The F-16 replacement of the Royal Netherlands Airforce.

Palnatoke

Banned Member
Nobody knows of course, but it would seem that the US$ steadily looses it's importance globally.
If the oil producers abandons it (as the rumour say that they have discussed ), the only key players
who wants to keep it up will be the Chinese and those the US have borrowed money from.

The Americans themselves are not that interested in keeping it up. They want to print more of them instead.
Their current deficit and their immediate bleak future, their huge international loan burden points to that
the US$ will stay reasonable low for a longer period of time.

That is a good thing for all F-35 partners.
However you think the dollar will do, there remains a significant exchange rate risc.
 

B3LA

Banned Member
Sure.
So the only solution is finding a provider that either can offer
a fixed long term exchange rate or can sell them in €.
 

IPA35

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #25
I don't think that the ELU for our old F-16's is a real option, none else is doing it and we would still have those old planes that would need to be replaced a couple of years later anyway.

And why I prefer STOL?
That has something to do with my prefered doctrine.
 

AndiPandi

New Member
In my mind this comes down to money:

Austria bought (a few) Eurofighters for a unit price of Euro 63M. This included quite extended service contracts.

...
I think that figure is way to low, at least if you trust this source:

Eurofighter’s Rough Ride in Austria (updated)


"Eventually, a grand coalition government was formed that pledged to resume negotiations with EADS, after a response from Eurofighter GmbH set Austria’s cost of cancellation at EUR 1.2 billion in return for zero aircraft. While those negotiations continued, the first Austrian Eurofighter flew, #2 was rolled out, #3-6 were in final assembly, and the rest kept advancing into partial assembly. Eventually, a EUR 1.63 billion compromise was set for 15 Tranche 1, Block 5 aircraft and support services."

Thats about € 109M per unit.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I don't think that the ELU for our old F-16's is a real option, none else is doing it and we would still have those old planes that would need to be replaced a couple of years later anyway.

And why I prefer STOL?
That has something to do with my prefered doctrine.
STOL is a capability... Therefore I am curious as to your preference in air doctrine for a country like the Netherlands. Does it revolve around being able to have the RNLAF fighters operate from roads within the Netherlands, or is the desired intent more expeditionary in nature?

-Cheers
 

IPA35

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #28
Both actually, and yes I am more focussed on old fashioned defence rather then offense but we should have some expeditionary capabilies. And a STOL aircraft has much more choices where to operate from.
A question, is it possible for an advanced F-16 to be used in such a way?
But if we want to discuss this I could create a Part 2 of my old dutch defence thread soon.
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
I think that figure is way to low, at least if you trust this source:

Eurofighter’s Rough Ride in Austria (updated)


"Eventually, a grand coalition government was formed that pledged to resume negotiations with EADS, after a response from Eurofighter GmbH set Austria’s cost of cancellation at EUR 1.2 billion in return for zero aircraft. While those negotiations continued, the first Austrian Eurofighter flew, #2 was rolled out, #3-6 were in final assembly, and the rest kept advancing into partial assembly. Eventually, a EUR 1.63 billion compromise was set for 15 Tranche 1, Block 5 aircraft and support services."

Thats about € 109M per unit.
I thnk it depends on what you include in the price, my source, FLUG REVUE September 2003: Austria signs up for Eurofighter uses both numbers side by side (albeit that's the original 18).
That puts the SAAB gripen offer (which include 20 years full life cycle costs) in perspective.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I think that figure is way to low, ...

"Eventually, a EUR 1.63 billion compromise was set for 15 Tranche 1, Block 5 aircraft and support services."

Thats about € 109M per unit.
Including spares, weapons, training, support, etc., & starting from a signed contract for more aircraft with penalties for full or partial cancellation. It may also include, like the original cost, interest charges.
 

AndiPandi

New Member
Including spares, weapons, training, support, etc., & starting from a signed contract for more aircraft with penalties for full or partial cancellation. It may also include, like the original cost, interest charges.
Never said anything else...
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
Exactly, and the price you quoted was the fly-away cost (according to your own source), but you wrote that the price included a service package.
Yes, I stand correct. The quoted amount is the fly away cost.

