The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes

Active Member
China wants Taiwan's chip empire, not the BS Taiwan has always been part of China rhetoric. There would be zero value with a nuked Taiwan.
I think that China wants re-unification, like Ireland. Maybe you have a direct line to Xi, like Trump?

If Taiwan is defending two areas and China nukes one and lands on the other, maybe, Taiwan is going to be “distracted” with the casualties in the first one. Also, maybe China is more considerate and is not going to nuke cities.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
If that is true, it makes the Russian planning look even worse.

Hostomel was a large airfield right on the Belarus-Kyiv axis, close to the capital and close enough to the northern ground thrust to be relieved. If Russia seized that and still had no serious plan to use it for rapid reinforcement, then what exactly was the point?

Not wanting to use it as an airbridge is not a more competent explanation. It is worse. It means they risked elite airborne troops on a high-risk assault against one of the most useful airbridge locations imaginable, then apparently had no meaningful operational use for it.
a/ What planning?
b/ AFAIK that is what you use elite forces for, not for a milk run.

We agree, taking the airbase was valuable and successful. We don't know the Russian plans (unless you have some information that we don't), all we have is that Ukraine lost the airbase but (according to Ukraine) denied its use to Russia, what use?
After a successful coup, I think that the airbase would have been extremely valuable, but the coup failed. How many available options wanted Russia? What contingency plans were studied? I (we) don't know, the simple fact of denying it to Ukraine was already a successful operation. Why risking continuous air operations against that target when you can easily take it?

Russia took the objective, the coup failed and Russia didn't use the airbridge. As for the “why” and the what, when, who, we need the Russian plans, not Ukrainian propaganda.
I never took a course at the Ryazan Guards Higher Airborne Command School, I just provide options based on what I have read.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Centauro has a more powerful gun, & should have better cross-country performance, from its specs.
Even MBTs will their powerful guns and great cross-country performance don't do so well in the current environment. The B1 is better than nothing, Ukraine will certainly take them and use them. But they're not particularly useful. Artillery, especially a modern SP howitzer, would be much better.

China wants Taiwan's chip empire, not the BS Taiwan has always been part of China rhetoric. There would be zero value with a nuked Taiwan.
Nukes are not an automatic apocalypse. They could use low-yield tactical devices in areas well aware from the relevant facilities. They could use them against ships rather than land targets. In general I think lowering the use threshold by setting a precedent with Iran would be a bad thing.
 

Massive

Well-Known Member
Even MBTs will their powerful guns and great cross-country performance don't do so well in the current environment. The B1 is better than nothing, Ukraine will certainly take them and use them. But they're not particularly useful. Artillery, especially a modern SP howitzer, would be much better.
Thanks Feanor,

Greatly appreciate all your efforts on this thread!

Question - what does the Ukraine war tell us about the future of dismounted mortars, towed artillery and even dismounted crew-served machine guns (0.5 cal).

Feel that these are very vulnerable to drones and would be good to understand if they are proving relevant in Ukraine.

Thanks in advance,

Massive
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks Feanor,

Greatly appreciate all your efforts on this thread!

Question - what does the Ukraine war tell us about the future of dismounted mortars, towed artillery and even dismounted crew-served machine guns (0.5 cal).

Feel that these are very vulnerable to drones and would be good to understand if they are proving relevant in Ukraine.

Thanks in advance,

Massive
Great question. One comment I've found from both Ukrainian and Russian sources is that towed guns can be more survivable than their SP counterparts. This is because permanently destroying a towed gun is hard, and they're much easier to hide. This suggests to me that they have quite the future in the current environment. I think range is a big factor, so improved range and the use of guided shells will likely play a larger and larger role. Concealed and hardened positions are also a big part, and at present those can sometimes matter more than mobility. It's hard to tell where the balance is. PzH-2000s and Caesars did great for Ukraine, but when they ran short on longer ranged shells and had to bring them closer, they started losing them. Would Russia have managed to solve for the issue of dealing with them had they stayed at longer ranges? Maybe, maybe not.

Dismounted mortars remain a regular feature on the current battlefield, and generally we're seeing the same kind of hardened position, with sophisticated concealment that we see for howitzers. Presumably they still have a future, under the same caveat as below. However we also see both Ukraine, and especially Russia producing improvised SP mortars. This suggests a definite need to SP mortar. At present there seems to be room for both weapon systems.

