The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[kato]

Curiously however...

Germany okays sale of former GDR infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine

Germany has approved the delivery to Ukraine of several dozen infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) that originally belonged to the former communist East Germany amid criticism that Berlin is not sending enough military aid to Kyiv.

www.reuters.com

Those vehicles are not in Germany. They are czech-owned and apparently a remaining stock from when Sweden bought ex-East-German BMP1 from Germany and had them modified by a czech company.

I find it a bit hard to believe there isn't a single marder available in NATO.
Particularly as they were supposed to be replaced by the Puma.

The official statement is that all own Marder IFVs are bound by NATO obligations. All owned Marders are part of active or reserve units, with possible a low maintenance reserve beyond that.

There are no disused stocks. Vehicles no longer used are typically sold off to "Battle Tank Dismantling GmbH" (owned by KMW since 2016) and are awaiting disposal with that company in Rockensußra, East Germany. Typically around 500-800 armoured vehicles per year.

 

[STURM]

Instead of predictably denying it outright; the Russians should say that they condemn such actions; that they'll perform an investigation and that if indeed Russian troops committed this atrocity they'll be dealt with.

 

[Vivendi]

RIA Novosti has published a piece on Ukraine. According to the translation, it claims that "majority of Ukrainian population is Nazi", calls for "elimination" of political leaders in Ukraine, and "elimination" of all Ukrainians with weapons. Denazification should last at least one generation. Ukraine should no longer have a national identity.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510908227202002947

Do we have any Russian speaking members who can comment on the correctness of the translation done by this journalist?

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

RIA Novosti has published a piece on Ukraine. According to the translation, it claims that "majority of Ukrainian population is Nazi", calls for "elimination" of political leaders in Ukraine, and "elimination" of all Ukrainians with weapons. Denazification should last at least one generation. Ukraine should no longer have a national identity.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510908227202002947

Do we have any Russian speaking members who can comment on the correctness of the translation done by this journalist?

It's a very long piece! So far, it appears to me he has paraphrased in a sense ... well, not exactly in keeping with the original. As far as I can tell, not having read the entire piece yet, there are some places where the RIA Novosti author is speaking about what should be done in the newly-broadened area of LDNR after the war (the part Russia plans to peel off in eastern Ukraine and play keepers with in some fashion), but the Twitter guy interprets everything, including those passages, as applying the whole of Ukraine.

My Russian getting rusty these day and it's slow going at times for me, especially as this whole RIA Novosti piece is rather bizarre. I will edit/update this post after I have finished reading the rest of the piece. I'm sure there are members here whose Russian is far superior to mine and they will hopefully chime in before long.

EDIT:

The original piece is here btw: Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной

Google Translate works on it, although with this kind of piece it may come down to linguistic intricacies that machine translation doesn't cover.

This is what I am reading (article at this url). Google translate doesn't work for me, at least not the google translate for websites. It could be because Google is blocking that function on Russian websites here in the US. I tried via proxy going through the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, still blocked. If you have a link to the article translated into English, that would be helpful, as readers here could decide for themselves. Just copy the url after you have it translated and post it here. I've done that before here and it worked fine.

 

[kato]

The original piece is here btw: Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной

Google Translate works on it, although with this kind of piece it may come down to linguistic intricacies that machine translation doesn't cover.

 

[the concerned]

How can Putin deny any Russian involvement in the atrocities. I am pretty sure the one thing everyone can agree on is that throughout the whole of this campaign so far the vast majority of the Russian forces have been anything but organised and professional.

 

[hauritz]

hypohystericalhistory videos are always worth a listen.

 

[Feanor]

RIA Novosti has published a piece on Ukraine. According to the translation, it claims that "majority of Ukrainian population is Nazi", calls for "elimination" of political leaders in Ukraine, and "elimination" of all Ukrainians with weapons. Denazification should last at least one generation. Ukraine should no longer have a national identity.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510908227202002947

Do we have any Russian speaking members who can comment on the correctness of the translation done by this journalist?

