The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Big_Zucchini]

Thought on the recent surge in shot down Russian aircraft:
While any shot down plane is good news for Ukraine, it is likely a 2nd order effect of Russia's ability to revitalize its airforce to a position of relevance in the war.

 

[Fredled]

@KipPotapych It's not the mobilised who need a pass to travel inside Russia but those, military and civilian alike, who live in Military Zones. These MZ can be quiet large and contain hundreds of thousands of people. Not only members of the military and their families but factory workers and various state employees. I misunderstood who my friend was talking about.
Mobilised and could-be mobilised men have to register to the local police station if they move to another town or province for more than 24h. (A little bit like foreigners who come to Russia.)
Mother, father, wives and children of mobilised soldiers are not allowed to travel outside Russia. They can sell real estate properties but it's a lot of extra red tape. The proceed must remain in Russia. That's what he confirmed to me today.

(Sorry for the off-topic)

 

[Vivendi]

According to Kyiv Post, Ukraine has downed three (!) Su-34 today. If correct this means that Russia has lost 12 "Su" planes (mainly Su-35 and Su-34?) during the last 13 days. Incredible numbers, if confirmed.

Ukrainian Air Force Downs Three More Russian Fighter-Bombers, Bringing Total to 12 in 13 Days (kyivpost.com)

 

[T.C.P]

Still no evidence of a single Su-34 shotdown. Ukraine's aircraft shootdown claims are starting to resemble their missile shootdown claims.

 

[Jaykaro]

Still no evidence of a single Su-34 shotdown. Ukraine's aircraft shootdown claims are starting to resemble their missile shootdown claims.

On December 22, there are posts from the Russian side confirming the deaths of three Su-34 pilots. On February 17, there is at least confirmed loss of Su-34 and Su-35, according to Russian information, allegedly due to friendly fire, but in any case, losses are confirmed by both sides, traces of the work of the COSPAS system on pilots. As well as search operations in the area of debris in the Sea of Azov, there is also a video of the plane crash

 

[T.C.P]

On December 22, there are posts from the Russian side confirming the deaths of three Su-34 pilots. On February 17, there is at least confirmed loss of Su-34 and Su-35, according to Russian information, allegedly due to friendly fire, but in any case, losses are confirmed by both sides, traces of the work of the COSPAS system on pilots. As well as search operations in the area of debris in the Sea of Azov, there is also a video of the plane crash

We are not talking about the ones from December, we are talking about the recent claims in Feb. More specifically, I am talking about all the claims post the last confirmed A-50U shootdown.

 

[Fredled]

We are not talking about the ones from December, we are talking about the recent claims in Feb. More specifically, I am talking about all the claims post the last confirmed A-50U shootdown.

Why would Ukrainians lie about it? What they say doesn't change anything.

 

[Feanor]

Why would Ukrainians lie about it? What they say doesn't change anything.

Probably for the same reasons Ukrainians lie about having only 31 000 KIA in this war.

Do you really not see it? Ukraine is getting pummeled from the air, and soldiers on the front are feeling it. Claiming downed Russian jets can be a morale boost to indicate that something is being done. 12 jets in 13 days is nearly unprecedented losses for this war. And there isn't a single photo of wreckage, a single piece of confirmation. Fighterbomber who has repeatedly confirmed Russian aircraft losses has denied some of these and ignored the others.

EDIT: What do you know, he just commented on Ukraine's "successes".

"In short, you understand, that in country 404* they have their own war. It's pointless to try to argue, the people on the other hand are stubborn**.

If there will be losses, I will write.
I can't waste my time on denials.

For now we've lined up a few 34's for you, so you can count them.

Don't mind the atmosphere in the cabin, it's a normal education process."

