The best strategy to defending Singapore Island

[koxinga]

I suspect a strong SAF suits MAF at a strategic level. There is a shared concern about the country south of Malaysia/Singapore, one that outweighs whatever occasional posturing and dramatics between the two countries.

There are sufficient levels of communications, formally, FPDA and via backchannels between the two countries and services to ensure things don't go too far when pandering to a domestic audience and de-escalate.

The one below however... I've heard one account of the period of tension during Habibie's presidency where things were very hot and what the SAF was preparing for.

 

[STURM]

I suspect a strong SAF suits MAF at a strategic level.

If you ask senior MAF officials; in private they'll tell you they welcome a strong SAF as it keeps in check a certain much larger neighbouring country; a country which has traditionally occupied a major place in Malaysia's strategic calculus.

There are sufficient levels of communications, formally, FPDA and via backchannels between the two countries and services to ensure things don't go too far when pandering to a domestic audience and de-escalate.

Both sides understand that a certain level of rhetoric, hubris and nationalistic chest thumping happens every now and then for a domestic audience and from what I've been told there indeed a lot of back channel communications. A good example of something intended for a domestic audience would be the Singaporean PM's National Day message some years ago about the situation in the Ukraine being a reminder of how smaller countries have to be vigilant and that in Singapore's case it's only a strong SAF which keeps Singapore's neighbours friendly. Viewed objectively one has to ask; is a statement of this nature really needed given that Singapore is not in a Cold War with any of its neighbours; nor in state of tensions but granted it was intended for a domestic audience.

Irrespective of any rhetoric, hubris and nationalistic chest thumping the leaders of various ASEAN countries are highly aware that a full state conflict would be highly damaging in the long run for everyone. In Singapore's case [based not only on my assumptions but talks I've had with various individuals] Singapore's leadership and defence planners are highly aware that a superior SAF might be able to solve some immediate problems in time of conflict [against neighbours which don't spend as much as Singapore on defence and who don't see the SAF as a likely opponent] but the problem is what comes after that in the long run? Winning a war doesn't permanently solve a problem but it can be the start of a much bigger and lasting one.

 

[seaspear]

Are there further plans by Singapore for the use of satellites for defence purposes?
DS-SAR satellite acquired by Singapore’s defence technology agency & ST Electronics | SpaceTech Asia

 

[OPSSG]

Information Warfare as Phase Zero Planning


1. IMHO, the above is an excellent example of information (from a Malaysian perspective) or what I consider as misinformation ops by one of many Malaysians, trying to justify NAKED lies after the fact. Years of state sponsored information warfare (like current Russian efforts in Ukraine), creates an echo chamber wit our capability to discern Malaysian political lies. I am sure, many Malaysians can come up with better lies than the Russians but I really don’t care to engage with them on these lies.

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(a) As a Singaporean, I continue to be grateful for Sultan Ibrahim & Tunku Ismail for their leadership & efforts to keep Singapore-Johore relations on an even keel during Osman Sapian’s term as Menteri Besar (before he was forced to resign). On 9 Jan 2019, Osman Sapian boarded the Marine Department Malaysia vessel Pedoman (anchored illegally in territorial waters off Tuas), in an attempt to derail the bilateral efforts to defuse the dispute in a calm manner. Osman Sapian in visiting the vessel is escalating the dispute by Malaysian choice.​

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(b) I used to advocate caring and meeting DAP or UMNO M’sian politicians halfway (both as part of the ruling coalition at the relevant time), but once the hostility cycle resumed in 4Q2018, whatever past goodwill I had for DAP in Malaysia, evaporated. DPP’s Anthony Loke reiterated Dr M’s irrational stance concerning territorial disputes regarding airspace and port limits at Johor Baru, saying “the altered port limits of Johor Bahru Port are in Malaysia’s territorial sea & it is well within Malaysia’s right to draw any port limit in our territorial sea...” IMO, his act of M’sian hostility against Singapore should not be forgotten or forgiven.​

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(c) Disinformation, corruption and racist conspiracies is part of UMNO’s current appeal but it’s come to the stage, I hope that UMNO can keep winning because they are less harmful to bilateral relations than when the spineless DAP was in power and in cahoots, with Dr M. Cleverly Dr M divided Pakatan Harapan by playing the parties against each other. He schemed to do this, and sad to say, it was so good that Pakatan Harapan itself broke down and there was a change in government. IMO, better the predictably corrupt UMNO rather than the unpredictable actions of the idiots in DAP.​

2. Thanks to decades of hostility by Dr M & his tactic of being hostile in multiple areas by creatively inventing new disputes in 2018 for his own political purpose (w/o regard to truth), there is a trust deficit at a people to people level. No matter what M’sians like claim (as the Twitter screenshot shows), I think there is some agency in the M’sian public’s approach, contributing to the deficit.

