The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
Further OSINT analaysis of the missiles
BBc livethread also saying that according to analysts its an S-300
There have been a lot of claims that Russia has been using S-300s for ground attacks, but the talk has also been that Russia has been using older SOviet S-300 missiles for gorund attacks which have shorter range.
Its still too early, but it does seem like its a Ukr S-300 so far. Some people also cliaming that this was trying to intercept a Kh-101, but so far no picture evidence of the intercepted Kh-101 in Poland. We will get more info soon.
But if this does lead to ATACMS for Ukraine, what will be its impact, it is a tactical wepon, but considering just how miuh the Himars changed the landscape of the war so far, significant ATACMS numbers will be a great thron on Russia's side.
BBc livethread also saying that according to analysts its an S-300
There have been a lot of claims that Russia has been using S-300s for ground attacks, but the talk has also been that Russia has been using older SOviet S-300 missiles for gorund attacks which have shorter range.
Its still too early, but it does seem like its a Ukr S-300 so far. Some people also cliaming that this was trying to intercept a Kh-101, but so far no picture evidence of the intercepted Kh-101 in Poland. We will get more info soon.
But if this does lead to ATACMS for Ukraine, what will be its impact, it is a tactical wepon, but considering just how miuh the Himars changed the landscape of the war so far, significant ATACMS numbers will be a great thron on Russia's side.
It could be a failure of the SAM, and a SAM that missed the inbound but then failed, simply kept flying.
The point is that any UAS; whether one with
a "low-cost nature" such as the TB2 or a higher end one; would be vulnerable if faced with similar operational challenges. As it stands the Ukrainians like other users have more han got have got back their money's worth from buying the TB2.
As Justin Bronk mentions we have to make a distinction between low intensity counter to insurgency type ops and high intensity ones in which UASs are bound to be arttrited.
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Spillover of war into Poland
1. It is wrong to think that ceasefires are an unambiguous good. They are not. It depends on the conflict and its particular phase. A temporary pause of fighting at this moment in Ukraine would benefit Russia more. But, at some point the parties need to talk, for hostilities to cease.
3. NATO as an alliance will work to determine exactly what transpired; and what the appropriate response to it should be. It's not in NATOs interests to rush into a confrontation with Russia before all facts are known.
4. Meanwhile, here’s an American reaction to President Zelenskyy trying to drag NATO into a conflict, Biden and other NATO members want to avoid.
1. It is wrong to think that ceasefires are an unambiguous good. They are not. It depends on the conflict and its particular phase. A temporary pause of fighting at this moment in Ukraine would benefit Russia more. But, at some point the parties need to talk, for hostilities to cease.
2. Yes, it could be the case; air defence missiles do sometimes go astray. President Biden, says world leaders will "support Poland's investigation into the explosion" near the Ukrainian border.
3. NATO as an alliance will work to determine exactly what transpired; and what the appropriate response to it should be. It's not in NATOs interests to rush into a confrontation with Russia before all facts are known.
4. Meanwhile, here’s an American reaction to President Zelenskyy trying to drag NATO into a conflict, Biden and other NATO members want to avoid.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
In a contested environment where both sides are afraid to climb notably above the treeline in fear of being shot down, yes. But drones do have their uses in high intensity combat.
For example, many of the reports of Israeli strikes in Iran, refer to drones. Drones had their role in the sweeping 1982 strike on Syria's air defense network.
Also the dense Syrian AD network actually deals more with drones than with manned aircraft, and it doesn't shoot them down.
The TB2 is advertised as having advanced navigation systems like GPS-free, autonomous, return to base feature if comms are disrupted. But that's not enough.
Powerful EW, cyber, SIGINT, and anti-jamming systems which it currently lacks are needed to both persist on the battlefield, and to cause a powerful effect
Under the right operational conditions any UAS [whether a lower range TB2 or a higher range Hermes] would be vulnerable to MANPADs or flak.
That's the point I'm driving at. Ukrainian UASs have been vulnerable because of the altitude they fly in; the density of Russian AD coverage and the fact that Russia has decent EW capabilities.
Yes to be a devil's advocate in 1982 was Syria's AD network configured to deal with high level or lower level threats? Were they even expecting to face such a threat and what was their level of training?
If Israel actually lost any UASs would it openly say so and do the Syrians deploy AD systems as they should be; as part of a layered defence or are systems like Pantsir deployed in a stand alone function [like in Libya] making them vulnerable to UASs?
