The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

This is an interesting idea, but I do think it's unlikely. I doubt any adviser in the White House or any western govt. would agree to a plan that could risk war in Europe simply to back a Ukrainian offensive against the rebels. Western powers have little to gain in this crisis IMO, but much to lose. While the US administration is having it's share of difficulties at home (poor polling, failure of build back better etc.) I cannot imagine a scenario where they would think a crises like this could turn things around - especially after Afghanistan. The risk / reward would be far greater than any western govt would accept.

That's just it though, the same calculation would apply for Russia, and Russia's strategy for the past 7 years (ever since Minsk 2.0 and the end of the winter offensive) has been to try to turn this into a frozen conflict, and to remove this from center stage of political relations between Russia and Europe. So far every Russian massed troop concentration since the end of the 2015 offensive has been a response to preparations by Ukraine. And you can usually trace these preparations because Ukrainian recon teams start taking losses, sappers get hit trying to clear minefields, and troop echelons are seen moving towards the Donbass. But this time we're not seeing these indicators. It looks odd.

In my opinion, if this is indeed an offensive preparation by Russia, then the west has the timeline wrong (or maybe right behind closed doors but is exaggerating the pace of the preparations for public consumption). And if Russia is planning an offensive, I think this would be a major strategic blunder. I don't see what Russia would have to gain. Even if they only go to the administrative border for the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, where the population is likelier to be friendly, it still doesn't solve anything. Preventing NATO membership through an unresolved conflict works just fine within existing areas. Pummeling the Ukrainian military doesn't solve anything either, since the west is perfectly capable of supplying quantities of older hardware to replace losses in the medium term. And diplomatically it would be catastrophic for Russian plans to activate North Stream 2.

Is this a gift from the UK to Ukraina or is this more a speed up procurement?

According to some unreliable sources on the internet, Ukraine will get 2000 pieces, while other say 1000. Ukraina needs quite a large budget for 2000 NLAW missiles.

British anti-tank weapons sent to defend Ukraine from Russia

Britain has sent an anti-tank missile system to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from a Russian invasion. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said last

www.thetimes.co.uk

I would assume it's a gift. Ukraine has a hard time providing sufficient boots and body armor.

 

[Rob c]

My greatest fear in this stand off is that some oversized ego's in the leadership from either side will push to the point were they cannot back down for fear of losing face due to demands that will not be met by the opposition. Situations like this have been resolve in the past by both sides having the ability to tell their population that they are the winners. For example the Cuban missile crisis were Kennedy got the missiles remove from Cuba and Khrushchev got the missiles removed from Turkey.
Is there a possible deal like this available in this situation so as both sides appear to get what they want, without appearing to be giving in to the opposition and therefore maintaining face (ego)

 

[John Fedup]

My greatest fear in this stand off is that some oversized ego's in the leadership from either side will push to the point were they cannot back down for fear of losing face due to demands that will not be met by the opposition. Situations like this have been resolve in the past by both sides having the ability to tell their population that they are the winners. For example the Cuban missile crisis were Kennedy got the missiles remove from Cuba and Khrushchev got the missiles removed from Turkey.
Is there a possible deal like this available in this situation so as both sides appear to get what they want, without appearing to be giving in to the opposition and therefore maintaining face (ego)

The Internet noise would make any appearance of success on a deal difficult on the US side at least. What I fear is China’s Xi seeing any conflict in the Ukraine as an opportunity to invade Taiwan. The reverse is also true, Putin might see opportunity in attacking Ukraine should Xi move against Taiwan. Regardless, huge risks for all players.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Ukraine is not Russian, it is distinctly Ukrainian

The counter of this claim is solely for Russia's internal audience. Russia has no interest in occupying and annexing the entire Ukraine because it would be a hostile population.

Actually I don't even really understand why they would risk an invasion into Ukraine. They clearly have achieved a non-NATO Ukraine, legally, and are now only pushing for a faster Ukrainian unification with the west.

