The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Sorry to disappoint.
I am, obviously, not as well educated, and mannered, as others.
Won't debate your education but manners....perhaps, but to be fair, I would need to go back and review your comments. Some seem a little offside. As other senior members know, I am not exactly innocent....missing Paul to keep me right side up.
 

Redshift

Active Member
I am starting to feel that I am responding to something that is not exactly on-topic (but people keep clapping your words).

And not purely as a moral position, it's also about the negative externalities and secondary and tertiary effects it has on everyone, including plenty of people who have nothing to do with either country.
-The not-moral doesn't look naive. On the other hand, the UK is burning (and Spain), plenty of people have nothing to do with it and it is naive to think that the peasants will not pay for the decisions taken by the governments; not necessarily conquest, not necessarily invasion.

That doesn't justify conquest.
-I find naive trying to find justification.

Conquest paying off makes the world worse for everyone in it, not just the two countries fighting, who have their people and economies shredded.
-It maybe so, but everyone trying "conquest"
does so thinking that it is going to pay off
and as far as I can remember, they may do it for the honour of the country, but never for the good of the people.
Changing the government in Kiev was good for the Russian people or for the Ukrainian people? Was that ever a reason for the invasion?

-Force works, I think it is naive not to recognize that; fairy tales don't.

I'm happy to hear the argument that this invasion has been a net positive for anyone.
-I don't think anyone can make that argument. Have I ever tried to make anything like that argument?

You are naive, I'm cynical, I am happy with that justification.
You are not cynical, you have a pro Russian position and a very anti Ukraine and the West opinion, nobody is stopping you holding that position but it is incredibly hypocritical to not admit to it.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
You are not cynical, you have a pro Russian position and a very anti Ukraine and the West opinion, nobody is stopping you holding that position but it is incredibly hypocritical to not admit to it.

...night after night Russia strikes Ukraine’s infrastructure with impunity. This tragedy was long foretold, and there are no quick fixes.
-Wait, no analyst mentioned that to Boris? No one was looking at Russian missiles production and NATO interceptors production, future production and sharing it's implications? Because, if it was foretold, that would had been like prodding Ukraine into disaster?

While the military narrative of the war has largely been of cheap mass-produced Ukrainian weapons overwhelming exquisite Russian military hardware, most of the serious damage from Russia’s long-range strikes has come from cruise and ballistic missiles, and Ukraine’s campaign has suffered for want of them.
-I thought it was about the cheap produced Geran. Anyway, the "40 Days" (and everything else?), a wishlist?

It is generally recommended to fire two to three interceptors against each ballistic missile. When you also factor in that the launchers themselves can only protect a relatively small area, and Ukraine is a vast country, then it becomes clear that Kyiv would ideally have three to four times the annual global production capacity of Patriot missiles to protect itself.
-So, it is evident, no geniality, no surprise, that some drones will hit Russia, a country even bigger. And again, no one thought how Ukraine (meaning NATO, obviously) was going to get 3 to 4 times the Russian production of missiles in interceptors?
Or someone did, but those missiles were going to hit Ukraine, anyway.

A portion of Iran’s missiles were also advanced. In one instance, it took 17 Patriot interceptors to defeat a missile.
-I didn't read about that one.

Ukraine is not going to receive enough Patriots between now and the winter to save its critical national infrastructure, irrespective of whether some countries make the political gesture of releasing a few more from their stockpiles.
-Is that the real "window of opportunity" Zelenski was talking about?

Kyiv is trying to convince the US to activate Starlink satellite navigation modules over Russian territory to enable its drones to hunt for the Russian missile launchers.
-Or more Wildberries?

Another line of effort in Kyiv is to attack the production of Russia’s ballistic missiles. These factories are well defended. To succeed, Ukraine’s partners will need to expand the funding and industrial capacity behind Ukraine’s nascent cruise-missile industry, or reopen questions of providing weapons systems .
-To provide a lot more interceptors, a lot more money and materials and a lot more weapons systems. Again, Ukraine 0, NATO +++.
Another point would be if Ukraine can use Starlink, what means Ukraine has to carry it out and how effective it's going to be. Even if it is a "60 Days" campaign against launchers (aircraft?) and missiles factories. Just another wishlist?

