Small caveat: Of course German borders have been "corrected" in over a dozen bilateral treaties since then, in some cases gaining hundreds to thousands of km², and also some population. The only German border to another country that is untouched is the one to Denmark. Notionally the borders are defined as "final" since the peace treaty signed in 1990 (in which Germany also relinquished rights to territories east of the Oder and Neisse river), although that hasn't stopped further border corrections going on since then.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
@Feanor, to add to our previous discussion of DRG vs small assault/infiltration groups:
This is what I was talking about: these reports of DRG being here and there, I believe, are not entirely appropriate. It seems to me that these groups are actual small assault units strategically send to collapse the defense lines. They aren’t sent there for recon or sabotage, but to infiltrate, possibly wait for more units to arrive, and basically dismantle the Ukrainian defense lines to achieve small localized breakthroughs and advance quickly to and beyond the next line, likely without immediately securing the occupied positions due to the severe lack of infantry on the Ukrainian side. Rinse and repeat where it works. Something like that.
Some feedback on the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania seems to like this idea:
So why can’t Europe do just that? I am not suggesting they should, I asking why wouldn’t they? What are they even mulling over with Trump if the solution is right there and that simple?
Tatarigami seems to think that freezing the current frontline with no additional demands could be a “decent and realistic” outcome:
Not sure if there is some level of delusion involved or if this is intentional.
Some reports suggest that there is a proposal of freezing the current lines and limiting “both nations forces”. I’ll have what they are having, as the saying goes.
I don’t entirely disagree with this guy (have a very vague idea of who he is though and anyone who puts “PhD” in their handle should be treated with suspicion). I don’t think he is completely spot on, but I agree with the general idea:
This is what I was talking about: these reports of DRG being here and there, I believe, are not entirely appropriate. It seems to me that these groups are actual small assault units strategically send to collapse the defense lines. They aren’t sent there for recon or sabotage, but to infiltrate, possibly wait for more units to arrive, and basically dismantle the Ukrainian defense lines to achieve small localized breakthroughs and advance quickly to and beyond the next line, likely without immediately securing the occupied positions due to the severe lack of infantry on the Ukrainian side. Rinse and repeat where it works. Something like that.
Some feedback on the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania seems to like this idea:
So why can’t Europe do just that? I am not suggesting they should, I asking why wouldn’t they? What are they even mulling over with Trump if the solution is right there and that simple?
Tatarigami seems to think that freezing the current frontline with no additional demands could be a “decent and realistic” outcome:
Not sure if there is some level of delusion involved or if this is intentional.
Some reports suggest that there is a proposal of freezing the current lines and limiting “both nations forces”. I’ll have what they are having, as the saying goes.
I don’t entirely disagree with this guy (have a very vague idea of who he is though and anyone who puts “PhD” in their handle should be treated with suspicion). I don’t think he is completely spot on, but I agree with the general idea:
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Some “fine fellas” on the right of the right spectrum in Germany, nonetheless members of government, suggest this should be corrected:
For some orientation, the author of that post and his statements are the reason why "the fellas on the right of the right spectrum" from France, Italy and the Czech Republic kicked his party out of their European Parliament faction. He's also got "certain connections" to both Russia and China.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,705
Yes, it does seem we might be seeing the war shift again. It will be interesting to see if this phenomena spreads, or if it's just the consequences of a local weakness. Pokrovsk itself is easier to hand-waive away, urban terrain can be hard to control. But in the northern pincer? Maybe Ukraine has re-allocated units from neighboring sectors to shore up the Pokrovsk area, creating this opening. Maybe this is the new normal, where troop densities for Ukraine have dropped below a critical level. If true, we should see this start happening in other areas too.
What he suggests isn't really possible. The German populations in those areas mostly don't exit anymore. Many were forcibly removed following WWII.
Point taken, but in general Germany isn't seeking to reclaim the bulk of the territories. And it may be the case that an initial surrender of territory by Ukraine will be followed up by other adjustments of the new border in multiple subsequent treaties.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Looks like a breakthrough past the hyped new defense line (meant for stopping amour).
Edit:
Different perspective:
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,707
AMK has a similar size salient. Suriyakmaps extends the grey zone to a similar scale and in the past he has used grey zone to indicate Russian penetration when actual consolidation could not be confirmed. From the pro-Russia side ZOV Pobedy reports possibly an even firmer penetration. So DS is definitely not alone in reporting this.
Russian invasion of Ukraine Control Map - Google My Maps
Map showing the areas of control from each side. My twitter: https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_ My telegram: t.me/AMK_Mapping
www.google.com
Новости СВО и Мира ©
Наши воины освободили нп. Кучеров Яр, также продвинулись и зашли в южную часть села Веселое и продвинулись в направлении села Грузское. Также продолжается зачистка нп. Золотой Колодезь. Освобождено 19.8 км².
t.me
EDIT: Kalibrated now shows a deep Russian penetration, with a grey zone extending towards Dobropol'ye. It appears my earlier supposition was correct, they're aiming for Dobropol'ye before they even take Pokrovsk.
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.
www.google.com
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Actually the background for both of those "stories" is that with almost absolute certainty the target programming for Taurus requires encryption keys. And those are not leaving NATO hands.