 

[Feanor]

The counter of this claim is solely for Russia's internal audience. Russia has no interest in occupying and annexing the entire Ukraine because it would be a hostile population.

Actually I don't even really understand why they would risk an invasion into Ukraine. They clearly have achieved a non-NATO Ukraine, legally, and are now only pushing for a faster Ukrainian unification with the west.

Which raises the question, are they actually pushing? I'm really of two minds about this. Consider the delivery of NLAWs. They can't possible change the outcome for a full-fledged invasion. You can't shoot down cruise missiles, control the skies, or prevent Russian ELINT/EW from wrecking Ukrainian C4I. But it can significantly increase the casualties of Russian BTGr in a scenario like the summer of '14, or winter of '14-'15. Which can only be a response to a Ukrainian assault on the rebels, where Russia wants to maintain the level of hostilities below full state-on-state action. This speaks heavily in favor of the scenario of a Ukrainian offensive. And there are (thoroughly unsubstantiated) claims from Russia that Ukraine has increased their presence at the front line to 125 000 troops. Half of the nominal and more then half of the actual strength of Ukraine's armed forces.

On the other hand - see my next post.

 

[Feanor]

Update time.

Footage of Russian troop movements inside Belarus show Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, specifically the town of Yel'sk in southern Belarus.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian troop movement shows Russian units headed for the Ukrainian border around Voronezh.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian BMP-3s that have arrived in Belarus for training exercises have their tactical numbers painted over.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russian artillery unit arrives in Belarus.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian Iskanders in Belarus.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Troop movements in Slutsk and Gomel', in Belarus.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Near Smolensk, more equipment headed to Belarus was spotted.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The two S-400 btlns on training exercises in Belarus came from East MD.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Iskander-M systems headed westward.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Fresh satellite images of Russian equipment in the town of Klimovo, 13 kms from Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Another troop train, this one in Ryazan' region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Another Russian troop train, location unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russian National Guard unit moving in Kerch (eastern Crimea).

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Note the quantity of footage, and their geography. This is the kind of evidence that was notably absent two months ago when the media hysteria around alleged Russian invasion plans first started. Yet only now are we seeing this activity. For starters this discredits the idea that Russia managed to maintain secrecy and concentrate the troops in silence. If that were the case we wouldn't have this mass of footage now (and please note this is only a sample from one convenient source, with a little effort there's plenty more). Russia OpSec is still not good enough to hide these kinds of troop concentrations. Second of all we now definitely have masses of Russian troops moving westward. Some, quite a lot, are headed into Belarus. Some, how many is unclear but it's more then a few units, are headed towards Ukraine.

The US has given the Baltic states permission to transfer some US-sourced weapons to Ukraine. Allegedly they will be Javelins and some Stingers.

США разрешили Прибалтике передать Украине часть вооружений американского производства

Украина в ближайшее время получит военную помощь от стран Прибалтики, США выдали Таллину, Риге и Вильнюсу разрешение на передачу части вооружений американского производства Киеву. Об этом сообщает пресса США со ссылкой на источник в госдепартаменте. Госдеп США выдал разрешение Эстонии, Латвии и

topwar.ru

We also see movement of Ukrainian troops towards the Donbass.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian troops moving in Odessa region, destination unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Buks moving towards the Belarussian border.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A look at Ukrainian front-line positions.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A US RC-135W flies along the front line in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

And awkwardly enough, we see what appear to be US troops moving towards the border in Poland.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A look at NATO and Swedish recon flights along the Russian frontier.

Log in

Your life is the best story! Just start your blog today!

diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

In Rostov region the 11th engineers bde had exercises. Note that this is exactly the sort of ambiguity I'm talking about. Rostov is near Ukraine, but there's no clear evidence whether these are routing exercises or cover for something else. Note that this comes as the engineers corps of Russia celebrate their 321st anniversary, and media coverage has been increased for those types of units. Center MD, and the Northern Fleet recently held similar, widely publicized, exercises.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"Three Project 775 Ropucha class amphibious warfare ships from the Russian Navy's Baltic Fleet were spotted leaving the region on Monday. Two more Ropuchas and a Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship, all from the service's Northern Fleet, followed after them the next day.

