interesting CIMSEC op-ed on SCS tensions with an Artic parallel
Lessons from the Arctic for the South China Sea
Lessons from the Arctic for the South China Sea
All the Arctic participants have ratified UNCLOS.interesting CIMSEC op-ed on SCS tensions with an Artic parallel
Lessons from the Arctic for the South China Sea
unsure why ... might have to wait for one of the US members to drive by....All the Arctic participants have ratified UNCLOS.
The SCS situation is muddied by the US refusal to ratify the convention but what are the reasons for this? I haven't followed it closely enough to understand the US a reluctance which really hands China a moral advantage whether they comply with it or don't.
Mind you the US aren't signatories to the Geneva Conventions either.unsure why ... might have to wait for one of the US members to drive by....
The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea: Why the U.S. Hasn’t Ratified It and Where It Stands Today - Berkeley Journal of International Law Blog
Honestly, I don't think they were deployed there with the SCS in mind. Probably there to keep tabs on the Korean peninsula, which makes me a little worried frankly...but that's a topic for another thread.The USAF is sending 5 Global Hawk UAF from Anderson, Gaum to Yakota, Japan.
While the RQ-4 can range the SCS now This will increase their loiter time for the entire region. Will be interesting to see the PRC response.
US Air Force to deploy five Global Hawk UAVs to Japan | IHS Jane's 360
In addition commencing on 19 June 2017, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia will launch joint patrols in the Sulu Sea (off the Mindanao region) to counter threats from Islamic State group militants, Malaysia's defence minister Hishammuddin Hussein said at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.A 15 Year Perspective on Developments in the South China Sea (Post 2 of 2)
6. Last month, China also took control over Jackson Atoll, according to sources in the Philippines. An unclassified February 2016 letter from the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper to the chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, Senator John McCain, offers a broad assessment of China’s land reclamation activities and military capabilities in the South China Sea.
The letter, first published by USNI News, notes that by early 2017 China will “have significant capacity to quickly project substantial offensive military power to the region.” It also states that China will continue to pursue construction and infrastructure developments on the islands it occupies in the South China Sea.
“China has established the necessary infrastructure to project military capabilities in the South China Sea beyond that which is required for point defense of its outposts,” the letter reads.“These capabilities could include the deployment of modern fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles (SAMS), and coastal defense cruise missiles, as well as increased presence of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) surface combatants and China Coast Guard (CCG) large patrol ships.” The letter assesses that the airfield on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands is already operational and can accommodate all types of Chinese military aircraft. China has also installed military radars in the Spratly Islands, although there is no evidence of the deployment of SAMS to any of China’s Spratly outposts. “However, China’s mobile SAMS are field-deployable and do not require fixed, prepared sites,” according to the letter.
7. Therefore, I would say that China has achieved its goals in round 1 (in the period from 2012 to 2016) with regard to its prior deployment oil rig in disputed waters off Viet Nam. China's highly effective use of 'white ships', as strategy to manage its maritime disputes with its South China Sea neighbours and current round of island building in the South China Sea, results in a win for China without the need to fire a single shot.
8. Coupled with the December 2015 deployment of US P-8 Poseidon to Singapore, the number of US military assets proximate to the South China Sea is increasing incrementally. This will hopefully reduce the chance of miscalculation by one party until round 3 in the 2022 to 2026 time frame, when new naval and air power capabilities will be introduced by both the US and China. By that time, the US Marines, USAF and the USN would be well on their way in recapitalising their forward deployed fighter (F-35A/B/C), tanker (KC-46A), long endurance MQ-4C Triton and maritime patrol aircraft (P-8A) fleets. Likewise the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, the ROKAF, the RAAF and the RSAF would have started operating F-35s at that time, over and above an increased pace for developments in maritime domain awareness.
9. Beyond the respective FPDA navies providing an enduring naval presence, the recent additions and announced plans for the RAAF (Super Hornets, the addition of 12 Growlers, Wedgetails, 7 A330 MRTTs, the upcoming acquisition of P-8As, along with the MQ-4C Triton combo for maritime domain awareness and so on) and RSAF (an increase of the number of F-15SGs to 40, G550 AEWs, Fokker-50 MPAs, along with the Heron-1 UAVs for maritime domain awareness and upcoming acquisition of 6 A330 MRTTs, and so on) the combat power available in theatre and force multipliers of these two air forces to boost to the capabilities of the FPDA, to be superior in any fight for control of the air, in preparation of the upcoming round 2 in the 2017 to 2021 time frame (who have the option of operating out of air bases in Butterworth or Singapore). This will be of interim comfort to a budget constrained RMAF, who have limited ability to make new air power related acquisitions in the next few years.
Unbelievable. So difficult not to get emotional over this. I wonder if the Vietnamese discussed the issue with the US first?An interesting development in the SCS China turning up the screws, interesting to see what develops out of this.
Vietnam halts South China Sea drilling 'after Chinese threats'
From here, they just need to reach the US West Coast, India, European Russia, UK & France. Their SLBMs probably already have the needed range with single/lighter warheads. For the PRC, the deep waters of the SCS is even more "strategic" than for others now voicing their concern!China’s future deployment of longer-ranged SLBMs within this reshaped maritime environment could facilitate global nuclear deterrence patrols from within the SC Sea.
The NK & SC Sea issues are interconnected- both based on how US-PRC relations evolve. Vietnam & ROK relations are now closer than NK–Vietnam relations.While there was an element of consensus and growing cooperation on the North Korean issue, the same couldn’t be said about the South China Sea disputes. Indeed, Asean, a group which operates on a consensus basis, looked as divided as ever given China’s deep relations with countries such as Cambodia and increasingly warm ties with the Philippines, the current rotating chairman of the regional body. ..Crucially, the communiqué also mentioned ..other external powers such as Japan, Australia and India, which have or are planning to ramp up their naval footprint in the area. ..implicitly criticized ..the US, for trying to restrain Beijing’s assertiveness in the area through so-called freedom of navigation operations. As such, the ..meeting was mostly clearly a diplomatic win for China and loss for those who hoped the regional grouping would develop a strong and common stance on the disputes.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/...sea-military-buildup.html?partner=rss&emc=rssIndonesia, Long on Sidelines, Starts to Confront China’s Territorial Claims
By JOE COCHRANESEPT. 10, 2017
Jumping in late on this, but primary reason the US hasn't signed UNCLOS was mainly the International Seabed Authority; when it was submitted to Congress, someone thought they could make money off deep seabed mining and that the US would be best positioned to do so, so we wouldn't sign (there is also some a perpetual concern about losing sovereignty to supranational courts in disputes) . Developments in technology have made it less relevant since then, yet the stricture remains.unsure why ... might have to wait for one of the US members to drive by....
The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea: Why the U.S. Hasn’t Ratified It and Where It Stands Today - Berkeley Journal of International Law Blog
The US is a signatory to the GC itself, albeit not to the Additional Protocols I and II (it is to AP III). Though interestingly and really off-topic, but hey, why not, a lot of Supreme Court rulings related to the War on Terror (Hamdan especially) probably make a lot of the objections to AP I OBE at this point.Mind you the US aren't signatories to the Geneva Conventions either.