The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
No Idea on fuel but I imagine getting parts for all the stolen Ukrainian John Deere farm machinery must be problematic.
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- #15,024
I haven't heard anything, and from what I've read the fuel shortage is slowly ending with sales of gasoline slowly becoming less restricted.
rsemmes
Active Member
Russia is ramping up its efforts to strangle Ukraine's commercial links to the outside world, launching attacks all along the country's Black Sea coastline.
From damaged port infrastructure to listing ships with bridges blackened and containers still smouldering, the evidence is everywhere. Nowhere more so than out towards the horizon, where the approaches to Ukraine's once bustling ports – Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi – are almost devoid of ships.
According to the global shipping journal Lloyd's List, the Black Sea may now be the most dangerous place for shipping in the world.
"They stopped the deal (the UN-brokered 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative) in the middle of 2023, but they didn't start attacking it until recently, today they do it systematically."
The manager said recent alerts have forced the port (Odessa) to shut down for 15 out of 24 hours.
www.bbc.co.uk
...nor film anything. Ukraine doesn't want Russia to know what has and hasn't been damaged or reveal details that might aid Moscow in further targeting.
I am going to guess that Russia has satellite imagery to asses the damage.
From damaged port infrastructure to listing ships with bridges blackened and containers still smouldering, the evidence is everywhere. Nowhere more so than out towards the horizon, where the approaches to Ukraine's once bustling ports – Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi – are almost devoid of ships.
According to the global shipping journal Lloyd's List, the Black Sea may now be the most dangerous place for shipping in the world.
"They stopped the deal (the UN-brokered 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative) in the middle of 2023, but they didn't start attacking it until recently, today they do it systematically."
The manager said recent alerts have forced the port (Odessa) to shut down for 15 out of 24 hours.
In Odesa, no-one is safe from Russia's new Black Sea strike campaign
Blackened ships and smashed docks mark Russia's recent surge of attacks on Ukraine's coastline.
www.bbc.co.uk
I am going to guess that Russia has satellite imagery to asses the damage.
rsemmes
Active Member
Do you have the full list? Only that brand?
rsemmes
Active Member
Agriculture Minister Admits to ‘Rough Patches’ as Fuel Shortages Squeeze Some Farmers - The Moscow Times
Nationwide fuel shortages are beginning to put pressure on Russia’s agricultural sector, despite directives from President Vladimir Putin to guarantee farmers enough supplies for the harvest and planting seasons, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said Friday. “There are rough patches on the...
www.themoscowtimes.com
Russia said Wednesday it had struck the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Chornomorsk, hitting port infrastructure and vessels that it said were supporting the Ukrainian military.
Reuters could not independently verify the content of the statement.
Russia Says It Struck Ukrainian Ports and Ships - The Moscow Times
Russia said Wednesday it had struck the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Chornomorsk, hitting port infrastructure and vessels that it said were supporting the Ukrainian military.
www.themoscowtimes.com
Reuters, next day.
KYIV, July 23 (Reuters) - Shipowners halted vessel arrivals at Ukraine's Black Sea ports due to intensified Russian strikes
The suspension reflects a rapidly deteriorating situation for Ukraine's port logistics and export capacity, key for an economy that has been ravaged by Russia's war.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I only recall the John Deere thefts at the start of the invasion being reported on. I assume other farm vendor equipment was "liberated" by Putin's criminal associates.
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Obviously any economic assets in captured areas would be under Russian control. That having been said I don't recall hearing any expropriations of equipment taking place from business entities in southern Ukraine or in Lugansk region where Russia captured large areas with intact economies. Though I'm sure if the owner failed to get Russian citizenship or jump through various other hoops property would be regarded as forfeit and seized. It would be interesting to know what would happen to a Ukrainian company that has assets on the wrong side of the front lines and wants to continue operating. Would Russia let them? I wouldn't be surprised if they might. But of course the opposite is also completely possible.
personaldesas
Active Member
Wouldn't it be in their interest to make life under Russian rule look as good as possible? Occupied Ukraine is supposed to be the shop window for everything still on the Ukrainian side of the line, and mass expropriation is bad advertising.
Though IIRC Russia did go and amend the constitutional laws annexing the four oblasts to spell out how "ownerless" property gets confiscated, and has designated a lot of real estate as such.
