The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
personaldesas
Active Member
@KipPotapych So would it be fair to say we land here: headlines oversell, substance holds more or less up, though we might disagree with the interpretation made. His statements were made in a public-facing forum within a private club, he likely got fired over them, and nobody in this thread I think is disputing his read is directionally reasonable, though I might weight it a bit heavier than you do. Is that a fair summary so far?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
- Headlines (in this case) do not oversell, they sell what is not there (eg, no dissent)
- Substance does not hold up, in spite of words being directly quoted (eg, inequality improved, not worsened, 180-opposite, not “more or less”);
- There was no interpretation made by the media because information was selected and presented in this particular manner for a reason (eg, you cannot quote partial sentences and interpret those parts);
- Sure, public setting, but not in the sense of how it is reported (I will settle on “oversell” here though);
- Probably got fired because of it (will settle on “oversell” here again - eg, this is not a “crackdown”);
- I think his read is very reasonable (as opposed to what is being reported);
- Weight? I think we devoted way more time to it than it is worth; yet, the discussion is likely helpful.
Is that a fair(er) summary? Haha.
I will provide another, though different, example of headlines and reports selling what is not there:
Note how Google attached a note “highly cited”. It has been spreading like a forrest fire. Scroll down the list and there are numerous media outlets, reddit, X, facebook, other social media, you name it, with the exact or somewhat modified headline. The pattern is one and the same, always is.
The “highly cited” WP article via the archive: https://archive.is/xf6Ho
I should note that I (still) see Prokopenko as a very reasonable analyst. This article is strike one though, laughing. Seriously though, it may be two strikes in one go.
Here is a real, data-driven analysis of the subject at hand:
So is the report “more or less” in the ballpark? Substance? The answer is no, it is not in the ballpark and the substance is simply wrong. It ignores (purposefully avoids?) numerous (and obvious) factors. The data in the future may show that they have something there (highly unlikely, in my opinion), but today the article is complete horseshit. Does it really matter though? Not really. Yet, at the same time, it does a lot for public perception. One thing is to think that Russia, while, very realistically, under a lot of stress (from all angles), still doing relatively fine; it is another to think that it is going to collapse, Putin will be overthrown or drop dead from some disease he most certainly has, their banking system is about to evaporate, if not due to the WB strikes, then this bank run that is happening for sure, oh, and look, there is this guy publicly dissenting and proving it all right, the crackdown of the elite, and then there is September mobilization coming and… all the signs are there, etc. It is what it is, what are you gonna do.
personaldesas
Active Member
@KipPotapych I don't agree with all of it, but as you said, we've spent a lot of time on this, and I'm not keen to relitigate media analysis. I also don't think where we differ matters much for the bigger picture.
What I'd actually be curious about: is there reporting on this you think did a good job? Or do you reckon secondary sources are a lost cause here altogether?
What I'd actually be curious about: is there reporting on this you think did a good job? Or do you reckon secondary sources are a lost cause here altogether?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Lol. They would. Though they should really address their concerns to Apple and the interpretation the company made of what I was actually trying to say, haha.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Good job? Probably not, but I did not read everything that is out there. Of the very few I read, I think the Moscow Times did the best job, even the headline was semi-decent (in Russian):
В главном госбанке Кремля спрогнозировали поражение России в экономической «войне на истощение» с Западом - Русская служба The Moscow Times
Россия не сможет выиграть конкуренцию в «войне на истощение», когда Украину поддерживает западный мир.
ru.themoscowtimes.com
Also, how many outlets that wrote on the subject cited the original as the primary source for their articles? That tells you how many (potentially) read the text.
Overall, no, secondary sources are not a lost cause, though I always want to see the original if the message is of any importance and I actually see no value to reading secondary if the primary source is readily available. Many outlets often do simply outstanding job reporting (I cited dozens of articles here, if not (and likely) hundreds) and credit is due where it is. Sometimes, these same outlets post trash, whether they are a primary or secondary source.
What I don’t like is these “fishing expeditions” that are very counterproductive. In this case, it is clear that some read the Moscow Times article (or the Bell?) and reported “doom” fragments from there, without doing more research (into the original source) or even understanding the MT article to begin with (imagine taking excerpts from excerpts); the rest copied each other and we got what we got.
Sometimes, journalists go looking for a story and they certainly find one and often exactly what they were looking for (I am referring to bias here). For example, I am not sure how that bank-run story came to life. I mean it is complete trash. Yet, a respectable outlet, talking to supposedly respectable people, who for whatever reason do not correct the authors… especially disappointed in Prokopenko. She really knows better. Some of the others likely have no expertise on the subject matter to comment at all, but, hey, when has it ever stopped these people (this is a big problem in genral). If you look at the author though, things become pretty clear. Her past printed history clearly shows that it is not just bias, but a state of mind, a delusion. She most certainly has an agenda and is not shy about it. Note that this is the primary source breaking the news though. What would one expect from secondary sources?
