And all this is happening without a shot being fired, if or when missiles begin to fly, more NATO countries will take Croatia's President's stance. This brings into question who is running Ukrainian foreign policies, why can't Zelensky go to Moscow and have a sit down with putin? It will do every one involve in this crisis goodCrotia's president just fired off that Crotia refuses to participate in a Russo-Ukrainian war, and will recall any of their soldiers in joint NATO units if there is any risk of them being involved. He also called the Euromaidan a coup d'etat, and that Ukraine doesn't belong in NATO. Curiously enough he also blames the current crisis on US domestic politics. This is the second major figure in the EU/NATO that's spoken out against the US position in the crisis (the last was a German Admiral that was promptly forced to resign).
It will be curious to see if the US manages to herd cats and get all of NATO/EU aligned on this or not. Realistically, from a standpoint of national interests, much of Europe would be better off taking the Croatian stance, but I suspect many conversations will take place behind the scenes to avoid this.
Croatian President Says Ukraine Should Not be Part of NATO - Total Croatia
Addressing the press after he visited the Kraš confectionery company, Milanović said that Croatia would in no way be involved in the crisis if it escalated and that there would be no Croatian soldiers in that scenario. Ukraine does not belong in NATO, the Croatian head of state said, adding that...www.total-croatia-news.com
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
The demands of Russia are known and they will lead Ukraine to the direction opposite to its interests, meaning there is not so much difference between accepting them and having LDNR in government or waiting for military intervention of Russia (that might not happen), as the result will be +- same in these cases.
Moreover, such move will definitely decrease the rating of Zelensky much more (and it is decreasing now due to corona restrictions and lots of unfulfilled promises / failed reforms) and will probably start the protests.
Ukraine is not Afghanistan. The consequences of walking away and let Europe sort its own “stuff" is on a different levels.
I read the folllowing article from CSIS; how realistic/plausible are the 6 scenarios?
Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine
If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to invade Ukraine through northern, central, and southern routes, raising critical questions for the United States and its NATO allies according to analysis by the CSIS International Security Program.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #164
The sheer number of proposed invasion plans from various media outlets is too great to keep track off, and they're too vague to generally bother with. I think the article is highly optimistic of the ability and desire of the Ukrainian government to fight this war if it becomes a real war against a determined opponent. I strongly suspect that if this is an open invasion, with air power and missile strikes, there's only one possible outcome to the conventional fight.Ukraine is not Afghanistan. The consequences of walking away and let Europe sort its own “stuff" is on a different levels.
I read the folllowing article from CSIS; how realistic/plausible are the 6 scenarios?
Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine
If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to invade Ukraine through northern, central, and southern routes, raising critical questions for the United States and its NATO allies according to analysis by the CSIS International Security Program.www.csis.org
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
People in glass houses should not throw rocks.
I think someone should remind him that Croatia largely caused the Balkans Crisis by its unilateral declaration of independence and that it has been NATO, not the UN, that has been the most effective force at bringing peace to the region. Given how recently Croatia joined NATO (and the EU), I think he should be very careful when it comes to trying to restrict the scope of the alliance's objectives. Otherwise Croatia could be accused of trying to raise the ladder after itself.
Croatia is a parliamentary democracy so he doesn't make the call. If he tried to recall soldiers deployed by the Croatian government he would create a constitutional crisis and could be impeached.
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Well, this was from CSIS which I thought would have some weight. Is the morale or desire of the Ukranian ground forces to defend their territory overrated?
Steinmetz
Active Member
CSIS has some weight, but there are ton of factors we just don't know about. Honestly, we won't have a clear picture of how things will truly unfold till during and after such a conflict takes place. Will any Ukrainian units defect? How many will lay down their arms once encircled? How fast and effective can Russia conduct modern maneuver warfare? So many what if's and rhetorical questions we can ask ourselves. Russia will obviously win. I think their only real problem will be economically holding onto large swathes of captured territory. Morale can be a fickle thing, especially if it's such a shock and awe attack. I don't think Ukraine's territory, especially Eastern/Southern Ukraine will be conducive to conduct partisan warfare.
Michael Kofman tends to have a balanced and realistic analysis on such matters.
The Russian Military Threat to Ukraine: How Serious?
A German naval commander already lost his job for talking his mind, this guy is the Croatian president and chief in charge of the Croatian armed forces and he's well within his right to redraw his army if he sees reason to. He is clearly against the lies the West is spreading about Ukraine. Lots of Europeans know the truth on how Ukraine got here, this just shows how divided NATO is on Ukraine
Ukraine is not a democracy and is highly corrupt, in event of a Russian attack, it won't be hard for Russia to find puppets that will be willing to work for her, Russia will succeed to pit Ukrainian against Ukrainian. If Russia turned battle hardend Chechnya against each other, it won't have a problem doing the same in Ukraine. I think the west has overrated Ukranian resolve to fight the Russians
Be very careful about flinging around accusations about the west spreading lies. We know for certain that Putin is very partial to being highly economical with the truth.
