The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

Russia blew multiple bridges, and is capturing multiple groups of POWs. Ukraine has also rapidly retreated from a number of locales under threat of encirclement. I think the Ukrainian story that they totally stopped the pipeline attack is nonsense. I think Russia successfully caused Ukrainian forces to withdraw by pressuring the routes in and out of Sudzha area, and simultaneously launching an attack well inside of what Ukraine thought their perimeter was. As a result Ukraine is left with a small fraction of what they held in Sudzha, and it's not clear the situation stabilized. Sudzha itself is contested now. And Ukraine's reserves aren't going there to keep up that fight, they're being sent to other areas, to counter-attack there. And this makes sense.



Sorry but no, this isn't the case. Russian artillery bombardments are not area bombardments similar to WWII. They're much slower and they're aimed at specific targets. Artemovsk/Bakhmut wasn't reduced to rubble in a week of heavy bombardment before a general assault. It was a slow back and forth. The level of destruction is due to the very slow movement of the front coupled with heavy back and forth fighting. Areas Russia takes relatively rapidly don't see the same destruction. Places like Selidovo and even Kurakhovo are relatively intact.



It indicates priorities. They're not interested in leveling the cities, they're interested in striking Ukrainian troops at the front. Or at least they're so little interested in leveling cities that they dedicate no resources to it.



60%? Why not 90%? 99%? Is there any reliable data on interception rates? Or just Ukraine's claims? Like when they first claimed that the Kh-22 hit a building in Dnepropetrovsk because they shot it down. Then they claimed they didn't shoot it down, and Russia hit the building on purpose, and in fact Ukraine doesn't have the ability to shoot down these missiles. Then when faced with their own prior claims of downing they claimed those were lies but now they're telling the truth.



You can see Russian FPV drones in Pokrovsk ignore civilians walking around and strike military vehicles instead. Some would argue this is a form of restraint.

Apparently bloggers are claiming that Russian special forces were requesting on line prior to the events in the pipeline oxygen masks for a Kersk operation and Ukraine came to right conclusion

 

[KipPotapych]

This is the original post that everyone refers to, seeking oxygen tanks in Kursk:

Моисей | БА | СпН | МО РФ

Срочно нужны на завтра в Курске кислородные балоны. Очень срочно, вопросы зачем итд автоматом в бан на бутылку. Кто может помочь, жду очень.

t.me

Note that the post dates March 1 and he is looking for tanks for “tomorrow”.

I would have to agree for now that the stuff Ukrainians are posting is rubbish. The video circulating with drone footage showing (presumably) Russian troops and then some strikes over the area are not indicative of… well, anything. These videos are dime a dozen, from both sides.

This Ukrainian account suggests that they weren’t able to prepare “gifts” in time (but asking how many Russians the OP killed with his post):

Exilenova+

Есть один покемон, которого переиграла наша разведка Балоны мальчикам действительно пригодились, успеть подготовить "подарки" судя по всему не успели, НО Но с информацией сработали на-ура, результат выше Моисей, признавайся, сколько русосвинов этим постом ты убил?

t.me

This Ukrainian account shows the map of the frontline after the pipe travels by the Russians:

Dnipro Osint ⟨ Гарбуз ⟩

Ситуація на Курщині, карта лінії бойового зіткнення. Без допису/коментарів ️Dnipro Osint | Чат

t.me

This is the map:



This is a map from about 10 hours ago:



Another thing is that the Ukrainian sources I just looked through dedicated a post or two to the event, mostly citing the official video circulating everywhere. Normally, in a similar event, there is a dozen of posts with a lot of gloating and the like.

From what I can tell, the best case scenario is that they saw the post, made the “right” conclusions, however unlikely, and monitored the entire length (!) of the pipeline; more realistic scenario is that they saw the Russian troops near the pipeline or “all over the place”, shelled them as best as they could, someone remembered the post they saw a few days prior, and used it for propaganda.

 

[Fredled]

Please note, that Ukrainians are also not showing restraint in their attacks on Russia neither. Just the consequences are smaller.
Even as they express readiness to start peace talks and sign the Rare Mineral Deal.
Ukraine on Tuesday launched its biggest ever drone attack on Moscow, killing at least two workers at a meat warehouse, injuring 18 others (Reuters)

It's not clear what the targets were. The workers were killed by fallen debris according to the Russians. It's not even clear if there was a target inside Moscow's urban area.
According to Ukrinform, which quotes Radio Liberty, Ukrainians made drone attacks in many different regions of Russia at the same time last night.

According to the ministry’s report, Russia shot down 91 drones over Moscow region, 126 over Kursk region, 38 over Bryansk region, 25 over Belgorod region, 22 over Ryazan region, and 10 over Kaluga region.