Unless I'm mistaken Israel only usually admits or reports on losses if they were the result of malfunctions or it can't be kept under wraps; like the loss of a F-16 to a Syrian Gammon some years back. If a UASs was hit by a Syrian MANPADS would it be reported by Israel?
Israeli drone crashes in Lebanon due to malfunction
Army says no sensitive info lost in incident; according to Al-Manar, spy plane was destroyed by second aircraft after going down in country's south
www.timesofisrael.com
Two Israeli drones fall in Beirut suburbs, one explodes: army, Hezbollah
An Israeli drone fell in the Hezbollah-dominated southern suburbs of Beirut and a second one exploded near the ground early on Sunday, the Lebanese army and Hezbollah said, in the first such incident in more than a decade.
www.reuters.com
Yes you keep alluding to the TB2 limitations but Baykar never made any claims it was comparable to a much more expensive UAS. As it stands it has been acquired by various customers who are generally satisfied with it; it does its job. BTW Anka which the Turks operate in conjunction with the TB2 is equipped with EW and other payloads.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
There are ways to employ drones effectively. Ukraine, however, is missing many of the components necessary to turn drones from a standalone system competing with Russian AD, EW, and AF, into a part of a larger tool box and a force multiplier.
Ukraine bought them to serve a limited role of armed tactical drone. When circumstances necessitated standoff strike, non-kinetic effects and intelligence, they have outlived their usefulness.
You missed my point, which is that the general discourse about the TB2 is based on false premises, and that its false reputation may lead others to make mistakes. Was Poland making a mistake buying the TB2? Probably not, because they have complementary capabilities. But buying military equipment just for its reputation, and later finding out it underperforms, certainly is not unheard of.
Another point I tried to convey is that they have a key role in high intensity warfare, i.e. between peers.
Not so relevant considering that in that specific instance, drones were used as decoys.
Don't know, depends on the situation. But generally if such instances do occur, they are highly publicized and include photographic evidence.
Syrian AD is decentralized, meaning each system is on its own. Coordination and networking exists only on the local level, and in a rather primitive manner. Still, Syria definitely has the tools to down drones like the Ukrainians do. But because Israel doesn't use its drones like Ukraine used its TB2s, the challenge is different, potentially explaining low attrition for one, and high for the other.
By the way, Russian AD is also decentralized.
Maybe so but this limitations would have a bearing on any UAS which was operated and as it stands; the TB2 a times was a very effective strike platform.
I would think that they have a key role in any kind of war; i e. whether a counter insurgency or non high intensity non peer one such as encountered in Afghanistan; the raids the Israelis perform in Syria in a threat environment somewhat lower than in the Ukraine or a high intensity one in the Ukraine against a foe which has a layered and dense AD network backed by an effective EW capability.
I think that remains to be seen; still early days into the conflict notwithstanding the fact that it's been months now. Ukrainian propaganda asidet here were periods when the TB2 was extremely useful or relevant and times less so; depends on operational conditions.
Indeed and the only reason I asked the question is because you made a reference to 1982. Unless I'm mistaken the Syrians did engage and hit the decoys in the belief they were manned targets; thus it would seem that the Syrian AD network in the Bekaa had the ability to detect and hit small targets.
I do get your point. The point I'm trying to make is that the fact that TB2 may lack certain things a higher end UAS has it's irrelevant. Its maker never made the claim that it provides the came capability as a higher end more expensive platform. As it stands under the right conditions any UAS would be vulnerable and the fact that TB2 may lack certain capabilities doesn't distract from the fact that a number of users who have employed it in combat are extremely happy with it and were never under any illusions about what it can or can't do.
I would think there would be a difference between army and air force AD in terms on centralisation and that the level of centralisation would also depend on whether we're talking about AD forward deployed in the Ukraine and Syria or operating at home.
All UASs need to be employed with the right enablers and I haven't heard of a TB2 customer which has bought it "reputation, and later finding out it underperforms". I can actually point out examples of non TB2 customers which have bought UASs only to find out they didn't perform as advertised.
I have nothing for or against the TB2; it provides a great capability at a great price and it should be seen in that context.
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The frist confirmed ceaser damaged by a Lancet. Looks like it hit the chasis.
Another M777 taken out. A large number of lancet videos are on towed arty. Its a lot harder to shoot and scoot with towed artillery.
OSA in a parked building. The black smoke indicates a hit. The HEAT warhead lancets are quite a threat. The older weaker lancets and Kubs probably would not have been able to do much damage when hitting the roof
Lancet hit on S300 radar vehicle. Note the missing generator, either abondoned or a decoy
Another M777 taken out. A large number of lancet videos are on towed arty. Its a lot harder to shoot and scoot with towed artillery.
