The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update.

Zmeiniy Island.

We have reports of major combat action at Zmeiniy Island. It appears Ukraine launched a strike using Bayraktars to take out the air defenses on Zmeiniy, Russian sources confirm losses of a Tor, a Strela-10, and a ZU-23-2 (also a small landing ship and a Coast Guard boat). This was followed by an Su-27 bombing strike on the island. After this things get murky. It appears Ukraine attempted a combine aerial and naval landing on the island, but this failed. Russian sources claimed downed Ukrainian jets (1 Su-24, 1 Su-27) and helos (3 Mi-8s), 2 or 3 (sources differ) Bayraktars, and there is footage of Ukrainian vessels heading away from the island, possibly due to an aborted landing. Russian sources also claim (unsubstantiated) a destroyed Ukrainian landing boat. The Russian story is that a Ukrainian boat and the helos actually made landfall and were then hit.

Colonelcassad

У острове Змеиный БПЛА "Байрактар" добился попадания в десантный катер типа "Серна" (61 тонн стандартного водоизмещения").

t.me

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Colonelcassad

МО РФ о попытке атаки острова Змеиный: В районе острова Змеиный сбиты в воздухе: украинский бомбардировщик Су-24, истребитель Су-27, три вертолета Ми-8 с десантом и два беспилотных летательных аппарата "Байрактар-ТБ2"

t.me

Colonelcassad

Также во время неудачной попытки Украины атаковать остров Змеиный был уничтожен украинский десантно-штурмовой катер "Станислав". Фактически, это аналог атакованной "Байрактаром" во время этих событий российской "Серны" - 55 тонн водоизмещения, экипаж 5 человек, перевозит до 25-30 человек...

t.me

Рыбарь

Подробности сегодняшней атаки ВСУ на Змеиный. Остров был использован в качестве приманки: силы ВС РФ с него снялись ещё утром и отошли. Транспортные вертолеты армейской авиации Ми-8 и десантный катер «Станислав» спокойно достигли берегов острова и начали высаживать десант. После этого ВС РФ...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Итак, из того что известно по поводу событий последних дней у острова Змеиный РФ Поврежден/уничтожен 1 пограничный катер Поврежден/уничтожен 1 десантно-штурмовой катер Поврежден ЗРК "Тор" Уничтожена 1 установка "Стрела 10" Уничтожена 1 установка ЗУ-23/2 Потери в людях неизвестны Украина...

t.me

Повёрнутые на войне

Предложка и вопросы: @voenacher_zov_bot По вопросам рекламы: @VoenacherAdvert_bot Сборка дронов @Sborka_upyr_bot @pnv_dozor_bot - Передай информацию об обнаружении скопления инопланетян

t.me

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Военный Осведомитель

На вечернем брифинге МО РФ заявило об отражении попытки украинской атаки острова "Змеиный". Мы нашили спутниковые фото, согласно которым попытка морского десанта на остров Змеиный со стороны ВСУ действительно имела место быть. На одном из снимков от 7 мая в кадр попали два судна ВМСУ, держащих...

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Odessa got hit, again.

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Colonelcassad

Последствия сегодняшних ударов по Одессе. Поражено несколько целей

t.me

Artillery exchanges continue on the Nikolaev-Kherson axis.

Повёрнутые на войне

Ким, ну чё там с шутками о параде, а рыбалка как?

t.me

Colonelcassad

Позиции ВСУ под Николаевым продолжают обрабатывать.

t.me

Russian flag was raised in Snegirevka, Nikolaev region. Note, this town is on the eastern outskirts of Nikolaev region, north-north-east of Kherson city.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️В Снигиревке в Николаевской области подняли флаг России и установили Знамя Победы⚡️

t.me

Russian National Guard patrolling the beach in Kherson region.

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Russian National Guard handing out St. George ribbons in Kherson region.

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Turchak, the General Secretary of Russia's ruling United Russia party, in a recent visit to Kherson area together with head of the DNR Pushilin, stated that Russia is here to stay in Kherson. It appears Russia might be planning direct annexation of Kherson region. If this is true, it's likely that annexation of LDNR areas is also possible. He also states that Kherson is part of the "large family of Russia" and promises lower energy costs and transport costs due to Russian subsidies (internal pricing).

WarGonzo

⚡️Турчак в Херсоне: Россия здесь навсегда⚡️ Глава ДНР Денис Пушилин и генсек ЕР Андрей Турчак побывали в Херсоне и встретились с руководителем военно-гражданской администрации области Владимиром Сальдо. На встрече Турчак произнес принципиальную для россиян и местных жителей фразу: «Россия...

t.me

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Ukrainian MiG-29 over Odessa with an air-to-air payload. Unclear if related to recent action at Zmeiniy.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk

We have a report of two rebel tankers taken POW by Ukraine being tortured. Reliability is uncertain, but... Warning graphic footage.