More from Kluge on the subject (I didn’t see these comments when I posted yesterday, even though they were already there):
From the comment section for completeness:
And from another post:
I love how a lemming, who describes himself as an economist, asking in comments if the “charts are adjusted for inflation”. Not that it has anything to do with anything, but it sure is cute.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
While this belongs in the Middle East thread, posting it here and quoting myself because of the enormous vibes of the early 2022 and what I talked about in the quoted post:
About the only difference between now and 2022 is that now is run by clowns.
Edit: I guess it should also be noted that the clowns are treating the “allies” and the foes alike, without differentiation, which is also different.
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Since this discussion took place just yesterday, I want to add the following; it is unrelated to defense and/or geopolitics, but it directly relates to the problem I described above and noted that the problem exists in general and undermines credibility of mass media. These “fishing expeditions” is one of the main reasons why many have complete distrust in everything that is published and refer to social media personalities for an “explanation” and finding “truth”. “Expert” is a loose term nowadays because of it.
From: Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) on X
Two stories in the world of economics in the past couple of weeks made some noise (one as visible from the thread cited). In the second, a respectable outlet published an article where journalists took it upon themselves (and their own expertise) to basically trash a Nobel prize winner. This issue affects all fields. Probably none as the events related to this thread (likely not even close), but nonetheless. I will try to expand on it and tie it directly to this thread in the next few days (probably) with real world examples and challenges that face journalists as well.
rsemmes
Active Member
Ukraine counterattacking NE of Orijiv to retake control of T0408?
It would make sense for Ukraine, and to push SW away from T0403. It would make sense for Russia to get a wider, and closer, front to harass those roads.
It would make sense for Ukraine, and to push SW away from T0403. It would make sense for Russia to get a wider, and closer, front to harass those roads.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Not sure what to make of this TWZ article. A possible diplomatic meeting requiring logistical support from a C-17? I guess we will see soon.
www.twz.com
USAF C-17 Makes Extremely Rare Visit To Moscow
The C-17 flew to the Russian capital from a base just outside Washington, D.C., with a stop in Riga, Latvia.
www.twz.com
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Some more information regarding my earlier post 15130.
PachkaSigaret
Member
The American flags were removed from the embassy after his 4 hour visit.
All U.S. flags removed from the American embassy Moscow.
Interesting
It does beg the question, how often are there US military flights to Russia.
I’d guess it’s a rare thing , but then again there would still be an administrative function with the embassy that needs basic stuff to function which you would not source locally.
Either way time for this conflict to end.
Cheers S
rsemmes
Active Member
Not really...
The American Center in Moscow, maybe you could double-check next time?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Trump on Ratcliffe’s visit:
PS dementia is a bitch.
PS dementia is a bitch.
Hoover
Active Member
Just a remote question:
The former soil of the Dnjepro-river and the reservoir were declared as swampy, muddy ground, so no attacks across them were made.
My question: Did the dry weather her and the heat in southern Ukraine couased a change in the soil conditions? Is it still that swampy and muddy that it can´t be crossed for example by light motorized units? I am speaking of the area Nikopol to Malokaternyvka.
The former soil of the Dnjepro-river and the reservoir were declared as swampy, muddy ground, so no attacks across them were made.
My question: Did the dry weather her and the heat in southern Ukraine couased a change in the soil conditions? Is it still that swampy and muddy that it can´t be crossed for example by light motorized units? I am speaking of the area Nikopol to Malokaternyvka.
rsemmes
Active Member
You mean the armoured attack that is almost never happening since 2023?
Do you think Ukraine has troops for another Kursk offensive? Does Russia have logistics (meaning, wants to use them) for another active front or should use extra resources in any one of the already active fronts?
You already pointed it out: "no attacks across them were made". Another Krinki?
rsemmes
Active Member
I wonder if theguardian just copy and paste the "Five O'clock Follies"...
Russian forces are putting pressure on the cities of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – all critical strongholds for Ukraine. According to open-source mapping group Deep State, Moscow’s troops have been infiltrating deeper into Kostiantynivka, with the Ukrainians weeding them out from houses, basements and ruins. Russia was also stepping up its air and artillery attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk to prepare for a targeted offensive on those cities, Deep State said.
www.theguardian.com
Ukraine clearing Kostiantinivka? In what fairy tale?