He's mostly right. The article argues that Ukraine in its present form shouldn't be a country, and that most of it should be broken up into people's republics under Russian occupation, stripped of the very name Ukraine. It argues that this process will take a generation or more, and will require censorship and indoctrination to accomplish. It also argues that all Nazi with weapons in hand should be eliminated on the battlefield. It's pretty surprising stuff and if this is anything other then a private opinion of one marginalized writer, if this is in any way indicative, this is scary stuff.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

He's mostly right. The article argues that Ukraine in its present form shouldn't be a country, and that most of it should be broken up into people's republics under Russian occupation, stripped of the very name Ukraine. It argues that this process will take a generation or more, and will require censorship and indoctrination to accomplish. It also argues that all Nazi with weapons in hand should be eliminated on the battlefield. It's pretty surprising stuff and if this is anything other then a private opinion of one marginalized writer, if this is in any way indicative, this is scary stuff.

Thanks! Your Russian is far superior to mine, for sure, so it's reasduring to me that I have reached the same conclusion after making it about 3/4 through. At first, it seemed to me that by "territories" he meant LDNR+, and implied these would be independent republics in CIS. Perhaps that was my own bias, as in the beginning I wasn't prepared for the utter madness that Russia is in any position to take that amount of territory. It was hard to wrap my mind around the sheer looniness of it all as I read on.

Perhaps it's my rusty Russian, but the style of writing reminds me somewhat of some of the hard-to-read (for me) Soviet propaganda pieces of 50 years ago (which I privately call commiebureaucratic-ese) -- that odd, somewhat stilted style with intellectual pretensions, obviously carefully walking the line of the old Soviet version of political correctness, all while trying push some ridiculous propaganda or proposal or new policy. So far as I have made it through, it's bizarre and divorced from reality.

The only good news is the reactions and comments. Not exactly a popular piece.

EDIT: Aha. The author *is* a die-hard communist. Found him here:

Архивы Timofey Sergeytsev - Rossa Primavera

eu.eot.su

Obviously a Russian propaganda site, and avowedly communist, it's, um, interesting. There is more bizarre Ukraine-bashing by their "philosophers" such as this one:

Russian challenge or Russian response? Foreword to ‘Ukrainism’

Russian challenge or Russian response? Foreword to ‘Ukrainism’ Rossa Primavera

eu.eot.su

Apparently, this is a commie "thing" right now.

 

[kato]

EDIT: Aha. The author *is* a die-hard communist.

That doesn't quite jive with this part though:

Denazification will inevitably also be a de-Ukrainization - a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic component of self-identification of the population of the territories of historical Little Russia and New Russia, begun by the Soviet authorities. Being an instrument of the communist superpower, after its fall, artificial ethnocentrism did not remain ownerless.

As i would understand that he accuses the Soviet Union of artificially inflating and promoting self-identification of the population within [the southern and eastern parts of what is today Ukraine] as Ukrainians as a political instrument.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

That doesn't quite jive with this part though:

Denazification will inevitably also be a de-Ukrainization - a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic component of self-identification of the population of the territories of historical Little Russia and New Russia, begun by the Soviet authorities. Being an instrument of the communist superpower, after its fall, artificial ethnocentrism did not remain ownerless.

As i would understand that he accuses the Soviet Union of artificially inflating and promoting self-identification of the population within [the southern and eastern parts of what is today Ukraine] as Ukrainians as a political instrument.

One can be a hardcore communist and still criticize the Soviets. It's popular, in fact. The collapse of the old USSR was a great embarrassment to them. But, these people say, communism is great! It's just that the Soviets got it wrong. It's not that communism has been tried and found wanting, it is that communism hasn't been tried properly.

 

[T.C.P]

First time seeing Russian drone strike footage that is not heavily downgraded. Most likely Orlon

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tw860f
Allegedly guided artillery strike on an ammo dump
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tw5js7
With the amount of fuel and ammo infrastructure Russia has hit in Ukraine, what is the UA capacity to attack the East and other rebel/Russian storngholds?

