The Royal Navy Discussions and Updates

[Dave H]

Musashi,

How has scottish independence been delivered a long term blow when they have had success in winning loads of seats? Over the next two years a Brown Labour Govt will throw money at Scotland as a form of bribe but if a Scot dominated Labout government isnt popular, a Tory victory at Westminster will push the Scottish even more away from the Union.

A large number of Scottish Labour MP's are anti nuclear, most SNP MP's are anti nuclear, almost all the Liberals are anti Trident and anti deterrent. Only the few Tories would actually support it. Therefore how would a Scottish Parliament made up almost completely anti trident votes possibly allow Westminster to stick Trident in Scotland??

The Lib dems fear a referendum as do most parties except the SNP, why do you think that is?? Because once opened the box cant be shut, thats why.

If they have independence, Westminster would have no sovereignity, thats the whole idea of independence!!

 

[Dave H]

Icelord,

I would think that much of the UK equipment would be too costly to split and operate by a small indepenent Scottish Defence Force. For instance we are getting 12 Nimrod MR4's, I would think the cost of those could only be carried by the E,W,N.I. So Kinloss to close and Nimrod relocated?

The SSN's and Trident would come south.

If the Scots got 4 Type 23's they would need replacing in 15 years or so, it would be easy for them to buy off the shelf, but develop a new class in viable yards? I doubt it.

I dont think it will happen within the next few years but ten years of Tory rule in the UK will push socialist scotland further away. Another Iraq or replacement for Trident would be the catalyst for the Nationalists to say "enough is enough" In my opinion anyway.

 

[Dave H]

Wills , how can you argue that Scottish independence wont happen (eventually) when you acknowlege that English an Welsh calls for independence are also high on the political agenda?, if lots want it, doesnt that make it a possibility??

The SNP have a foothold, parties will have to do deals with them. Being bigger than labour in scotland is significant for the future of the UK. I would be happy for them to go it alone but as we English are mugs, independence would come with a least a decade of subsidy to keep the Scots happy during transistion, wouldnt want the poor dears to lose health care or free university rights would we?!!

In the context of this forum though, the new situation in Scotland, with anti war labour and Lib MPs makes UK foreign adventures less likely to occur.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

How has scottish independence been delivered a long term blow when they have had success in winning loads of seats? Over the next two years a Brown Labour Govt will throw money at Scotland as a form of bribe but if a Scot dominated Labout government isnt popular, a Tory victory at Westminster will push the Scottish even more away from the Union.

Because the Labour government is at its most unpopular right now. The SNP won't have an opportunity like this again. When the Conservatives win in 2009/2010, it will mean the Labour Party won't be held responsible for whatever happens in Westminster. A lot of people voted SNP as a protest vote against Labour - it's unlikely the SNP will be able to rely upon that again.

Therefore how would a Scottish Parliament made up almost completely anti trident votes possibly allow Westminster to stick Trident in Scotland??

Because it has no jurisdiction over military affairs - it has no authority to refuse them being stationed there. Similarly Labour is still in favour of renewing Trident - I haven't heard anything to suggest Scottish Labour is wildly more anti-nukes.

The Lib dems fear a referendum as do most parties except the SNP, why do you think that is?? Because once opened the box cant be shut, thats why.

Who said they fear it? They think it's a waste of time - no poll suggests anywhere near a majority of Scots really want independence.

If they have independence, Westminster would have no sovereignity, thats the whole idea of independence!!

They can't become independent just by declaring it - it would be an act of treason for one thing.

 

[Dave H]

An act of treason??? So we dispatch the army northwards to quell the rebellion? Umm!! Should an established Parliament in scotland decide on a referendum on Scottish independence from the UK and Her Majesty there is nothing Westminster could do. If the referendum was won by the Nationlists the Union would be torn up. The Queen would not intervene even if she could, it would be accepted in Westminster and a whole host of legislation bought in to allow separation with agreement on certain issues. eg trade, free movement of peoples,defence, continuing EU membership etc etc

The SNP website outlines how it would work. If a referendum was won, reps of the Scottish Executive would negotiate with Westminster to agree an independence settlement, whilst negotiating a written constitution is drafted setting out how an independent scotland would be governed.

If you look at the voting on the trident issue, many scottish Labour MP's voted against or abstained. 15 Labour scots MP's voted against it. 6 SNP and 12 Scottish Lib Dems, meaning the majority of Scots MP's voted against replacement. Trident is not wanted in Scotland, the easiest solution is to base it in England, Devonport, Portsmouth, even Portland.

Polls by the Scotsman in 2006 said 51% want independence, but less when more devolved power is offered BUT Trident or another Iraq or a Tory government could make that more likley. It will happen, not tomorrow but within 20 years at max IMO.

Treason....love it!!!

 

[WillS]

Wills , how can you argue that Scottish independence wont happen (eventually) when you acknowlege that English an Welsh calls for independence are also high on the political agenda?, if lots want it, doesnt that make it a possibility??

