.

 

[advill]

The situation is becoming more tense as the US and South Korea carry out military exercises while North Korea continues to provoke. This time around, South Korea and the US will retaliate if the North Koreans start shelling or interfere with the military exercises. China is in a dilemma as it support this Kim's regime. Its reportedly call for the 6-Party Talks in December may not be heeded by several parties. There's a limit to tolerance and patience. Let's hope there will not be a major conflict or a war, as that will spell deep trouble for Asia.

 

[Black Legion]

Common knowledge. The north have zip ability to raise revenue to buy weapons and fuel. They were famous for printing super dollars thanks to a printing press from Saddam but were busted by the State Department. They are also one of the biggest produces of dodgy cigs sold in the PRC.

To train manpower you need to spend and spend big, the north spends all its funds just keeping a million men fed and watered. They are in deep deep trouble, they need southern and PRC money/aid to just exist. The current sabre rattling is to try and gain an aid advantage, unfortunately the South are getting tired of playing the same old threat game.

Common knowledge? Nice elaboration. The official position of the US military is that they know all of NK's secrets. Sure the US uses U-2, RC-135 and other spy planes from the Ohsan airbase in SK and in addition has dozens of spy satellites hovering over NK. But in spite of that I remember that a former US ambassador said, who is also a 30 year CIA veteran named Donald Gregg said, and I qoute: the US intelligence on North Korea has been the longest lasting story of failure in the annals of US intelligence. Donald Rumsfeld said also that NK is using underground fibers for communication and that is almost impossible to get actual agents in NK. And yet you know the the exact condition of NK infantry training, the exact time NK pilots get to spend flying, their figures on military budget spending to the point that you know everything goes to food and water. Looking at your 'common knowledge' one would come to a conclusion that NK military is in the state of 1950s with little or no training equipped with wooden guns as they have no money to distribute real weapons to all of its forces.

Yes, NK is a poor country that even doesn't have enough food as they should have, why? Where are all the resources going? They aren't going to food or ice-cream production. Most of them are going to the military, which is the center of NK state/society. Because of NK's isolation, long term western sanctions and its commitment to self-reliance NK developed their own military production for a very long time now and many of their weapons and equipment does come from their domestic production, also a number of those weapons are in fact copies of Chinese and Russian weapons which they use as a platform. Domestic weapons production is the main reason why NK manages to maintain such a large military while their budget is very much limited compared to other countries. But you can't compare those 'dollar' numbers as a criteria for measuring their military power because it's not the same economic or any other structure for comparison.

NK military industry is consisted in three groups: weapon production, production of military supplies, and military-civilian dual-use product manufacturing. Their weapons and munitions industry predate the Korean War. In the early 1990s NK had over 130 plants for guns, ammunition, tanks, APC, warship, biochemical weapons (as they have the third largest stockpile of the same) and other production. To all of that, many of the plants that make consumer production are designed so they can be easily modified for weapons production in case of war. Most of these plants are built underground in the rugged mountainous region of the Jagang-do province and several hydro-power plants exist there as well so it would be a challenging task to cut off power to those facilities.

It's obvious NK's military is certainly NOT a state of the art as they are mostly unable to obtain such, but older ones are. And NK is able to reverse engineer many of those systems and improve and modify them. The North therefor compensates for limited RnD capabilities by producing basic weapons system in large quantities.

The North's problem isn't lack of weapons systems nor do I believe it's the state of the soldiers regarding their fighting abilities. It is logistics. SK gives aid to the North because they don't want the people to starve, especially the ones in rural areas. But without their help I don't think the NK regime would be endangered at all. China gives them the big proportion of needed supplies through aid and trade which is far more essential for them. But talking about war here, if NK invaded the South they would lose. Not because of inferior weapon technology or military power, but in my opinion because of the lack of logistics. And here I do not mean ammunition as do I refer to food, water, medicine, fuel and things like that. I think they are aware of this fact and therefor wouldn't be undertaking such a move in case of an all out weapons exchange between the North and the South. But even without taking large offensive moves towards the South, NK can still cause extensive damage to SK's military and to the US military stationed on the peninsula, not to mention the civilian casualties.

In the end, both NK and SK have much more to lose from a possible all-out conflict then to actually gain something good. And this is one of the main reasons why there hasn't been a war all these years and I hope there want be one now either.