From the Mediterranean, this amphibious flotilla could potentially swing north into the Black Sea."|

The press suggests ofcourse that this group of ships can steam towards the Black Sea and join the Russian invasion force. But Russia often transfer ships for routine rotations, maintenance or for exercises. But if these ships continue to go northwards, will this the first time that Project 11711 LPDs are sailing to the Black Sea?

Russia's Landing Ships Are Headed To The Mediterranean To Join A Growing Armada (Updated)

The six Russian amphibious ships, a cruiser, and a destroyer are converging on the Mediterranean, where a U.S. carrier strike group is also sailing.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Feanor]

|"Three Project 775 Ropucha class amphibious warfare ships from the Russian Navy's Baltic Fleet were spotted leaving the region on Monday. Two more Ropuchas and a Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship, all from the service's Northern Fleet, followed after them the next day.

From the Mediterranean, this amphibious flotilla could potentially swing north into the Black Sea."|

The press suggests ofcourse that this group of ships can steam towards the Black Sea and join the Russian invasion force. But Russia often transfer ships for routine rotations, maintenance or for exercises. But if these ships continue to go northwards, will this the first time that Project 11711 LPDs are sailing to the Black Sea?

Russia's Landing Ships Are Headed To The Mediterranean To Join A Growing Armada (Updated)

The six Russian amphibious ships, a cruiser, and a destroyer are converging on the Mediterranean, where a U.S. carrier strike group is also sailing.

www.thedrive.com

I suspect this isn't worth anything until they actually head in that direction. It's another one of those actions that could mean something or nothing.

 

[MilitaryIndustrialComplex]

NATO member states are supplying ATGMs like NLAW and Javelin to Ukraine. These ATGMs might help Ukraine to repel a Russian mechanized unit, however what Ukraine needs is air defense systems, something like the Rheinmetall Oerlikon Skyshield and PAC-3. Russia has amassed a massive rocket artillery force on the border and if missiles like Iskander has to be intercepted then Ukraine will need effective SAM systems.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

NATO member states are supplying ATGMs like NLAW and Javelin to Ukraine. These ATGMs might help Ukraine to repel a Russian mechanized unit, however what Ukraine needs is air defense systems, something like the Rheinmetall Oerlikon Skyshield and PAC-3. Russia has amassed a massive rocket artillery force on the border and if missiles like Iskander has to be intercepted then Ukraine will need effective SAM systems.

An effective IAMD would take so much time, money, and effort, that it would be pointless to supply Ukraine with any form of air defense other than Stingers and the like.

@Feanor these systems (ATGMs) will allow Ukraine to deter Russia not by giving Ukraine a chance to win, but by showing Russia might enter a slugfest and endanger its troops for too long, in an expensive battle that might leave it vulnerable a la Yemen.

 

[the concerned]

Does anyone on here know does Ukraine still have chemical or biological munitions in its inventory. Also I know it gave up its strategic nuclear arsenal but what about tactical weapons.

 

[Steinmetz]

NLAW and Javelins along with radio equipment, counter battery radar, basic logistical equipment, ect. should be about the extent they send. I sincerely doubt NATO countries would poke the bear that much. It just justifies Russia's position more in that case.

Does anyone on here know does Ukraine still have chemical or biological munitions in its inventory. Also I know it gave up its strategic nuclear arsenal but what about tactical weapons.

They possess neither, strictly conventional.