I didn't reply the last few times; including when you openly spoke about [I won't use the term 'bragg] about the SAF's ability to do various things including hitting Malaysia's power infrastructure. One would get the impression that Malaysia/Singapore are in a cold war or that there is a state of tensions which will inevitably lead to war - nothing could be further from the truth.

3. Really? I want to be respectful but things in Dec 2018 were more tense than is generally known — it is normal that the M’sians want to portray incidents as nothing but:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1070981463661785088

(a) I note with mild concern the deployment of armed M’sian men on watercraft that accompanied the intrusion of our port waters for 4 months (including escalation by M’sian choice & a collision with a merchant vessel).​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1437223051339309061

(b) IMO, the ROEs must be modified to allow for a shorter warning to shoot cycle (in the current EOF procedures). IMO, the PAP, as the ruling party, like to bullsh!t that they are strong on defence but in reality, they just don’t have the guts to act on conviction & punish hostile acts, including an intrusion of airspace on Sept-11, 2021. What’s the use of acquiring such an exotically capable SAF, if they don’t dare to use it to advance Singapore’s interests at the right time.​

Also note that if Malaysia's threat perceptions were centered ''south'' a newer fighter base wouldn't have been constructed up north near the Thai border and a sub base wouldn't have been constructed in East Malaysia thousands of KM away. Unlike the SAF which trains/focuses to fight the MAF and to a lesser extent the TNI; the MAF does not train/focus on the SAF as it has other concerns/priorities.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520679132698345473

(c) I agree there will be no war but I also note the M’sian use of grey zone swarming boat tactics to enable a M’sia politician to board in our port waters — a hostile act using armed personnel — this the SAF should no longer tolerate.​

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Singaporeans in general like to give the impression that all that has gone wrong in the Malaysia/Singapore bilateral relationship is the fault of Malaysia and Malaysia alone. We both discussed this as far back as a decade ago via PM. We discussed Mahathir and a host of other things. I'll say the same thing I did then : it's a two way street and Malaysia also has its concerns and its interests; plus the fact that no matter how one wants to spin it; no single side has a monopoly on truth or of being a good/bad neighbour...

4. I hear you — seeking areas where there is commonality of interests is the way forward for relations between Malaysia & Singapore — if we can’t have a win-win outcome, no deal is better than a poor deal. But based on accurate threat assessments, Singapore needs to protect the bridge of 4 MSRV vessels against RPGs & armour piercing rounds plus fit them for ramming — this is what I consider deterrence by denial.

5. On a more serious note, according to David Boey, the MAF was put on alert in late 1998 as politicians on both sides of the Causeway argued over the status of the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine (CIQ) checkpoint at Malaysia's railway station in Tanjong Pagar. On a less serious note, let me provide a link from a blogger Mr Brown, who shares 10 funny points (aka Top 10 list) on this issue.

6. “The security & sovereignty aspect of this country should not be compromised… if it is not properly monitored & guarded, the country’s dignity will not only be trampled on, but may even lose its rights,“ Kota Iskandar assemblyman, Pandak Ahmad said when debating Johor Budget 2023.

7. Thankfully, Singapore is not the most hated by Dr M, when he was in power. In 1992, during Dr M's first tenure as prime minister, he passed a bill in parliament to curb the privileges and powers of Malaysia’s royal families. This was following the controversial Douglas Gomez incident. Apart from stripping the rulers of their legal immunity, Dr M also introduced limits on the royals’ ability to issue pardons.

Are there further plans by Singapore for the use of satellites for defence purposes?
DS-SAR satellite acquired by Singapore’s defence technology agency & ST Electronics | SpaceTech Asia

8. Mindef’s plans of this nature are not open source.

 

[OPSSG]

Training to operate in coalition with others

1. Exercise Pitch Black 2022 has officially started! 3 weeks. 17 countries. 100 aircraft. 2500 personnel. During the exercise, a F-15SG had to use the arrestor cable that caused the landing traffic jam.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561561478985297920

2. Great job by RAAF ground crew & tower controllers on the safe recovery of the aircraft, the on-the-fly safety separation coverage.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561559850248716289

3. Meanwhile, Singapore’s A330MRTT plays a crucial safety role — by providing unscheduled refuelling for German Eurofighters (in the below) — to enable Ex Pitich Black pilots to stay in the air longer, while the runway is cleared. Bravo Zulu to the airmen involved.