Оперативные сводки

⚡️ Подписчики пишут: двое танкистов из танкового батальона 100-й бригады ДНР попали в плен к азовцам во время боя в Запорожской области. Зверье избивает наших бойцов и издевается над ними, видео и фото ужасные. Мы должны освободить наших парней. Обращаемся ко всем каналам: распространите эту...

t.me

We have a report of two US fighters wounded near Zaporozhye area.

Dambiev

Еще двоих раненных американских наемников-инструкторов эвакуируют в тыл с Запорожской области.

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Ukrainian pontoon bridge in Kharkov region gets hit.

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Explosions in Severnaya Saltovka, north-east of Kharkov, likely a Russian strike.

Рыбарь

Взрывы в Северной Салтовке на северо-востоке Харькова. #Украина #Харьков @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Destroyed Russian T-90M northern Kharkov region.

"Прорывы" тоже горят...!

gurkhan.blogspot.com

There is a report of a refugee column out of Volchansk heading to Kharkov being fired on by a Ukrainian checkpoint.

РИА Новости

Украинские боевики расстреляли колонну беженцев, следовавшую из Волчанска в Харьков, есть жертвы и раненые, рассказал РИА Новости очевидец

t.me

Alleged US Phoenix Ghost loitering munition went down in Kharkov region.

РаZвед_ДоZор

Представляем вашему вниманию дрон-камикадзе Phoenix Ghost, разработанный американской компанией Aevex Aerospace специально для войны против ЛДНР и России. Зафиксирована первая попытка применения данного беспилотника в Харьковской области… неудачная. @razved_dozor

t.me

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Ukrainian Tu-143 shot down, Kharkov region.

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Russian Msta-S operating in Kharkov region. The artillerymen state these are new howitzers from 2019, meaning they are likely Msta-SM (2S19M2) or possible upgraded 2S19M1.

ANNA NEWS

Российские установки 2С19 "Мста-С" в ходе операции на Украине Российские самоходные артиллерийские установки 2С19 "Мста-С" работают по позициям ВСУ в Харьковской области. @anna_news

t.me

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Volchansk in Kharkov area. LNR Troops of the Interior have taken over security duties in the area. The line between rebel forces, Russian irregulars, and Russian regulars, is starting to blur.

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The Izyum Salient.

Russian SpN in action near Liman. Warning footage of corpses.

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Russian TOS-1 strikes near Krasniy Liman.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ "Солнцепёк" выжигает укрепрайон ВСУ на Донбассе, выжившие нацисты в ужасе пытаются спастись бегством Тяжёлые огнемётные системы ТОС-1А бьют по обороне врага в окрестностях Красного Лимана в ходе наступления Армии России в ДНР. Эти удары наводят ужас и повергают в бегство нацистов, но убежать...

t.me

Kotsnews

ТОС "Солнцепек" группировки Отважных на Лиманском направлении демилитаризирует позиции и штаб ВСУ. Видел под Сулиговкой результат подобной работы. С опознанием там проблемы. Воин ВСУ, носи при себе документы. @sashakots

t.me

Russian 2S7M in action near Izyum. They were previously reported operating near Kharkov. It's unclear whether they actually moved, this is a different 2S7 unit, or the initial reports were inaccurate.

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Старше Эдды

Будни войны, Изюмский фронт.

t.me

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Destroyed light armor in Borovaya, near Izyum. One is definitely a Ukrainian BTR-3, the other is a BMP-2 allegedly Ukrainian.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Уничтоженная техника украинских боевиков в пгт Боровая Харьковской области Российские войска закрепились на левом берегу Оскольского водохранилища на юго-востоке Харьковской области и продолжают наступление. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Ukrainian BTR-3s, one destroyed, one captured, near Izyum.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Уничтоженный и захваченный армией России украинские БТР-3 на Изюмском фронте t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

3 destroyed vehicles near Liman, two are BTR-80s with slat armor, and one is a T-72B3mod'16. All 3 are claimed as Ukrainian, though the latter very obviously isn't. Unclear on the BTR-80s.

Kotsnews

Демилитаризованная группировкой «О» техника противника на Лиманском направлении. @sashakots

t.me

Ukrainian T-64BV captured, Izyum Salient. Allegedly it had a tool kit with Nazi symbols.

WarJournal [Z]

Очередной трофей российских военных на изюмском фронте. Танк на ходу, после небольшого техобслуживания будет служить на стороне добра. При осмотре трофея также был обнаружен ящик для инструментов с нацистской символикой. Впрочем, ничего нового. @warjournaltg

t.me

A Ukrainian infiltrator team with anti-tank weapons and mines was allegedly taken out in the woods near Izyum.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Российский спецназ выследил и уничтожил спецгруппу ВСУ в лесах Изюмщины Вражеские диверсанты действовали в лесах Харьковской области. Среди привычных «Джавелинов» есть и особенные экземпляры, такие как одноразовая РПГ испанского производства Instalaza C90 и немецкие мины DM22. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Russian SpN operating near Liman.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️"Отважные" на Лиманском направлении Спецгруппа армии России на разведмероприятии. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Captured Ukrainian weapons, near Liman. Milan-2 ATGMs, Stingers, AT-4s, NLAWs, various AKs, and a Stugna-P.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️Трофейный ПТУР Милан 2Т (тандемный), поставленный Францией в Украину⚡️