OSA in a parked building. The black smoke indicates a hit. The HEAT warhead lancets are quite a threat. The older weaker lancets and Kubs probably would not have been able to do much damage when hitting the roof
Lancet hit on S300 radar vehicle. Note the missing generator, either abondoned or a decoy
The switch blade 300 was a dissapointmeent, Ukrainain soldeirs did not like using them, there were some videos and they were very underwhelming. The UKR prefer their grenada drone drops and seeing how effective they are with them, can't disagree.
Now the Switchblade 600 and the phoenix ghost are supposed to be completely different, but most pro Ukr commenters believe that the US asked them not t release any footage of their uses, and I have no seen any videos of them being used either. So we have no way of judging their effectiveness.
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Maybe they've just been practising their assaults and announcements to make sure that they get both right and to lull the Ukrainians into a false sense of security. It could be one of Darth Putin's exceedingly cunning plans.
How do you explains this then?
I suspect we're dealing with premature announcements. When the 155th first entered Pavlovka, it was announced that they had taken the town. Only after did it become clear they only had ~60% of it. For Pervomayskoe the same, it was initially reported as taken, but now we can clearly see it isn't fully cleared. For Opytnoe and Vodyanoe north of Peski, initially both were reported as taken, but not we can see only Opytnoe was cleared, Vodyanoe remains contested. Part of the problem is that they don't often issue retractions when the initial information proves to be inaccurate. Even colonelcassad, biased as he is, often highlights that news of something being taken are premature.
Update. Nov 5th-6th
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Ukrainian M-777 and M-109 getting hit by loitering munitions, Kherson region.
vk.com
vk.com
t.me
A captured Kipri MRAP, Kherson region.
vk.com
Russian National Guard SpN in Kherson region.
vk.com
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Russian strikes landing in Zaporozhye.
t.me
LDNR Front.
DNR forces taking a Ukrainian position between Pervomayskoe, Vodyanoe, and Peski.
vk.com
DNR forces using Krasnopol' rounds against a Ukrainian SP Howitzer.
vk.com
Ukrainian positions getting hit by incendiary munitions near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
t.me
vk.com
Two M-777s getting hit by allegedly Wagner artillery near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
t.me
vk.com
1st Slavyanskaya Bde firing Giatsint-B on Ukrainian positions around Avdeevka.
vk.com
Combat footage from Pavlovka, presumably from the recent battle, from the Ukrainian side.
vk.com
Russian loitering munition strikes, in Pavlovka. Note, after Russian infantry got bogged down, they did exactly what I suggested. They used quite a few loitering munitions to hit Ukrainian vehicles. The Caesar getting hit was apparently there.
vk.com
Rebel Sparta btln has taken some Ukrainian positions, near Donetsk, moving the front line back from the city. Note, we get footage of the destroyed sand-colored M113, and BMP-3. I think this is that column we saw getting hit.
vk.com
Footage from inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The town is slowly being destroyed.
Russia.
A Russian infrastructure object in Grayvoron area, Belgorod region, got hit.
t.me
Misc.
Allegedly a Ukrainian tank getting taken out by a Russian tank waiting in ambush. It's hard to tell but the tank getting hit looks like a T-64BV, and the Russian one like a T-72B3, but it's hard to be sure. Location unclear.
t.me
vk.com
Footage of a Ukrainian position getting assaulted. Two T-72B3s come out, one of them hits a land mine but apparently continues firing. Allegedly the end clip of Russian/rebel infantry entering the trenches is the conclusion of the episode, taking the position that the tanks were firing on.
vk.com
Ukrainian S-300 TEL getting hit by a loitering munition. I think it's the same video from before, from Zaporozhye.
Ukrainian BMP-2 destroyed by Russian artillery.
A Bushmaster destroyed, allegedly by a Russian SpN ambush, somewhere in the Donbas.
vk.com
Some footage of a Russian repair btln in the war.
vk.com
There was much back and forth about whether Ukrainian service members openly wear Nazi symbols. Ukrainian footage tends to be much more controlled, and the flow of information is far more restricted. However....
t.me
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Ukrainian M-777 and M-109 getting hit by loitering munitions, Kherson region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Colonelcassad
Еще кадры ударов "Ланцетов" от РИА "Новости". Уничтожение 155-мм САУ M109 + уничтожение буксируемой 155-мм гаубицы M777.
t.me
A captured Kipri MRAP, Kherson region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian National Guard SpN in Kherson region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Russian strikes landing in Zaporozhye.
