The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

Something funny...

The Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russia has lost about 1,400,970 personnel, with 1,250 in the latest daily tally. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia is losing at least 1,000 troops daily, underscoring the intensity of current fighting. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier noted that April alone saw over 35,000 Russian personnel killed or seriously wounded.

MSN

NATO estimates that Russia has suffered more than 1.4 million military casualties in its war against Ukraine, but believes Moscow has not abandoned its objectives.
Source: a senior NATO official speaking to journalists, as reported by a European Pravda correspondent in Brussels
More details: The official said Russia had suffered "between 1.3 and 1.45 million total casualties" since the start of the full-scale invasion, including around half a million killed.

Russia has lost over 1.4 million soldiers in war against Ukraine, NATO estimates

NATO estimates that Russia has suffered more than 1.4 million military casualties in its war against Ukraine, but believes Moscow has not abandoned its objectives.

www.pravda.com.ua

NATO officials estimate that Russia has suffered between 1.3 and 1.45 million total casualties, including approximately 500,000 deaths, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s War Toll Hits Up to 1.4 Million Casualties, NATO Says

NATO estimates Russia has suffered over 1.4 million casualties during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet the Kremlin remains undeterred.

united24media.com

The Russian military has suffered 1.4 million battlefield casualties and as many as 450,000 deaths since its February 2022 full-scale invasion, according to new CSIS data.

Russian Blood and Treasure: The Ballooning Costs of Putin’s War

Russia has suffered approximately 1.4 million casualties and 450,000 fatalities in Ukraine for only marginal territorial gains, according to new CSIS data. In addition, Ukraine has conducted deep strikes into Russian territory, including with AI-enabled drones.

www.csis.org

An "unknown NATO official"... Is NATO copy+paste whatever Ukraine says? Is CSIS using Ukrainian "data"? Is that how we do our "estimates"?

 

[Ananda]

I think this isn't true. Even in authoritarian countries popular opinion matters. Sometimes it matters more than in democracies.

Many of dictactors downfall coming from changes in popular opinion of the majorities. Living in a country that see how 2 Dictactors fall from power due that changes. They also come to power many because popular opinion of majority support them. Something that many live in democracies seems could not see. Most Dictators rise to power because popular opinion support and fall down because they lost it.

Whether they fall to another dictactor or to 'democracy' is another matter. Popular opinion changes that drove that. Most popular opinion changes due to economic necceseties and not this nonsense of 'democracy dream', that many western media and think tank sold.

 

[tonnyc]

What, nobody mentioned the news Ukraine signed a $2.5 billion contract for 16 Gripen E? While the story didn't explicitly mention it, it's pretty clear that Sweden provided financing.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saab-signs-254-billion-gripen-fighter-jet-deal-with-ukraine-2026-06-30/

Delivery is promised for 2029. President Zelenskiy also mentioned that delivery of Gripen C/D will begin early 2027. I believe this means the Swedish Air Force will hand-over their Gripen C/D to Ukraine after they get enough Gripen E/F.

 

[KipPotapych]

Did you ever talk to Ukrainians? I do. Very often. They are knowing, what conditions the Ukranians facing in the occupied territories.

I do too. Opinions vary. Here is one (from Chernihiv): “the only difference is whether you get paid in hrivnas or in rubles, but I prefer dollars”. Here is another (from Kharkiv): “Yanukovich should have taken more serious action in 2013 to clear the streets”. Yet another (from Odessa): “wish the Russians could clear this mess and get rid of all the banderites”. Or a hot and loud conversation between two Ukrainians:
- My mother-in-law has to hide in the basement while the orcs are bombing the city! (Kyiv)
- What have you been doing when mine hid in hers in Donetsk in 2014?
In 2023, a guy who moved from Crimea to Canada in 1997: “If the UA army actually moves to retake Crimea, I will have to go back and pick up arms to defend the peninsula” (I doubt he actually would, but the mood is clear as day). Another person from Crimea (Simferopol): “In all the years I have hardly known anyone who could understand Ukrainian. I have also known only one person being proud of the UA flag since its inception and he would hang it outside his house, but he was an old (“unfinished”) banderite”. Another one from Khmelnytskyi: “I moved to Czechia when the war began. After realizing that most business and other happenings in the community (Russians and Ukrainians living in the same community) are done in Russian, I learned Russian (only spoke Ukrainian and little English previously). Moved to Dubai later, working with Russians, and later to Canada. You’d have to be insane to even think I will ever be going back to the shithole I came from”. But he certainly doesn’t support the invasion and his parents are still there.