Also, UAVs were allegedly intercepted over Lipetsk, Oryol, Voronezh, and Nizhny Novgorod regions.

Zhukovsky and Domodedovo airports have suspended operations due to a drone attack, Rosaviatsia reported. Later, they also noted that arrivals and departures at the Vnukovo airport had been put on hold.

The Moscow Railways reported that the rail infrastructure at the Domodedovo station had sustained damage.

In addition to Moscow, residents of Ryazan are reporting an UAV attack on the Diaghilev military airfield.

link

See the compilation from security camera and smartphone footage with the original soundtrack and expletives made by Canal13.

__________

I would have to agree for now that the stuff Ukrainians are posting is rubbish.

Except that my account of the event was based on a pro-Russian video, one of the first posted on line.
He said clearly that they were shelled by Ukrainian artillery when they emerged from the tube and ran for cover in the trees. Then continues his narration adding "but..." and explaining later why it was nonetheless a success.

Now it's possible that despite artillery fire, a certain number of Russian soldiers managed to escape the shelling area and stay somewhere.
Much more significant is the general collapse of the Kursk front.

Considering video of destruction of column that retreated so disorganised that did not even know about destroyed bridge, so got blobbed letting it easily being destroyed by Russian artillery. Cars that were in such panic that crashed into destroyed bridges.

There was certainly disorganisation and heavy losses during this retreat due to Russian shelling and drone attacks, Retreating forces are always very vulnerable.

Oh and if you believe in downed 60% i do have nice metal tower in Paris to sell for scrap metal to you.

60%? Why not 90%? 99%? Is there any reliable data on interception rates? Or just Ukraine's claims?

This is the estimate from western sources. Obviously you won't find Russian sources to corroborate.

It indicates priorities. They're not interested in levelling the cities, they're interested in striking Ukrainian troops at the front. Or at least they're so little interested in levelling cities that they dedicate no resources to it.

I agree. I wrote that in response to @rsemmes when he said that Putin was restraining himself because he didn't order the total destruction of Ukrainian cities as the Allies did on Germany in ww2.
My point is that not only it's not the priorities for the Russians in the current circumstances but they also have no way to do it. After they have used everything for the most prioritised targets, they have little left for levelling cities if they wanted to. Therefore, it can't be accounted as a sign of restraint.

 

[rsemmes]

My point is that not only it's not the priorities for the Russians in the current circumstances but they also have no way to do it. After they have used everything for the most prioritised targets, they have little left for levelling cities if they wanted to. Therefore, it can't be accounted as a sign of restraint.

Neither Kant nor Socatres, nor my Philosophy teacher, would agree with your very personal "logic".

 

[tank3487]

Except that my account of the event was based on a pro-Russian video, one of the first posted on line.
He said clearly that they were shelled by Ukrainian artillery when they emerged from the tube and ran for cover in the trees. Then continues his narration adding "but..." and explaining later why it was nonetheless a success.

There is full report by Russian first channel available now(in Russian of course). They had correspondent with assault group. In total it was 800 troops(300 in initial wave and 500 during the day) that were being accumulated for 4 days in digged out chambers. It is actually full of information how operation was organized. Including mention of methan poisoning during preparation due to gas pressure pushing out stub before they welded metal. They actually say that Ukrainian side had reacted only to one of the last batch of troops so only them got shelled a bit before dispersing to cover(it is actually explain why Ukrainian side wrongly estimated tunnel troops only as 100 and why it allowed such fast collapse of Ukrainian frontline).

Эксклюзивный репортаж Амира Юсупова о невероятной операции наших бойцов, которые по газопроводу зашли в Суджу. Новости. Первый канал

This is the estimate from western sources. Obviously you won't find Russian sources to corroborate.

And they are based on Ukrainian data. Which mean its useless propaganda. You really need to see WW2 reported and factual difference to get why such claims bring only laught.

 

[Redshift]

The threat of the Soviet Army invading Europe... the threat of an asteroid hitting the planet... "Feeling" a threat is not an actual threat.

And yet that "feeling of a threat" which did not actually exist was the reason for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There was no threat of an invasion of Russia by NATO but Putin and Russia "felt" that there was.

You have wrapped yourself up in knots with that one.

Europe and NATO can't act to defend itself on a "feeling" but Russia can invade it's neighbour hmmmmm.

 

[rsemmes]

And yet that "feeling of a threat" which did not actually exist was the reason for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There was no threat of an invasion of Russia by NATO but Putin and Russia "felt" that there was.
You have wrapped yourself up in knots with that one.
Europe and NATO can't act to defend itself on a "feeling" but Russia can invade it's neighbour hmmmmm.

Try again.
From what Disney movie is that version?

Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Maybe 2014 has something to do with that. Another question would be if Russia considers NATO as a threat, we see Russia as a threat, don't we?

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal on a immediate 30 day ceasefire. Will Russia go along with it? I personally don't think so, coupled with the fact that the U.S. is resuming aid and military assistance off the backdrop. Russia has so far remained consistent with it's demands. A temporary ceasefire will benefit Ukraine more. Just to speculate here, I feel like a longer ceasefire might backfire on Ukraine. I feel like once soldiers leave the front and are rotated out... I don't think many will be eager to return to the lines in a resumption of hostilities. We'll just have to see, any a number of things can happen.

BREAKING: Ukraine Agrees to 30 Day Ceasefire/ Will Russia?

 

[KipPotapych]

Just to speculate here, I feel like a longer ceasefire might backfire on Ukraine.

Once the martial law is lifted and borders open, the outflow of people from Ukriane is a given. Many won’t stay and wait for the resumption of hostilities to defend a failing state. Permanent peace is preferable to both sides (kind of an obvious statement, ha!), but the sides are too far apart on what this peace should look like.

Now that the Kursk issue is closed, or to be so in the next few days, it isn’t clear that Russia won’t accept a ceasefire, pending conditions, perhaps.

Resumption of military aid should not be a big issue because there isn’t that much aid that is being held up - most of the funds have already been used up and the major items that are left are long-term aid, beyond the 30-day proposal. Everything else remains the same, ceasefire or not. And the aid is reportedly to be resumed anyway.

The biggest issue is regrouping and organization of defense lines by the Ukrainian side. On the other hand, Russia needs to regroup itself and move forces to the east where they are… perhaps, not losing the initiative, but experiencing difficulties, which I am sure are temporary in nature. With the Kursk saga over, Russia has considerable resources to spare, whether progressing in Sumy or relocating them to the east (and south) or both.

The question is to what end: what is the end game? If the proposed peace conditions are not acceptable to Russia from the start, then there is no point to pause. If they it is something they can work with and get some sanctions relief on top…

It would certainly be a breather that Ukraine desperately needs. Like a whistle and a disputed offside during an intense hockey game where the disputing side cannot change the players and is losing the game.

 

[Redshift]

Try again.
From what Disney movie is that version?

Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Maybe 2014 has something to do with that. Another question would be if Russia considers NATO as a threat, we see Russia as a threat, don't we?

But you said "feelings" don't count? So make your mind up

 

[Redshift]

But you said "feelings" don't count? So make your mind up

I think you will find that Russia cited "de natzification" as a prinary readon for invading Ukraine as well as NATO membership, troops etc etc. many many "feelings" of a threat but "feelings" don't count.

 

[hauritz]

A US sponsored ceasefire, if agreed, actually puts a lot of pressure on the US.

If the Russian’s refuse the ceasefire it is a big slap in the face for Trump. If the Russian’s accept the ceasefire and then subsequently break it, it makes the US look like it was played and they would be forced to either backdown or move to support Ukraine.

 

[SinisterMinister]

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal on a immediate 30 day ceasefire. Will Russia go along with it? I personally don't think so, coupled with the fact that the U.S. is resuming aid and military assistance off the backdrop. Russia has so far remained consistent with it's demands. A temporary ceasefire will benefit Ukraine more.

I'd say this "ceasefire" is just another superficial concession wrung out of a partner by Trump's hysterionics. The playbook is quite trite at this point.

I would agree with Suriyak's assessment below that there is no actual expectation that Russia will entertain the offer. Ukraine has far, far more to gain from a 30 day pause. The entire affair is just a dog and pony show to give Trump another "win" that actually means nothing.

I'd wager that there was never any intention of fully withdrawing aid and all the blather was just Trump's typical posturing. He has no actual plan that survives contact with reality.

 

[vikingatespam]

A US sponsored ceasefire, if agreed, actually puts a lot of pressure on the US.

If the Russian’s refuse the ceasefire it is a big slap in the face for Trump. If the Russian’s accept the ceasefire and then subsequently break it, it makes the US look like it was played and they would be forced to either backdown or move to support Ukraine.

Political.Theatre.

There is supposedly a meeting with RU officials about this on Thursday. It will be interesting to see the outcome. if RU says no, the US can increase aid. Does Putin think a long term war is winnable ?

 

[crest]

Political.Theatre.

There is supposedly a meeting with RU officials about this on Thursday. It will be interesting to see the outcome. if RU says no, the US can increase aid. Does Putin think a long term war is winnable ?