We can say exactly the same about Russia. In fact it's a kleptocracy so people who live in glass houses. One thing, the Ukraine doesn't send assassinate it's dissidents on foreign soil using polonium and nerve agents, unlike Russia. Next, unlike Ukraine, in Chechnya Russia wasn't facing armoured forces, artillery and modern anti tank guided missiles.
Finally there are rules in this Forum and one is no politics unless it directly related to defence procurement and / or policy. Another is that any claims have to be supported by links to verifiable reputable sources. You have made unsubstantiated political claims that have broken both rules. Therefore you either provide verifiable reputable sources for your claims or cease making them. RT, Pravda, Xinhua, Global Times, Fox News, and Sky News Australia are not regarded as reliable sources.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Just to add in here. If you call Western sources (media and politicians) lies on Ukraine, then what about Russia? Perhaps there's bias on some western media, however they are much more independent then Russian one. This's not just an opinion, but fact that Western media is not control by one faction influence. Can't be said on most Russian media at this moment.
There's intentions by Russia Political power to carve Ukraine against Pro West and Pro Russian. However saying that it will be easy, clearly overstate Russia abilities. Please differ intentions and actual capabilities to do that.
Perhaps you also underated Ukraine will to fight? If Ukraine is easy too push over, then why Donbas front situation now in stalemate ? Even with Russian help ?
My point is everything is in fluid situation right now, just don't underestimate anyone involved yet.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
A large part of the Ukrainian troops surrendered them selves or even join the Russian Black Sea fleet because of lack of support from the central government in Kiev that time, but the situation with regard to Donbas can be different now.
So yes, we should be careful with predictions.
Pentagon reveals info on $200M military aid to Ukraine, including more Javelins
President Joe Biden authorized a $200 million package of additional military assistance for Ukraine in recent weeks, the Pentagon confirmed.
www.defensenews.com
300 Javelins for free...thats almost as much as the stock of Indonesia and Saudi-Arabia combined.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Indeed, because it is not the role of the military to publicly contradict the foreign policy objectives of the civilian government at a time of international crisis. If he had misgivings he only had the right to do so in private to the government or resign and give his views afterwards as a private citizen.
As I explained, he does not have the right.
In parliamentary democracies, the Prime Minister is leader of the country and gives orders to the military. In Croatia the President is a figurehead, like a constitutional monarch. He might in theory have certain powers, but using them to frustrate lawful actions of the government would be an abuse of power. He could be forced to resign - or be impeached.
I don't know if the idea of a figurehead President is an alien one to you, but I can promise you it is quite common in Europe. Germany uses that system.
Every body knows that Russia is not democratic and Putin is an autocratic demon.. but you have to let everyone air their views equally, not allowing some to make very negative comments about Russia and as soon as anyone makes a negative comment about the West based on facts, you draw out the rule book, thought we are in a democracy here. Was the Croatian presidents comments about the maidan coup a lie? Chechnya didn't have armoured forces but they had what the Ukranians didn't have, HEART, Ukraine couldn't fight for Crimea
They are the same thing, in fact Russian media is playing catch up to their Western counterparts, i am Irish, my parents are originally from West Africa, all the money stolen from Africa are in Western banks, no report about this in Western media, for some reason all the investigative journalists have gone to sleep. Let's talk based on facts on the ground, don't paint anyone one the devil, that's all am trying to say.
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- #176
Minor point of fact correction, in the early stages of both Chechen wars, they did have some armor and iirc artillery. Especially when they invaded Dagestan. They certainly didn't have anything on the scale of Ukraine today.
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- #177
Russia didn't turn Chechens against each other. The various teyp's in Chechnya already had all kinds of blood feuds and internal conflicts. Overall Chechnya is not a useful analogy to the current conflict. Russia was a very different place back then, and the Russian military was a very different structure. The nature of the conflict was more counter-insurgency/light infantry engagements in difficult and mountainous terrain. Here we have a relatively flat area, with large state on state combat action (even if a couple of the states are unrecognized by anyone). The political situation inside 90's Chechnya is itself a separate complex can of worms, and the Caucuses in general are very complex. There are patterns of almost sectarian and generational violence and feuding there that aren't analogous at all to the situation in Ukraine.