The point of the article (in theguardian even if the author works for RUSI) is don't give to Ukraine, forget about Patriots and get our own European system, it is about bloody time.

I am pro-reality, mate.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Once again, another conspiracy theory that UKR is not fighting of its own accord.
No, you are pro-surrender.
You dont seem to grasp just how badly the Ukrainians as a whole dont want to be Russian.
I wrote "prodding", you read conspiracy.
That Ukrainians don't want to be Russian is real enough, where do you read "surrender"?

I am a bit surprised that you seem more interested in what I don't say, that in what RUSI says.
It was foretold? Any thought about that?
If you want to post great news about conspiracies, I don't think you need me.

...
I was just watching how Ukraine hit another Wildberries, in its campaign to destroy Russian missiles, I guess.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
What surrender?
If you can't see the point, I see no point in engaging further with you.
If you see the point & are pretending not to, there's even less point to engaging with you.

(Not my post.)

Before the invasion or after the invasion? At Istanbul or at any negotiation after Istanbul?
The consequences of what "surrender" or of what "conquest" that never existed?
Well, they exist in the press and in some posts here.

Still, everyone is happy with Jack Watling?
 

Redshift

Active Member

...night after night Russia strikes Ukraine’s infrastructure with impunity. This tragedy was long foretold, and there are no quick fixes.
-Wait, no analyst mentioned that to Boris? No one was looking at Russian missiles production and NATO interceptors production, future production and sharing it's implications? Because, if it was foretold, that would had been like prodding Ukraine into disaster?

While the military narrative of the war has largely been of cheap mass-produced Ukrainian weapons overwhelming exquisite Russian military hardware, most of the serious damage from Russia’s long-range strikes has come from cruise and ballistic missiles, and Ukraine’s campaign has suffered for want of them.
-I thought it was about the cheap produced Geran. Anyway, the "40 Days" (and everything else?), a wishlist?

It is generally recommended to fire two to three interceptors against each ballistic missile. When you also factor in that the launchers themselves can only protect a relatively small area, and Ukraine is a vast country, then it becomes clear that Kyiv would ideally have three to four times the annual global production capacity of Patriot missiles to protect itself.
-So, it is evident, no geniality, no surprise, that some drones will hit Russia, a country even bigger. And again, no one thought how Ukraine (meaning NATO, obviously) was going to get 3 to 4 times the Russian production of missiles in interceptors?
Or someone did, but those missiles were going to hit Ukraine, anyway.

A portion of Iran’s missiles were also advanced. In one instance, it took 17 Patriot interceptors to defeat a missile.
-I didn't read about that one.

Ukraine is not going to receive enough Patriots between now and the winter to save its critical national infrastructure, irrespective of whether some countries make the political gesture of releasing a few more from their stockpiles.
-Is that the real "window of opportunity" Zelenski was talking about?

Kyiv is trying to convince the US to activate Starlink satellite navigation modules over Russian territory to enable its drones to hunt for the Russian missile launchers.
-Or more Wildberries?

Another line of effort in Kyiv is to attack the production of Russia’s ballistic missiles. These factories are well defended. To succeed, Ukraine’s partners will need to expand the funding and industrial capacity behind Ukraine’s nascent cruise-missile industry, or reopen questions of providing weapons systems .
-To provide a lot more interceptors, a lot more money and materials and a lot more weapons systems. Again, Ukraine 0, NATO +++.
Another point would be if Ukraine can use Starlink, what means Ukraine has to carry it out and how effective it's going to be. Even if it is a "60 Days" campaign against launchers (aircraft?) and missiles factories. Just another wishlist?

The point of the article (in theguardian even if the author works for RUSI) is don't give to Ukraine, forget about Patriots and get our own European system, it is about bloody time.

I am pro-reality, mate.
Nope you aren't, please don't call me mate

...night after night Russia strikes Ukraine’s infrastructure with impunity. This tragedy was long foretold, and there are no quick fixes.
-Wait, no analyst mentioned that to Boris? No one was looking at Russian missiles production and NATO interceptors production, future production and sharing it's implications? Because, if it was foretold, that would had been like prodding Ukraine into disaster?