I'm not going to argue that Scottish independence won't happen. I don't have a crystal ball, if I did I'd be down at the betting shop, not mucking about here

However, I think it increasingly likely that if "Scottish independence" happens it's more likely to be driven by English pressure to get rid of Scotland than Scottish pressure to be independent. And with that dynamic in play, the negotiations over who gets what would take on an entirely different flavour. I have no evidence for this other than my own observations on the quiet but pronounced surge in English nationalism that I've observed over the last ten years, a surge which is only likely to increase after the next general election, given that the most likely result seems to be a UK labour/liberal coalition government passing laws for England only with the support of Scottish MPs.

WillS

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

An act of treason??? So we dispatch the army northwards to quell the rebellion?

Dave, do you know anything about politics? You seem to be one of these armchair fools that knows nothing. Either Westminster would merely pass an act to suspend devolution, or any such declaration would be ignored.

Should an established Parliament in scotland decide on a referendum on Scottish independence from the UK and Her Majesty there is nothing Westminster could do. If the referendum was won by the Nationlists the Union would be torn up.

No it wouldn't, because legally no such referendum could unilaterally be used to break it up. It could be used as a mandate to negotiate, but if London said "no", Scotland couldn't do anything about it.

All the drivel you've mentioned is utter crap. If London honestly didn't want Scottish independence it could stop it.

Polls by the Scotsman in 2006 said 51% want independence

I'm supposed to believe one newspaper?

 

[riksavage]

The recent nationalist vote in Scotland was more a protest against Labour (Iraq war) than a serious drive for independence. Only 31% percent of Scots support total independence, the younger generation in particular are more against separation than the older generation, which does not bode well for the SNP going forward. 1 in 6 people living in Scotland are English, 1 in 112 people living in England are Scot's. Whether we like it or not we are joined at the hip!

On a brighter note the launch of the first Astute is drawing near, which will be based on the Clyde. See below:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...CFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2007/05/09/nsub09.xml

I note with interest it will be the first UK submarine not to have a conventional periscope. Utilizing a fibre optic tube - equipped with infra red and thermal imaging, which pops above the surface for three seconds, does one rotation and then feeds an image in colour that can be studied at leisure. Is this now common, how may other submarines use this technology?

 

[contedicavour]

Folks, leaving the Scottish vote aside one moment, still no news on the Queen Elisabeth carriers ? Sarkozy won the presidency in France, so I'm pretty sure the French will be doing their part of the binational deal.

cheers

 

[swerve]

Folks, leaving the Scottish vote aside one moment, still no news on the Queen Elisabeth carriers ? Sarkozy won the presidency in France, so I'm pretty sure the French will be doing their part of the binational deal.

cheers

Fingers crossed. He's previously said publicly he thinks France needs PA2, & he favours the joint CVF/PA2, so the omens are good.

 

[overlander]

France is quite clear they will build a second carrier, i hope Britain build the 2 cvf,s but i am not nothing sure, i cross the fingers too.

 

[swerve]

France is quite clear they will build a second carrier, ....

That wasn't clear until the presidential election was over, since Royal was talking about cancelling it.

 

[Dave H]

Mushashi, nice mention of foolishness,very grown up attitude to a post I must say!!

If you seriously think Westminster could ignore a decision by a Scottish Parliament that was set to devolve decision making to scotland then you are niave. As for just "ignoring" the vote, I cant think of anything more likely to push those scots of an undecided nature to total independence.

As for not knowing anything about the constitutional affairs, I would suggest you do some research. The act of union actually means that as Far as the UN membership and entry in to the EU, those organisations were joined by "Great Britain" not england or scotland, in fact some constitutional writers suggest that if scotland did become independent it wouldnt follow that it would remain in the EU, because Scotland as an entity doesnt exist, (nor does England in terms of many international agreements). The membership is by Great Britain, it is likely that Scotland would have to renegotiate membership of the EU, although Scotlands independence wouldnt necessarily break up "Great Britain". Great Britains seat on the security council is open to debate but likely to remain, minus Scotland.

The UN has many searchable pages on the net about independence, focusing on examples such as the Basque region and "what if's?", in international law the situation isnt clear, the UN wouldnt necessarily automatically recognse an independent state. The EU convention would also create a legal minefield.

Interestingly there is a conference on the constitutional angle at Aberdeen University this weekend, if i can be bothered I read the net posts of the papers and see if "treason" gets mentioned!!

No you arent supposed to believe one newspaper, but I added that the figure is lowered when more devolved powers are offered., I would prefer to believe elecion results and read the campaigns of the various parties who see independence as an issue. The scottish parliament was in my view set up to delay the inevitable, it has created english resentment and english independence calls (albeit small) but more mportantly english apathy to the question of the scots going their own way.

I would put this scenario to you. A scottish parliament with 47 SNP's get together with 17 Libs who dont want to be in Iraq. A Scottish regiment is posted to iraq and the Alex Salmon calls publicaly to withdraw scottish forces from Iraq. A motion in the scottish parliament is won by the SN and Libs. Although the troops wouldnt come home, a worrying political split would have occurred. The Sottish MP's will speak on matters of defence even if they have no real power but that still undermines the political unity surrounding the deployment of UK forces.

