Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The ukrainian army is the one escalating the conflict which leads to casualties. Also, there is a string of bomb assassinations of rebel commanders.

Now what's next? I guess Russia floods the front with good ol' rocket artillery?

Thank god Hillary didn't win, who knows what kind of mainstream media anti-Russia shrieking would ensue. Then again, Trump is needlessly escalating against Iran, so ...
The rebels have all the rocket-arty they need. Russia is providing train-loads of munitions. Direct Russian intervention would be necessary if Ukraine launched a full fledged offensive. But given the continued emphasis on the Minsk agreements, and Trump's desire to make a deal with Putin, a blatant aggressive move like that by Ukraine could backfire spectacularly.

Which leaves us where we are today. Every time Poroshenko goes on a foreign visit to remind western leaders that Ukraine still exists, the shelling intensifies so that he has something to point to when he sells his inability to stop embezzling western loan money as a wartime necessity.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
More info. & analysis from Russia. It seems their intell. collection is active (or they make it appear so) in the rear areas. I doubt that the RF will just watch & allow the rebels being cut off from the border & surrounded. Putin won't hesitate to use aviation if the situation gets sour for the defenders. The military shot down possible RF drone in the ATO zone. Some new footage from the front & on the army condition, foreign "volunteers", etc. starts at 30 & 2.53 in this video. Get ready Belarus- Ukraine is Coming Kiev regime may get abandoned by USA
 
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Atasas

Banned Member
On a point of "political" propaganda...
Why don't you russians talk your great affairs in russian on russian board with russian links on them?

Ukrainians have "failed to protect own country" by having surrendered nuclear weapons in good faith of putin and western (especially UK mediation) promise of protection in 1991

They've allowed russian military base in Sevostopol... but here comes the political kicker: "
as much as you'd feed wild wolf, it'll always look back at the wild forest and he will bite the hand that feeds it eventually"

It is a war, justifiable by homo-sovieticus only and I, as much as I try to differentiate commies from russians, find myself being wrong time and time again.

Whole conflict - war is "justifiable and fully supported by military of putin's empire", but having civilized human perspective it is way harder to brush aside. Normal people do think about own family, nation, country and needs be appreciated by any self respecting human for the other civilized national. Terrorists are excluded- they make the choice to be killing for whatever gains- they need to be wiped out of the surface of the world.

Trump?- making deal with putin? "yeah", although he doesn't strike as very bright politician, he will listen to his advisors, some of whom are of military background, that will not start spanking of "rebels" directly, but deal cutting- not on a table! Hillary ... I care not for if's, however Donald isn't that dumb.

One thing I would like to see as an achievement, them "rebel" monkeys (whatever they are called), that failed to die by bombing own each other is to see them exterminated for killing very many Dutch and other civilized world citizens on MH17
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
On a point of "political" propaganda...
Why don't you russians talk your great affairs in russian on russian board with russian links on them?
This is a public forum, open to all users who follow the rules. It's not your place to tell others where they can talk about what. ;)

If you would like to participate in the conversation, you're more then welcome to. If not, that's up to you.

Ukrainians have "failed to protect own country" by having surrendered nuclear weapons in good faith of putin and western (especially UK mediation) promise of protection in 1991
Don't be silly. Nuclear arsenals are expensive and difficult to maintain. The Ukrainian military couldn't keep it's planes flying or it's trucks operational. You really think they could have maintained a nuclear arsenal? The sheer cost would have broken the budget. Nevermind the political ramifications, and questions of security and technology. Not to mention that even if Ukraine had nukes, what good would they be? Nuke Sevastopol?

They've allowed russian military base in Sevostopol... but here comes the political kicker: "
as much as you'd feed wild wolf, it'll always look back at the wild forest and he will bite the hand that feeds it eventually"

It is a war, justifiable by homo-sovieticus only and I, as much as I try to differentiate commies from russians, find myself being wrong time and time again.
This comes off as a personal rant. What are you trying to say here?

Whole conflict - war is "justifiable and fully supported by military of putin's empire", but having civilized human perspective it is way harder to brush aside. Normal people do think about own family, nation, country and needs be appreciated by any self respecting human for the other civilized national. Terrorists are excluded- they make the choice to be killing for whatever gains- they need to be wiped out of the surface of the world.
The term "terrorists" gets used a lot by Ukrainian state media. However the behavior of the rebels in eastern Ukraine, and of Russian military personnel, are not consistent with typical behaviors of identified terrorist groups. Not all illegal violence is automatically terrorism. And given the misbehavior of Ukrainian "volunteer" btlns, it's hard to take the label of "terrorist" seriously when it's applied to the rebels. The recent trials of Tornado btln service members, and the laundry list of criminal offenses committed by Aydar btln are not Russian propaganda. The Ukrainian government is accusing and charging them of doing these things. And it's only the tip of the iceberg. Much remains buried or ignored.