4. At Ex Pitch Black 2022, the RSAF flew in a large contingent of fighters & support aircraft that includes 8 F-16D+s (capable of a SEAD role), 8 F-15SGs, 4 C-130Hs (to bring stores & spares), a G550AEW, & 2 A330MRTTs. The return of large-scale military exercises post COVID-19, is necessary to keep the sword sharp. Proper training to maintain military readiness requires participation in large-force employment training exercises like Ex Pitch Black & Red Flag. And on top of all these air force exercises, Singaporean airmen will soon be supporting a few thousand ground troops at Ex Wallaby.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540501205683621888

5. The Japanese & Koreans were past observers of prior iterations of Ex Pitch Black. But Ex Pitch Black 2022 is the first time the Germans (Eurofighters), Japanese (F-2As) and Koreans (KF-16Us) are sending fighters.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 3: Training overseas to develop capability & increase interoperability

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571967393555181569

1. Grey zone activities by neighbours & regional efforts at counter-terrorism co-operation continue to be an ongoing concern for Singapore but it is good to see the SAF training to address the high intensity threat matrix. As an example of high end war fighting training is this year’s Ex Daring Warrior — where the US Army and the SAF fire precision rockets to take out enemy targets. Repetition breeds mastery and war-winning readiness — the US Army’s 75th FA Brigade builds interoperability with the 23rd Battalion, Singapore Artillery (23 SA). More than 130 gunners from 23SA will sharpen their skills, tactics and conduct live firing at Fort Sill, Oklahoma.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570517844764545024

2. Col. Daniel Blackmon and Col. James S/O Harshad Rai Pandya Devieash, exchange mementos to highlight the partnership between the U.S. and Singapore armies. Ex Daring Warrior is one of 46 major exercises, in 10 countries, that the SAF takes part in.

3. To manage an increasingly complex security environment, 3,000 sailors and airmen from over 20 countries participated in harbour-based activities including briefings, the Fleet Commanders’ Conference prior to the Sea Phase of Ex Kakadu!

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573135255271137281

(a) During the 10-day sea phase, the participating navies conducted complex multi-dimensional naval warfare trainings against air, sea surface and underwater threats. Notably, RSS Steadfast took on the role of Surface Warfare Commander in a search and destroy mission. Singaporean F-15SGs and F-16Ds and an A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport aircraft also took part in the exercise hosted and planned by the Royal Australian Navy.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571353949214769152

(b) RSN Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Sean Wat underscored the importance of such platforms in bringing together commanders to exchange views on operating in an increasingly complex security environment, and on strengthening practical cooperation. He said, "As regional navies seek to put COVID-19 behind us, this timely opportunity to reconnect at multiple levels is invaluable, and will pave the way to strengthen partnership and build capabilities."​

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 3: Training overseas to develop capability & increase interoperability

(c) Immediately after Ex Kakadu 2022, the RAN and the RSN pivoted to the next exercise, Ex Singaroo. The RSN deployed RSS Steadfast with an S-70B Seahawk and RSS Valour, while the RAN participated with a Hobart-class destroyer HMAS Hobart embarked with a MH-60R. The RSAF's Darwin Detachment 2022 also participated in the exercise with F-15SGs F-16D+s, a G550 AEW aircraft and an A330MRTT, which provided significant opportunities for integrated sea-air training. This demonstrated that both navies are serious about increasing the level of interoperability.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575481727694540800

(d) Commander 8th Flotilla Colonel Ng Yen Meng said, "Exercise Singaroo is the mainstay exercise for the RSN and RAN. The exercise provides both navies with the opportunity to deepen professional sharing, learn from one another and strengthen our friendships."​

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(e) The 8th Flotilla ensures that Singapore's SLOCs remain open. In addition to maintaining the operational readiness of the missile corvettes, the flotilla also undertakes the integration the RSN's unmanned sea-air operations.​

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4. During Covid-19, Singapore’s military capability suffered. In an interview before he was promoted to Major Gen. the Chief of Army talks about restarting overseas military training.

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575772632300912642

(a) Following Ex Kakadu and Ex Singaroo, we see the largest iteration of Ex Trident. In Ex Trident 2022, the RAN’s HMAS Adelaide (L01) & 2 Singapore Navy LPDs [RSS Persistence (209) & RSS Endurance (207)] are taking part. The bilateral Ex Trident 2022 is held concurrently with the unilateral Ex Wallaby 2022.​

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(b) Ex Wallaby is the largest overseas exercise of the SAF (with 4,040 troops flying into Queensland, Australia), this year.​

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(c) In the future, the number of troops at Ex Wallaby will be ramped up to 6,600 (for 6 weeks). Once the expansion of the Shoalwater Bay Training Area (SWBTA) is complete (in 2024) and the adjacent Greenvale Training Area is complete (in 2028), the two areas will host up to 14,000 Singaporean soldiers (for 18 weeks) for training each year.​

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 3: Training overseas to develop capability & increase interoperability

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573680771709091841

5. During this exercise, the SAF will conduct large-scale missions to strengthen air-land-sea integration at the SWBTA. These included live-firing by AH-64D Apache helicopters, air-drop from C-130 transport aircraft, ship-to-shore exercises, deck-landing by CH-47F Chinook helicopters and replenishment serials.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571708452665430016

6. Another week of action from RSAF CH-47Fs and AH-64Ds at ‘Warriors Camp’ & Rockhampton Air Port as Ex Wallaby 2022 continues at the SWBTA. Ex Wallaby is conducted in ‘frames;’ where each frame consists of 800 to 1,500 troops ferried in by chartered commercial airliners before they are sent to SWBTA in Queensland, Australia. This annual 6 week training exercise is usually held from Sept to Oct.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572941259354017794

7. Concurrently, the SAF has successfully concluded the inaugural overseas live-firing for the Hunter Armoured Fighting Vehicle (AFV) during the autumn frame of Ex Panzer Strike at the Oberlausitz Military Training Area (OMTA). The OMTA is a 1/4 of the size of Singapore, which allows Singapore tanks and AFVs to train up to Company Level (14 MBTs or AFVs), in Germany. HQ Armour Servicemen also successfully fired the Hunter AFV’s anti-tank guided missile, the Spike LR II, at a target.

