The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
They will put up a fight but whether that fight can make a difference against what the Russians will deploy is of course highly doubtful.
The question is whether Russia will reach a point where it feels that it has to launch an invasion and whether compromises made between Russia and the U. S. can prevent a conflict. The Ukranians were acting on the assumption or rather the hope that NATO or U.S. help would be forthcoming but neither the U S. or NATO has indicated a willingness to actually go to war over the Ukraine, unsuprisingly.
A big question would be whether Russia's aim is to create an enlarged buffer zone by occupying just the more pro-russian east or a complete take over of Ukraine ala 1956 Hungary. The first would likely result in a more intense version of the current situation, the latter would be completely different. While NATO probably wouldn't get involved directly there would likely be ongoing covert support. Occupying a nation of 44 million would not be easy.
A Russian court inadvertently revealed that Russia has a significant number of soldiers in Easter Ukraine. Russia says this information was an "error".
If Russia has 26,000 in Eastern Ukraine I would assume the US would know about it?
How a court case may have inadvertently revealed that Russia has troops in Ukraine | The Independent
If Russia has 26,000 in Eastern Ukraine I would assume the US would know about it?
Isn't that the LNR - DNR Armed Forces? We have a thread on that. This may be new material evidence that they are Russian troops, or at least financed/supported by Russia, but in general this is old news. A subtle distinction is typically made when talking about Russian troops in Ukraine. The LNR - DNR Armed Forces are there all the time. Reinforcements could enter from Russia in times of flare ups.
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
At this stage Moscow might as well demand that every year leaders from European states make a journey to Russia to show their fealty to Putin.
The demands are both unacceptable and not feasible. NATO is a defence pact between nation states, not a supra-national organisation that has authority over them. Countries change foreign policy over the years. Biden can say that he has no current intention to support Ukrainian membership of NATO, but he cannot bind his successor.
Then there's the fact that Russia annexed Crimea through force of arms and has sought to by default annex part of Eastern Ukraine. In those circumstances Russia making demands about what everyone else will do, without making any concessions itself, is a joke.
I have to wonder, are these impossible to meet demands a way to justify an invasion of Ukraine, because the Kremlin knows they won't be agreed to?
I wonder the same thing, especially viewed in the context of public opinion in Russia. But some believe the Minks agreements, if followed by Ukraine, may give Russia a degree of control over Ukraine, that might let Russia make sure their requirements are met without requiring the West to act.
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If a deal is reached; both sides will have to make concessions. Throughout the Cold War and in more recent times the Soviets/Russians have displayed a willingness to make concessions when necessary.
I think the Russians believe that if certain compromises are made by both sides; a deal can be reached. IMO what Russia is asking for; with regards to NATO expansion rigt to its borders; is not outrageous or unacceptable. Sure Russia has to scale down on what it's doing in the Ukraine but NATO also has to realise that the Ukraine joining NATO or NATO placing certain types of weaponry is a ''red line'' Russia will never accept.
If it was forced to invade my guess is it would aim for a buffer zone which would include a land corridor to the Crimea. An invasion to the banks of the Dnieper would be a much larger and more politically dicey undertaking ; plus Russia would have a large hostile population to contend with.
It would prefer not to but if Russia had to go to war with NATO over the Ukraine; that's a price its willing to pay to safeguard its strategic interests. NATO on the other hand has made clear - no surprises - that it will not go to war over the Ukraine but will resort to other forms of measures.
Whether Russia's demand is unacceptable or not, depends on who you ask. Many people in Ukraine may find this demand to be unacceptable, in particular in light of Russia's annexation of Crimea, as well as the invasion of Eastern Ukraine.
NATO require that the new countries joining NATO are democratic countries willing to join NATO.
20160627_1607-factsheet-enlargement-eng.pdf (nato.int)
I personally find the behavior of Russia to be both outrageous and unacceptable, and I fully understand those in Ukraine who want to join NATO. I bet that also many of those in Ukraine who are skeptical to joining NATO, would nevertheless prefer that this should be their choice, and not something imposed on them by Russia, or anybody else for that matter.
Although I strongly disagree with Russia's actions and demands in this context, I also "understand" why they are doing this. Clearly they want to rebuild their empire. NATO offers a way for Eastern European countries that used to be part of the Russian empire to resist becoming part of the Russian empire once more. Russian "concerns" (or, to use a word Russia often prefers: "hysteria") about NATO should not influence the decision making process of NATO and prospective members.
In reality, of course it all comes down to realpolitik. Ukraine is not member of NATO and even "best case" would not be eligible to become a member in the foreseeable future. NATO also does not want to get directly involved in a war between Russia and Ukraine. So NATO probably have to make some concessions, at least in the short to medium term.
I hope that Sweden and Finland will join NATO, I think it would strengthen both NATO and Sweden/Finland, and it would also give Russia something else to think about. Right now Russia seems obsessed with Ukraine.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Russia wants concessions made by NATO now, in order to progress to the next stage of negotiations.