 

[Atunga]

Which raises the question, are they actually pushing? I'm really of two minds about this. Consider the delivery of NLAWs. They can't possible change the outcome for a full-fledged invasion. You can't shoot down cruise missiles, control the skies, or prevent Russian ELINT/EW from wrecking Ukrainian C4I. But it can significantly increase the casualties of Russian BTGr in a scenario like the summer of '14, or winter of '14-'15. Which can only be a response to a Ukrainian assault on the rebels, where Russia wants to maintain the level of hostilities below full state-on-state action. This speaks heavily in favor of the scenario of a Ukrainian offensive. And there are (thoroughly unsubstantiated) claims from Russia that Ukraine has increased their presence at the front line to 125 000 troops. Half of the nominal and more then half of the actual strength of Ukraine's armed forces.

On the other hand - see my next post.

Do you think Russia is sending troops to the border only because they can anticipate an imminent Ukrainian attack on the donbass? Is Russia responding to Ukrainian actions on the ground and using troop movements to scare them off? after 2014-15 events, will Ukraine lunch an attack on donbass without the blessings of the US?

 

[Feanor]

Do you think Russia is sending troops to the border only because they can anticipate an imminent Ukrainian attack on the donbass? Is Russia responding to Ukrainian actions on the ground and using troop movements to scare them off? after 2014-15 events, will Ukraine lunch an attack on donbass without the blessings of the US?

This has been the case in the past, the last time was as recently as spring of 2021. Like I said above, I'm honestly not sure this time.

EDIT: Here's another possible scenario. The Russian Duma is currently discussing a proposal to recognize the LDNR as countries. If agreement is reached with the US, the proposal dies. If not, Russia recognizes their independence. Doesn't launch an invasion of Ukraine but instead openly states that any invasion of these newly minted nation-states triggers a full and official Russian response. Thus Lavrov is telling the truth, there's no invasion of Ukraine planned, but the move is the kind that could very well trigger a Ukrainian response.

 

[Ananda]

Thus Lavrov is telling the truth, there's no invasion of Ukraine planned, but the move is the kind that could very well trigger a Ukrainian response.

I do believe that if talk with US fail, that's what will happen. Recognition of Donbass for an Independence nation or seperate entity from Ukraine, is what more or less similar thing that NATO done with Kosovo against Russian friendly Serbia. So it is kind of tit for tat move.

Russia then can have more 'legitimate' reason to move against Ukraine, if Ukrainian decided to move against Donbas. Further move also can happen if there're other region in east that decided to joint independence LDNR.

After all that's what seems Russia aim on Ukraine. If they can not pacified Ukrainian Maiden movement that pro west and hostile to Russia, then split Ukraine between Pro West in West and Pro Russia in East.

I don't think Putin want to invade Ukraine as West claim, and potentialy commited Russian Troops in long term enthrenched war in West Ukraine. Seperate Ukraine from West with East already sufficient enough to form Russian friendly Eatern Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine Industrial Miltary complex are in the East. So Russian hostile Western Ukraine will not going put much threat to either Russia or Russian Friendly Eastern Ukraine.

The question now what will be this Russian Friendly Eastern Ukraine going to be ? Will other eastern teritories want to joint independence LDNR ? If there's enough movement in the teritories in the coast of Azov sea, that decided to joint LDNR, will Russia decided to intervene Military to 'help' them seperating from Western Ukraine ?

 

[Arji]

This has been the case in the past, the last time was as recently as spring of 2021. Like I said above, I'm honestly not sure this time.

EDIT: Here's another possible scenario. The Russian Duma is currently discussing a proposal to recognize the LDNR as countries. If agreement is reached with the US, the proposal dies. If not, Russia recognizes their independence. Doesn't launch an invasion of Ukraine but instead openly states that any invasion of these newly minted nation-states triggers a full and official Russian response. Thus Lavrov is telling the truth, there's no invasion of Ukraine planned, but the move is the kind that could very well trigger a Ukrainian response.

I googled LDNR, but it seems encompasses quite a small territory near the border (unless wikipedia is mistaken). I'm not sure it fits to act as a buffer, probably means that if this tactics work, Russia will probably try doing it again in the future. Does LDNR have a governing body currently? I assume it was still De Facto Governed by Ukrainian officials.