 

[OPSSG]

The same old bag of tricks, recycled

1. A former Malaysian Minister who lied (along with ex-PM Mahathir Mohamad) in 2018 to invent a few disputes with Singapore. Anthony Loke reiterated Malaysia’s stand concerning territorial disputes regarding final approach airspace over Seletar airport and port limits at Johor Baru, saying “the altered port limits of Johor Bahru Port are in Malaysia’s territorial sea & it is well within Malaysia’s right to draw any port limit in our territorial sea...” The acts of Malaysian Govt hostility against Singapore by intruding into:

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(a) Tuas port waters for over 4 months; &​

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(b) Pulau Tekong airspace on Sept 11, 2021,​

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should not be forgotten or forgiven — but it also does not mean that Singaporeans should be jumping like a jumping bean over every comment by ex-PM Mahathir Mohamad. If tensions between China, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam or Indonesia increase in the South China Sea, powers who will step-up to conduct joint air & sea patrols, can be counted in one hand. Malaysians are mistaken tt the FPDA, by itself, is an immunity idol — the status of the security relationship is impt.

2. Ismail Sabri said the Malaysian Cabinet was informed that ex-PM Mahathir Mohamad was possibly negligent in regards to the Batu Puteh claim. Mahathir decided not to proceed with the application for review and interpretation of the judgement on 11 June 2018,” Ismail adds. He notes that the government has decided to proceed with taking legal action at the ICJ to defend Malaysia’s sovereignty.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581135070378659841

3. This resulted in Singapore saying that it is prepared to “robustly defend” its sovereignty over Pedra Branca (Batu Puteh). A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs notes that the country will deal with any form of legal action Malaysia intends to pursue.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585229732630900737

4. With GE15 up coming, it looks like the Malaysian fishermen are looking for some trouble. IMO, Malaysians vote for many reasons, but the dominant pattern of framing and analysing voting has been ethnicity. This is in part because campaigns are mobilised along these lines. While ethnicity only explained 40% of voting patterns in 2018, ethnicity has more strongly correlated with voting in the upcoming 2022 round.

 

[STURM]

Such complaints by fishermen are nothing new and have occured during periods when there are no elections. For Collin Koh to suggest otherwise is nonsense. It's not as if certain powers that be have arranged for fishermen to make such claims in order to gain votes or political mileage. As has been explained before; the average voter has other more pressing issues of concern and if politicians wanted to focus on an issue to gain votes; there are other issues they can use which would actually gain them political mileage.

I can't speak for Singaporeans [many of whom have little understanding of the dynamics at play across the causeway] but for the average Malaysian a report such as this is inconsequential. The average Malaysian is focused on domestic issues; rising prices; education, good governance, etc; Singapore doesn't even enter their narrative as far as the GE goes or what is expected from politicians.

In the coming weeks there will be hundreds if not thousands of political rallies with all manner of promises and claims made; I would be very surprised if Singapore is even uttered by any politician.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 3: Defence Ministers meet & joint training

1. Singaporean Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen met Chinese State Councillor and Minister of National Defense Gen. Wei Fenghe in Xi’an, China on 18 Nov 2022 (Fri) where they reaffirmed the long-standing, warm and friendly bilateral defence relations between Singapore and China —Dr Ng is in Xi’an for a working visit at Gen. Wei’s invitation.


2. During the meeting, both Ministers expressed their commitment to strengthen defence cooperation as agreed upon under the enhanced Agreement on Defence Exchanges and Security Cooperation (ADESC) signed in October 2019. ADESC includes the following:

(a) Establishment of a regular Singapore-China Ministerial-level Dialogue and continued high-level cross-attendance at multilateral conferences and dialogues, such as Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue and the Beijing Xiangshan Forum.​

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(b) Commitment to regularise and scale up bilateral exercises and interactions across the Army, Navy and Air Force.​

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(c) Establishment of a Visiting Forces Agreement for troops participating in bilateral exercises.​

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(d) Establishment of mutual logistics support arrangement with China.​

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(e) Conduct of academic exchanges among military academies and think-tanks.​

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(f) Establishment of a bilateral hotline.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593563282295558144

3. Singapore expressed through Dr Ng, our concerns on geopolitical developments with China. Dr Ng is reassured that China recognise that their relationship with the US “is paramount for stability, and will work towards improving ties.” The ministers also agreed to resume the bilateral Exercise Cooperation and Exercise Maritime Cooperation in 2023, and looked forward to furthering cooperation in military education and academic exchanges such as study visits and Track 1.5 dialogues.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593233479898386438