Besides, what concessions is Russia going to offer? It obviously isn't going to hand Crimea back, and withdrawing support for the insurgents in East Ukraine would damage Putin's standing amongst the ultra-nationalists that make up much of his domestic support. The sort of "concession" Putin would offer would be not going to war, which has no value because he could change his mind a day later (and after NATO had mostly pulled out of the Baltics, one of his key demands).
tequilashooter
New Member
If NATO is unwilling to assist Turkey in their incursions to Syria than I doubt they will be as supportive to Ukraine about it. What benefits is their from Ukraine other than me seeing it is a bigger debt country to keep than Greece.
This is a major problem and is something which has to be negotiated. Remains to be seen if Russia intends on lifting or being flexible on any preconditions.
We'll have to see if talks get serious; the fact remains that for talks to succeed there have to be concessions and compromises. If NATO wants trust and guarantees what guarantee does Russian have that in a few years time; NATO won't invite the Ukraine into NATO - works both ways. On the Russian side the concessions which might be asked from it is to not mass troops on the common border; not to provide the separatists with certain types of weapons, no attempts at overthrowing the government; etc. like I said; it's not as f the Soviets/Russians do not have a history of making concessions and compromises when needed.
If we 're going to go on the basis that one side doesn't have much concessions to make or that it might renegade on any agreements before talks have even begun in earnest; then there is no point for diplomacy is there? Must as well just stay the present course and see where it leads to ....
Well the Ukraine has long been an area of strategic importance for the Soviets/Russians. It's on their doorstep and is more strategically placed compared to the Baltics. There is a talk on YouTube by a Russian analyst who mentions that despite all the talk in the West about the Baltics being a 'flashpoint' Russian planners see a much higher likelihood of troubles over the Ukraine and Belarus.
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There's a big difference between Turkey's incursions into Syria and Ukraine’s problems with Russia. Turkey is operating uninvited in a foreign country? The Ukraine has had part of its territory illegally annexed by Russia (Crimea)and Russian military forces illegally operating and fomenting rebellion against the lawful government in Kiev, in eastern parts of the Ukraine. There's really no comparison.
cdxbow
Well-Known Member
This isn't a realistic offer. I suspect it was designed to fail. I think it's only purpose is to enable Russia to run a narrative to say we wanted peace and NATO rejected it prior to getting up to more 'funny buggers' in the Ukraine.
Maybe but it could also be a Russian way of measuring the mood of the West/NATO by intentionally adopting a hardline stance which appears uncompromising; to see what reaction it will get. One thing's for sure; both sides will want to avoid ;looking weak, both sides will press for their demands and both would prefer for things not to worsen. The Russians are realists; they know fully well that some demands will never be met; just like how West/NATO realises that some Russian demands are unavoidable if consensus is to be reached.
Russia demands Ukraine, ex-Soviet nations be barred from NATO
Moscow sets out tough terms in draft security documents submitted to the US and its allies.
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cdxbow
Well-Known Member
Perhaps, but it is unrealistic and can't possibly form a basis for negotiations. It is more of a threat.Maybe but it could also be a Russian way of measuring the mood of the West/NATO by intentionally adopting a hardline stance which appears uncompromising; to see what reaction it will get. One thing's for sure; both sides will want to avoid ;looking weak, both sides will press for their demands and both would prefer for things not to worsen. The Russians are realists; they know fully well that some demands will never be met; just like how West/NATO realises that some Russian demands are unavoidable if consensus is to be reached.
Russia demands Ukraine, ex-Soviet nations be barred from NATO
Moscow sets out tough terms in draft security documents submitted to the US and its allies.www.aljazeera.com
I see it as a demand or a precondition; not a threat per see. It was probably made for a reason and doesn't necessarily mean the Russians will not budge. Common for countries/companies to make certain demands or place certain pre conditions before or at the start of negotiations to see how far they can push things and to gauge the mood of the other side.
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cdxbow
Well-Known Member
There are opening gambits, sure, but 'gives us back hegemony over eastern Europe and we won't invade the Ukraine' is not really any sort of starting point for discussions. It's got the flavour of Nazi territorial demands and I'm afraid that did not end well.
tequilashooter
New Member
Russia doesn't need a war. For what?
It seems to be the Ukraine and NATO that need a war for some reason. They want something, they're not getting it so they start to warn and promise some big war or whatever. In Russia there's absolutely nothing said about this. Its going to be hard convincing the poles to get involved because I take it that what happened in volyhynia and east galacia is much worse than what happened in katyn, especially seeing the ukrainian armed feeling proud throwing nazi salutes with images of Bandera for some reason. Its pretty hard to have the will to fight a country that was willing to commit the same kind of ethnic cleansing they were going to do with Crimea because of the majority of people there seem to have a Russian background.
It seems to be the Ukraine and NATO that need a war for some reason. They want something, they're not getting it so they start to warn and promise some big war or whatever. In Russia there's absolutely nothing said about this. Its going to be hard convincing the poles to get involved because I take it that what happened in volyhynia and east galacia is much worse than what happened in katyn, especially seeing the ukrainian armed feeling proud throwing nazi salutes with images of Bandera for some reason. Its pretty hard to have the will to fight a country that was willing to commit the same kind of ethnic cleansing they were going to do with Crimea because of the majority of people there seem to have a Russian background.
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