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Спецназ "Отважных" изучает многочисленные трофеи из стран НАТО, добытые в бою на Лиманском направлении Войска продолжают наступление и берут множество трофеев: На фото из интересного: Трофейный французский ПТУР "Милан" Американский ПЗРК Стингер 4 шведских гранатомёта At-4 Украинский станковый...

t.me

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Ukrainian BTR (70?) captured in the Izyum Salient, with weapons.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️"Отважные" захватили вражеский БТР с кучей оружия на Харьковщине Армия России продолжает уничтожать ВСУ на Изюмском направлении. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Assorted footage, Izyum.

Старше Эдды

Будни войны, Изюм.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

LDNR Front.

LNR forces in action, outskirts of Severodonetsk, near Purdovka.

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Allegedly Ukrainian tank knocked out in Avdeevka.

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Russian T-72B3mod'16 in action, LNR area. This is likely somewhere near Severodonetsk.

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Chechen fighters near Voevodovka, LNR area. Kadyrov claims the town has fallen. In the video we can see what appear to be overrun Ukrainian positions, sporting a DP-27, a M2 .50cal, and a captured BMP-1. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

В дополнение к заявлениям https://t.me/boris_rozhin/47096 гауляйтера оккупированных территорий ЛНР о боях за Воеводовку. Кадыров сообщает https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/2046, что поселок Воеводовка взят, а лес в ее районе зачищен. Противник понес тяжелые потери в людях и технике.

t.me

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Russian mercenaries operating in and around Popasnaya. Note the allegedly captured MT-12 Rapira AT-gun being used as artillery.

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After several assaults by Russian mercenaries, Popasnaya has fallen.

Попасную взяли

Это было мучительно-долго, но тем не менее. Сегодня взяли Попасную. Остатки сил 24-й омбр еще утром оставили свои позиции в городе и отошли. Центр города полностью контролируется нашими войсками. Зачистка еще продолжается на северных и западных окраинах. По факту, самый крупный успех за последние…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

GREY ZONE

«Группа Вагнера» в Попасной, Луганская область. Спустя восемь лет и десяток локаций – те, кого нет, вернулись туда, где их нет… туда, где всё и начиналось.

t.me

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Позывной Брюс

Первые доказательства освобождения Попасной. Эксклюзивные кадры взятого сегодня утром опорного пункта ВСУ на южной окраине города. Это был самый укрепленный участок их обороны.

t.me

The Energomashspetstal' factory in Kramatorsk has been hit pretty hard.

Милитарист

В Краматорске утром был уничтожен один из цехов машиностроительного завода «Энергомашспецсталь»

t.me

Рядовой на проводе

✔️ Краматорск, 10 минут назад было три мощных прилета по позициям ВСУ в районе завода "Энергомашспецсталь". @Soldierline

t.me

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Alleged air defense intercepts over Alchevsk, context unclear.

Colonelcassad

В районе Алчевска сбиты 3 воздушных цели. На фото, поражение двух из них.

t.me

Ukrainian Kozak armored car captured by the LNR 7th Brigade, near Rubezhnoe.

ANNA NEWS

Бойцы 7-й бригады ЛНР захватили украинский автомобиль Бойцы 7-й мотострелковой бригады ЛНР захватили украинский бронеавтомобиль "Казак". Это произошло в лесном массиве у города Рубежное, из которого вчера были выбиты подразделения противника. Кроме того, захвачено большое количество...

t.me

A DNR T-72A uparmored with K-1 tiles. Note, this is the first time I see rebel forces using the T-72A, and I suspect these are recent deliveries.

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LNR sniper platoon cleaning weapons.

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Mariupol'.

Rebel forces claim they're gaining ground inside Azovstal'. At this point the plan appears to be fairly clear. Russian and rebel forces will nip at the edges of Azovstal', keeping up pressure on the defenders, and continue heavy shelling. The idea is to wear down the defenders, and force them to burn through their resources.

GREY ZONE

Два дня боролись за участок, позволяющий занять выгодное положение, и сегодня додавили-таки ситуацию - противник побежал.

t.me

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Tank firing towards Azovstal'.

Оперативные сводки

Танк Т-72Б ВС РФ ведёт огонь по позициям ВСУ на "Азовстали" в Мариуполе. @opersvodki

t.me

D-20s shelling Azovstal'. The label says Marines but neither the cannon nor the uniforms match. This is probably DNR 9th Regiment.

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D-20s and Grads firing on Azovstal'. Note we have footage of Grads being used as direct-fire.

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Ship artillery firing on Azovstal'.

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Rebel fighters sweeping the areas around Azovstal'.

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Rebel fighters near Azovstal'.