And so on. Surely, you will meet many more with different and opposite opinions. Not from Crimea though - I have never met a person from there who had anything positive to say about Ukraine. Literally. Not saying they do not exist because they do, but you would certainly have hard times locating one vs locating one that would shit all over the country. You will also have hard time locating people ready to pack and go back, regardless of the area they came from; some may say they would, but when the push comes to shove, they stay put.

The point is that it is far from uniform than it is portrayed to be. And if it was not for the stupid invasion, it would be even less uniform. In fact, it would probably be more uniform (as in back to the absolute majority) “leaning” towards Russia when the EU rejects the Ukrainian membership (rejection does not have to be a straight “no”, but “soon, but not today”). Cities like Odessa, I wouldn’t be surprised even today if told there is a significant chunk of population who would be considered “zhduny” (“waiters”, waiting for the Russians, many gave up though).

So what? Russia is not able to continue the fight without the support of China, Nortkorea, Iran. Should Russia surrender then?

Comparing Chinese “support” of Russia to the support of the West towards Ukraine is a weak-sauce argument. China buys Russian resources on the cheap side, while selling them some of what they need for the money spent on the said resources. Ukraine buys the same Chinese stuff with the funds provided by (mostly) Europe. If Europe stopped the flow of funds or China stoped selling their stuff to Ukraine, Ukraine would lose much faster. There would be no drones, nothing. Ukraine would likely lose without drones within months (or sooner?). This is not hard to deduct.

By that logic, Russia supports Ukraine by selling Europe things like energy resources to power their MIC, nickel and chemicals to build weapons provided to Ukraine, etc.

But yeah, China supports both sides. Europe, at the same time, provided more funds to Russia than it did to Ukraine after the invasion and about half of the funds Russia received from China, for example, during the same period of time. Given the difference in population, Europe, the part that supports Ukraine financially (including militarily) provided about 1.5 times more funds to Russia per capita than China did. Europe also exports goods (including dual-use) to Russia via third countries, as sell as directly. Europe also buys hydrocarbons and their derivatives and finished products from third countries that buy Russian stock for resale. Greeks sold dozens of ships for the Russian so-called “shadow fleet”. And so on. So without European support, Russia could not continue fighting. And again, that support is greater than their supoort of Ukraine.

So, like I said, weak sauce.

Iran and North Korea are largely irrelevant today as far as Russian war effort is concerned. We will have to deal with this “dependence” for years to come though. The US likely (since it is not over) already lost their (stupid) war with Iran, probably with great Russian assistance, some of which was reported in the other thread (some of which I don’t necessarily buy, as I mentioned there). We do not know the scope of the Russian assistance. Perhaps, it was the deciding factor? Who knows. Time will tell what the future brings and, maybe, shed some light on how appropriate the current course of actions is (or if some alternative would had been better).

To sum up, remove all the external support for the conflicting sides and, I believe, it is pretty clear how it would end and when (it would have been early 2022 (probably first quarter, in my opinion) with Ukraine signing the Russian proposal, whatever it would be, namely the Istanbul accords or worse). I do not find the “comparisons” of whoever’s support of Ukraine to that of Russia very rational. Ukraine would lose very long time ago, period. I do not think this is debatable at all.

Is the alternative to surender better fpr the people? No.

I think history will be the judge of that. One can also call it “coming to terms” rather than surrendering.

Ask Ukrainians who fled from the occupied territories.

Counterpoint: we cannot ask Ukrainians who fled to Russia. And there was a great deal of them: numerically, more fled to Russia than any other individual country. If I recall correctly, it was 1.2 million people, according to the UN, and there were nearly 3 million border crossings recorded by Russia. This is from memory, so do not quote me on that.