Dismounted crew-served belt-fed weapons are particularly near and dear to my heart. Their use has changed substantially in this war, however it's clear they haven't gone away. Russian and Ukrainian dismounts regularly use MMGs to both provide suppressing fire on the attack, and on the defense. In situations where drones dominate the sky and the terrain is relatively open, they have little chance, as any machinegun position gets hit by a drone, but if friend efforts have shut down enemy recon drones, they can operate for quite some time. The days of machinegun hill with a 6-gun section laying down fire to suppress an enemy defense line while an entire rifle company assaults it, are clearly over. At least for the time being. But dismounted belt-fed weapons in general remain relevant. In fact UAVs have created a new niche for belt-fed grenade launchers like Mk-19s and the Soviet/Russian AGS family, where they're used as indirect fire weapons that lay down a high volume of fire, corrected by UAVs. I do think HMGs for dismounted use are now going to be more niche than ever before, because their ammo is heavier, and they require more time to set up and employ effectively (though here the Russian Kord has an advantage over the venerable M2, with it's bipods) and their ammo weighs more and takes up more space, making it more difficult to carry and supply into the kill zone.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
As for the “why” and the what, when, who, we need the Russian plans, not Ukrainian propaganda.
I never took a course at the Ryazan Guards Higher Airborne Command School, I just provide options based on what I have read.
Sure. And if a masked man kicks in my door at 3 a.m., grabs my TV, and starts climbing out the window with it, maybe he is an electrician checking the HDMI ports. I do not have his written plan, after all. His true intentions remain unknowable.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Dismounted mortars remain a regular feature on the current battlefield, and generally we're seeing the same kind of hardened position, with sophisticated concealment that we see for howitzers. Presumably they still have a future, under the same caveat as below. However we also see both Ukraine, and especially Russia producing improvised SP mortars. This suggests a definite need to SP mortar. At present there seems to be room for both weapon systems.
Sweden, Finland & Poland can supply them off the shelf.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Ukraine hit a Russian S-300 radar with a RAM-2X loitering munition somewhere in the Donbas.
I sincerely hope the officer commanding has been demoted, at least. Moving it in daylight without any kind of protection detail?
Obviously, we don't know where it was and why it has to move, but a better operation could have been planned; like moving it with a dummy.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Exactly. “What planning?” is pretty much the criticism.



Exactly! High-risk, high-value objectives. Not seizing one of the best possible airbridge locations near Kyiv and then apparently just hang out there.
So, you don't know the plan but you call it "inconpetence" because it didn't happen what you think should had happened.

All right.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Sweden, Finland & Poland can supply them off the shelf.
I dont think they're willing to sell to Russia, nevermind the obvious logistical problems. Presumably they'd sell to Ukraine, but the cost becomes an issue.

I sincerely hope the officer commanding has been demoted, at least. Moving it in daylight without any kind of protection detail?
Obviously, we don't know where it was and why it has to move, but a better operation could have been planned; like moving it with a dummy.
Yeah, it doesn't look good but we don't have the full story either. There could have been multiple drones, with the C-UAS pickets engaging the other drones and this one getting through and we just have footage of this one. Also this could be quite far from the front lines. Remember the drone in question is the one responsible for striking the new highway along the Azov sea coast.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Kyiv has a six-month window to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and improve its leverage in potential peace talks.
“We need to define those directions where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points, and then speak with the Russians from a position of strength – not weakness – about a truly stable truce.” Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky.

“It does seem like, four or five months into this year, it’s much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point.”
“The lack of personnel no longer allows them to advance the way they did, for example, a year ago.” John Helin, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group
Ukrainian General Says Russia Is Exhausted, Predicts Major War ‘Turning Point’ (And then theguardian and theindependent)

Ukraine will not win this war, that general is talking about “taking strategic points” for the negotiations; Ukraine already tried and failed, Russia abandoned a lot of territory.
He is not saying that Ukraine will collapse, he is not saying that Ukraine will stop getting hit by massive waves of drones and missiles, it is a lot simpler. Russia will run out of men, Russia has to run out of men before Ukraine because Ukraine is going to collapse.
He is not explaining how to seize the initiative, Ukraine cannot do that, it depends on Russia running out of men; and someone else providing the weapons and the money to hold on those six months, obviously.
He doesn't consider the possibility, for example, of Russia taking another break at the front line and then, instead of this winter, it is going to be 2028.