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Ukrainian MRAP captured, possibly knocked out, in Mariupol'. Note this didn't happen recently, it's from the assault on the city.

Уголок Ситха

Мариуполь. редкостный трофей. украинский бронеавтомобиль КрАЗ-MPV Shrek One, возможно и уничтоженный.

t.me

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Assorted footage, Mariupol'.

Уголок Ситха

Мариуполь

t.me

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DNR 9th Regiment MBTs on the streets of Mariupol'.

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ANNA NEWS

Республиканские танки в Мариуполе, май 2022 года Республиканские танки Т-72Б и Т-64БВ 9-го полка НМ ДНР в Мариуполе и его окрестностях. @anna_news

t.me

Ukrainian land mines getting cleared off the roads around Mariupol'.

Zvezdanews

Кадры подрыва украинских мин, которые ВСУ установили на подъездах к Мариуполю. Глава администрации сообщил, что все дороги, ведущие в город, кроме пути из Мангуша, разминированы.

t.me

Civilians evacuated from Azovstal' have arrived at village Bezymennoe, DNR area. Allegedly ~500 have been evacuated.

Zvezdanews

⚡️Кадры эвакуации мирных жителей Мариуполя из «Азовстали», они уже прибыли в село Безыменное в ДНР

t.me

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DNR mobile observation post, near Azovstal'.

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The West.

Damaged substations near L'vov.

Военный Осведомитель

Опубликовали фотографии уничтоженных 4 мая электроподстанций города Львов. Удар был нанесен высокоточными крылатыми ракетами морского и воздушного базирования.

t.me

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️Уничтоженная 4 мая электроподстанция во Львове⚡️

t.me

There are reports that western sourced body armor was being sold on the side by corrupt officials in L'vov.

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Russia.

It appears Kadyrov has set up a training conveyor in Gudermes for volunteers heading to fight in Ukraine. It appears that these volunteer fighters are being paid by both Kadyrov and by Russian MoD. It's unclear whether these fighters actually enlisting in the Russian military or if Kadyrov has essentially created an unofficial structure. The red striped undershirts seem to indicate affiliation with Russian troops of the interior, but this could be deceptive.

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Russian National Guard returning to Tyumen' after a deployment to Ukraine.

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Russian villages of Zhuravlevka and Nehoteevka have been hit by shelling again.

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Russian security forces arrested extremists in Rostov region. They are allegedly tied to Ukraine.

Readovka

Спецназ ФСБ задержал шестерых проукраинских неонацистов под Ростовом-на-Дону Силовое ведомство опубликовало кадры задержания шестерых неонацистов из группировки «Национал-социализм / Белая сила»*. Задержанные нападали на людей и оскверняли памятники на территории Ростовской области. Все они...

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Misc.

Russian mechanized column in combat, location unclear. The first thing that jumps out at me is their apparently unwillingness to close with their targets. They hang back, hide behind the armor, and throw a lot of firepower down range. The second thing that jumps out is the Soviet flag chevron on one of the soldiers.

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Russian strikes, location and context unclear.

ANNA NEWS

Российская артиллерии уничтожает технику ВСУ Обстрел велся высокоточными боеприпасами "Краснополь". Корректировал огонь расчет беспилотника. @anna_news

t.me

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vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian S-300 battery hit by a Smerch strike. Location unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Эпичный удар "Смерча" по украинской ЗРК С-300 и мощнейшая детонация Тяжелая реактивная система "Смерч" Армии России нанесла удар по району развертывания украинского зенитно-ракетного комплекса С-300. Одна из ракет попадает в пусковую установку комплекса, что приводит к мощному взрыву...

t.me

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Destroyed and knocked out armored vehicles, allegedly Ukrainian. We have what I think is a BMP, literally ripped to pieces. Unclear whose. We have a Ukrainian T-64BV, knocked out. We also have 2 Kozak armored cars, destroyed, Ukrainian. Note the spool of wire on the front of the hood of the first. We've seen both of these destroyed vehicles, in the Izyum Salient, before. It's not however clear whether all this footage is from the same area. We lastly have a downed jet, possibly Su-25, unclear whose.

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Allegedly a downed Bayraktar TB-2 in Ukraine. Location unclear.

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Russian Ka-52 night strike. Note the use of ATGMs instead of the rocket pods.

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Georgian fighters in Ukraine, get hit by something (mortar?) and one of them is wounded. Location unclear.

Херсонский Вестник

⚡️Грузинский наемник бодро вещал что-то на камеру, а потом прилетела мина, и он что-то приуныл. «Ранили!» - продемонстрировал знание русского языка его товарищ⚡️

t.me

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Russian or rebel forces using AGS-17s for indirect fire.

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Russian military train operating somewhere in Ukraine.

Повёрнутые на войне

Привет подписчикам от бронепоезда.

t.me

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Ukrainian soldier with a PRSL-1 American RPG-7 clone.