And on a more economic note, the sheer cost of infrastructure blown up in Ukraine so far has been staggering, after the conflict dies down and there is proper assessment done on repair and rebuilding, the cost will be immense. The EU and the US will surely help Ukraine build back up, but how much will they be capable of investing? A post pandemic, post trade war EU is not exactly in a spot to invest the billions required. I wonder if China will use this to create more trouble. Right now Ukraine is staunchly anti china, but post war if the Chinese promise cheap infrastructure, it will be interesting to see how that will pan out.

 

[GermanHerman]

Apparently upwards of 200 ukrainian Marines surrendered in Mariopol. It's claimed that this are members of the 503rd Marine Battalion, different sources claim different numbers of POW but they are around 260-270.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511055674775674894

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511052913623412753

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

How can Putin deny any Russian involvement in the atrocities. I am pretty sure the one thing everyone can agree on is that throughout the whole of this campaign so far the vast majority of the Russian forces have been anything but organised and professional.

Putin: "I'm not naked. I'm wearing the finest, thinest clothes known to mankind!"

Yes, in the real world the evidence continues to mount. It just further reinforces the point that the Russians are lacking discipline and are not the effective fighting force they could be on paper.

As Russian soldiers retreat, they leave evidence of war crimes

A culture of violence pervades the invading army

www.economist.com

General Sir Richard Barrons, who commanded Britain’s joint forces until 2016, says that the evidence of civilian abuses by Russian forces “reveals a failure of leadership at all levels, a collapse in morale, a failure of training in the most fundamental rules of war, and probably above all a failure of collective and self-discipline in the face of the staunch resistance.”

The outcome, he says, will be militarily and diplomatically counter-productive: “to redouble Ukrainian resistance, spur on Western military support for sanctions and military aid, and significantly reduce the space for dialogue.”

Barrons saw service in the Balkans, Northern Ireland, Afghanistan and Iraq. He's not some wet blanket - if he deems the evidence sufficient to prove the case it has to further support the Ukrainians' position.

 

[GermanHerman]

Seems like ukrainians had some revanche.

There is a new video showing a group of executed russian POWs and the killing of a wounded POW.

The situation is deteriorating in an arlarming fashion. I wont post the video, it's easily enough to find.

I personaly think it's time for the west to apply some pressure to ukraine. It's not the first time this happened, and frankly, we have seen quite problematic behaviour from ukrainian soldiers since the start of the war.

The government has to condemn this kind of actions and start to investigate the people involved or it will happen again.

@GermanHerman You've been on here long enough to know the rules. Not posting the link is a cop out*. Either support your claims or withdraw your accusations. You are quick to bad mouth the Ukrainians and support the Russians. I don't see you condemning Russian war crimes, of which plenty of evidence has surfaced.

*Such links can be posted with the appropriate warnings. If in doubt message one of the Moderators with the link and we will be happy to advise. We can always insert the link later.

Ngatimozart.

 

[Twain]

"An analysis of satellite images by The New York Times rebuts claims by Russia that the killing of civilians in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, occurred after its soldiers had left the town.
When images emerged over the weekend of the bodies of dead civilians lying on the streets of Bucha — some with their hands bound, some with gunshot wounds to the head — Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied responsibility. In a Telegram post on Sunday, the ministry suggested that the bodies had been recently placed on the streets after “all Russian units withdrew completely from Bucha” around March 30.

Russia claimed that the images were “another hoax” and called for an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on what it called “provocations of Ukrainian radicals” in Bucha.

But a review of videos and satellite imagery by The Times shows that many of the civilians were killed more than three weeks ago, when Russia’s military was in control of the town."

Satellite images show bodies lay in Bucha for weeks, despite Russian claims. (Published 2022)

The images rebut Russia’s claim that the killing of civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, took place after its soldiers had left town.

www.nytimes.com

 

[cdxbow]

"An analysis of satellite images by The New York Times rebuts claims by Russia that the killing of civilians in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, occurred after its soldiers had left the town.
When images emerged over the weekend of the bodies of dead civilians lying on the streets of Bucha — some with their hands bound, some with gunshot wounds to the head — Russia’s Ministry of Defense denied responsibility. In a Telegram post on Sunday, the ministry suggested that the bodies had been recently placed on the streets after “all Russian units withdrew completely from Bucha” around March 30.