3. This defence ministers meet up is in furtherance of the warm bilateral relations PM Lee and President Xi’s spoke of in the meeting on 17 Nov 2022 (Thurs) in Bangkok, prior to APEC. President Xi said China welcomes Singapore's in-depth participation in building the new development paradigm and is committed to making "high quality" a distinct feature of cooperation.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 3: Defence Ministers meet & joint training

4. At the invitation of Singaporean deputy prime minister Heng Swee Keat, Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng visited Singapore in Nov 2022. In that visit, Singapore signed 19 bilateral deals with China in a joint meeting between Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat and Chinese Vice-Premier Han Zheng to further economic ties.



5. The maiden Subject Matter Expert engagement of IAF & RSAF (Chinook & Apache pilots), was successfully concluded during the visit of IAF delegation to Singapore (15-17 Nov 22).


6. Once again, the RSAF and IAF are conducting the Joint Military Training (JMT) at Kalaikunda Air Force Station in India from 3 Nov to 14 Dec 2022, after a two-year hiatus. Due to the IAF’s concerns with air-to-air combat with Pakistani F-16s, they have a preference for DACT training with RSAF’s Vipers.

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(a) BG Lim Kok Hong said, “this year's JMT provides a valuable opportunity for the RSAF's F-16s to conduct joint combat training with the IAF's SU-30MKIs, as well as conduct complex weapons and tactics employment. JMT allows us to train together with our Indian counterparts in realistic and complex air-to-air and air-to-surface scenarios…”​

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(b) Air Mshl SP Dharkar AOC-in-C Eastern Air Command visited AF Stn Kalaikunda on 09 Nov 22 on commencement of Joint Military Exercise between the IAF and the RSAF.​

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(c) The RSAF deployed 14 F-16C/D fighter aircraft to train alongside the IAF's SU-30MKI, Jaguar, LCA Tejas and MiG-29 fighter aircraft. Since its inception in 2008, the JMT has been conducted under the ambit of the Air Force Bilateral Agreement, which was signed in 2007. Apart from the JMT, both air forces also interact regularly through visits, cross-attendance of courses and other professional exchanges.​

 

[StingrayOZ]

I think Singapore is doing quite well engaging with India and China, two obviously important countries for the region, and logical to have joint exercises with.

There is talk about Australia and China re-establishing military dialog again. Singapore I think has an important role in keeping at least the lines of communication open. When Australia and the US were shut out, it puts more pressure on these other relationships to try to keep things in a state of awareness. Any progress on some soft issues is more likely to be forged by Singapore than by AU/US..

Xi doesn't look particularly happy in the handshake, but much happier while sitting down.

Operating with the Indian air force is always great at getting a great look up close of non-western gear. Its not just good diplomacy and engagement.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 3 of 3: Defence Ministers meet & joint training

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/738735787819302912

7. As a small country, we are at the beck and call of bigger countries, like China and India — therefore, there is an attempt to strive for relevance and fairness, as these bilateral military exercises expand in scale & complexity.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597892833985187840

8. Singapore artillery is back in India for Ex Agni Warrior 2022, in Devlali, India (held from 13 Nov to 30 Nov 2022), once again. Ex Agni Warrior 2022 involved about 270 personnel from both armies. The exercise culminated in a joint live-firing exercise involving the SAF’s Light Weight Howitzer, Field Artillery Meteorological System, and the Indian Army's 155mm Field Howitzer 77B.

9. China makes more weaponry than the 10 countries of ASEAN can buy. Given the scale of China’s military production rate, the PLA will tilt the balance of power in the South China Sea (SCS). Beijing is establishing:

(a) a new political rule — always bet that US allies (within ASEAN) will hedge & seek to improve their ties with China or find reasons not to stand with the US, when matters of importance arise; &​

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(b) a long term presence in the SCS & the magnitude of military change is so large that, smaller countries in ASEAN feel concerned.​

10. Understanding that our threat matrix is evolving, to stay relevant, the SAF will IOC a Hunter AFV centric brigade, 4 Type 218SGs, 4 OPVs, 6 MRCVs, & 12 F-35Bs before 2032.