Dambiev

Видео американского ручного гранатомета PSRL-1 (Precision, Shoulder-fired Rocket Launcher). который находится на вооружении украинских националистов. Производство американской копии советского ручного противотанкового гранатомета РПГ-7 было начато во II квартале 2016 года компанией «AirTronic»...

t.me

Ukrainian National Guard soldier firing an M32 grenade launcher. Location and context unclear.

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There are reports that Ukraine plans to use it's Mistral MANPADS on pickup trucks for mobile air defense.

По африканских заветам.

Посколько ЗРК ВСУ в ходе специальной операции по денацификации экс-Украины выбивают быстро и эффективно, а расчёты ПЗРК не успевают выйти из-под удара, украинцы обратились к опыту стран Африки - установка ПЗРК на джипы - выстрелил и драпать, а там на кого Аллах пошлёт. К тому же ПЗРК "Мистраль"…

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Ukraine's 1st Vinnitsya Rifles Btln from the 79th Brigade reports large casualties. Apparently out of 110 service members, the group on the video is all that's left of the 3rd company which got surrounded and had to fight their way out. The speaker claims they were up against tanks, artillery, and air power, and only got 2 grenades and their rifles to fight with. They also show off poor quality of body armor, falling apart at the seams. They claim they got civilian walkie-talkies as their only radios, and no NVGs or thermals.

He also says when they arrived they weren't given information on where they were or what their mission was, then immediately came under artillery and mortar fires. Other units around them withdrew, and they were left behind.

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Ukrainian fighters declare they don't intend to take any prisoners.

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VDV recon team in Ukraine, I suspect the footage is staged based on some of the shots.

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Ukrainian Su-25, low altitude fly-by. Location and context unclear.

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Russian artillery column in Ukraine, note the air cover.

Повёрнутые на войне

Сопровождение колонн группировки "О" ЦВО.

t.me

Ukraine's 2S22 Bogdana howitzer is apparently heading into combat.

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NATO/EU.

Ukrainian service members traveling westward to train on the M777 howitzers they will be receiving.

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Some of the Polish T-72M1s supplied to Ukraine came upgraded with a new FCS.

Польские Т-72 оказались не так уж и плохи!

gurkhan.blogspot.com

Ukrainian forces have apparently taken delivery of Brimstones, location unclear.

Kotsnews

⚡️⚡️⚡️ВСУ в зоне СВО начали применять ракеты Brimstone. Это британская ракета воздух-поверхность. Модернизированная американская agm-114 hellfire. В условиях отсутствия у Украины самолётов или БПЛА, с которых можно её запускать, была ускорена программа по ее размещению на наземных пусковых...

t.me

Germany won't supply the Gepard AAA for the time being to Ukraine, due to difficulties sourcing ammo.

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[OPSSG]

The Ukrainian Air Force is still in the fight at day 70+

1. The Ukrainian Air Force seems to be concentrating operations around the Odessa and Donetsk regions. In the last 24 hours, unverified sources have mentioned that:

● Ukrainian Mig-29s and Su-27s have seen action in the South.​

​

● Ukrainian Su-25s have seen action in the East.​

Russian sources also claim (unsubstantiated) a destroyed Ukrainian landing boat. The Russian story is that a Ukrainian boat and the helos actually made landfall and were then hit.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523030320504709120

2. Any Russian claim of Ukraine attempting a landing on Snake Island (aka Zmeiniy Island) is motivated by the Russian losses there. It is tactically illogical as Ukraine can’t resupply the island even if they land, as they don’t have a navy anymore — Ukrainians are not that stupid. The volume of Russian misinformation seems to be increasing; but the quality and thought put into these lies seem to be decreasing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523038632323555333

3. @Feanor, this is pure Russian propaganda bullsh!f and even you must know that it is motivated to hide the loss of a Russian landing craft. It’s a good try by their propaganda department — will work on Russian fanboys but not the rest of us here.

 

[Feanor]

The Ukrainian Air Force is still in the fight at day 70+

1. The Ukrainian Air Force seems to be concentrating operations around the Odessa and Donetsk regions. In the last 24 hours, unverified sources have mentioned that:

● Ukrainian Mig-29s and Su-27s have seen action in the South.​

​

● Ukrainian Su-25s have seen action in the East.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523030320504709120

2. Any Russian claim of Ukraine attempting a landing on Snake Island (aka Zmeiniy Island) is motivated by the Russian losses there. It is tactically illogical as Ukraine can’t resupply the island even if they land, as they don’t have a navy anymore — Ukrainians are not that stupid. The volume of Russian misinformation seems to be increasing; but the quality and thought put into these lies seem to be decreasing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523038632323555333

3. @Feanor, this is pure Russian propaganda bullsh!f and even you must know that it is motivated to hide the loss of a Russian landing craft. It’s a good try by their propaganda department — will work on Russian fanboys but not the rest of us here.