The numbers seems to suggest that you can get gribenNG for nearly half of that of the eurofighter.
 

longbow

New Member
Both actually, and yes I am more focussed on old fashioned defence rather then offense but we should have some expeditionary capabilies. And a STOL aircraft has much more choices where to operate from.
A question, is it possible for an advanced F-16 to be used in such a way?
But if we want to discuss this I could create a Part 2 of my old dutch defence thread soon.
Yes, the RNoAF use their MLU'ed F-16's on short runways, its part of the doctrine to spread the airforce out among austere short-field airfields should the shit hit the fan. A powerfull engine and a braking-parachute give you a STOL capability. The Norwegian F-35's will also have a braking-parachute, so you could theoretically have a STOL-capability even with the F-35A.
 

IPA35

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #35
Good to knopw, thanks.

Now I would like to have some info on the costs of the Gripen NG and of the block 60:D
SAAB offered 85 NG's for 4.8 billion for the planes (and stuff) and and additional 4.8 billion for 30 years of service.
That seems like a very reasonable price, can the F-16 block 60 beat this?
And the Gripen uses less fuel, right?


So 3 squadrons of either the Gripen NG the new F-16's should be stationed at Volkel AB, the training should in the case of the F-16 stay where it as or when we would choose the Gripen it should be placed in Sweden or back here.
Two squadrons of F-35A's should be placed at Leeuwarden AB, one squadron would have a secondary training role.

Reasonable?
In price?
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
IPA35

I have quoted what appears to be an official bid for 48 GripenNG above. Notice that it include substancial "services".

I think the main problem with gripen is that it's backed by a too small industry. There is a high risc that the plane's realistic update path is not adequate.

In regard to the F16s. IF extending the life of the F16s can make you jump a generation, so to speak, it's an obvious alternative, if not you are only postponing a problem.
 

AndiPandi

New Member
I think the main problem with gripen is that it's backed by a too small industry. There is a high risc that the plane's realistic update path is not adequate.
The Gripen NG is backed not only by SAAB but also by rather many american and british companies. For example did GE give away the two engines for the demo for free and many parts of the aircraft are bought from the shelf and are not limited to the Gripen only. Computers, HMS etc are bought of the shelf. The NG project is set up as an investment project where the different suppliers are sharing the risk with SAAB. The commitment from the Swedish government is also very solid. UK government is supporting SAABs effort in Brazil.

Its true that for the F-16 or the JSF some of the development cost for upgrades can be spread out on more customers and aircrafts but that calculation is not completely linear since there is a production cost for each engine, radar, sensor etc. Also, american military equipment tend to become very expensive quite often compared to the lean development taking place at SAAB. Some development costs can be shared by airforces flying other airplanes, for example the engine.

There is also much historic evidence that shows that a future upgrade of the Gripen wont be much more expensive (if at all) than for planes build in much higher numbers. The upgrade of the swedish A/B to C/D was 10% under budget and the flyaway cost of thoose aircrafts was not much higher than the original A/Bs. The upgrade from C/D to NG or E/F (or whatever the name will be) is not expensive either, SAAB has given several countries fixed and guaranteed prices that are not connected to how many planes SAAB will sell in total, and those prices are very competitive.
 

IPA35

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #38
I know the SAAB is very reasonably priced.

Anyone has a source on the UAE deal on the F-16E/F and it's operational costs??
 

Palnatoke

Banned Member
AndiPandi

Very interesting.

With JSF surposedly priced at 200M dollars, Gripen should have an increasing chance,
I mean, in my country paying 1.1 billion DKr for one airplane that the defense has a really hard time convincing the public that we really need, is probably not going to go down well with the ordinary man.

Though I fear that the generals and current goverment has made up their mind, so gripen's best chance is probably with the national audit and public oppinion.
 
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