Trump?- making deal with putin? "yeah", although he doesn't strike as very bright politician, he will listen to his advisors, some of whom are of military background, that will not start spanking of "rebels" directly, but deal cutting- not on a table! Hillary ... I care not for if's, however Donald isn't that dumb.
Obama maneuvered himself into a bad place in Syria. Some of the statements Trump has made have been interpreted as a willingness to trade on positions in Ukraine for something in the Middle East. It's not a question of stupidity, it's a question of priorities.

One thing I would like to see as an achievement, them "rebel" monkeys (whatever they are called), that failed to die by bombing own each other is to see them exterminated for killing very many Dutch and other civilized world citizens on MH17
Careful, you're very close to flamebaiting here. This forum is for rational discussion, primarily about military affairs. Read the rules and enjoy your stay.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
Atasas said: "They've allowed russian military base in Sevostopol... but here comes the political kicker: "as much as you'd feed wild wolf, it'll always look back at the wild forest and he will bite the hand that feeds it eventually"- If they didn't renew that lease, $100M a year would've been lost possibly with entire Crimea. In the Soviet period, Ukraine consumed almost as much as it produced; after the breakup, Russia assumed all foreign dept of the USSR & paid it off without Ukraine contributing a cent, while she subsidized Kiev on gas prices, AN-70 R&D & military hardware orders. Finally, regardless of who shot down that B-777-200, the ultimate blame is on Ukrainian aviation authorities & Malaysian Airlines who allowed it to fly over the war zone.
Stepan Bandera — supporter of terror OSCE blames Kiev for genocide in Donbass
Trump wants to sell Russia a "dead cat"
 
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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The tone of some of the responses in this thread need addressing.

Its a fine line but anything that ventures into posturing about one side or the other is at risk of getting deleted by the Mods
 

vldbzh

New Member
There's the facts and there's the assessment or analysis. With facts there is a "truth". With analysis it gets more complicated. On the subject of Avdeevka, even bellingcat (for all their anti-Russian stance) has confirmed presence of Ukrainian armor in places it shouldn't be. And there's even photos of OSCE vehicles and personnel right next to the Ukrainian tanks.
Probably the Ukrainian commanders have got common sense and concentrated units for the case of breakthrough of separatist/Russian forces. What can be said about constant tank firing and heavy artillery shelling from separatists/Russians? That is a significant breach of the agreements.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Probably the Ukrainian commanders have got common sense and concentrated units for the case of breakthrough of separatist/Russian forces. What can be said about constant tank firing and heavy artillery shelling from separatists/Russians? That is a significant breach of the agreements.
OSCE is reporting ceasefire breaches from both sides. There are also well-documented cases of Ukrainian volunteer btlns breaching the ceasefire against the orders of their own command. Finally Ukraine has been pushing a creeping offensive where they occupy a part of no-man's land under ceasefire, then use it to attack rebel positions as a way to force them back and gain ground. If you're following this conflict, recent events at the Svetlodarsk area are a good illustration. Last years flare-up at Yasinovataya is another good one.

That having been said, the rebels have violated the ceasefire repeatedly and in several cases have used Ukrainian cease-fire violations as an excuse for offensive moves of their own.

At this point Russia, and in theory the rebel leadership, want to see the conflict in Eastern Ukraine frozen, like the situation in Georgia or the situation in Transnestria (the latter of course would be ideal). The Minsk Accords as they are currently signed, are very disadvantageous for the Ukrainian elites and are mostly a product of East-West negotiations in which Ukraine was present as a junior partner at best. The worst situation for Ukrainian leadership now is one where the war ends without a clear victory. It would mean the west could threaten to cut their funding if they don't deliver on the reforms they've been promising. It would also mean that the destroyed economy and deteriorating human rights situation, as well as the massive rise in crime, can no longer be written off on the war.

For Putin this outcome can be described as the best realistic option. It would mean Russia could reduce the resources they're pouring into the rebel armies. It would also mean that normal economic activity can resume in more of the rebel-held areas. Finally it would let him normalize relations with the EU, many countries in which are tired of the sanctions and the conflict between the bigger players, and just want their trade with Russia restored to pre-war levels. The biggest obstacle to this is that the Kiev government understands this and consequently maintains a level of tension at the front that makes de-escalation effectively impossible.