Several points. First off, Russia isn't hiding the loss of the landing craft. Nor is it possible to hide, the destruction is on camera. Second off, I'm not sold that Ukraine really can't resupply the island. It's a very small island, and a landing force could in theory be resupplied by air and by small boats. Third off, Russian sources are claiming the destruction of a very specific and rare Ukrainian landing boat, the Stanislav. It should be easy to disprove if untrue. I suggest we keep an eye out for the landing boat in question (one of only two of the type). Fouth-off, it's not clear what the purpose of the landing might have been. It could have been a fast raid intended to capture high value POWs, or destroy something that may have survived the strike. It's really not clear. Fourth off, Russia's claim is that the Mi-8s were landing troops when they went down. Meaning the wreckage should be on the island. That will serve as another data point that would allow us to confirm the facts.

On the subject of Ukrainian stupidity or lack thereof. I don't believe Ukraine is any better at planning these operations then Russia, quite possible much worse. I believe that what we have is a classic proxy war. The intel, much of the recon, and the planning, come from foreign advisors. I suspect that Russia outclasses Ukraine in C4ISR on a scale comparable to how NATO outclasses Russia.

Last but not least, I have not seen any increase in the volume of Russian misniformation. If you have a way to quantify this metric, let me know, I'll be interested to see what you're referring to. My assessment of the incident at Zmeiniy is that Ukraine launched a strike. Russia took significant damage. The rest so far is a claim by Russia substantiated only by the satellite images of Ukrainian vessels apparently moving away from Zmeiniy. I've logged the entire claim chain here because the sources are multiple and somewhat contradictory. Further information will show which if any of Russia's claims are true.

 

[Twain]

Allegedly a downed Bayraktar TB-2 in Ukraine. Location unclear.

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looks like Reissued footage of the bayraktar, It was shot down, On April 27, almost 2 weeks ago.

Number 6 on the list of bayraktars

Look at the 35 second mark of the video and compare to

6522 — Postimages

postlmg.cc

IIRC these pictures have been re-used multiple times now

 

[OPSSG]

Learning from and replying to Feanor

1. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north and northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results.

Several points. First off, Russia isn't hiding the loss of the landing craft. Nor is it possible to hide, the destruction is on camera.

2. Which makes it stupid to try. IMHO. I am sure more information with greater context will eventually emerge.

Second off, I'm not sold that Ukraine really can't resupply the island. It's a very small island, and a landing force could in theory be resupplied by air and by small boats.

3. You do you; and it’s not easy to keep track of who is doing what. Unless shown proof, I don’t usually start with the assumption that any party — Russian or Ukrainian is tactically illogical, all the time. Ukraine maintained a small trip wire force at the start of the war and it no longer serves the same purpose. To risk a landing? I don’t see it.

Third off, Russian sources are claiming the destruction of a very specific and rare Ukrainian landing boat, the Stanislav. It should be easy to disprove if untrue. I suggest we keep an eye out for the landing boat in question (one of only two of the type).

4. If it is a Russian claim, you are better suited to find the proof. Ukrainian sources are not going to be of much help. Let us keep a look out for more context.

Fouth-off, it's not clear what the purpose of the landing might have been. It could have been a fast raid intended to capture high value POWs, or destroy something that may have survived the strike. It's really not clear.

5. That is why I don’t buy the Russian story — it’s tactically unsound.

Fifth off, Russia's claim is that the Mi-8s were landing troops when they went down. Meaning the wreckage should be on the island. That will serve as another data point that would allow us to confirm the facts.

6. Thank you for explaining. Appreciate your regular updates.

On the subject of Ukrainian stupidity or lack thereof. I don't believe Ukraine is any better at planning these operations then Russia, quite possible much worse. I believe that what we have is a classic proxy war. The intel, much of the recon, and the planning, come from foreign advisors. I suspect that Russia outclasses Ukraine in C4ISR on a scale comparable to how NATO outclasses Russia.

7. No doubt.

Last but not least, I have not seen any increase in the volume of Russian misniformation. If you have a way to quantify this metric, let me know, I'll be interested to see what you're referring to. My assessment of the incident at Zmeiniy is that Ukraine launched a strike. Russia took significant damage. The rest so far is a claim by Russia substantiated only by the satellite images of Ukrainian vessels apparently moving away from Zmeiniy. I've logged the entire claim chain here because the sources are multiple and somewhat contradictory. Further information will show which if any of Russia's claims are true.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517094954190921728

8. So you are saying Russian misinformation is normally this high. Got it.

 

[Feanor]

Unless shown proof, I don’t usually assume that any party — Russian or Ukrainian is tactically illogical all the time. Ukraine maintained a small trip wire force at the start of the war and it no longer serves the same purpose. To risk a landing? I don’t see it.

I don't believe it was a tripwire force. I don't believe it was a strictly military force at all. It was a Coast Guard force likely doing regular law enforcement/border patrol duties. Ukraine's Zmeiniy Island station in it's prewar capacity should not necessarily be viewed solely through the prism of conflict with Russia. It likely had more to do with smuggling issues around the Romanian border.

