The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Minor note, what I though was a water treatment plant west of Rodinskoe, is in fact a mine complex with pits where resources had been extracted now filled with water. This mine complex does not have a particularly large refuse mound, but even a modest elevation coupled with heavy industrial structures provides a decent advantage, and has been the key to Ukrainian forces re-entering Rodinskoe over and over again. Russia won't be able to secure the town until they take that position, and they seem to realize that. Currently they're flanking it from the north and south. There are in fact tree lines running along the fields that run right up to the complex, but it's currently winter, so the lack of foliage means they offer relatively little concealment. I think we will see a Russian attempt to take this mine complex, and I personally suspect the first attempt won't be successful. I think it will take multiple tries to get it right.

Tangentially relevant to this, it seems Russian forward elements entered Biletskoe, the next little town in western Donetsk region, but there's no confirmation of their consolidation or elimination. It will be interesting to see if Russia focuses on eliminating the Ukrainian positions at the mine complex first, or goes for Biletskoe instead. The capture if Biletskoe could threaten the supply lines into the entire area north of Pokrovsk by placing them within easy drone range. From the Ukrainian side this area has been one they've been actively focused on. I think they understand very well Russia's intent and have successfully prevented any dramatic Russian advances after the fall of Pokrovsk, seemingly having learned the lessons of Avdeevka (even while Ukrainian officialdom continued to pretend Pokrovsk hadn't fallen). I think fighting in the arc from just north of Dobropol'ye down to Rodinskoe and even Grishino is key to the upcoming fight for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Two other possibilities are open to Russian command, one is quite slow and difficult, the taking of Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka, enveloping the Kramatorsk area from the south-west. The other would be to rebuild the salient north of Mirnograd and bypass the Dobropol'ye area that way. They're in the process of doing both things but it's slow going.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Neither reality nor History are going to be moved by what you want (the number or Russian aircraft built every year),
"Want" has nothing do do with my post. I simply provided some evidence for the # of manufactured airframes.

like (the number of Ukrainian casualties or the number of casualties) or believe.
My "belief" is based off of long standing casualty estimating methodologies from either professional militaries (FM101-1, for example) or commercial ones, such as QJM.

What is your estimate ?

What anyone believes being the most irrelevant part of the whole lot.
"Belief" without data is "faith". "Faith" is the word you should of used.

“The entire context of your original statement is designed to imply UKR is fighting against its own will, pushed along by shadowy conspiracies.” May I remind you that English is not my first language?
May I remind you I have offered you the chance to clarify your statement in a simple way to avoid any language barriers.

May I remind you that again, you have refused to clarify your position.

Thanks for the compliment, anyway, about my mastery of that language.
Our on-going conversation is literally proof of just the opposite.

On the other hand, like with “forced to”, you are just inventing it.
Would you be so kind as to show us who, besides you, posted “forced to”, when and where? That is not in any EU statement.
EU ? What rabbit-hole have you delved into ? Your statement implies that you think that forces outside of UKR are forcing it to fight. I offered you several chances to clarify. Instead of doing so, you simply duck, dodge and weave. Its becoming your calling card.


By Poland and Germany. You can use History to emphasize your point, but you cannot delete the rest of it; the parts that you don't like. Obviously, you can, but that will only add to the want-like-believe side of things; not everyone is going to be happy with that.

The only positive point that I see (hardly) in you post is that in Istanbul, in 2022,
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/a456d6dd8e27e830/e279a252-full.pdf
Russia's position was 85.000, Ukraine's 250.000, but there was no peace agreement, so we don't know about any final number nor about what intervention by what guarantors.
The recent US plan mentioned 600.000, European counter-proposal 800.000.
https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...er-proposal-us-ukraine-peace-plan-2025-11-23/
After that counter-proposal, Ukraine is taking those 800.000. Again, we/western Europe want Ukraine “in the fight”, but it seems that we don't want a "rump" Ukraine.

We already provided you with this.

Let's go for a different fantasy.
In ten years, Poland abandons the EU (I never imagined the UK doing that), Poland decides that it wants to be Great Again and invades Ukraine to recover Lwów. I don't know what leader is going to be in power in Poland in ten years, but I do trust that a British leader will invade foreign countries. Maybe that weak Ukraine is not such a bad idea considering the interests of every other country.
Fantasy being the keyword of your attempts to divert the conversation off-tangent.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Well, we finally have RU admitting that the Moskva was indeed sunk by enemy action, and not another smoking incident.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russ...fficer-for-sinking-of-moskva-missile-cruiser/ (links form Mediazona)

Oddly enough the RU courts have sentenced the UKR commander to life in prison for having the audacity to fight back. Maybe finally the widows and orphans of the Moskva crewmen will get compensation from RU instead of being declared "missing".
 
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