We are a professional Defence Forum, not a forum for political discussion. Our rules clearly state that. If you don't like our rules then don't stay. BUT IF YOU STAY YOU FOLLOW OUR RULES JUST LIKE EVERYONE ELSE ON HERE. That's democracy. Your choice stay or leave.
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Russia
A huge assortment of Russian troop movements. Again note the scale and quantity of materials. This is what Russian troop concentrations look like. Incidentally this is confirmation that Russia has not improved their OPSEC enough to conceal large troop movements.
Russian troops inside Belarus.
vk.com
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vk.com
vk.com
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vk.com
In Belarus, a MAZ army truck collided with a regular car.
vk.com
An East MD troop train headed to Belarus.
vk.com
Russian S-300V train in Bryansk.
vk.com
Pantsyr train in Lipetsk region.
vk.com
Troop columns in Smolensk.
vk.com
The 150th Motor-Rifles have deployed to training fields in Rostov-na-Donu region.
vk.com
vk.com
Engineers troop train, location unknown.
vk.com
Various Russian troop trains, location unknown.
vk.com
Russia has stated that there is a high chance of Ukrainian offensive operations against the LDNR.
vk.com
Ukraine
A chart of Ukrainian Su-25s post-USSR.
vk.com
KrAZ has resumed deliveries to the Ukrainian armed forces. This comes after an interruption.
US/NATO
A US troop train in Romania heading eastward.
vk.com
More US recon flights near Russia.
vk.com
A group of US PMCs have shown up near the front line in Donbass.
vk.com
vk.com
Two US planes have now arrived in Ukraine with military aid (after 8 British ones). US planes are carrying M141 SMAW-D bunker-busting munitions, and more Javelins.
topwar.ru
Germany has blocked the delivery of artillery systems from the Estonia to Ukraine.
vk.com
topwar.ru
Stinger and Javelin deliveries from the Baltics to Ukraine have been confirmed.
vk.com
The US is considering transferring some ex-Afghani Mi-17s to Ukraine.
vk.com
Misc.
An explosion has taken place in Voronezh, on a bus, killing 2, wounding 26. Russia is claiming Ukrainians are responsible (though not claiming state action at this point).
vk.com
A huge assortment of Russian troop movements. Again note the scale and quantity of materials. This is what Russian troop concentrations look like. Incidentally this is confirmation that Russia has not improved their OPSEC enough to conceal large troop movements.
Russian troops inside Belarus.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
In Belarus, a MAZ army truck collided with a regular car.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
An East MD troop train headed to Belarus.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian S-300V train in Bryansk.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Pantsyr train in Lipetsk region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Troop columns in Smolensk.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The 150th Motor-Rifles have deployed to training fields in Rostov-na-Donu region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Engineers troop train, location unknown.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Various Russian troop trains, location unknown.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russia has stated that there is a high chance of Ukrainian offensive operations against the LDNR.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukraine
A chart of Ukrainian Su-25s post-USSR.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
KrAZ has resumed deliveries to the Ukrainian armed forces. This comes after an interruption.
US/NATO
A US troop train in Romania heading eastward.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
More US recon flights near Russia.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A group of US PMCs have shown up near the front line in Donbass.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Two US planes have now arrived in Ukraine with military aid (after 8 British ones). US planes are carrying M141 SMAW-D bunker-busting munitions, and more Javelins.
Второй самолёт с военной помощью США приземлился в Киеве
США и союзники по НАТО в последние дни буквально заваливают Украину оружием, вызывая восторг Киева. Вслед за восьмью военно-транспортными самолетами ВВС Великобритании, в аэропорту украинской столицы приземлились два американских самолета с военной помощью. Предыдущая неделя для украинских властей
topwar.ru
Germany has blocked the delivery of artillery systems from the Estonia to Ukraine.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Парламент Германии отказал Эстонии в возможности передачи немецких вооружений Украине
Здание парламента Германии Немецкие власти продолжают проявлять собственную позицию по поводу вооружения Украины летальным оружием. Если многие другие страны НАТО либо направляют оружие в Киев сами, либо делают это через своих «партнёров», то в Берлине решили сохранять запрет на поставки
topwar.ru
Stinger and Javelin deliveries from the Baltics to Ukraine have been confirmed.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The US is considering transferring some ex-Afghani Mi-17s to Ukraine.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Misc.
An explosion has taken place in Voronezh, on a bus, killing 2, wounding 26. Russia is claiming Ukrainians are responsible (though not claiming state action at this point).
VK.com | VK
vk.com
the concerned
Active Member
I was wondering if hostilities do start in Ukraine. If Belarusian forces became involved would that create a different response from NATO.