Colonelcassad
Последствия ночных прилетов "Гераней" в Запорожье. Несмотря на рассказы про "успехи ПВО", БПЛА-камикадзе продолжают успешно поражать различные цели.
t.me
LDNR Front.
DNR forces taking a Ukrainian position between Pervomayskoe, Vodyanoe, and Peski.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
DNR forces using Krasnopol' rounds against a Ukrainian SP Howitzer.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian positions getting hit by incendiary munitions near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
Военный Осведомитель
Украинские военные в районе Бахмута снимают бомбардировку их позиций зажигательными боеприпасами @milinfolive
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Two M-777s getting hit by allegedly Wagner artillery near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
Позывной Брюс
Артиллеристы ЧВК «Вагнер» удалили из чата две американские гаубицы M777. Бахмутское направление. #эксклюзив @brussinf
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
1st Slavyanskaya Bde firing Giatsint-B on Ukrainian positions around Avdeevka.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Combat footage from Pavlovka, presumably from the recent battle, from the Ukrainian side.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian loitering munition strikes, in Pavlovka. Note, after Russian infantry got bogged down, they did exactly what I suggested. They used quite a few loitering munitions to hit Ukrainian vehicles. The Caesar getting hit was apparently there.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Rebel Sparta btln has taken some Ukrainian positions, near Donetsk, moving the front line back from the city. Note, we get footage of the destroyed sand-colored M113, and BMP-3. I think this is that column we saw getting hit.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Footage from inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The town is slowly being destroyed.
Russia.
A Russian infrastructure object in Grayvoron area, Belgorod region, got hit.
Colonelcassad
ВСУ обстреляли инфраструктурный объект в Грайворонском районе Белгородской области. На месте обстрела возник пожар. Горит резервуар с растворителем.
t.me
Misc.
Allegedly a Ukrainian tank getting taken out by a Russian tank waiting in ambush. It's hard to tell but the tank getting hit looks like a T-64BV, and the Russian one like a T-72B3, but it's hard to be sure. Location unclear.
Colonelcassad
Красивое. Ближний танковый бой. Наши танкисты подкараулили зазевавшихся украинских танкистов. Кто там еще несколько лет назад рассказывал, что война изменилась и теперь танки с танками уже почти не воюют...
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Footage of a Ukrainian position getting assaulted. Two T-72B3s come out, one of them hits a land mine but apparently continues firing. Allegedly the end clip of Russian/rebel infantry entering the trenches is the conclusion of the episode, taking the position that the tanks were firing on.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian S-300 TEL getting hit by a loitering munition. I think it's the same video from before, from Zaporozhye.
Ukrainian BMP-2 destroyed by Russian artillery.
A Bushmaster destroyed, allegedly by a Russian SpN ambush, somewhere in the Donbas.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Some footage of a Russian repair btln in the war.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
There was much back and forth about whether Ukrainian service members openly wear Nazi symbols. Ukrainian footage tends to be much more controlled, and the flow of information is far more restricted. However....
Colonelcassad
Израильский журналист слегка удивляется, что в украинских поездах встречаются такие персонажи. Ничего удивительного тут как раз нет - для современной Украины это норма.
t.me
Russia does not have to go far to find Nazis
Pro-Russian Fighter With Nazi Patches Gets Medal for Killing 'Nazis' (newsweek.com)
I find the hypocrisy of this moralisation about insignia when there have been widespread atrocities committed against civilians that would have been of a nature comparable to S.S units in WW2
UN Commission concludes that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine, expresses concern about suffering of civilians | United Nations in Ukraine
Pro-Russian Fighter With Nazi Patches Gets Medal for Killing 'Nazis' (newsweek.com)
I find the hypocrisy of this moralisation about insignia when there have been widespread atrocities committed against civilians that would have been of a nature comparable to S.S units in WW2
UN Commission concludes that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine, expresses concern about suffering of civilians | United Nations in Ukraine
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Apparently analysis of the missile strike into Poland suggests its trajectory eliminates Russia as the launch source.
breakingdefense.com
Errant Ukrainian missile likely the cause of explosion that killed 2 civilians: Polish president - Breaking Defense
The day after an explosion near Poland's border with Ukraine caused the death of two civilians, Polish President Andrzej Duda and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the errant missile is not believed to have been fired by Russia.
breakingdefense.com