While the military narrative of the war has largely been of cheap mass-produced Ukrainian weapons overwhelming exquisite Russian military hardware, most of the serious damage from Russia’s long-range strikes has come from cruise and ballistic missiles, and Ukraine’s campaign has suffered for want of them.
-I thought it was about the cheap produced Geran. Anyway, the "40 Days" (and everything else?), a wishlist?

It is generally recommended to fire two to three interceptors against each ballistic missile. When you also factor in that the launchers themselves can only protect a relatively small area, and Ukraine is a vast country, then it becomes clear that Kyiv would ideally have three to four times the annual global production capacity of Patriot missiles to protect itself.
-So, it is evident, no geniality, no surprise, that some drones will hit Russia, a country even bigger. And again, no one thought how Ukraine (meaning NATO, obviously) was going to get 3 to 4 times the Russian production of missiles in interceptors?
Or someone did, but those missiles were going to hit Ukraine, anyway.

A portion of Iran’s missiles were also advanced. In one instance, it took 17 Patriot interceptors to defeat a missile.
-I didn't read about that one.

Ukraine is not going to receive enough Patriots between now and the winter to save its critical national infrastructure, irrespective of whether some countries make the political gesture of releasing a few more from their stockpiles.
-Is that the real "window of opportunity" Zelenski was talking about?

Kyiv is trying to convince the US to activate Starlink satellite navigation modules over Russian territory to enable its drones to hunt for the Russian missile launchers.
-Or more Wildberries?

Another line of effort in Kyiv is to attack the production of Russia’s ballistic missiles. These factories are well defended. To succeed, Ukraine’s partners will need to expand the funding and industrial capacity behind Ukraine’s nascent cruise-missile industry, or reopen questions of providing weapons systems .
-To provide a lot more interceptors, a lot more money and materials and a lot more weapons systems. Again, Ukraine 0, NATO +++.
Another point would be if Ukraine can use Starlink, what means Ukraine has to carry it out and how effective it's going to be. Even if it is a "60 Days" campaign against launchers (aircraft?) and missiles factories. Just another wishlist?

The point of the article (in theguardian even if the author works for RUSI) is don't give to Ukraine, forget about Patriots and get our own European system, it is about bloody time.

I am pro-reality, mate.
You are pro Russian, anti western , as I said you are entitled to your opinion just stop pretending to hide it, anybody would think that you are ashamed of it for some reason.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Northern Sumy-Chernigov area.

Russian forces continue to gain ground around Sopich and have taken Malaya Slobodka to the south-west. The area remains of marginal interest at best, but true to form Russia is persistent here.


Sumy area.

Russia has begun attacking Ryzhevka, opening up another cross-border area. So far it's unclear what the intent of this is. East of Sumy Russina forces have broken into Mogrytsa but the village remains contested. East of Mogrytsa Russia took another chunk of the forest. North of Sumy Russian forces continue to inch forward taking Novaya Sich and gaining ground in Ivolzhanskoe.


Ukrainian 2S22 taken out in Sumy region.


Russian BARS-Kursk doing mineclearing work in Kursk region.


Kharkov area.

Russian forces continue to advance around Kazach'ya Lopan', taking a lot of ground east of it, and securing most of the village. East of there Russia has taken Kudeevka. Around Volchansk Russia has achieved some sort of breakthrough. They've retaken Vol'chya and Grafskoe, they took Zemlyanoy Yar, half of Beliy Kolodets, Volkhovskoe, Zakharovka, and Ivanovka. Bashkeevka, Verovka, and Yurchenkovo are in the grey zone. East of there Russia has taken Ivascheno, Ustinovka, Anischino and Vodyanoe. The grey zone extends into Kupino and Dovzhanka. Separately along the border Russian forces took Artel'noe. Collapse of the north-eastern corner appears imminent, but as discussed before, nothing particularly important is found here or anywhere near here.


Russia takes out a Ukrainian M113, allegedly a M1064 mortar-carrier variant.


Russian National Guard remains active in the border areas, here we have the 116th Bde striking a Ukrainian pickup.