Will UA win? Depends on the interpretation.
Will Russia win? Depends in the interpretation.

While interpretations will differ, both lost, in my opinion.

The war is a crime by Russia

Does it not depend on interpretation? Every law is.

International law is what people think it is. Countries enter and exit treaties as they see fit. Some countries’ internal laws supersede everything external and they can do whatever the hell they want on the international stage, fully in accordance with their internal laws. Unless I am mistaken, Russian law became above the ”international law” only past the invasion. Prior to that, they complied with the European convention, etc.

Some countries also see that they have interests and security concerns in the Middle East, East Asia, the Pacific, you name it. At the same time, they pretend that the interests and security concerns of others do not exist or are simply made up stuff, even if these interests and concerns are right across the border of “the others”.

Anyway, I will wrap it up here.

 

[rsemmes]

What, nobody mentioned the news Ukraine signed a $2.5 billion contract for 16 Gripen E? While the story didn't explicitly mention it, it's pretty clear that Sweden provided financing.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saab-signs-254-billion-gripen-fighter-jet-deal-with-ukraine-2026-06-30/

Delivery is promised for 2029. President Zelenskiy also mentioned that delivery of Gripen C/D will begin early 2027. I believe this means the Swedish Air Force will hand-over their Gripen C/D to Ukraine after they get enough Gripen E/F.

Old news.

It was posted. It may be relevant after the war, training, maintenance, deliveries...
Pity there is no search tool.

 

[Vivendi]

This:

russians are fighting and dying for the idea of expanding the russian empire.

Do you have some poll I am not aware of that provides us with a glimpse of what Russian troops think they are fighting for?

OK, so there is a misunderstanding here. Perhaps I did not express myself very well. What I meant is that the main purpose of the war is to expand the russian empire. I did not mean to refer to the russian troops themselves, but the russian elite (putin and his cronies).

 

[personaldesas]

You’d have to be insane to even think I will ever be going back to the shithole I came from

I heard versions of that quite often when I went through immigration in Cyprus. It was basically me, Russians, and Ukrainians in the same room, and what you mention here was not exactly a rare sentiment from either side.

That does not necessarily map cleanly onto support for Russia, Ukraine, the war, or any government. A lot of people just wanted out.

 

[Feanor]

I do too. Opinions vary. Here is one (from Chernihiv): “the only difference is whether you get paid in hrivnas or in rubles, but I prefer dollars”. Here is another (from Kharkiv): “Yanukovich should have taken more serious action in 2013 to clear the streets”. Yet another (from Odessa): “wish the Russians could clear this mess and get rid of all the banderites”. Or a hot and loud conversation between two Ukrainians:
- My mother-in-law has to hide in the basement while the orcs are bombing the city! (Kyiv)
- What have you been doing when mine hid in hers in Donetsk in 2014?
In 2023, a guy who moved from Crimea to Canada in 1997: “If the UA army actually moves to retake Crimea, I will have to go back and pick up arms to defend the peninsula” (I doubt he actually would, but the mood is clear as day). Another person from Crimea (Simferopol): “In all the years I have hardly known anyone who could understand Ukrainian. I have also known only one person being proud of the UA flag since its inception and he would hang it outside his house, but he was an old (“unfinished”) banderite”. Another one from Khmelnytskyi: “I moved to Czechia when the war began. After realizing that most business and other happenings in the community (Russians and Ukrainians living in the same community) are done in Russian, I learned Russian (only spoke Ukrainian and little English previously). Moved to Dubai later, working with Russians, and later to Canada. You’d have to be insane to even think I will ever be going back to the shithole I came from”. But he certainly doesn’t support the invasion and his parents are still there.

And so on. Surely, you will meet many more with different and opposite opinions. Not from Crimea though - I have never met a person from there who had anything positive to say about Ukraine. Literally. Not saying they do not exist because they do, but you would certainly have hard times locating one vs locating one that would shit all over the country. You will also have hard time locating people ready to pack and go back, regardless of the area they came from; some may say they would, but when the push comes to shove, they stay put.