Fighterbomber

Кароче, вы сами понимаете, что в стране 404 своя война. Что-то опровергать, бессмысленно, на том конце провода упоротые. Если будет потеря, я напишу. Тратить на опровержения время, я не могу. Пока мы тут для вас немножко 34х построили, чтоб посчитать, все ли на месте. Все. На атмосферу в...

t.me

*Country 404 is Russian slang for Ukraine.
** He didn't say stubborn exactly (упрямые) he said (упоротые) which is more someone who is stubborn to the point of ridiculousness.

Translation mine.

 

[seaspear]

If Russia has not been losing these aircraft to Ukrainian measures then they will continue to use them and their glide bombs to attack Ukrainian positions ,if they start to use other aircraft to attempt this role . The German air force used to dispute R.AA.F claims to which the British gave a similar reply to American reporters for the "Battle of Britain"

 

[KipPotapych]

Why would Ukrainians lie about it? What they say doesn't change anything.

For the same reason they have these numbers:

From the UA official website:

Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

Casualties of the armed forces of the Russian Federation during the war in Ukraine.

index.minfin.com.ua

Note that the numbers were updated today (I guess yesterday their time). Also note that they added 10 planes to their count since February 1 and 13 since January 1 of this year. So they can’t even lie consistently.

That alone may suggest that a number of the Russian aircraft being shot down recently is not necessarily true, but who knows. I have not seen any evidence for the UA claims, except for what has also been confirmed by the Russians. So did this happen and we don’t have RU confirmation due to the lack of evidence or it (some? most?) didn’t happen? The last three that were claimed to be shot down appear to be mainly backed by the following “evidence” (original Twitter post):

Thread by @moklasen on Thread Reader App

@moklasen: by : claimed SU-35 crash size crash site #1 47.92781,39.16276 near Dyakove (17.02.24) t.me/DniproOsintNew claimed su-34 crash site #2 47.76915, 38.4414 near Novojelanchyk (17.02.24) claimed su-34 crash si...…

threadreaderapp.com

This isn’t evidence at all and I am genuinely amazed that Def Mon took it as some great confirmation because he is generally diligent enough, but whatever. To that effect, there were a few people who refuted the “evidence”. Here is one example (original Twitter post):

So yeah, not sure how that qualifies as evidence. Don’t think there was anything better than even that for the reaming claims. Russians, on the other hand, alleged that one downed Russian Su-34 was actually Ukrainians shooting down their own Su-27 (also without much evidence, but relying on “common sense” and claiming that it was since confirmed):

Донбасский Партизан

Анализ информации о крушении Су-34 ВКС РФ В украинском новостном сегменте активно разгоняется информация о сбитии многофункционального истребителя-бомбардировщика Су-34 ВКС РФ, который якобы был поражен украинскими системами ПВО вблизи Курахово. ▪️Российские пилоты понимают, что залетать...

t.me

My personal opinion is that it is rubbish. Is it plausible that they shot down 11 RU planes in 11 days? Yes. Is it likely? Not really, I don’t think. One thing that may support their statements is the Russian claims (all but one with convincing evidence) of taking out a number of the Ukrainian AD assets in the recent days, including a couple of S-300, a couple of radars, NASAMS, Buk, etc. Summarized here by Rybar (with appropriate links provided):

Рыбарь

Как известно очковтирательство является одной из проблемой, которая очень мешает выполнению боевых задач, а порой приводит к гибели личного состава и ужасным последствиям. Но бывает и так, что оно полезно, естественно, если это очковтирательство врага. 17 февраля был освобождён город Авдеевка...

t.me

It would make sense for the Ukrainians to pull some AD assets close (or to) the frontline because these bombs are really causing a lot of trouble for their defending forces. I see this as a possible “circumstantial evidence”, if you will. Of course that doesn’t prove or disprove anything. On the other hand, the RU keep dropping those bombs all the same, which also doesn’t disprove anything.