A look at Russian glide-bomb strikes south and south-east of Volchansk.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces gained some ground east of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian 2S22 in the Kupyansk area.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, allegedly in the swamps south of Kupyansk.


Some footage of the ruins of Kupyansk.


Oskol front.

Overall this remains the slowest portion of the front. Russian forces have taken half of Novoplatonovka, cutting Ukrainian positions apart to the Oskol. They also recaptured Zagryzovo, and Borovskaya Andreevka. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have retaken ground around Tverdokhlebovo.


Krasniy Liman.

Russia has retaken Yampol'. Meanwhile Ukraine keeps penetrating the woods around Dibrova, expanding the grey zone. Stavky remains hotly contested with Ukraine continuing to attack in that direction. Inside Krasniy Liman Ukraine has recaptured most of the town, clearing Russian infiltrations.


Ukraine shelling Russian forces in the Zelenya Dolya area.


Russia hits a crossing between Studenok and Yaremovka across the Severskiy Donets.


Nikolaevka area.

Russian forces have taken Ray-Aleksandrovka, Ivanovka, Vasyutinskoe, and large swatches of country-side east of Nikolaevka, and south of it, west of the canal. Zapovednoe and Orekhovatka are contested. Russia is clearly setting the stage for an assault on Nikolaevka from the east, south, and even south-west, covered by the Severskiy Donets river from the north.


Russian drone strikes inside Slavyansk. Targets include vehicles and a gas station.


Russian bomb strikes on Slavyansk.


Russia has begun hitting bridges in Slavyansk. This is normal practice for dispruting frontline logistics.


More footage of the Slavyansk-Izum highway.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Druzhkovka area.

Russian strikes on Kramatorsk, targets allegedly include a munitions depot and vehicles in the town.


A Ukrainian BTR-4, Humvee, and 2S3 getting hit in the Kramatorsk area.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian strike with Druzhkovka. Note the automated target tracking.


Druzhkovka is also slowly being destroyed.


Evacuation of civilians around Kramatorsk have begun, far too late in my opinion.


Konstantinovka area.

Russian forces have taken Molocharovka, and are advancing in Stenki north-east of Kosntantinovka. They're working on eliminating Ukrainian presence west of Chasov Yar with a clear intent to advance on Druzhkovka from this area as well, making gains. West of Konstantinovka, all of Nikolaypol'ye is now a grey zone with Roskoshnoe and Dolgaya Balka in Russian hands.


Russian troops at the northern outskirts of Konstantinovka, near the sign for Druzhkovka. Considerable Russian penetrations are occuring without consolidation so far.


West of Druzhkovka area.

I'm adding this to talk about Russian efforts west and south-west of Druzhkovka. They're far enough from Pokrovsk to warrant their own category, and this area will become significant as Russian forces push on Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk. In fact it may just become the Druzhkovka area.

Russian forces here have taken Torskoe, Krasniy Kut, Toretskoe, pushed towards Novonikolaevka crossing the river and taking the village, have taken Petrovka and even entered Rayskoe. Rayskoe is the last village before Druzhkovka proper. Russian forces have also expanded eastward and westward around this salient, broadening it, and protecting the flanks. Russia has also resumed attacks towards Kucherov Yar.


Dobropol'ye area.

This is to discuss Russian advances around Dobropol'ye area. The fighting has fairly firmly shifted away from Pokrovsk.

Ukraine's situation here is deteriorating rapidly. Russia has approached Dobropol'ye from the east initially in a small salient, but now it's widened considerably. Both of the refuse mounds east of Dobropol'ye has fallen. The last one is practically inside the town, overlooking much of it. Russian forces also contest Annovka. East of there Stepi and Vol'noe are in Russian hands. South of Dobropol'ye Russian forces have taken Krasnopodel'ye, Vodyanskoe, Svetloe, Shevchenko, Krasnoyarskoe, and Chernigovka. The southern flank is pushing into Dobropol'ye village (south of the town) and aims to wrap around the town from the south, and later south-west. West of Pokrovsk Russian forces have taken more fields, pushing towards Sergeevka.


More footage has emerged, and we're starting to get confirmation that Arena-M in fact does work against FPV drones.