11. Increasingly, the SAF sees the urban littorals as:

(a) a chain of over 150 Natuna islands tt our 6 Formidable-class frigates, 2 Archer-class & 2 Invincible-class submarines (soon to be commissioned) can reach or strike from;​

(b) a place where NDU operators can be inserted by combat craft large (CCLs), CH-47Fs, or Type 218SGs. The insertion of combat swimmers into contested air & naval space enable the SAF to conduct deniable or explicit activities in support of conventional warfare or counter terrorism — a key part of Singapore’s sea denial capability; and​

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(c) a contested space that ASEAN cannot cope with. The SAF’s participation in Ex Trident, Ex Cobra Gold, Ex Garuda Shield, Ex Valiant Mark & Ex Tiger Balm, outside of the ADMM Plus framework, illustrate Singapore’s evolving approach to this security cooperation dynamics.​

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12. The SAF & the USMC concluded the 25th edition of Ex Valiant Mark, held from 28 Nov to 9 Dec 2022, around 850 personnel from the SAF's 7th Singapore Infantry Brigade, 3rd Battalion Singapore Guards and the USMC Marine Rotational Force Southeast Asia, I MEF participated in the exercise. 2 Singaporean AH-64Ds and 3 CH-47s supported the exercise. Other exercise elements included Subject Matter Expert Exchanges, live-firing at the Multi-Mission Range Complex, jungle training, and urban operations training.

 

[OPSSG]

Urban warfare 101 — buildings & tunnels

1. The future is urban, littoral & connected. As such, a FIBUA/CQB city being built in Queensland, Australia for the Australian & Singaporean Armies to use for urban warfare training — it has a 150 buildings. The designers have Check reviewed the German urban ops area at Schnöggersburg (with more than 520 buildings) before starting work.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640603769825112064

2. The building clusters are close together, to increase realism & the level of difficulty in training. In this city, 30 buildings are for live-fire. A fight in urban terrain means armour, sensors, remote turrets & APS will make Next Gen AFVs, like Hunter, competitive in this battle-space.

3. Both SAFTI city & this urban warfare facility have tunnels for subterranean urban warfare. Fighting with NVGs in areas like this will be a nightmare for conscripts — learning from failure in mission exercises is impt for the SAF. Pain is just weakness leaving the body.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1101327710922563585

4. Building urban warfare facilities in Australia & Singapore enable the SAF to send a brigade for exercise — this will not only stress the troops but the war planners, to up their game to prevent fratricide & facilitate passage of lines as companies push through to get to the fight. Competence is at the core of the profession of arms. This includes both:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579160711665954817

(a) the technical competence to perform the relevant task to standard; &​

(b) the ability to integrate that skill with others according to joint doctrine.​

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 2: No compromise over Pedra Branca

1. Politicians in Malaysia and Singapore have exhibited passive-aggressive tendencies. In 2018, Rais Hussin, a supreme council member of Bersatu, the Mahathir-led party that is part of Pakatan Harapan, wrote an Op-Ed that combined a conciliatory call for cooler heads with a bald-faced threat that Singapore was at risk of “pain by a thousand cuts”. Given that the ICJ delivered its judgment on Pedra Branca (or called Batu Puteh by M’sia) on 23 May 2008, it is a lie to claim sovereignty was lost when the Dr Mahathir Mohamad led Pakatan Harapan/Bersatu was in power. The case:

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(a) was lost when UMNO & BN was in power; and​

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(b) can no longer be challenged due to Article 61(5) of the ICJ Statute which states: “No application for revision may be made after the lapse of ten years from the date of the judgment.”​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602994751737049088

2. Malaysian PM Anwar said his Govt will also ask that "related consequences" are studied again so there can be more "meaningful and immediate" discussions with Singapore. This is to ensure there are no problems in the relationship between the two "friendly" countries, he added.

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(a) In Oct 2022, then PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob, as reported by Bernama, said that his cabinet was to proceed with legal action at the ICJ over a number of islands including Pedra Branca. Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) responded that Singapore stood ready to "robustly defend" its sovereignty over the island. We should speak clearly — most Singaporeans will no longer tolerate any Malaysian attempt to politicise Pedra Branca as an issue, given Singapore’s legal victory at ICJ — its is no longer disputed waters.​

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(b) Some claim that Singaporeans should not talk frankly about dangers facing Malaysia, over their continued and illogical claims over a redline, Pedra Branca or future attempts to intrude into our port waters (like they did between Dec 2018 to Apr 2019) — that Singapore will fight to protect our soverignty — so as not to frighten our friends in Malaysia.​

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(c) If the Malaysians at a Federal Govt level, on 9-11 are testing our fighter scramble response timing, by using a helicopter to intrude over the air space over Pulau Tekong, a Singapore Army BMT facility:​

Q: Are they hostile?​

To avoid any misunderstanding PM Lee Hsien Loong, has invited PM Anwar Ibrahim to lead a delegation for a visit to Singapore, soonest.​

3. IMO, fear can be a powerful Malaysian motivator and it is a very reasonable reaction, if hostilities should occur in the South China Sea over Malaysia’s oil & gas platforms there, especially when the Malaysians face-off with the PLA(N). Malaysia is in trouble and must lead in its own defence over its EEZ disputes in the South China Sea and in its security concerns over Sabah.

