Ukranian Crisis

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Mini-update.

There is a major rebel offensive moving north of Lugansk. Fighting around Bakhmutovka has left at least 14 government troops dead, and vehicles lost. Schastye seems to be encircled or partially encircled. The famous/infamous btln Aydar has taken heavy losses. ~100 soldiers are still encircled on their checkpoints, and are still fighting.

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overlander said:
Chaos and anarchy in Kiev, a man with a gun waks normally in the streets of Kiev, police see perfectly the gun and they make nothing, everybody now can take arms in all Ukraine without being stopped or asked by the police.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH08Y4ZMOZo
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Pretty amazing video. Don't think many police officers in Canada or the U.S. would ignore a guy with a gun in is belt, mind you, I don't speak Ukrainian so maybe I am missing something.
 
John Fedup said:
Pretty amazing video. Don't think many police officers in Canada or the U.S. would ignore a guy with a gun in is belt, mind you, I don't speak Ukrainian so maybe I am missing something.
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They speak russian as most people do in Kiev , one of the times the man ask to policemen "where is the parliament" ? and they answer without problem, one of the consequences of maidan is that police lost all authority in Ukraine, they are just to control the traffic and little more.
 
overlander said:
Chaos and anarchy in Kiev, a man with a gun waks normally in the streets of Kiev, police see perfectly the gun and they make nothing, everybody now can take arms in all Ukraine without being stopped or asked by the police.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH08Y4ZMOZo
Click to expand...

You mean like in the other half country where people are running around openly with ATGMs, tanks and heavy artillery and the official police does nothing...;)

Although The video is kind of disturbing. How restrictive are the weapon laws in Ukraine?
 
Waylander said:
You mean like in the other half country where people are running around openly with ATGMs, tanks and heavy artillery and the official police does nothing...;)

Although The video is kind of disturbing. How restrictive are the weapon laws in Ukraine?
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Ukraine does not have a right to bear arms. I don't know the details, but I do know the laws are quite restrictive. I also know that they have a serious problem controlling weapons right now, ever since the right-wingers broke open those MVD arsenals. It's been ridiculous. Remember they've handed out weapons to various volunteer formations. Right Sector is also well armed, even though it technically doesn't belong to any government organization. And a lot of the time when the volunteers come back from the war zone, they take their weapons with them. There have been multiple instances of cops pulling someone over to discover RPGs, machine guns, etc. in the trunk of their car. I also know the Maydan Self-Defense Force is armed and has been involved in several ugly incidents, including a shoot-out.

Actually there was a great video where a guy dressed up like a separatist, and with a fake but real-looking gun went around Cherkasy asking various people for 1) directions to government buildings 2) where he can find his separatist brothers, and 3) whether they would mind if they took over the government administration buildings. He wasn't stopped by police until he actually got to the government administration building. Most of the civilians not only didn't call the cops, but readily provided directions to government buildings, didn't know where his separatist brothers were and didn't seem to care whether he was going to capture government buildings.

So yeah, it's bad. There's a reason Poland canceled the simplified visa process with Ukraine.
 
John Fedup said:
Pretty amazing video. Don't think many police officers in Canada or the U.S. would ignore a guy with a gun in is belt, mind you, I don't speak Ukrainian so maybe I am missing something.
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You have open carry laws in many US states so I don't see the difference.
 
KiwiRob said:
You have open carry laws in many US states so I don't see the difference.
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I'm not sure what the circumstances of that particular video are, but in general there is a problem with illegal fire arms, illegal paramilitaries, and a general breakdown of the (flimsy to begin with) legal system when it comes to dealing with ultra-nationalists, and members of various volunteer formations.
 
KiwiRob said:
You have open carry laws in many US states so I don't see the difference.
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That is true depending on the state but for those that don't, cops woul be asking questions. Ukraine doesn't have carry laws so that's the difference but if the police are ignoring armed citizens I guess the point is moot.
 
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feanor, what do you think of the continuous violent incident at donetsk area ? localized incident or prelude to another kiev offensive ? do you think kiev's military ready to resume offensive operations ?

theres also rumors about russia continuing it's covert military aid again, after it was stopped during minks meeting..

what i find strange is why Other nations have to pay for ukraine's unpaid energy bill.. is it some kind of loan by EU ?
 
dprijadi said:
feanor, what do you think of the continuous violent incident at donetsk area ? localized incident or prelude to another kiev offensive ? do you think kiev's military ready to resume offensive operations ?

theres also rumors about russia continuing it's covert military aid again, after it was stopped during minks meeting..

what i find strange is why Other nations have to pay for ukraine's unpaid energy bill.. is it some kind of loan by EU ?
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I would question the UA's ability to even conduct a coordinated defense of the territory they now occupy, much less extending their fragile positions AND, unless Kiev has some new ability to better neutralize separatist firepower, direct and indirect, the result will be more shattered UA formations.
Then you need to consider, morale id imagine is probably very low, after numerous setbacks, and after watching comrades killed and maimed for very little tangible gains, who could blame them?
And it seems the UA units that are willing to fight find themselves outmatched and out maneuvered on the field, while receiving little support from supporting or neighboring units. If they attack, they'll only be wasting what combat power they have left, it'll be like the charge of the light brigade.
 
dprijadi said:
feanor, what do you think of the continuous violent incident at donetsk area ? localized incident or prelude to another kiev offensive ? do you think kiev's military ready to resume offensive operations ?

theres also rumors about russia continuing it's covert military aid again, after it was stopped during minks meeting..

what i find strange is why Other nations have to pay for ukraine's unpaid energy bill.. is it some kind of loan by EU ?
Click to expand...

I think Kiev is done attacking. The OSCE is demarcating a border between the two sides. The rebels are seizing this chance to push back the government forces in Lugansk region, while the OSCE is in Donbass. They will quietly but forcefully seize whatever they can north of Lugansk.
 
Ukraine snap elections.. Early reputable exit polls suggesting big swing westwards, with Poroshenko gaining somewhere around 23%. Yatseniuk's poluar front party gaining up to 21% with Samopomich party looking around 11-14% of the vote. Currently, who is fourth is not yet as clear, with some nationalists and former associates of Yanukovich possibly in this position.

Voter turnout lower than expected at 53%.

Does this mean 'lustration' has succeeded?
 
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