Another aspect that suggests to me that what UA claim isn’t actually happening is that none of the (western) analyst I follow on daily basis had any mentions of any of the claims but those that were later confirmed by the Russians. The Kyiv Post article cited above is also extremely weak, simply parroting the reports of the UA officials (I also now see that it is 13 planes in 13 days) without providing any evidence. That is actually a bit disappointing to me because I think it is presently the best UA media outlet. Interestingly, they state the following, citing a Forbes article:

The repeated downings are a significant setback for Russian forces, who struggle to produce more than a few dozen new warplanes each year due to foreign sanctions. As noted by Forbes, they are losing jets 20 times faster than they can replace them.

How crazy is that statement?!

To wrap it up, due to the lack of any hard evidence, I am going with “I don’t believe you”. I should also add that given the situation Ukraine is in and the loss of those AD assets, even provided they did what they claim (11 (or 13) planes in 11 (or 13) days), not sure who is really losing here.

I actually came to talk about the idea of western troops in Ukraine discussed the other day, but I guess that would have to wait till the next time.

 

[seaspear]

Claims of losses are difficult of course to corroborate but there some

Shooting Down 11 Jets In 11 Days, Ukraine Nudges The Russian Air Force Closer To Organizational Death-Spiral

The Russian air force lost another Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber on Thursday, the Ukrainian air force claimed. Its seventh in 11 days.

www.forbes.com

10 Days, 10 Aircraft Lost! Ukraine Claims Downing Another Russian Warplane, Says 'Oops, We Did It Again'

Russia’s advancement in Avdiivka, based on its temporary establishment of limited and localized air superiority, has been ephemeral. In 10 days, the Russian Air Force has reportedly lost its tenth warplane, including Sukhoi Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets, and a critical asset, the A-50 Beriev...

www.eurasiantimes.com

 

[Fredled]

Why would Ukrainians lie about it? What they say doesn't change anything.

Probably for the same reasons Ukrainians lie about having only 31 000 KIA in this war.

For the same reason they have these numbers:
My personal opinion is that it is rubbish.

I don't understand why so much hubbub about Ukes claiming to have shot down 11 Russian jets in 11 days and almost none the month before.
Why do I think that these numbers are correct (give or take
one or two)? Because it's pretty poor performance.

The Ukrainian Airforce admits the lack of sufficient AD. And that they use a lot of SAM rockets for little result.

The Russians make between 50 and 100 sorties per day and only a few planes are being intercepted here and there. If Ukrainians could keep up the shooting down at a rate of one per day for two months, then it would make a difference. But 11 planes, it's peanuts. Russia still has over 1200 fighter-bomber jets and build 20 new ones per year. Long way to go.

Of course announcing these small successes could boost the morale but if the troops in the trenches keep seeing heavy bombs falling on them, this boost will be short lived.

In other words, these announcement of downing one or two Su35 or Su34 are basic daily reporting without any relevance. It doesn't change the course of the war.

 

[vikingatespam]

Over time quantity becomes quality.

You are not the first to know this - Joseph Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own.”

History repeats itself.

 

[seaspear]

The downing of the Su35,s has some relevance to that aircrafts ability to drop the fab bombs, I am not able to find any source to suggest that Russia has 1200 fighter jets capable of carrying this type of munition ,I understood some 200 hundred of the su34 fighter bombers were delivered to the Russian airforce there had been losses of such aircraft before this conflict and that Oryx had believed some 25 had been lost in Ukraine

Russia’s Got A Giant New Glide-Bomb

The Russians’ new glide-bomb is big. Really big. And not for no reason: a bigger bomb doesn’t need to be so accurate.

www.forbes.com

 

[Feanor]

You are not the first to know this - Joseph Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own.”

History repeats itself.

Yes, I was quoting from memory.

The downing of the Su35,s has some relevance to that aircrafts ability to drop the fab bombs, I am not able to find any source to suggest that Russia has 1200 fighter jets capable of carrying this type of munition ,I understood some 200 hundred of the su34 fighter bombers were delivered to the Russian airforce there had been losses of such aircraft before this conflict and that Oryx had believed some 25 had been lost in Ukraine

Russia’s Got A Giant New Glide-Bomb

The Russians’ new glide-bomb is big. Really big. And not for no reason: a bigger bomb doesn’t need to be so accurate.

www.forbes.com

Iirc Russia had pre-war ~130 Su-34s, ~120 Su-35s, and ~100 Su-30SM.