The point is that it is far from uniform than it is portrayed to be. And if it was not for the stupid invasion, it would be even less uniform. In fact, it would probably be more uniform (as in back to the absolute majority) “leaning” towards Russia when the EU rejects the Ukrainian membership (rejection does not have to be a straight “no”, but “soon, but not today”). Cities like Odessa, I wouldn’t be surprised even today if told there is a significant chunk of population who would be considered “zhduny” (“waiters”, waiting for the Russians, many gave up though).

It's what leads to the situation where if asked at a peaceful and democratic referendum, the residents of Melitopol' pre-invasion (or post- for that matter) would be very unlikely to vote for seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, but when actually taken over by Russia, there's fairly little in the way of resistance or even protest. It makes it very possible for Russia to take over areas and simply run them like just another piece of Russia with a manageable level of local dissatisfaction, often ameliorated by a generous investment into local infrastructure, and a boost to government worker salaries. Doctors, teachers, firefighters, all tend to make quite a bit more in Russia than Ukraine. This is not to say they're paid well, just better.

 

[personaldesas]

It's what leads to the situation where if asked at a peaceful and democratic referendum, the residents of Melitopol' pre-invasion (or post- for that matter) would be very unlikely to vote for seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, but when actually taken over by Russia, there's fairly little in the way of resistance or even protest. It makes it very possible for Russia to take over areas and simply run them like just another piece of Russia with a manageable level of local dissatisfaction, often ameliorated by a generous investment into local infrastructure, and a boost to government worker salaries. Doctors, teachers, firefighters, all tend to make quite a bit more in Russia than Ukraine. This is not to say they're paid well, just better.

The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are.

 

[Feanor]

The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are.

It's different in different places. If Russia were to occupy the Baltics they would face much more hostility and resistance from the local population than southern and eastern Ukraine. Russia can plausibly assimilate this population. Not replace them with settlers, or mix them in with additional ethnic Russians, but assimilate this very same population. We've seen it with ethnic Ukrainian populations in southern Russia and in the Primor'ye region of the Far East. Genetically those populations haven't gone anywhere, they're still there. But in terms of nationality they don't really see themselves as Ukrainian and many would be surprised if they were told that they were. This matters a lot for Russia's long term ability to hold the area. It's one thing to have an essentially foreign population that tolerates your rule, it's another to have the population consider themselves Russian, regardless of what their genetics and history may be.

 

[swerve]

I sometimes wonder whether the Ukrainian population of Kuban was assimilated or replaced - or if both (which seems most likely), how much of each. Similar numbers of Russians & Ukrainians at the beginning of the 20th century, & hardly any Ukrainians now (<1%) - with a particularly big drop between 1926 & 1939.

 

[Feanor]

I sometimes wonder whether the Ukrainian population of Kuban was assimilated or replaced - or if both (which seems most likely), how much of each. Similar numbers of Russians & Ukrainians at the beginning of the 20th century, & hardly any Ukrainians now (<1%) - with a particularly big drop between 1926 & 1939.

How are the numbers being generated? Usually these numbers for the USSR and Russia are reported as "nationality" rather than ethnicity, and it's self-reported, meaning it doesn't measure the genetic heritage but simply let's people self-identify. I have read accounts that early Soviet authorities set up Ukrainian language schools in southern Russia only for locals to demand Russian-language schools since that was the language of the urban centers and universities. I wouldn't be surprised if that alone changed people's self-identification within a single generation.

 

[personaldesas]

How are the numbers being generated? Usually these numbers for the USSR and Russia are reported as "nationality" rather than ethnicity, and it's self-reported, meaning it doesn't measure the genetic heritage but simply let's people self-identify. I have read accounts that early Soviet authorities set up Ukrainian language schools in southern Russia only for locals to demand Russian-language schools since that was the language of the urban centers and universities. I wouldn't be surprised if that alone changed people's self-identification within a single generation.