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Russia hasn't been very good at making life under Russian rule look as good as possible. The occupied Donbas lost a lot of people between 2014 & 2022, many of them moving to Russia for work, suggesting life there wasn't good. Ukrainian-speakers have been harassed, Ukrainian-language books seized & destroyed, etc., & the massacres following the Russian invasion hardly endeared Russia to Ukrainians.
There's also been settlement of Russians, which doesn't make it attractive to Ukrainians.
personaldesas
Active Member
I don't think that's the article @Hoover means. If read past the headline, one can see it doesn't say what he's saying.My guess is that he is referring to that (only) article, repeated by Ukrainian media.Agriculture Minister Admits to ‘Rough Patches’ as Fuel Shortages Squeeze Some Farmers - The Moscow Times
Nationwide fuel shortages are beginning to put pressure on Russia’s agricultural sector, despite directives from President Vladimir Putin to guarantee farmers enough supplies for the harvest and planting seasons, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said Friday. “There are rough patches on the...
And I wouldn't write it off as an outlier only repeated by Ukrainians. The article shows its sources and cites Interfax and the Kremlin. Last I checked, the Kremlin isn't a Ukrainian propaganda outlet.The Moscow Times said:
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personaldesas
Active Member
My point was more about incentives, not outcomes. Having a reason to make occupation look attractive and actually managing it are different things. But yeah, my impression is also that Russia tends to chose loyalty enforcement over looking good (re-register under Russian law and get the passport, or lose the house).
rsemmes
Active Member
With what he was saying, that was what I could find.
We already read here that diesel was not the issue.
rsemmes
Active Member
Are you calling the British Museum a bunch of "criminal associates"?
Talking about fuel and you go for looting in a war...
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They did so with Crimea after taking over back in '14, but here it's much harder. The area is significantly larger, and Russia has to prioritize military spending. That having been said, some of that is going on. Russian reconstruction in places like Mariupol' and Volnovakha are one example. The development taking places in Berdyansk and Melitopol' is another. But they can't afford everywhere, and some areas are still too close to the front lines. Places like Popasnaya have been in ruins since '22 and only this year has the front line moved far enough to where reconstruction becomes realistic. How much of the population will return after 4 years? Unclear, but ~300 or so still live in the ruins. And there's a rail junction, and a water treatment plant there. So some sort of settlement will exist.
There's a carrot and stick element to it. Russia wants population to return, and wants businesses to operate. But they also don't want people who are a security risk, and they don't want abandoned property sitting there. Consider this, a company has agricultural holdings all over Ukraine. Some of their assets are destroyed in the fighting, but some are captured intact in southern Ukraine. Now what? If the business continues to operate in both, and understanding that most of their assets are in Kiev-held parts of Ukraine, they could face problems from either government, or even both. Most likely they would suspend operations in occupied areas. But then Russia is left with assets rusting away and fields lying fallow. Russia could respect the property rights of a Ukrainian company, that has no intention to resume operations any time soon, or they could seize the land and the machinery, and sell it to a Russian company to restart work. If the war lasts ~6-12-18 months, maybe just pressing pause is ok. But what happens when the war is in it's 3rd or 4th year, the locals need the jobs, the equipment is starting to fall apart from lack of maintenance, and there's no end in sight? The logical thing becomes to take the assets, and restart production.
It's the same with homes. You have a building with empty apartments because the residents evacuated and did not return, and you have refugees from war-torn areas that need homes. You can respect the property rights of the departed owners, and meanwhile park the refugees in temporary housing. This was done large-scale in Donetsk city, but often involved entire families getting one room. Or you can seize the homes and re-distribute them to people whose homes have been destroyed in places like Selidovo or Pokrovsk. If the homes are relatively intact and contain property, they went the normal abandoned property route. If the homes are damaged like in Avdeevka, they rebuild the building and simply hand out the housing to refugees. And they these aren't Russian "settles", there are other Ukrainian citizens from areas like Artemovsk/Bakhmut or Krasniy Liman, or Seversk, whose homes are now rubble.
And a town with abandoned homes doesn't exactly look like an advertisement. But a town rebuilt, with people living in all the homes could. Even if they aren't the original owners.
