John Fedup
The Bunker Group
There has been bucket loads of bovine excrement matter on numerous sites. Social media in action.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Yes, that’s the press-ganging I was referring to. I still can’t think of any more “recent” examples.
I’d say “had been”. Just googled for fun and the last article I see on the subject is dated last September and it is from Kyiv Independent. Surely there is a random one somewhere since. Probably a different choice of words to search would provide a different result too? All recent stuff is about the reform to tackle the shortage and whatnot (already discussed). To note, I am talking about news media, not think tanks and other analysts.
I don’t believe I have seen many with the collapsing part though, not since February 2022.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Massive logistics centres?I know there is justification in there somewhere, but…
rsemmes
Active Member
All of them pointing at the terrible situation of Ukraine and its imminent collapse?
rsemmes
Active Member
Like demanding Russia to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine to end the war?There has been bucket loads of bovine excrement matter on numerous sites. Social media in action.
rsemmes
Active Member
Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia’s Defense Firms Deliver?
After four years of war, Russia’s defense industrial base has significantly reshaped, creating an asymmetric threat to NATO: It can rapidly scale production of weapons proven on the battlefield, combining Soviet-style resource allocation with selective market mechanisms.
For example, in February 2026, a Moscow court arrested Ksenia Grashchenkova, the company’s former director of procurement and logistics, on embezzlement charges; the following month, her former deputy director for procurement and logistics was detained on related charges.
-Look at that! Russia fighting corruption. Soon, it's going to be able to join the EU...
Ushkuynik is part of a broader state-supported ecosystem of research and production centres focused on unmanned systems development, testing, and evaluation. Overall, such efforts allow the military to address critical battlefield needs more rapidly and improve combat effectiveness.
-Ukrainian innovation, obviously...
Russia is likely to sustain a high production tempo in selected categories of weapons systems while gradually rebuilding its strategic reserves. Russia’s drone output reaching several hundreds of thousands per month, according to industry experts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi seemed to confirm this assessment in a recent statement, in which he claimed that Russia plans to build 7.3 million FPV drones alone in 2026.
Russia maintains a large arsenal of air defence systems and related equipment while continuing to produce advanced SAM systems, including Kalibr cruise and Iskander ballistic missiles.
Performance of Russian SAM systems has also improved compared to the early stages of the war, with greater effectiveness against aircraft, drones, and Western-supplied munitions. This adaptation reflects increased operator experience, better coordination with aviation, software upgrades, and stronger EW resilience.
-Surprisingly, no collapse.
If the war in Ukraine were to conclude, Russia could rebuild some of its lost capacity within a relatively short time frame, and in the longer term, according to multiple intelligence assessments, it could, for instance, launch a military action against the Baltic NATO states, potentially gaining “regional superiority at least in the initial stages of the war.
-Now, the important part.
Russia had been building new barracks, military towns, warehouses, and equipment depots near the borders of Norway, Finland, and the Baltic states. Once completed, this will enable Moscow to station up to 115,000 troops in the north-western direction, nearly six times more than before the 2022 war.
-Being able to deploy troops at the borders of NATO countries? Unthinkable!
A model of warfare built on mass attrition, reduced reliance on armoured vehicles, large-scale use of low-cost systems (especially drones), and extensive EW use to jam NATO communications while protecting its own forces from guided strikes. Moreover, Russia’s ability to sustain casualties differs from that of democratic societies, where military losses create serious political costs.
-What it is not pointing out is... Why? Casualties... Yes, like deploying troops on other countries borders, not our MO... Unless it's to protect Greenland from an ambitious emperor, Putin.
Russia’s defence industrial base is likely to remain on a wartime footing even if the fighting in Ukraine subsides.
-Why, because there is no stress in the Russian economy? The US is increasing its production of shells and missiles... to overheat the economy?
So, Russia doesn't have enough skilled workers, has to import electronics from the West... and is going to invade NATO.
Come again?
personaldesas
Active Member
KMT in the 30s/40s is probably the clearest modern example that comes to mind. In recent years Eritrea or Myanmar could also be mentioned.
That’s fair. Most of what I read on it was in 2025, if I remember correctly, from my usual sources (FT, The Economist, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera), along with analysts like Michael Kofman and Rob Lee.
I agree it’s been much less prominent recently, and I can hardly recall seeing it framed as “Ukraine’s military is about to collapse”, probably because that simply isn’t the case. But it was always framed as a significant problem.
Likewise, those same publications generally weren’t predicting an imminent Russian collapse either. They covered the strain, losses and economic costs, but usually with the caveat that Russia could sustain them for a long time if it had to.
Of course, someone whose media diet consisted mainly of the Daily Mail, Pravda.ru, or hot takes on social media may well have come away with a rather different impression.
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rsemmes
Active Member
Well, maybe a more subtle than that:
"...while facing mounting domestic pressures of its own."