Russian Zhmil'-Ts and Sokol UAV ops in the Dobropol'ye area.


Russian drone defense teams on the Dobropol'ye axis. Based on the photos they're somewhere in the Pokrovsk conurbation.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian UGV logistics in the Dobropol'ye area.


Russian strikes on manned and unmanned vehicles around Belitskoe. Notable examples include what I think is some sort of armored car (Kozak?), a couple of pickups, several UAVs and UGVs.


Russian bomb strikes on Dobropol'ye.


Russian Zemledelie remote minelayer operating on the Dobropol'ye axis.


Russian drone defense team in a Tigr-M armored car, Dobropol'ye axis.


Dnepropetrovsk area.


Russia has expanded their area of control around Novopodgorodnoe, and pushed westward south of it. In theory a solid west-ward push from here could threaten the rear of Ukrainian positions in Novopavlovka, but the gains would have to be much larger than what we see here. Also Ukrainian infiltrators are heading into Muravka again. Meanwhile Ukraine has secured all of Tolstoy and Iskra, apparently clearing Russian forces from there. Poddubnoe and Zor'ka remain contested. Ukrainian forces are now pushing into Peredubovo, next to Komar. Russian counter-attacks are in progress, but overall this remains the worst sector of the front for Russia. Both Russia and Ukraine have released buckets of misleading videos in an attempt to claim successes for their side.


A Russian strike on apparently a Ukrainian radar in Dnepropetrovsk region.


A destroyed Oshkosh M-ATV in the Dnepropetrovsk area.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Eastern Zaporozhye.

The situation here continues to be strange. Russian flag raisers are penetrating deeper and deeper in a pattern that implies advances but there's no evidence of actual consolidation in many areas. There's also an pro-Ukrainian source claiming Russian forces are using Ternovatoe as a concentration point, despite reliable mappers marking it as Ukrainian. In the Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk border area Russian forces have appeared in Khristoforovka, Novoe Pole, Rybal'skoe, Blagodatnoe, and Vol'noe. Even with all these advances, Ukrainian presence remains visible in the grey zone, often behind Russian infiltrators. South-west of there Russian infiltrators have also reached the highway north-east out of Omel'nik, in the village of Lyubitskoe, meaning the logistics route into Orekhov from this direction is now compromised, though maybe not cut. There are also Russian infiltrations into Danilovka and towards Rozhdestvenskoe from the south-west. Russian forces have also gained ground west of Gorkoe and re-taken some ground west of Zaliznichnoe. Even as this developed, Ukraine counter-attacked east-ward, clearing many of Russia's infiltrations and re-solidifying the front line around Zarinka, Rozdvyanka, and Dolinka. Ukrainian forcs have also approached the outskirts of Verkhnyaya Tersa, and Gor'koe.


Russian bomb strikes on Vasil'kovka, north of Pokrovskoe.


Zaporozhye area.

Russian forces have regained the initiative east of Stepnogorsk, pushing northward across a wide area, and retaking Pavlovka, Moving the frontline away from the Malie Scherbaki area. Meanwhile near Orekhov Russian forces have pushed northward, reaching Orekhov proper for the first time and even getting somewhat into the town, though it's clearly just infiltrators for now. Novodanilovka is fully under Russian control. Russia has also begun advancing westward north of Belogor'ye. There are some indications that Russia is going try for a push into Orekhov itself. Fighting continues in Malaya Tokmachka.


Russia hits a bridge over the Konka river in Orekhov.


Russia hit the Preobrazhenskiy bridge in Zaporozhye. It remains to be seen whether Russia can consistently strike it, taking it out.


Dnepr front.

Russian strikes on Kherson city continue.


Ukraine hits a Pantsyr decoy, Kherson region.


Black Sea/Crimea.

An interesting episode off the coast of Crimea, a Russian attack helo engages a Ukrainian unmanned boat, that then tries to hit back with a missile. Both miss, but it points in the direction of things to come.


It appears Ukraine damaged at least 3 ships in strikes against Novorossiysk naval base including two 11356 frigates and one 22160 patrol ship.


Ukraine hit a decoy and a real S-400 TEL.