PachkaSigaret
Member
That certainly doesn't look good. Such a shortage of manpower at a critical defensive position. I know people have a reasonable and understandable problem with Ukraine negotiating not to withdraw from the Donbass but with advances like this it's entirely feasible Russia is going to end up with all of it in time. They're clearly winning.
Russia certainly has a keen sense of all the issue the Ukrainians are currently having. This is another good reason not to put too much stock in the current negotiations. How many times has Trump flip flopped? Recent statements by Zelensky clearly shows he isn't on board. I think Russia might use these talks as an opportunity to try and beguile Trump with flattery. I feel like they're really banking on Zelensky(Or Europeans for that matter) to not make any concessions. That may cause Trump to at least temporarily to flail and go against Zelensky more extremely. The problem with Trump is that he is so jumbled it's hard for anyone to take too seriously, but he's too serious to be ignored as well.EDIT: Kalibrated now shows a deep Russian penetration, with a grey zone extending towards Dobropol'ye. It appears my earlier supposition was correct, they're aiming for Dobropol'ye before they even take Pokrovsk.
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #12,710
Sometimes it's because it's a critical position that this happens. Command doesn't report their losses accurately, higher levels of decision-makers assume the positions are adequately defended, and meanwhile the delta piles up, the deserters multiple as the situation gets worse, and suddenly the one spot where the most resources are needed is being shorted. This may not be the result of an overall shortage. Then again it may be. Ukraine certainly doesn't appear to be that short everywhere. I guess if we start seeing multiple penetrations like this across many areas, my view would change. I also still allow for the possibility that Ukraine is in the act of withdrawing from the Pokrovsk area.
Perhaps. It certainly would make sense.
Just read about the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska – and I'm stunned. They're planning to discuss Ukraine's future...without Ukraine at the table! After all the "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" promises, how did Zelensky allow this?
We American taxpayers have poured billions into Ukraine – weapons, equipment, humanitarian aid. And now it seems decisions will be made behind closed doors while Kyiv just waits to be informed. Is this a diplomatic failure or the start of some backroom deal where Ukraine becomes a bargaining chip? Most importantly – what exactly are our tax dollars funding?
We American taxpayers have poured billions into Ukraine – weapons, equipment, humanitarian aid. And now it seems decisions will be made behind closed doors while Kyiv just waits to be informed. Is this a diplomatic failure or the start of some backroom deal where Ukraine becomes a bargaining chip? Most importantly – what exactly are our tax dollars funding?
Attachments
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I think people read too many fairytales over the past few years to seriously consider the argument that Zelensky can or cannot allow some talks/negotiations without participation of Ukraine. Real world doesn’t work like that. In order to have some/great influence over others, one needs to have much to offer and/or have capabilities to achieve results (or to achieve result with provided capabilities, perhaps, in this case). Otherwise, one will not be considered to be a serious player when push comes to shove at best and will be manipulated and taken advantage off at worst. I asked before, think back in history and provide an example where ending the war went along the lines of what Zelensky or European allies have been suggesting for months now (as of a a few days ago the suggestion differ). There is no precedent for this line of thinking and there won’t be one set here, for obvious reasons.
Prior to Trump being elected again, there was no talk of negotiations until Ukraine had an arbitrary upper hand (no one defined what it is either). Suggestion of ceasefire was the greatest blasphemy and extremely bad for Ukraine, but great for Russia. Putin must be prosecuted. And so on. Now, when Trump showed that he meant what he was saying (instead of fantasies many had projected), ceasefire became something greatly desired by Ukraine and negotiations should be taking place, personal meeting with Putin (who is not to be negotiated with, according to the very position Ukraine had taken on Zelensky’s orders), compromises should be made, start with the freezing the line of contact, now land swaps.
Consider the commitment principle I talked about here numerous times. Little by little the so-called unified West had committed itself from oral support to Javelins to HIMARS to armour and tanks to Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACM to F-16 to alleged readiness to send troops to the western Ukraine by the coalition of the willing and whatnot. That took over three years. Now consider what has been achieved by the Russian side in 7-8 months. Putin is supposed to meet the president of the United States three days from today. On the American soil, to boot. Commitment is one of the most powerful things as far as human behaviour/interaction is concerned, even though people dismiss it as a nothing burger. This is a big problem for Ukraine. People they had committed to their cause are going to be replaced with others via democratic process and these others didn’t make (or approve of) the commitments their predecessors made. For instance, Trump disassociated himself from Biden’s commitments long before being elected and multiple times since. He also committed himself to ending the war. He also committed himself to normalizing relationship with Russia. It all matters. We have seen how it progressed since he returned to the office.
Yesterday Trump was saying the following (and he didn’t even meet Putin yet):
Like someone suggested, I think it was Feanor, that this thing could blow up yet. We don’t know. We also don’t know if/when it does, where the blow will be directed. It is what it is.
How could Zelensky allow it to happen? The answer is pretty clear: he does not have any real influence here and this is apparent from his actions. I have little doubt many people are working overtime to insert Zelensky into the Alaska meeting. To me the purpose of that is unknown and it would do no good (quite the opposite, actually). We will see what happens soon enough.
P. S. Ironically, the image you attached also does not have Zelensky or Ukraine present.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Should it have?