(a) Hopefully, more Malaysians will be as pragmatic as the Royal family in Johor, about maintaining good relations with Singapore — instead of acting to harm ties, like Osman bin Sapian or Dr M. Keeping in mind that on 9 Jan 2019, Osman bin Sapian supporting the antics of PM Dr Mahathir Mohamad, boarded the Malaysian Marine Department vessel Pedoman (anchored illegally in Singapore’s territorial waters off Tuas), in an attempt to derail the bilateral efforts to defuse the dispute in a calm & constructive manner.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605367997991751680

(b) In view of the physical changes at both Whitsun Reef and Sandy Cay (that affect the Philippines and Vietnam, more) and on 31 May 2021, a 16 Chinese aircraft formation was detected by Air Defense Center (CRC 2) in Sarawak at 1153hrs, there should be some concern. These Chinese military aircraft caused Malaysia to summon China's ambassador after these 16 aircraft flew over disputed waters (off the eastern state of Sarawak). Given China’s willingness to use coercion against India (via border incidents), I would not be surprised if Malaysia is subject to the same in future.​

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(c) Singapore should be clear about its interest to keep the peace, no matter how much Malaysian interests it needs to surrender to China. Singapore should stand ready to veto any attempt by FPDA to pivot to South China Sea issues — we should not defend Malaysia, while they remain hostile to us (as was demonstrated from Dec 2018 to Apr 2019 & again on Sept 11, 2021). Hopefully, a new Govt in Malaysia will see a change in policy towards Singapore.​

4. NDP 2022 – Highlights by Tedd Jong, show us how Singapore can be stronger together.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578068069607514114

5. At the recent UN HR vote to condemn China’s treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Malaysia abstains, while Indonesia votes against — showing the pan-Islamic solidarity is a farce in the face of China’s rising socio-economic power. During the 1990s:

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(a) Iranian officials and Hezbollah operatives were active in Malaysia, recruiting agents, fundraising, and planning attacks — a period where Singapore’s disputes with Malaysia escalated & moved into the grey zone — which reached its various high points in 1991, 1998, and 2018, as documented periods of troubled peace between Malaysia and Singapore.​

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(b) There is no dispute that an act of terrorism in Malaysia resulted in the hijacking of SQ117 and the subsequent hostage rescue by Singaporean special forces on 26 Mar 1991. Some of this covert or grey zone activity patterns may have continued. Certainly, Palestinian ‘students’ sent to Malaysia by Hamas for cyberwarfare training will increasingly be physically targeted by foreign intelligence agencies due to M’sian Govt policies.​

6. On 21 April 2018, Fadi Mohammad al-Batsh, a Hamas rocket scientist was assassinated, allegedly by Israeli agents, in Kuala Lumpur. An unnamed Western intelligence source said that Malaysia had once again ‘become a hub for Iranian activity.’ Given that:

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(a) then Defense Minister, Mat Sabu went to Iran for a visit to upgrade bilateral military ties with Iran (who is in Anwar’s cabinet in another portfolio); and​

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(b) then PM Mahathir Mohamad hosted Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in KL, and has complained that U.S. sanctions against Iran,​

Singapore must review its bilateral military-to-military ties with Malaysia to avoid collateral damage with the Americans and Australians — should the newly elected, PM Anwar Ibrahim’s govt continue down the path taken by the former PMs (aka Mahathir Mohamad & Ismail Sabri) of supporting Hamas or closing one-eye to Hezbollah’s activities in Malaysia (used as a staging ground for terror attacks in Thailand).

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 2: No compromise over Pedra Branca

7. After 25 years in waiting, Anwar Ibrahim became PM by forming a coalition — this is part of changing landscape of ASEAN. Hopefully a Anwar led cabinet will be a step change from a Ismail Sabri led cabinet (whose organising principle was Malay supremacy).

8. As Adm. Ho Van Ky Thoai, as the commander of the Paracels Battle on 19 Jan 1974 (in which 50 South Vietnamese sailors were killed by the PLA(N) — China can use armed force to occupy the entire Paracel archipelago).

9. Malaysia’s outposts in the South China Sea can be subject to the same as those of South Vietnam, one day too. Given the PLA Navy’s capabilities today, this EEZ dispute should be a source of concern, if Malaysian politicians don’t get in the way of the Malaysian navy’s already piss poor modernisation efforts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564824047896080384

10. China can shelter Malaysian criminals and kill as many Muslims as they want — not a squeak from Malaysia. I suspect that Beijing’s theory of victory over KL is that its combination of island building, carrier strike groups, manufacturing prowess, and a huge market will enable its maritime militia and coast guard to undermine Malaysia’s alleged EEZ claims and prevent new oil & gas drilling in a manner that insulate the CCP from external pressure, and arm Beijing with more tools of economic coercion, should the Malays not know their place.

11. I implore Dr Ng Eng Hen to firmly stand-up for Singapore’s core interests instead of proving to be a doormat when trying to establish relations with the new Malaysian Minister of Defence, Mohamad Hasan.