If it is a Russian claim, you are better suited to find the proof. Ukrainian sources are not going to me of much help.

Two things would work here. A picture of the Stanislav still afloat after the date of the alleged distruction would disprove it. A photo of the wreckage would prove it.

So you are saying Russian misinformation is normally this high. Got it.

It's been pretty high this entire conflict. To the point where official statements are mostly best left ignored. The Zmeiniy Island action is pretty major both the part confirmed by footage from the Ukrainian side and the part claimed by Russia. It's also part of an evolving pattern of struggle over the sea lanes around Odessa. This is the only reason I chose to provide the Russian claims in this case. The scale of Russian claims is such that any footage decent footage of the tiny island would pretty much automatically prove or disprove Russia's claims. The debris field from 3 destroyed Mi-8s alone would be huge.

 

[T.C.P]

I don't believe it was a tripwire force. I don't believe it was a strictly military force at all. It was a Coast Guard force likely doing regular law enforcement/border patrol duties. Ukraine's Zmeiniy Island station in it's prewar capacity should not necessarily be viewed solely through the prism of conflict with Russia. It likely had more to do with smuggling issues around the Romanian border.



Two things would work here. A picture of the Stanislav still afloat after the date of the alleged distruction would disprove it. A photo of the wreckage would prove it.



It's been pretty high this entire conflict. To the point where official statements are mostly best left ignored. The Zmeiniy Island action is pretty major both the part confirmed by footage from the Ukrainian side and the part claimed by Russia. It's also part of an evolving pattern of struggle over the sea lanes around Odessa. This is the only reason I chose to provide the Russian claims in this case. The scale of Russian claims is such that any footage decent footage of the tiny island would pretty much automatically prove or disprove Russia's claims. The debris field from 3 destroyed Mi-8s alone would be huge.

This video just got released og an Mi-8 being taken down while unloading/loading soldiers. Ignore the horrible editing and music. The claim on the video is that it is a Russian Mi-8 being struck by Ukraine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ukvv9x

 

[Twain]

Update.

Zmeiniy Island.

We have reports of major combat action at Zmeiniy Island. It appears Ukraine launched a strike using Bayraktars to take out the air defenses on Zmeiniy, Russian sources confirm losses of a Tor, a Strela-10, and a ZU-23-2 (also a small landing ship and a Coast Guard boat). This was followed by an Su-27 bombing strike on the island. After this things get murky. It appears Ukraine attempted a combine aerial and naval landing on the island, but this failed. Russian sources claimed downed Ukrainian jets (1 Su-24, 1 Su-27) and helos (3 Mi-8s), 2 or 3 (sources differ) Bayraktars, and there is footage of Ukrainian vessels heading away from the island, possibly due to an aborted landing. Russian sources also claim (unsubstantiated) a destroyed Ukrainian landing boat. The Russian story is that a Ukrainian boat and the helos actually made landfall and were then hit.

Colonelcassad

У острове Змеиный БПЛА "Байрактар" добился попадания в десантный катер типа "Серна" (61 тонн стандартного водоизмещения").

t.me

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Colonelcassad

МО РФ о попытке атаки острова Змеиный: В районе острова Змеиный сбиты в воздухе: украинский бомбардировщик Су-24, истребитель Су-27, три вертолета Ми-8 с десантом и два беспилотных летательных аппарата "Байрактар-ТБ2"

t.me

Colonelcassad

Также во время неудачной попытки Украины атаковать остров Змеиный был уничтожен украинский десантно-штурмовой катер "Станислав". Фактически, это аналог атакованной "Байрактаром" во время этих событий российской "Серны" - 55 тонн водоизмещения, экипаж 5 человек, перевозит до 25-30 человек...

t.me

Рыбарь

Подробности сегодняшней атаки ВСУ на Змеиный. Остров был использован в качестве приманки: силы ВС РФ с него снялись ещё утром и отошли. Транспортные вертолеты армейской авиации Ми-8 и десантный катер «Станислав» спокойно достигли берегов острова и начали высаживать десант. После этого ВС РФ...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Итак, из того что известно по поводу событий последних дней у острова Змеиный РФ Поврежден/уничтожен 1 пограничный катер Поврежден/уничтожен 1 десантно-штурмовой катер Поврежден ЗРК "Тор" Уничтожена 1 установка "Стрела 10" Уничтожена 1 установка ЗУ-23/2 Потери в людях неизвестны Украина...

t.me

Повёрнутые на войне

Предложка и вопросы: @voenacher_zov_bot По вопросам рекламы: @VoenacherAdvert_bot Сборка дронов @Sborka_upyr_bot @pnv_dozor_bot - Передай информацию об обнаружении скопления инопланетян

t.me

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Военный Осведомитель

На вечернем брифинге МО РФ заявило об отражении попытки украинской атаки острова "Змеиный". Мы нашили спутниковые фото, согласно которым попытка морского десанта на остров Змеиный со стороны ВСУ действительно имела место быть. На одном из снимков от 7 мая в кадр попали два судна ВМСУ, держащих...

t.me

Looks like there may have been a helicopter shot down, a russian helicopter according to this

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523194512138514432

 

[Aerojoe]

Has there been anything further on the sinking or not of the Makarov?