Ukraine has reached an agreement with Germany for the delivery of 600 PAC-2 interceptor missiles for its Patriot air-defense systems in 2027 and 2028, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday.
tvpworld.com
So, in theory, not "secure", 25 a month. Is Russia firing 12 missiles a month?
Ukraine has recently received a small number of US-made Patriot interceptors. theguardian again.
According to Zelenski, because US does not confirm that. Where are they coming from? Small like... 3? Already in transit, like one moth ago?
Ukraine appears to be slowly losing the war against Russia. M. Fedorov.
That is a declaration against interests... Or starting an election campaign. Also...
Kyiv has a window of several months to make key decisions needed to turn the tide in its favour.
-The world known "window of opportunity.
Engrained corruption and patronage networks, as well as a lack of political independence in government institutions were also holding the country back.
-But it will soon join the EU.
Ukraine still had "every chance" to win but urgently needed a plan to end the war.
-Is Ukraine fighting, not to win, without a plan?
Fedorov says he was a driving force behind a drone campaign this year targeting Russia's fuel and military logistics in the occupied part of southern Ukraine.
Bringing spending forward (that drone campaign) had left a $27 billion hole in the ministry's budget, for which donor-dependent Ukraine does not have a solution.
-No money to fight the war, no plan to fight the war.
Ukraine is still pushing E from the T0408, Rivne area.
Russian forces are putting pressure on the cities of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – all critical strongholds for Ukraine. According to open-source mapping group Deep State, Moscow’s troops have been infiltrating deeper into Kostiantynivka, with the Ukrainians weeding them out from houses, basements and ruins. Russia was also stepping up its air and artillery attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk to prepare for a targeted offensive on those cities, Deep State said.
Ukraine war briefing: Reboot of ‘fortress belt’ defences as Zelenskyy visits frontline
Two modern commanders appointed on Donetsk front after dismissal of ‘Soviet-era’ Oleksandr Syrskyi as head of military. What we know on day 1,645
www.theguardian.com
Ukraine has reached an agreement with Germany for the delivery of 600 PAC-2 interceptor missiles for its Patriot air-defense systems in 2027 and 2028, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday.
Ukraine secures 600 Patriot missiles from Germany
Kyiv says it still needs more interceptors to counter Russia’s intensifying ballistic-missile attacks.
tvpworld.com
Ukraine has recently received a small number of US-made Patriot interceptors. theguardian again.
According to Zelenski, because US does not confirm that. Where are they coming from? Small like... 3? Already in transit, like one moth ago?
Ukraine appears to be slowly losing the war against Russia. M. Fedorov.
That is a declaration against interests... Or starting an election campaign. Also...
Kyiv has a window of several months to make key decisions needed to turn the tide in its favour.
-The world known "window of opportunity.
Engrained corruption and patronage networks, as well as a lack of political independence in government institutions were also holding the country back.
-But it will soon join the EU.
Ukraine still had "every chance" to win but urgently needed a plan to end the war.
-Is Ukraine fighting, not to win, without a plan?
Fedorov says he was a driving force behind a drone campaign this year targeting Russia's fuel and military logistics in the occupied part of southern Ukraine.
Bringing spending forward (that drone campaign) had left a $27 billion hole in the ministry's budget, for which donor-dependent Ukraine does not have a solution.
-No money to fight the war, no plan to fight the war.
Ukraine is still pushing E from the T0408, Rivne area.
personaldesas
Active Member
the drought has dried the topsoil, but it has not made that stretch crossable
User: Can someone pass me the butter please?
@rsemmes: You mean the butter that's been a staple since the 7th century Irish monks perfected the churn?
have you considered that European butter has 2% more fat than American butter?
You already pointed it out: "pass me the butter." But have you calculated the butyric acid ratios?
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
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Ukraine's counter-offensive north of Krasniy Liman is developing, with Ukrainian forces recapturing Stavki and threatening all Russian presence west of the Nitrius with encirclement. It remains to be seen whether Russia devotes additional resources to this, or withdraws. In my opinion this is a clear consequence of failing to secure the flanks around Krasniy Liman before attempting a big push into Krasniy Liman itself a few weeks ago. It's yet another clear example of Russia succeeding when they work the flanks and failing when they try to simply push on an objective. We saw this play out in Kupyansk and to some extent in Toretsk, though there the town was ultimately taken, Russia took many extra months to secure it. We saw the opposite of this in battles like Konstantinovka, Artemovsk/Bakhmut, Selidovo, and Avdeevka. And we saw both patterns play out in Ugledar where attempts to just storm the town failed repeatedly but the town was taken without much of a fight once Russia outflanked the 72nd Mech Bde defending it.