Claims of losses are difficult of course to corroborate but there some

Shooting Down 11 Jets In 11 Days, Ukraine Nudges The Russian Air Force Closer To Organizational Death-Spiral

The Russian air force lost another Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber on Thursday, the Ukrainian air force claimed. Its seventh in 11 days.

www.forbes.com

10 Days, 10 Aircraft Lost! Ukraine Claims Downing Another Russian Warplane, Says 'Oops, We Did It Again'

Russia’s advancement in Avdiivka, based on its temporary establishment of limited and localized air superiority, has been ephemeral. In 10 days, the Russian Air Force has reportedly lost its tenth warplane, including Sukhoi Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets, and a critical asset, the A-50 Beriev...

www.eurasiantimes.com

This doesn't corroborate anything. It's a discussion that takes Ukrainian claims as true at face value and then discusses what that means for Russia...

 

[vikingatespam]

According to Kyiv Post, Ukraine has downed three (!) Su-34 today. If correct this means that Russia has lost 12 "Su" planes (mainly Su-35 and Su-34?) during the last 13 days. Incredible numbers, if confirmed.

Some indications that the shootdowns on the 19th are confirmed.

Yes, we can all agree the UKR are likely inflating kill claims. On the other hand, given the lethality of the mobile patriot battery and a possible increase in the RU sortie rate, increased RU aviation losses are possible. 12 in 13 days ? Probably not.

Anyone have a tally of confirmed kills for the (presumably one) roving Patriot battery ?

 

[vikingatespam]

Russia still has over 1200 fighter-bomber jets and build 20 new ones per year. Long way to go.

While RU may this number of paper, the fact they arent using anywhere near these numbers suggests to me that the # of usable airframes and pilots is much lower. While RU is likely making enough airframes to account for attrition, the dead pilots will take much longer to replace.

 

[Feanor]

While RU may this number of paper, the fact they arent using anywhere near these numbers suggests to me that the # of usable airframes and pilots is much lower. While RU is likely making enough airframes to account for attrition, the dead pilots will take much longer to replace.

I think availability of munitions is probably a bigger limitation rather then airframes. You could use a MiG-29, or Su-24, or really a MiG-21 to throw gliding bombs.

Some indications that the shootdowns on the 19th are confirmed.

Yes, we can all agree the UKR are likely inflating kill claims. On the other hand, given the lethality of the mobile patriot battery and a possible increase in the RU sortie rate, increased RU aviation losses are possible. 12 in 13 days ? Probably not.

Anyone have a tally of confirmed kills for the (presumably one) roving Patriot battery ?

Everyone keeps saying roving Patriot battery, but recent indications suggest that Ukraine has actually moved some S-300 batteries closer to the front. A couple got hit lately far closer then usual to the front lines. I'll post it in my next update.

 

[Fredled]

While RU may this number of paper, the fact they arent using anywhere near these numbers suggests to me that the # of usable airframes and pilots is much lower. While RU is likely making enough airframes to account for attrition, the dead pilots will take much longer to replace.

Yes, this includes planes of all generations, semi-decommissioned, under repair etc...

 

[Fredled]

I think availability of munitions is probably a bigger limitation rather then airframes. You could use a MiG-29, or Su-24, or really a MiG-21 to throw gliding bombs.

Everyone keeps saying roving Patriot battery, but recent indications suggest that Ukraine has actually moved some S-300 batteries closer to the front. A couple got hit lately far closer then usual to the front lines. I'll post it in my next update.

Yes. Having the planes is one thing, having many of them ready for attacks every day for two years in a row, is another thing. They also keep squadrons in other military sector or district or whatever they call it of the Russian Federation.

They still have S300 rockets?