Ukrainian strikes on a drilling platform in the Black Sea.


Ukrainian unmanned boats in Yalta. They penetrated the harbor. Results of the attack are unclear.


2 Russian HAS got hit at the Gvardeyskoe airbase in Crimea, and clearly were not penetrated, showing their value.


Russia continues the hunt for unmanned Ukrainian boats.


Russian BARS-Sarmat near Chongar with a quad-PKT setup.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

The road war continues from both sides, though it's largely faded into the background. Russian mitigation measures seem to have resulted in supplies largely reaching Crimea and other areas under Russian control. Russia's strikes on Ukrainian trucks haven't turned into a real problem yet. Russia's strikes on gas stations may be the first thing that starts having a significant impact with reports of rising gas prices and projections of gas shortages in Ukraine. Ukraine's strikes create a cost for Russia and require plenty of drone defense forces to mitigate, but they have not prevented supplies from reaching Crimea or other occupied areas. A notable subset of this campaign are Ukrainian strikes against civilian busses. These are certainly war crimes, and if they're not actually state terrorism, it must be by some technicality of the definition.


Russia's campaign against rail capability also continues. Some of these strikes are targeting military logistics being done by rail, others are just generally targeting locomotives and rail infrastructure. Ukraine continues efforts at protecting locomotives from drones with cages.


Russia has launched a major campaign of strikes against Ukrainian logistics in the Odessa area. Targets include storage facilities, civilian shipping, and even the Mayak bridge (again). The goal is clearly to shut down Ukraine's ability to export or import any large volume of cargo through this area. And this has largely worked, ship traffic to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea is now practically zero. This has already led to a re-routing of cargo through other routes, including trucks through Poland. Ukraine has even begun putting up floating barriers to protect their ports from unmanned boats. Probably to bump their numbers, Russia has also struck a number of vessels trapped around Nikolaev, to little practical purpose. One notably ugly trend is Russia using actual missiles rather than relatively small drones against some ships causing far more damage, and killing more sailors.

On a side note damage to the Mayak bridge is accumulating and we will likely see it fail if these strikes continue.

Ukraine meanwhile continues to hit shipping heading to Russian ports including some vessels on the Caspian Sea. It's not obvious how the drones got there.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine has been steadily launching Flamingo cruise missile strikes into Russia. The results so far have been less than desired, with Russia in many cases downing all inbounds. On the flip side it appears Russian efforts to intercept these cruise missiles are largely dependent on AEW and while on paper Russia has a decent size A-50 fleet, only a few have been upgraded to the A-50U, and I suspect it's only those that are really helpful here. Also so far volley sizes have been mostly small. It remains to be seen if the A-50U fleet can maintain the op-tempo needed, and if Russia can handle larger volleys. It probably doesn't help that these missiles often follow rivers on their ingress route.


An interesting Russian cruise missile flight path. It appears Russia is using cruise missiles as recon.


Russia hit the Armada drone expo near Kiev, killing many visitors. Casualties include foreign defense industry experts. Total casualty numbers are unclear, with some sources claiming they're very high, while others claiming just 10 KIA.


Ukraine has hit another Volna-Kupol-Garant EW system, reportedly meant for jamming Starlink. This one is in Gelendzhik, south of Novorossiysk.


Ukraine continues to strike Russia's droneport in the former Donetsk airport.


Ukraine has begun using Destinus cruise missiles, namely the Ruta Block 1.


Russia has begun using EW systems on Shaheds to jam interceptor drones.


Some Russian drone defense units in combat and training.


Reportedly Russia has ceased Geran'-3 production in favor of the Geran'-4.


New Russian long-range UAVs have shown up over Ukraine, looking similar to the Ukrainian FP-1.


It appears, after some testing of the waters, Russian jets are now dropping glide bombs from much closer to the front line, due to the depletion of Ukrainian air defenses.


Russia has set another record on glide bomb usage in July with a 268 per day average.


There are reports Russia has resumed use of DPRK sourced KN-23 missiles.


Russia is also using fighter-jets to chase drones around.


Ukrainian drone defense team with a DP-27, with a thermal sight.