I would assume he does, I mean he's still waging the war,still keeping the same demands and still holding up well economically, not to mention his allies don't seem to be wavering. In the case of China well China's motives to help are arguably stronger under trump then they were under bider

 

[Fredled]

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal on a immediate 30 day ceasefire. Will Russia go along with it? I personally don't think so,

It will depends on their success in the Kursk Oblast. If they completely destroyed the Ukrainian defence potential there, they will see that they are able to move into Sumy or to redivert troops to Pokrovsk or somewhere else.
They may not reject the ceasefire outright but drag their feet to gain some territory after the Ukrainian defeat in Kursk.

However, I don't think that it's the case. We will know it in the next days.

IMO, the Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk Oblast started 2 or 3 weeks ago when they were still holding the south of Pogrebki. They kept their position in Pogrebki and elsewhere to cover the retreat and making it less visible.
The turning point was when Ukrainians were defeated in Berdin. Then they understood that Russians were much stronger than they thought and that it was time to prepare to withdraw.
It's also possible that the withdrawal was a secret condition demanded by Putin to Donald Trump to start the peace talks, then by Donald Trum to Zelensky to resume or not cut military aid.

When Ukrainian left Pogrebki, Russians undertood that a withdrawal was under way and attempted to block it by launching assaults across the border from the west of Sudzha and from the other side, from the south east of Sudzha to cut the retreating route to Ukraine.
They had partial success because the width of the evacuation corridor was reduced and put compltely under Russian artillery range. Partial because they failed to completely cut it.

After that, everything accelerated. Ukrainian fearing an encirclement withdrew their troops as fast as possible, abandonning their defensive positions while Russians moved in quickly to take maximum advantage of the situation.

According to this pro-Russian Youtube channel, Russians have already entered Sudzha and Ukrainians are on their way out of the city..

Everything will depend on the Ukrainian forces remaining to defend the Sumy Region south of Sudzha. If Russians see an oportunity to take this region, they may not agree to a ceasefire yet.
However if the see that Ukrainians are still strong and will make advance south of Pokrovsk, then, they may agree.

A pause on ground offensives would allow Russia to accumulate forces for further assaults. But Ukrainians will also reinforce their defence line and their military in general. Both sides will be rearming But Russia will have the advantage in a ceasefire if it last a few weeks or months. If it last one year or more, the Ukrainians will have the advantage because they will recieve new batches of western weapons and have new units trained.

The big problem is how this ceasefire will be respected...

I feel like once soldiers leave the front and are rotated out... I don't think many will be eager to return to the lines in a resumption of hostilities.

On the other hand, if the front line is safer, and joining the military is safer, Ukrainians may recruit more people.

Once the martial law is lifted and borders open, the outflow of people from Ukriane is a given. Many won’t stay and wait for the resumption of hostilities to defend a failing state.

Ukrainians are not going to lift the martial law soon. And when they will do it, the situation will have stabilised and people will return to Ukraine.

 

[KipPotapych]

Does Putin think a long term war is winnable ?

I think a lot depends on the alternatives offered.

All depends on the details that we are not privileged to at this time. If this is all theres is (as per the Bloomberg’s political editor), I wouldn’t expect an agreement:



This is basically the usual noise that Russia has no intent of accepting. Is there more? I would think there is. Otherwise, I simply do not see how Russia can benefit and would be incentivized to agree to this ceasefire.

Well, they can also take the bluff and agree, regroup and prepare for an offensive heading into April-May, add another 30K troops, pound Ukriane with thousands of Shaheds at once, multiple times over once the pause is over, etc.

Lot’s of talk about “Russia will break it”. As if people are forgetting that there two sides here that can break the ceasefire if agreed to.

Ukrainians are not going to lift the martial law soon. And when they will do it, the situation will have stabilised and people will return to Ukraine.

The latest poll I saw (I think it was from the Kiev Institute, but can’t be sure) indicated that over 20% or respondents said they will leave regardless what happens. A whole bunch more are debating it (I would read it as leave if they can).

I was responding to “long-lasting ceasefire”. They will have to lift the martial law in those circumstances. It is obvious.

 

[Fredled]

Does Putin think a long term war is winnable ?

Not only he does, but he also believe that the war should continue until the total victory of Russia over the West.
I don't like to make guess, but it's quite possible that Putin will reject the cease fire for the sake of continuing the war as a crusade against the West. This guy is crazy and may not take a rational decision.

 

[KipPotapych]

Fredled, you sure must have internal sources everywhere because you seem to, with the utmost certainty, know what Putin, Trump, and almost everyone else think or feel.

 

[Fredled]

I simply do not see how Russia can benefit and would be incentivized to agree to this ceasefire.

Simply put: If he doesn;t the US will give Ukraine enough military aid to at least destroy the Russian army even further and with a high chance that Ukraine will liberate another big area.
It will be extremely risky for Putin to refuse a ceasefire. But, as I said above, his decisions are not rational. So it's hard to tell what he will do.