 

[Exonian]

This video just got released og an Mi-8 being taken down while unloading/loading soldiers. Ignore the horrible editing and music. The claim on the video is that it is a Russian Mi-8 being struck by Ukraine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ukvv9x

If Russia was preparing some kind of 9 May Victory parade on Snake Island this might have spoilt their party.

I wonder how much capability Ukraine has of striking other Victory parades? Whether there is a military justification for doing so, and whether the benefits of doing so might be negated by revenge attacks.

 

[kato]

President Zelenskyy restates his invitation to German Chancellor Scholz to visit Ukraine.

The invitation by Zelenskyy was explicitly to both Chancellor Scholz and President Steinmeier, more importantly - i.e. an attempt to calm the waves after the recent Ukrainian public insult to Germany.

Scholz has so far not acknowledged the invitation, and it is highly doubtable (as in: will not happen, see below) that he or Steinmeier would visit Kyev tomorrow to support some odd one-off Ukrainian "counter-celebrations" to Russia-only celebrations. There have been some statements in the direction that due to the Ukrainian kowtow "at some point" Foreign Minister Baerbock could visit Kyev - definitely not tomorrow either though.

Scholz will be holding a speech on TV this evening for May 8th celebrations, i.e. the actual VE-Day, after an online conference with G7 heads of states and heads of governments this afternoon. His calendar for tomorrow has holding a speech at a conference of the German Federation of Unions DGB in the early afternoon (Steinmeier will speak there today or its opening) and - after a press conference - formally receiving President Macron with military honours in the evening for his re-election inaugural visit. President Steinmeier will hold talks with the Belgian Prime Minister de Croo at the presidential seat Bellevue Palace tomorrow in the afternoon.

 

[jref]

Looks like there may have been a helicopter shot down, a russian helicopter according to this

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523194512138514432

On the other hand the Russians (EDIT: Russian leaning groups) are claiming it was a Ukrainian chopper. Maybe some more experienced members here can take an educated guess? Does the blast fit in the profile of the ammunition normally found on Baryaktars?

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523216873956904961

Ukraine is successful in targeting Russian sea and air reinforcements with their TB2. It’s released on their official channel too. The Ukrainian Navy says 2 Raptor-class patrol boats were hit on 7 May 2022, not one. The editing makes it difficult to discern.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523327636876976128

The helicopter is Russian, an Mi-8AMTSh, and a Wagner chat later said the island has been abandoned by Russian forces. At least 8 Russians can be seen on the ground in this video. The helicopter 3 crew and can carry up to 24 passengers, so I think we can safely assume at least 11 Russians were landed before they were hit by the TB2 strike.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523344091861368838

Mike and fiends have done the geo-location of the TB2 and air strikes by the 2 Su-27s. The Mi-8AMTSh helicopter that was shot down by the TB2 on Snake Island is not likely to be Ukrainian.

 

[STURM]

For me the obvious question is where is the Russian counter UAS capability and why hasn't it been deployed with AD systems capable of detecting and engaging low to medium level targets with a low RCS and IR signature? It's not as if the Russians don't have such systems and are not expecting Ukrainian UAS activity in the area.

 

[OPSSG]

It's not as if the Russians don't have such systems and are not expecting Ukrainian UAS activity in the area.

IMHO, classic case of collection plan failure — resulting in Russian failure to process, exploit, analyse and integrate intelligence on Ukrainian courses of action against Russian activities on Snake Island.

This is speculative but as I see it, the fact that they sent a Mi-8AMTSh (that was destroyed), shows that the Russians reacted but their reaction was based on a misunderstanding of ECA B. The Russians knew Snake Island was under attack but they had no asset providing over watch on the island at landing. That I see as a planning failure.

More broadly, in this war, the Russians are failing to win the recce, counter recce fight —which means they fail to understand Ukraine’s most likely and most dangerous courses of action.

 

[Twain]

more confirmation

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523269828324343808

 

[Señor Pomidor]

What is the strategic value of Snake Island for Russian and for Ukraine? Is it worth it to spend resources to attack/defend that small island?

 

[Feanor]

On the other hand the Russians (EDIT: Russian leaning groups) are claiming it was a Ukrainian chopper. Maybe some more experienced members here can take an educated guess? Does the blast fit in the profile of the ammunition normally found on Baryaktars?

It's Russian. It's a helo from the 487th Helo rgt.

Рыбарь

К сожалению, вынуждены констатировать, что видео с уничтожением Ми-8АМТШ с острова Змеиный — это не результат работы ВС РФ. Это уничтоженный ВСУ российский вертолет. Борт был приписан к 487 отдельному вертолетному полку. Погиб в том числе заместитель командира полка по военно-политической...

t.me