Ultimately it's important to remember that the rebels are weaker the Ukraine. They always have been. They haven't launched a single successful offensive of their own. Each time the Russian military had to step in to save them from defeat or finish their half-done effort.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
How was Russia stepping in? I thought they provided equipment, "volunteers" etc. In what ways was the russian army directly involved during the period of all-out fighting?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
..; after the breakup, Russia assumed all foreign dept of the USSR & paid it off without Ukraine contributing a cent, ...
Actually, there was an agreement between all the former Soviet republics except the Baltic states, the Treaty on Succession to the USSR’s State Debt and Assets, which divided up the debt (Ukraine's share was 16.37%) - but Russia unilaterally abrogated it, by taking possession of the USSR's foreign assets (e.g. embassies & consulates), putting the bank handling foreign debt payments under Russian law & financial oversight & assuming sole control of all the USSR's overseas financial holdings (much less than the debt).

The government of Russia at the time decided that the advantages of being the legal successor to the USSR & thus inheriting the USSR's international treaties, UN Security Council seat, etc. were worth the price of taking on liability for the 38.66% of the debt not already allocated to it. So don't make it out to be some great act of kindness. It was a calculation of costs & benefits which Russia thought was in Russia's favour.

The only CIS country unwilling to accept this Russian takeover was Ukraine, BTW.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
How was Russia stepping in? I thought they provided equipment, "volunteers" etc. In what ways was the russian army directly involved during the period of all-out fighting?
At basically every key juncture.

The Izvarino pocket was created by a rebel unit seizing Saur-Mogila, but the destruction of the Ukrainian task force in the pocket was done by massive quantities of Russian artillery firing often from the Russian side of the border. The scenes of nearly apocalyptic burned out Ukrainian positions from that time period are the result.

At Ilovaysk 3 Russian btln tactical groups, at least one of them VDV, were the force that established both the outer and inner cordons around the mixed Ukrainian task force. The result was a brief negotiation followed by the Ukrainian party allegedly violating the agreement by trying to take heavy weapons and armored vehicles out of the pocket. The Ukrainian forces were then shredded by Russian fire in the process of trying to break out. 2 T-72B3 tanks were destroyed in the fighting, and one was abandoned by Russian forces, possibly due to battle damage or mechanical failure but the details are unclear. It was later retaken by rebel forces who (idiotically) displayed it to Russian state TV as a Ukrainian tank upgraded by the west (they didn't know Russian tanks had French thermals).

At the same time as the Ilovaysk disaster, a Russian mech unit entered Novo-azovsk on the Black Sea, towards Mariupol'. A Ukrainian National Guard btln column was dispatched from Mariupol' but either one or two trucks in the head of the column were disabled by anti-material rifle fire, after which they took sustained machine gun fire. The btln retreated in disorder, fleeing through Mariupol' (spreading some panic along the way). Novoazovsk is small and it's possible to keep things fairly quiet. However despite Mariupol' being left completely undefended no effort was made to take it. Likely because in a major city it would be too hard to hide that the entire effort is just Russian military. At that point no rebel forces were present in the area.

During the fighting for the Donetsk airport in the winter of 2015, continued rebel attacks led to them taking one terminal, the other still being in Ukrainian hands. Defense of the terminal was intense, and Ukraine managed to continue resupplying the structure, though at a considerable cost. Russian BM-30 Smerch MLRS were brought in at night, allegedly 2 of them. They were spotted and filmed by a civilian in Donetsk. They used allegedly thermobaric rockets, and completely annihilated the second terminal. Whjen the next day the rebels "took" the terminal there was no building left, no wall left standing, only rubble.

During the battle for Debal'tsevo sustained rebel attacks failed to close the pocket, and the town of Logvinovo remained in Ukrainian army hands. A Russian infantry unit, something elite maybe SpN or VDV, was used to clear the town, following which rebel infantry and reporters were allowed in, and the rebels claimed they took the town. Meanwhile the road to Artemovsk was cut by a Russian tank btln tactical group from the 5th Tank Bde. Wounded from the unit were later rewarded in a Rostov-na-Donu hospital, and footage of a column of T-72B3 tanks was even taken by the famous/infamous Graham Phillips.