 

[Feanor]

I googled LDNR, but it seems encompasses quite a small territory near the border (unless wikipedia is mistaken). I'm not sure it fits to act as a buffer, probably means that if this tactics work, Russia will probably try doing it again in the future. Does LDNR have a governing body currently? I assume it was still De Facto Governed by Ukrainian officials.

Technically there are two entities. The Lugansk People's Republic, and the Donestk People's Republic. Both have fully functioning rebel governments, law enforcement, police, etc. They also have functioning education systems, and have been working on re-orientating their infrastructure towards Russia. For all practical intents and purposes these are small and mostly functioning countries, firmly under Russia's control. One of the biggest points of contention is elections in the rebel held areas. Ironically enough Ukraine and the West are the ones against it, since it would create a legitimate local government, and one firmly opposed to Ukraine.

Their official websites, for reference.

https://glava-lnr.info/sobytiya/luganskaya-narodnaya-respublika

DPR Official Website - HOME PAGE

dnronline.su

And the wikipedia entries. It's not a great source, but it can be a decent starting point.

Luhansk People's Republic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Donetsk People's Republic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

That's just it though, the same calculation would apply for Russia, and Russia's strategy for the past 7 years (ever since Minsk 2.0 and the end of the winter offensive) has been to try to turn this into a frozen conflict, and to remove this from center stage of political relations between Russia and Europe. So far every Russian massed troop concentration since the end of the 2015 offensive has been a response to preparations by Ukraine. And you can usually trace these preparations because Ukrainian recon teams start taking losses, sappers get hit trying to clear minefields, and troop echelons are seen moving towards the Donbass. But this time we're not seeing these indicators. It looks odd.

In my opinion, if this is indeed an offensive preparation by Russia, then the west has the timeline wrong (or maybe right behind closed doors but is exaggerating the pace of the preparations for public consumption). And if Russia is planning an offensive, I think this would be a major strategic blunder. I don't see what Russia would have to gain. Even if they only go to the administrative border for the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, where the population is likelier to be friendly, it still doesn't solve anything. Preventing NATO membership through an unresolved conflict works just fine within existing areas. Pummeling the Ukrainian military doesn't solve anything either, since the west is perfectly capable of supplying quantities of older hardware to replace losses in the medium term. And diplomatically it would be catastrophic for Russian plans to activate North Stream 2.



I would assume it's a gift. Ukraine has a hard time providing sufficient boots and body armor.

Amazing...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485323127617896449

C-17 Loads Of Anti-Tank Missiles Arrive In Ukraine Courtesy Of The United Kingdom

The shipments came with claims of controversy after the C-17s appeared to avoid German airspace, but both countries say this was not the case.

www.thedrive.com

Other countries have to pay millions for much smaller amounts of NLAW and Javelin missiles, but Ukraine get it all for free.

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I watched this on Netflix today and quite frankly as a human we need to give those poor people all the help we can

 

[Atunga]

Amazing...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485323127617896449

C-17 Loads Of Anti-Tank Missiles Arrive In Ukraine Courtesy Of The United Kingdom

The shipments came with claims of controversy after the C-17s appeared to avoid German airspace, but both countries say this was not the case.

www.thedrive.com

Other countries have to pay millions for much smaller amounts of NLAW and Javelin missiles, but Ukraine get it all for free.

The more I look at these weapons systems being supplied to Ukraine, the more it seems like the west is sending Ukraine on a suicide mission, except there are other weapons being supplied that we don't know about, in a real Russian invasion, these NLAW and Javelin missiles will do absolutely nothing to stop the Russians, the Russians have been doing target practice in Syria for a long time now and the West knows well about it, if Russia is intent on invading Ukraine they will most likely use kalibre's and iskanders to soften targets inside Ukraine before the tanks begin to roll in. The Russians will be able to see what's happening on the ground almost in real time while the Ukraine will have to rely on intelligence coming from the west. Does anyone think the West or Ukraine have plans on how to stop kalibre's and iskanders from flying in?