I think that is a similar story to what happened in a lot of western states. It's what happened with regional languages in France, native language in Ireland, Scotland, Wales, regional languages in Italy, Low German in Germany, etc. Once education, administration, and social status all run through one prestige language, families shift toward that language for their children. And then over one or two generations loose their distinct culture.

 

[KipPotapych]

OK, so there is a misunderstanding here. Perhaps I did not express myself very well. What I meant is that the main purpose of the war is to expand the russian empire. I did not mean to refer to the russian troops themselves, but the russian elite (putin and his cronies).

Fair enough.

If the expansion is the goal, why was the Istanbul deal offered, namely independence of Donbas (LNR and DNR), while the rest of Ukraine independently heading to the EU? Or so it was implied.

Why was the offer not taken? “We saw Bucha and decided to fight” is for the lemmings. It could not have been the reason for the decision. In fact, the rationale would have dictated that if we fight, there would be slaughter by thousands if Bucha was an indicator and there were millions of people yet under the Russian occupation at the time, to be potentially “genocided”. Russians were offering a voluntary withdrawal from much of the areas they still control today (and in all likelihood will for the foreseeable future).

To go further, why sign Minsk agreements, twice (!), when Ukrainian army was collapsing? Common sense suggests that pushing for a total defeat, collapse of the state, occupation of whatever territory you like, etc. Probability of someone stepping up was about zero. Conquering all of Ukraine east of Dnipro river was a given, as well as Odessa region and beyond, if willing (highly unlikely, a few places aside). All that with a huge chunk of the population supporting this process and celebrating the victory. Enormous support and written legacy for Putin in Russia and beyond. Huge amount of new money for the “club” (RU oligarchs), industrial base, potential for development with limited (relatively speaking) investment, and so on. The good old military industrial complex coming back together again as was intended by the planners. The rest of Ukraine potentially disappearing altogether, whether (willingly) absorbed by neighbouring states like Poland et al, or by the Russian Empire itself. Transnistria becomes another Russian oblast, while Moldova (willingly) joining Romania or the Russian Empire itself along with Transnistria to form a Moldovan Autonomous Republic within the Empire (or Kishinev Oblast). Putin’s name written in the history books (beyond the Russian borders) with equivalency of Peter the Great or greater (Vladimir the Greatest?), relatively stable equilibrium is achieved, everyone is (relatively) happy, the world moves on after some debacles, sanctions (likely nothing compared to what it is today sanctions wise). All other Soviet republics take note and behave, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, and everyone else. Kazakhstan becomes a little less independent; the 2022 “coup” likely never happens. Hell, Nazarbaev is probably still the president and whatever they called him eternal leader, basically the (self-identified) founder. Bashar likely still ruling Syria. A lot more going on too, of course. Yes, all very simplified and compacted, writing without much deliberation. Who knows how Middle East would play out. Maybe Trump would never be elected the first time.

To separate into a new paragraph due to importance, all that ensures the status of a Great Power that is so desired by Russia.

But yes, expansion of territory is certainly the goal, they do need those (now wasteland) extra square kilometres of Donbas so that they can threaten the rest of Ukraine an attack at will, project power into Poland and Baltic States, to keep them on their tiptoes, as well as fighting with NATO over who knows what exactly, but most certainly soon, if not tomorrow.

 

[swerve]

How are the numbers being generated? Usually these numbers for the USSR and Russia are reported as "nationality" rather than ethnicity, and it's self-reported, meaning it doesn't measure the genetic heritage but simply let's people self-identify. I have read accounts that early Soviet authorities set up Ukrainian language schools in southern Russia only for locals to demand Russian-language schools since that was the language of the urban centers and universities. I wouldn't be surprised if that alone changed people's self-identification within a single generation.

Census figures.

The big drop between 1926 & 1939 corresponds with the Holodomor, when there was very high mortality in rural, largely Ukrainian-speaking, areas, but it was already dropping before 1926, which was probably assimilation. People moving from Ukrainian villages to Russian-speaking cities which had received many Russian immigrants in the 19th century would probably have been assimilating quite quickly.

 

[Hoover]

It's all about Zelenski's ego and his corrupt friends!