These are just a handful of those that are too large to deny.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Eduard Basurin: near Avdeevka retreating soldiers shot by Right Sector- if true, no surprise here!
Italian geopolitical analyst Marco Carlo predicted the collapse of Ukraine in 2017. IMO, some of it may turn out differently, but he has a point! Either way, Kiev is in unwinnable situation in Donbass. After Syria & Iraq, the world's attention is now on how the new US administration is going to deal with Iran, NK, & China.
How about posting some reputable links instead of propaganda mouthpieces.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
Sorry, I hope these about foreign trade & import of coal will do. This article is on a liberal site that can hardly be accused of being a propaganda mouthpiece. Nor can this quote from a non-Russian analyst:
The evidence of Tochka-U weapons being deployed in areas with dense civilian populations could be proof of “war crimes taking place,” security analyst and antiterrorism expert Charles Shoebridge believes. "..it would be difficult to use a weapon of this magnitude without having some impact on civilian areas,” Shoebridge told RT.
Ratification of the Treaty of the Association of Ukraine with the EU in the Netherlands have set new conditions and made a surprise announcement
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Eduard Basurin: near Avdeevka retreating soldiers shot by Right Sector- if true, no surprise here!
Italian geopolitical analyst Marco Carlo predicted the collapse of Ukraine in 2017. IMO, some of it may turn out differently, but he has a point! Either way, Kiev is in unwinnable situation in Donbass. After Syria & Iraq, the world's attention is now on how the new US administration is going to deal with Iran, NK, & China.
Russian "experts" have been predicting the collapse of Ukraine since 2014. I wouldn't pay much attention to this. There are countries in much worse shape then Ukraine and they're not collapsing. Though, sadly, we can say with some degree of confidence that things for Ukrainians will get worse before they get better.

The coal situation in particular is a dangerous one.
 

vldbzh

New Member
How was Russia stepping in? I thought they provided equipment, "volunteers" etc. In what ways was the Russian army directly involved during the period of all-out fighting?
This is an Ukrainian source about such matters: informnapalm.org/en/category/top-investigations/.
Probably Russia is afraid to pull their armed forces out of Ukraine because the separatists army would be destroyed in couple of weeks after that.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
Update on MH-17 shootdown:
Bellingcat выÑÑнила Ð¸Ð¼Ñ Ð¾Ñ€Ð³Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð° перевозки «Ñбившего MH-17 Бука» :: Политика :: Ð*БК
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-...-major-general-linked-to-the-downing-of-mh17/
Energy crisis update: ВлаÑти Украины ввели чрезвычайные меры из-заÂ*ÑнергетичеÑкого кризиÑа :: Политика :: Ð*БК
The Right Sector is doing Putin's work of destabilizing Kiev which is paralyzed in this issue & can only issue emergency decree. If this is not a failing state, I don't know what is!
It is worth noting that Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko has recently set out concerns about the growing level of crime in the country. "The criminal situation in most regions raises considerable concerns. This is due to the war, unemployment and disorganization of law enforcement agencies. Last year, 1.124,401 criminal proceedings were instituted. The number of registered criminal proceedings has increased by five percent up to 600,000 proceedings a year," he said. At the same time, Lutsenko added, the number of unsolved crimes continues to grow as well. In 2013, 45 percent of crimes were solved, in 2014 - 44 percent, and in 2015 - 39 percent.
http://www.pravdareport.com/news/wo...136880-ukraine_russia-0/#sthash.yLinFyFx.dpuf
Russia ready to welcome specialists of Ukraine's Antonov enterprise
On Crimea: http://izvestia.ru/news/665105- their answer couldn't be any different than that! Also,
The requirement "to return the Crimea" is just as "impracticable as if Russia demanded the US should return Alaska," the official added. If USA wants Crimea returned to Ukraine, Russia wants Alaska back - PravdaReport
https://lenta.ru/news/2017/02/15/bez_paniki/
30 foreign mercenaries from Poland arrive in Donbas:
Marochko also said during the briefing that the People's Militia found Ukrainian artillery on the contact line of the Donbas. The locations of two 152-mm artillery systems and 120 and 82-millimeter mortars were found in the village of Luhanskoye three kilometers from the line of contact. http://www.pravdareport.com/news/ho...73-donbas_mercenaries-0/#sthash.6AA937J9.dpuf
 
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Unfortunately I do not have any updates on the Ukrainian OrBat. I have some info about their recent equipment purchases, and confirmation that they're re-manufacturing BTR-70s into BTR-3s, indirectly confirming earlier news that they can't really produce the APC from scratch, any more. I know they've basically completed the process of merging various separate btlns into existing bdes. I know some new bdes were formed, including a "mountain" bde which is really just an infantry bde without much armor.
Finally found an update on the Ukr Orbat and to some extent - recent regional areas of deployment (by ISW Late 2016)

Very interesting and detailed (referenced) report - worth a skim Feanor. Illustrates the command structure, now that 'certain' battalions have been integrated (I.e. 10th Mtn-Assault Bgde)

Obviously doesn't answer the actual TO&E related questions, but somewhat helpful I found

Ukrainian Military Orbat 2016
 
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