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(a) Mohamad Hasan will not respect your attempts to reach out — as a political class they only respect strength. Dr Ng must teach the Malaysian politicians that it is in their interest to respect the country you represent from strength.​

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(b) If the Singapore Govt wants support from the public for currently levels of defence spending for the SAF, then its leaders must: (i) have some self respect (and remember the Tuas intrusions); and (ii) ensure that the country is not seen as a doormat, again. Have some spine, let Malaysia prove by its actions it is not hostile.​

12. But it is Singapore’s interests is to support Johor, be it for COVID-19 test kits, oxygen for their hospitals or treated water, during the dry season in Johor (at subsidised prices) — to help Johor at their time of need.

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(a) The Malaysian chicken export ban was announced on 23 May 2022 by then PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob, restricting the export of 3.6 million chickens — this was disliked in Singapore but seen with amusement by Lee Hsien Loong — because he knows it does not work due to SFA policies (as Thailand & Indonesia moved to replace Malaysia as a source of chickens). Future Singapore support for KL’s policies at a federal level should be on a mutual benefits basis, or there should be no deal.​

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(b) The lesson in combating Malaysian conspiracy theories supporting the Russians in their Z narrative, Dr M casting shade on the MH-17 shoot down investigation, or Malaysians refusing to call Perdra Branca by its proper name — is to note that the goal isn’t to convince people whose minds are already made up — they aren’t likely to change. Rather, to try to persuade, and explain to Malaysians just how wacky and different their Malay language press in particular is, relative to anything that should count as journalism.​

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(c) Timothy Snyder in “On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century” wrote:​

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“To abandon facts is to abandon freedom. If nothing is true, then no one can criticize power, because there is no basis to do so. If nothing is truth, then all is spectacle. The biggest wallet pays for the most blinding lights.”​

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For more than a generation, many Malay politicians in Malaysia have engaged in a fact free discussion of their right to arbitrarily redraw their maritime boundaries (1979), to steal from the public purse (eg. the current Malaysian Navy LCS procurement fiasco) and they wonder why they encounter a negative response from Singaporeans (when they lie to themselves). IMO, Anwar Ibrahim, as PM-10 cannot undo all is spectacle, a method invented by prior Malaysian politicians on the topic.​

 

[OPSSG]

1. Western countries like France & Germany have expanded their military presence in the Indo-Pacific to provide counter-balance to a rising China.

2. Glad that Singapore enjoys v. good military-to-military & defence relations with France & exceptional relations with Germany.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1368929278394515456

3. Singapore may be small but we have many friends & strategic partners that are invested in the SAF’s success — which is why we train in 46 major exercises in 10 countries.

4. Hosting foreign officers at Changi Naval Base, the SAF enhances regional security by raising the bar.

5. The RSAF’s capability is hard won but we could not have done it without help from others, like the USAF & the USN.

6. Moving forward with the F-35Bs acquisition by 2026, the RSAF will be seeking to learn from the US Marines, the Aeronautica Militare & the RAF, among others.

7. On this day (24/3/2023), the SAF ushers in a new era, with 4 services (instead of 3) & a new Chief of Defence from the navy — with RADM Aaron Beng Yao Cheng sworn in. When he gets promoted next year, he will be the 1st Singaporean to hold the rank of Vice Admiral.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639228375477927937

8. Concurrent with these huge changes this week, Chief of DIS / Director Military Intelligence, BG Lee Yi-Jin spoke to over 600 participants at the 4th Singapore Defence Summit 2023.

9. Singapore resides in a region with larger & occasionally ambitious neighbours — I am speaking of Indonesia & Malaysia — ~2,680 & ~475 times bigger than Singapore, respectively. On occasion, trouble may come look for us, despite our attempts to avoid it.

 

[OPSSG]

Jianchuan zhishi’s wet dream is just a dream

1. I remind the CCP, the Russians caused Finland to join NATO. Currently, Singapore is a non-aligned nation & not an ally of the US, by choice.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1668954698764677120

2. Some suicidally bad ideas from China never die. Unlikely that Singapore’s #DIS will be asleep at the wheel. #DIS (as the 4th service of the SAF), works closely with US Cyber Command — 1 of the 11 unified combatant commands of the US DoD

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1668791930308763650

3. Jianchuan zhishi is published ~9 times a year, in Beijing. Like a ‘Ship’s Monthly Magazine’, some of its best selling magazine issues cover new naval vessels of the PLA(N). Not surprising that the publishers would have a Q-ship idea but this is another CCP own goal. Published since 1979, Jianchuan zhishi is concerned about:

(a) the pace of PLA(N) naval modernisation to contest control of the Indian Ocean;​

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(b) Beijing’s Malacca Strait dilemma & South China Sea disputes; &​

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(c) a Taiwan Straits conflict.​

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4. Accompanying Sea Security Teams (ASSeT) conduct regular uncontested boarding checks on merchant vessels transiting in Singapore's waters. Beyond ASSeT, the NDU has the combat craft large & maintains a special forces capability for contested boardings.

 

[Meriv90]

Also Italian frogman raids in WW1 and WW2 were often no return one, but when you had a superior fleet against you what other options you have?

And the results were surely paying off.