Russian Gerber drones have now also been sighted with cameras.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Ukraine lost a MiG-29 near Odessa, apparently due to some sort of accident while launching an AAM. This sort of thing is inevitable when a fleet of old jets is used intensively.


Ukraine also lost an F-16, likely doing interceptor work.


A Ukrainian Mi-8 went down in Kirovograd region with apparently 3 crew dead.


Ukraine hits a Sarma MLRS, and this is our first sighting of it. This is essentially half of a BM-30 launcher on a Kamaz chassis.


A drone defense variant of the Courier 2.0 UGV has shown up. It remains to be seen whether it can be effective.


A Russian interceptor drone based on a Chinese commercial FPV drone. Keeping costs low is key for interceptor drones.


There are reports that Ukraine intends to reformat Syrsky's assault troops, and there appears to be some question about what to do about the 150th series Mech Bdes. This makes sense given their track record.


A new Ukrainian unmanned boat that carried two missiles. Reportedly it can also carry torpedoes and drones.


A look at Ukrainian hedgehog vehicles from the infamous Azov Corps.


A look at Italian Puma APCs in service with Ukraine's 68th and 81st AirMobile Bdes. We have both 4X4 and 6X6 variants, all with varying degrees of improvised drone protection.


Reportedly Ukraine got 12 M270 MLRS TELs and batches of ATACMS missiles, M26 missiles with DPICM munitions, and 203mm artillery shells from Turkey.


2 more versions of the Stash SAM has shown up in Ukraine varying in chassis.


There are now reports that Ukraine will get 4 Polish MiG-29s after all.


German SAMP 25 bombs have shown up in Ukraine. Here they're being used to mine a bridge.


There are reports that Ukraine is working on a domestic S-300 missile variant with US help. This is likely because Ukraine still has systems left, but no missiles for them.


There are reports Ukraine has signed a deal to locally produce the L119 howitzer. Unlike Patriot interceptors, this is actually realistic, though it remains to be seen whether anything materializes.


there are reports of DPRK missile units being deployed to Russia for strikes against Ukraine. This would make sense. With upgrades to the KN-23 and Ukraine exhausting their Patriot interceptor stock, it's an opportunity to hit as many targets as possible.


Another exchange of KIAs has taken place with Russia returning 261 bodies, for 24. Note the ratio has gotten steadily lower, due to slower Russian advances.


We have another reshuffling in Russian general staff. General-Colonel Ivanov went from commander of East MD to commander of Center MD. General-Colonel Solodchuk went from Center MD commander to being in charge of material-technical supplies. The chief of staff of Center MD General-Colonel Lyamin is now commander of the unmanned forces. General Bulgarev former chief of staff of East MD is acting commander of East MD. It's unclear what exactly prompted these changes though likely this is a recognition of East MD successes.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
We had previously introduced (from memory), in no particular order, “crushing”, “sweeping”, “most ambitious”, “most severe”, “unprecedented”, “massive” and “historic”, “strongest possible” and then “even stronger” sanctions… surely I am missing a few (any recollections?). Of course, there was the “mother of all sanctions” before the war even began. I wonder if the “most far-reaching” will be the ones that break the camel’s back…

EU plans most far-reaching sanctions against Russia in coming months, Kallas says.

If not, what other words are there to reasonably describe the definitive fatalism of the next round? Is polymarket or kalshi taking bets on the next definitive descriptive - that is, hyperbole - term to describe the solidarity?

The problem with all this nonsense is that you have to increase the rhetoric in every round in order to be taken seriously. If you go from one hyperbole to the next, 20 (or is it now 21?) rounds from the EU alone later, you are going to look like… well, like Kallas appears to be with these proclamations - in other words, a clown. To be fair, the Americans killed the whole thing with “the mother of all” right from the start. Laughing. Talk about miscalculations and expectations of quick victory. Did they remember to pack the parade uniforms?

Sure, there is, perhaps, an expectation that an average person isn’t particularly involved and has a memory of a fish (maybe true)… It’s like Ukraine started (allegedly) inflicting 30K plus casualties on Russians per month back in 2024 (if not 23?), yet it became a new “zomg” a few months ago and we are now at 42,000 or whatever expected in the month of August, according to the UA figures/claims. Master clownery.

