Bombing Ireland is for fun and target practice.
Now see that's what Russia thought about Ukraine but everyone got mad
for some reason.
I'd rather you not take every single word so literally.
It's not every word. These are significant distinct positions and you seem to bounce back and forth between them with confident statements but no commitment to any of them.
Ukraine will get more aid. Ukraine probably will get more aid. Ukraine might get more aid. Ukraine could get more aid. Ukraine should get more aid. Ukraine will get comparable amounts of aid. Ukraine will probably get less aid.
Ukraine will possibly get less aid. Ukraine will get less aid. These aren't semantic distinctions. They are all different positions on the future of aid to Ukraine, many of them mutually exclusive. I've bolded the positions you've taken in recent posts. Do you see the cause of the confusion?
I trust that Trump's plan, regardless of the method, is meant to strengthen Europe by forcing rearmament. And I trust that if such process were to succeed, Ukraine will benefit, at least in the long term, via direct and indirect improvements to aid capacity. I don't think the US will disengage. I think it'll carefully navigate between upping Ukraine aid and incentivizing Europe to modernize and rearm.
Ok, I understand what you're saying here. Again I think it's a very generous reading of US foreign policy, and gives Trump and his team a lot of credit. I guess time will tell whether they will live up to this optimism.
Elevating Ukraine aid is not necessarily a matter of quantity. A lower quantity but higher quality aid may in fact be more effective, including and primarily a lifting on usage restrictions.
I strongly disagree. Ukraine has problems with sufficient quantity of just about everything. Quality is also of course an issue but homeopathic quantities of modern equipment won't help. Europe's option isn't providing giant quantities of Leo-1s or smaller quantities of Leo-2A8s. Europe's option is providing small quantities of Leo-1s or tiny quantities of Leo-2A8s. You can't stop the Leo-1 transfer and use those funds to purchase 1 sad btln of Leo-2A8s per year and expect good outcomes.
On a more macro level, a hawkish POTUS and more hawkish European leadership (Merz and hopefully others soon), is net good for Ukraine and it could manifest in any number of ways.
In general terms, sure. But this isn't a generic "hawkish POTUS". It's Trump specifically.
And on the subject of peacekeepers, the currently proposed 30k figure is inadequate, and sounds a lot like a repeat of the masters-of-retreat UN.
Current conversations around peacekeeping are all very strange. One of the suggestions is what amounts to an allied expeditionary force to protect Ukrainian rear areas and assist with air defense. I don't know that we're talking about peacekeepers in the format they've historically been present in. The words here might mean something very different.
In the short term it almost certainly means Ukraine getting somewhat less, but long term it could mean it getting more modern equipment. What Ukraine needs more of is munitions, not platforms. The opposite is true for Europe. They first need more platforms, while munitions production has already been drastically increased. So it could align well.
I think Ukraine absolutely needs more platforms. There are still plenty of Ukrainian army units whose main transports are unarmored civilian vehicles. Ukraine's artillery park is still in a sorry state, with many units continuing to use improvised MLRS or antiquated artillery. Moreover many artillery units are just lacking numbers. 4-gun batteries, 2-battery btlns, are all a reality of the AFU. Without creating new units, just to bring current formations up to TO&E strength requires a lot more aid, and the aid has to come at a rate greater than battlefield losses.
You've also just completely walked back your earlier argument. And by the way, I do agree with what you state here. Ukraine gets less in the short term, and
could get more modern equipment in the long term assuming Europe decides to give it to them. This does nothing to address the problem of Ukraine's survival or achieving their objectives in this war and the lower quantities received in the short term could spell their doom.
I think that was a legitimate decision. Poland already spends ~5% on defense, AFAIK. Why should it fund even more aid to Ukraine when some of the large Euro economies aren't even at 2% yet? (Looking hard at Italy here).
I understand your point. You say a lot's still missing. And I agree, it is missing. Otherwise I wouldn't be so Euro-critical. But the vector is right.
I also think it's a legitimate decision (who in their right mind would claim otherwise? It's their money, it's their defense budget, they can spend it as they see fit). But what I'm pointing out is that the direction of movement is congruent to what you claim but the results aren't. In other words, the things you're advocating don't seem to lead to the outcomes you're expecting.
EDIT: Perfect illustration, the negotiations that just took place in the White House between Zelensky and Trump. Let's just say they did
not go well. It doesn't look like Trump has a clever plan that ends with a Ukrainian victory. It looks like he expects Zelensky to pay the costs of US aid as defined by Trump&Co. while agreeing to a US-negotiated end to the war even if they don't like it.