That doesn't exactly line up to the current situation though. Russia treated LDNR areas more like Abkhazia and S. Ossetia, and less like a Russian province. Russian law did not apply there, and the situation was bad. Contrast what happened there with what happened in Crimea. It's a very different picture. Also, to many the Russian government looks authoritarian and lawless, but compared to the governments of LNR and DNR, the Russian government is a model of civic virtue. They were substantially worse. In theory Russia should treat the annexed areas like Crimea, pour in investment to improve things. In practice, the area is very large, much of it is close to the front lines, and in many areas much population left, making it difficult to fake normality. Reconstruction efforts are definitely ongoing and in many areas over the past ~3 years the situation has been improving, but overall it's slow and many areas have seen very little work done. Severodonetsk-Lisichansk for example is a larger city (conurbation) second only to Mariupol', in terms of places Russia has captured. Yet there are still destroyed buildings in the city. Most of the damage is patched up, but large scale investment into development hasn't taken place. And the city was within easy artillery and FPV drone range until late last year when Russia took Seversk. The front is moving more actively this year with fighting rolling towards Slavyansk, so I suspect next year (or even the year after) Russia will set aside development funds for that area.
There has been some movement of Russians for work into these areas, but I'm not aware of any large scale population movements. Do you have anything about this? I also don't know how significant of an impact having some Russian citizens moving into the area is. This isn't Kiev or western Ukraine, it's the south-east. In fact it's the far east and far south areas. I think the difficulty of returning and the damage to the areas in question are a far more substantial barrier.
personaldesas
Active Member
Not to sidetrack this discussion further, and my memory might be off, but isn't Metinvest the example here? I somewhat remember it operating on both sides (before full scale invasion), though IIRC it came crashing down at some point.
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I honestly don't recall. It wouldn't surprise me if some entities tried to work on both sides and hope nobody comes after them. They way the war is going, with even clearly civilian targets being hit from both sides, there is going to be less and less room to operate in both places.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I do not believe there is any observable significant shortage of diesel in farming operations, but I do not have much evidence to state so with utmost certainty. Russia has also been importing record amounts of gasoline and diesel from Belarus. They are also still selling diesel due to contractual obligations, etc.
If there was, it would have no effect on Putin. Not sure why people tend to think that it would (or any of it, in fact). In spite of, what appears to be, a general belief, Putin is pretty isolated from these events. First and foremost, the blame is falling on Ukrainians. When it comes to internal politics, there is quite a ladder that never reaches the top. It is actually rather amazing that it is Putin who appears to be (almost micro-) managing the country, giving out orders and “advice” on television to various officials, bureaucrats, CEO’s, etc. The feedback ladder, however, never gets quite that high: it is always these very people who take the fall because “не справились с поставленными задачами” (failed to accomplish the assigned goals), “не оправдали доверия” (something like “did not live up to trust”), etc; then comes the next level, such as “за хищения в особо крупных размерах” (for grand larceny or embezzlement) and so on. And the ladder is very high.
What happens instead is the pressure to increase pressure (ha!) increases. This is rather trivial stuff for anyone familiar with Russia. Anyone who tells you otherwise is flat out wrong, whether it is intentional misrepresentation or lack of expertise.
Furthermore, I believe I had already mentioned it, Russia used to export as much diesel fuel as it consumed internally. Thus, in order to put even a small dent into the local market, over 50% of production must be eliminated for an extended period of time. In addition, it is not necessarily the case (and it is most certainly not, in my opinion) that the refining capacity was operating at full at higher levels of diesel exports. An expert’s opinion to substantiate what I expressed above (highlighting is mine, but see just below as well):
So yeah, it is not just simple “there is no diesel and farmers are going to march to the Red Square to make Putin stop the war”. This is just an unrealistic expectation. Just like the rest of other expectations associated with Putin. What I talked about before is no joke: there will be more support for nuking/erasing Ukraine before there will be major (or even equal) anti-Putin mood swing. In my opinion, this is also trivial stuff.
Here is another funny thing. Remember this gem?
From Zelensky’s tweet, where he mocks Putin again, and talks about his (and his party’s) low approval ratings and shows pictures of stuff he supposedly got from his desk (likely made up by UA for this very poor attempt at propaganda). Even on this slop, the Putin’s approval rating plateaus at a whooping 55%! Why? Because it would not be even remotely believable otherwise, even at the lemming level (I would think).
All this should be a serious consideration by the Ukrainian government (and public) and the advisors of its sponsors. What we are seeing, unfortunately, is the opposite.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Metinvest lost all its assets way back when (2015-16?). The company declared that they will not operate in the occupied territories (after being forced to register in separatists republics). That’s how I remember it. Akhmetov seized to be the richest Ukrainian, if I recall correctly.
Edit: all it’s assets in the occupied territories, of course. It is s till huge UA company.
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