Yes, my reading of this article is biased, true; because all I can see is wishful thinking. They failed the last four years, but this time, this one, it's going to work. (I don't say it's impossible, Ukraine may take Robotine again.)
And then they go to Istanbul and refuse to sign the agreement, again.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
“Whose side are they on?” Ukraine's Kostyuk rips into Russian players at Roland Garros

Kostyuk, who will next face Russian Mirra Andreeva, said she no longer accepted the argument that Russian athletes could remain silent because of possible repercussions at home.

“There is a way if you don’t agree,” Kostyuk told reporters. “I know some people who have left Russia the moment the war began, who sold all their business, who left everything behind because they just don’t agree with what their country is doing to other people.”

She cited fellow player Daria Kasatkina, who switched her allegiance from Russia to Australia last year, as an example of someone who had publicly spoken out despite pressure on her family.

“I don’t think she lives in ‌Russia anyways, ⁠but the majority of players don’t live in Russia,” Kostyuk said. “There is nothing that’s stopping you if this is something you don’t believe in.

“After four years, I think they’ve made it very clear whose side they are on.”

Kostyuk’s comments came after she was asked about remarks from Russian players including Diana Shnaider and Andreeva, who have previously said they ⁠focus only on the tennis ball and avoid political discussion.

“They are all grown-ups. They know what they’re talking about. They know what’s going on. They have phones. They have Instagram. They have news,” Kostyuk said.

“I wish there was some more ⁠clear stance on what’s going on, especially when your country is killing other people.”


The answer is extremely simple:

In general, why such an idiotic expectation from the Russian people? Are they somehow different than anyone else? Different from McFaul there or any other average American? Anyone else? Don’t reflections come after wars? And usually after a loss?

These expectations are especially strange when directed towards Russian politicians or those wannabes “in exile”. Imagine one saying I stand against Russia, Russia must lose and suffer, etc. Imagine an American saying the US soldiers should be killed by buckets, the country suffer tremendously, etc. This is one if the most idiotic things in this war. There are a few like this from the Russian side - absolute majority of them in Ukraine - they are seen as traitors and pariahs in Russia, as they should because that is normal and expected. It would be a bizarro world if that was not the case.


On the other hand, why wouldn’t this athlete or any other “activist” publicly denounce the actions of the Ukrainian government in the past few weeks regarding the Nazi shenanigans (surely people are aware or I can make some citations to the events that took place). Instead, what I see for the most part is full support and falling in line. Ukrainians (even those I see as reasonable) are arguing with Poles on social media calling the history a hoax and shit that had never happened. Poles are pretty pissed off, by the way. As they should be and so should anyone else. But for some reason most aren’t and, at best, don’t particularly care. Very weird stuff. As long as they are “defending us”, am I right? Laughing. Popular among Poles today:

IMG_5344.jpeg

I think one can also guess why Israel is not overly supportive and any normal Jew, and especially those directly affected by Holocaust (are there many whose families weren’t), would ask the question of “What the fuck?” But Zelensky is a jew, right? Laughing again.


Edit: Mr McFaul doesn’t sleep and provides a… counterpoint, of sorts, to his own arguments:

IMG_5351.jpeg

On this note, what’s with this regular comparison with the nazi Germany? More idiotic stuff from this war. Let’s simply put it this way: with nuclear armed Nazi Germany today, Ukraine (and, more importantly, Ukrainians) would stop existing long ago, shortly after or, most likely, before the invasion. And so would those supporters that did not fall in line. The difference is that obvious. Is it not? This is before even touching on any serious discussion of the subject.

Much confusion and all, McFaul is still a scholar and should get a grip. Like seriously, one has to be a complete idiot to make this comparison seriously. Yet a whole bunch of people who know better constantly do. Complete loss of credibility.

What’s special about McFaul in particular, he was in the position of making a difference, understanding the situation better than others, but he always chose confrontation, promoting some “Russian democracy” instead of understanding the actual issue and Russia in general, while the deterioration of relationship took place.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
On a separate note, a lot of reports lately about the “turning the tide”, “soon to collapse”, and the like. Funny enough, a lot of it from the same authors as in 2022, shortly after the invasion and then later that year, in 2023, during and past Prigozhin, and so on. This a not bad of a read:

 
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