I think that Trident should be moved south along with the nuclear subs and the matter of independence put to bed by a referendum.

Back to ships. Blair is off soon possibly announcing tomorow when he will actually go, hopefully Brown will announce the carriers as a big industry boost under his leadership

 

[swerve]

...As for not knowing anything about the constitutional affairs, I would suggest you do some research. The act of union actually means that as Far as the UN membership and entry in to the EU, those organisations were joined by "Great Britain" not england or scotland, in fact some constitutional writers suggest that if scotland did become independent it wouldnt follow that it would remain in the EU, because Scotland as an entity doesnt exist, (nor does England in terms of many international agreements). The membership is by Great Britain, it is likely that Scotland would have to renegotiate membership of the EU, although Scotlands independence wouldnt necessarily break up "Great Britain". Great Britains seat on the security council is open to debate but likely to remain, minus Scotland....

"Great Britain" isn't a member of anything. The United Kingdom (i.e. including Northern Ireland) is. The secession of one part of any state does not affect its membership of anything, as long as there is a clearly identifiable succession from the previous state. cf. the USSR. Russia still has its security council seat. The United Kingdom of England, Wales & Northern Ireland would carry on regardless if Scotland left. Only Scotlands status would be uncertain. It would have to apply for membership of just about everything, though in many cases it would be a formality.

 

[adsH]

it would be accepted in Westminster and a whole host of legislation bought in to allow separation with agreement on certain issues. eg trade, free movement of peoples,defence, continuing EU membership etc etc


Treason....love it!!!

Are you sure it will happen, Ahm! I mean economically i only see one clear, looser, Ever heard; 'Don't bite the hand that feeds!

 

[adsH]

"Great Britain" isn't a member of anything. The United Kingdom (i.e. including Northern Ireland) is. The secession of one part of any state does not affect its membership of anything, as long as there is a clearly identifiable succession from the previous state. cf. the USSR. Russia still has its security council seat. The United Kingdom of England, Wales & Northern Ireland would carry on regardless if Scotland left. Only Scotlands status would be uncertain. It would have to apply for membership of just about everything, though in many cases it would be a formality.

Absolutely, If EU lost England it would be a major Blow! our economy is reliant more on trade with our Partners the US, rather then EU, EU benefits Access to our Financial and Pharma sector, us gone would set EU back along time.

 

[swerve]

...our economy is reliant more on trade with our Partners the US., rather then EU,

No it isn't. The USA is our second biggest trading partner, after Germany, with France third (imports & exports combined). 7 of the top 10 are EU members. We import about 7 times as much from other EU members as from the USA, & export about 4 times as much to them as to the USA. NB: The difference is due to the USA importing far more than it exports: most countries have the USA ranked higher as a destination for exports than a source of imports.

http://www.uktradeinfo.com/ (HM Revenue & Customs)

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

If you seriously think Westminster could ignore a decision by a Scottish Parliament that was set to devolve decision making to scotland then you are niave. As for just "ignoring" the vote, I cant think of anything more likely to push those scots of an undecided nature to total independence.

It's not being naive, it's legal fact. Sure there would have to be a reaction, but that doesn't mean a unilateral referendum would have to be accepted.

As for not knowing anything about the constitutional affairs...

Where did I talk about the UN?

I would put this scenario to you.

But it isn't going to happen because the Lib Dems have ruled out a coalition with the SNP. The SNP are not going to drop their pledge for a referendum - it appears they'd prefer a minority government. Equally even with the Lib Dems the SNP couldn't command a majority in the Parliament. Plus I don't think the Lib Dems would be so stupid as to let the SNP benefit in that way even if they could command a majority.

Oh, and it's 16 LDs......

 

[Systems Adict]

I've read thru your comments with interest over the last few days...

I am a Scotsman & am very proud to be so.(not that it has much to do with anything).

I find it strange to see such speculation & supposition about events that happened last week.

I feel that although speculation & 2nd guessing is a given on how things may pan out over time WRT weapons systems, equipment, military tactics / future prospects, etc. It's a different kettle of fish with POLITICAL things.

After all, here we are less than 7 days after the event & there's people from all over globe dividing up one of the oldest unified groups of nations on the planet !

This is going to be a difficult period for the UK over the next few years, with much social upheavel due to the changes of the people in power.

There will be decisions made that will not be popular & a few more that will be made to try & attempt to reverse legacy decisions made be the previous encumbants.

...& as for Scotland?

Like it or not, national pride MUST be cast aside for the sake of UNITED KINGDOM, no matter your opinion on whether the UK was correct in getting involved in the GWOT, or the Trident replacement.

However, we should get together & show a Nationalistic pride in UK, just the way the US supports itself !!

Bring on the Flag waving !!

Systems Adict

 

[harryriedl]

well astutes is counting down to lanch a lovely looking sub