Russia claimed that the images were “another hoax” and called for an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on what it called “provocations of Ukrainian radicals” in Bucha.

But a review of videos and satellite imagery by The Times shows that many of the civilians were killed more than three weeks ago, when Russia’s military was in control of the town."

Satellite images show bodies lay in Bucha for weeks, despite Russian claims. (Published 2022)

The images rebut Russia’s claim that the killing of civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, took place after its soldiers had left town.

www.nytimes.com

I know getting in first is important with propaganda, however when the evidence looks overwhelming it seems stupid to highlight it and bring it to everyone's (UN/worlds) attention. Another mistake by the Master Strategist.

Internet sleuths/anonymous/Ukraine intelligence are attributing the Bucha Massacre to this man Lieutenant Colonel Omurbekov Azatbek Asanbekovich, military unit 51460 I think on the basis he was in charge of that unit and it was known to be in control of the area of that time. Not direct evidence. Bellingcat look at Russian denials Russia’s Bucha “Facts” Versus the Evidence - bellingcat

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Don't know if it was discussed, but what do you guys think this second phase will look like, of Russia going back to Donbass to continue the fight from there?

In the 2014-2022 period before the invasion, Russia handled the military situation quite well. It bled Ukraine more than it bled itself. It used special assets like SIGINT and EW, artillery, armor, and AA in a coordinated, quite competent manner.
If Russia goes back to that state of action, and simply beefs up any element that existed there with more modern equipment or larger quantities, and loses all inhibitions, it might have a high effect and turn the tide on this war. Of course, it would no longer have the ability to blitz into Kiyv, but it could slowly but surely gain territory.

Small ops is where the Russian army might be competent, and seeing it reorganize and shift strategy seems like bad news to me.

 

[Feanor]

Don't know if it was discussed, but what do you guys think this second phase will look like, of Russia going back to Donbass to continue the fight from there?

In the 2014-2022 period before the invasion, Russia handled the military situation quite well. It bled Ukraine more than it bled itself. It used special assets like SIGINT and EW, artillery, armor, and AA in a coordinated, quite competent manner.
If Russia goes back to that state of action, and simply beefs up any element that existed there with more modern equipment or larger quantities, and loses all inhibitions, it might have a high effect and turn the tide on this war. Of course, it would no longer have the ability to blitz into Kiyv, but it could slowly but surely gain territory.

Small ops is where the Russian army might be competent, and seeing it reorganize and shift strategy seems like bad news to me.

It's tricky to say for sure. Russia has already been pushing south of Izyum to encircle the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk area. This would presumably be met with a thrust out of Zaporozhye area to the north-east. If these two arms meet up, Ukraine's largest and best organized force is encircled in the east. If they dig in and fight to the death in the ruins of those twin cities, it could be another 3-5 weeks of mop up operations. The question is.... does phase 2 involve anything else? Russia pulled back from surrouding Chernigov, but not Kharkov or Sumy so far. And the north-ward prong towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk comes out of the Kharkov area. Are assaults on Kharkov and Sumy in the works? What about Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog, or Zaporozhye?

 

[StingrayOZ]

The official statement is that all own Marder IFVs are bound by NATO obligations. All owned Marders are part of active or reserve units, with possible a low maintenance reserve beyond that.

There are no disused stocks. Vehicles no longer used are typically sold off to "Battle Tank Dismantling GmbH" (owned by KMW since 2016) and are awaiting disposal with that company in Rockensußra, East Germany. Typically around 500-800 armoured vehicles per year.

This is actually useful information and am surprised it wasn't included in the news report. I didn't know germany was disposing of so many per year.

As an Australian, the other response is why not give them equipment to be soon disposed, or, even new IFV. I guess we here are a bit puzzled that such large and industrious nations don't have equipment to give on hand. Or are unwilling to give it.

Its not like Australia had large stocks of disused bushmasters awaiting disposal. It is a type in production.