What’s weird is that people do not appear to be disappointed, but instead meet these proclamations with a “fuck yeah!” and “give it to the ruskies!”

In the meantime, clownery aside, Zelensky said a while back and reiterated recently that Ukraine will do everything to end the war before winter. Biletsky said back in May that Ukraine has six to nine months to reshape negotiations. Budanov said that before winter “is a realistic sceneio”. And so on. So another fatal blow with “most far-reaching sanctions in coming months”…

We will see what happens.
 

Hoover

Active Member
We had previously introduced (from memory), in no particular order, “crushing”, “sweeping”, “most ambitious”, “most severe”, “unprecedented”, “massive” and “historic”, “strongest possible” and then “even stronger” sanctions… surely I am missing a few (any recollections?). Of course, there was the “mother of all sanctions” before the war even began. I wonder if the “most far-reaching” will be the ones that break the camel’s back…

EU plans most far-reaching sanctions against Russia in coming months, Kallas says.

If not, what other words are there to reasonably describe the definitive fatalism of the next round? Is polymarket or kalshi taking bets on the next definitive descriptive - that is, hyperbole - term to describe the solidarity?

The problem with all this nonsense is that you have to increase the rhetoric in every round in order to be taken seriously. If you go from one hyperbole to the next, 20 (or is it now 21?) rounds from the EU alone later, you are going to look like… well, like Kallas appears to be with these proclamations - in other words, a clown. To be fair, the Americans killed the whole thing with “the mother of all” right from the start. Laughing. Talk about miscalculations and expectations of quick victory. Did they remember to pack the parade uniforms?

Sure, there is, perhaps, an expectation that an average person isn’t particularly involved and has a memory of a fish (maybe true)… It’s like Ukraine started (allegedly) inflicting 30K plus casualties on Russians per month back in 2024 (if not 23?), yet it became a new “zomg” a few months ago and we are now at 42,000 or whatever expected in the month of August, according to the UA figures/claims. Master clownery.

What’s weird is that people do not appear to be disappointed, but instead meet these proclamations with a “fuck yeah!” and “give it to the ruskies!”

In the meantime, clownery aside, Zelensky said a while back and reiterated recently that Ukraine will do everything to end the war before winter. Biletsky said back in May that Ukraine has six to nine months to reshape negotiations. Budanov said that before winter “is a realistic sceneio”. And so on. So another fatal blow with “most far-reaching sanctions in coming months”…

We will see what happens.
The numbers of Russian casualties are propaganda, for the Ukrainian people and for the supporter.
And, even if the causalities are 40k+, Ukraine has the problem that Putin doesn´t care of his losses, he never did.
He is seeing that the support by the west is crumbling, and his support by Iran, North Korea and China is increasing. So Putin will take another 100k casualties more...if he is winning the war at the end.
Putin is not willing to end war with a cease fire. He wants the victory. So Ukraine has no really choice to continue the fight or not.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
@Feanor

You got me confused for a moment...
I have been looking at that corner N, NE of Svobodi street for a while, it is still in Ukrainian hands, but the E, SE area of Liman is still in Russian hands
or have been infiltrated for a very long time. Even Suriyaki gives the recent bombed-green area in the centre as Russian.

"Collapse of the north-eastern corner appears imminent, but as discussed before, nothing particularly important is found here or anywhere near here. (NE Jarkov)"
But if Ukraine doesn't keep sending troops there and to Stepnogirsk, Russia will be back north to Veselianka and closer to Zsaporishsha again. Simple attrition?
I had my doubts when the AI was calling it "90% in Ukrainian hands".

Russia has been, at last (for the moment, another Stepnogirsk?), cleanly kick out of Ivanivka, that low level town from where Russia was never able to advance to the heights to the N.
Russia should be interested in crossing the Solena, not in getting into the Vovcha bend, or am I missing something?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I'm confused, do you take those as insults? That is clearly the position that you take, I'm fine with that it is your choice. I'm just asking you to be honest about it.
Let's see...

You can call me whatever you want but me calling you "mate" is completely unacceptable.
Did I get it right?
 
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