Says a Russian propagandist? What is about dictator Putin?I can´t take you serous.

1. Without foreign money/weapons, Ukraine couldn't fight at this scale.
2. Ukrainians have no real will to fight, it's only Zelensky coercing them.

Without support by China, Iran and Northkorea Russia would not be able to continue the fight.
And no. I knowing a lot of Ukrainians, here and in the Ukraine. Most of the Ukrainians wants to fight for their freedom and their sovereignty. Not all.
But living under Russian terror is not favorable for them.

Don´t blame Zelennskij for defending the country, blame Putin for starting the war.

 

[rsemmes]

Says a Russian propagandist? What is about dictator Putin?I can´t take you serous.


Without support by China, Iran and Northkorea Russia would not be able to continue the fight.
And no. I knowing a lot of Ukrainians, here and in the Ukraine. Most of the Ukrainians wants to fight for their freedom and their sovereignty. Not all.
But living under Russian terror is not favorable for them.

Don´t blame Zelennskij for defending the country, blame Putin for starting the war.

You are the one providing easy answers, you cannot take yourself seriously.
'Maybe it´s more "Putin sends his soldiers to death because is dreaming of a Great Russia in historical borders?"'

You are saying that Ukraine "would not be able to continue the fight" without China, because China is supporting Ukraine; but not being paid with Ukrainian money.
Iran? You mean when it provided, past tense, Shahed? You mean the drones provided to Ukraine or those build with foreign money?
What, no Russian artillery without NK shells? Do you want to compare numbers provided? How many Ukrainian shells with only 60% of the budget for running the country and the war?
Who is providing 40% of Russia's budget, Iran or NK?

You cannot take yourself (your mantras) seriously.

PS
I don't "blame" Zelenski for defending his country (as I don't blame Putin for "making his country great -again-, if that is what he is doing: "The main purpose of the war is to expand the Russian empire", according to Vivendi). I don't know if Zelenski is demented, delusional or criminal, but he keeps fighting a war he cannot win; and ruining his country by doing it.
Yes, the answer was Istanbul. Once you're in a hole, stop digging!

 

[Hoover]

Yes, the answer was Istanbul. Once you're in a hole, stop digging!

Istanbul? Zelenskij demanded security guaranteees,. Nobody want to gave them. But they gave weapons. What could he do? You cannot trust the Russians, because they broke every treaty with Ukraine. Yes, Urkaine is the victim.

You are saying that Ukraine "would not be able to continue the fight" without China, because China is supporting Ukraine; but not being paid with Ukrainian money.

I said Russia would not be able to continue the fight without the support of China (primarly). But I think you didn´t understand my point: You say: Without western help Ukraine can not fight. Yes. But Russia can not continue the fight without the support of China. So your mantra is wrong.

(as I don't blame Putin for "making his country great -again-, if that is what he is doing: "The main purpose of the war is to expand the Russian empire", according to Vivendi)

Yes, and that is Putin is to be blamed for. He is fighting an illegal war.

 

[rsemmes]

WWIII, at last!

The US has warned Warsaw that Russia is planning an armed “provocation” against Poland to test Nato’s resolve, according to reports.
Sources close to Polish president Karol Nawrocki told Polish outlet Onet that the aim of Moscow’s possible assault, which could be launched in a matter of months, would be to provoke tensions and pressure Ukraine’s Western allies to suspend their military and financial aid.

Russia plotting attack on Poland to test Nato’s resolve, US claims

Vladimir Putin could use an attack on Nato as a bargaining chip for the war in Ukraine, sources told Polish media

www.independent.co.uk

I must confess I am more than a bit confused about how a provocation in Poland is going to make UK keep it shells and SCALPs. Anyway, all I can find is "Washington has issued several warnings to Warsaw" but only "sources close to Karol Nawrocki, the Polish president, told Onet"; in US is "institutional channels within the U.S. intelligence community and the White House".
So... Someone said something, I guess.

 

[rsemmes]

You cannot trust the Russians

Including the Minsk Accords... Yes, reality is exactly as you want it to be, thanks.