Sinking an Aircraft carrier

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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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how difficult would something like this be? I'm just wondering this, because the same source that said the Song incident happened also claimed that Song was at the right place due to China's ISR rather than being informed which route Kitty Hawk was taking.
You're talking about a passive event. The USN doesn't need to hide any CTF, in fact its more interested in having the PLAN know where and where her main groups are to demonstrate will and intent and a desire to deploy on her own terms.

I can think of any number of wargames where the CTF was "lost" to the attacking force - and that was in a proscribed warfighting area.

There is a vast difference in what happens in real life and what comes on the internet. Would I put my money on the escorting nukes knowing that the PLAN was trying to spook the task force? I think so.

Look at the Andamans, the PLAN were tagging an Indian sub and were oblivious to the fact that they were being hacked by a nuke.

Will the PLAN be effective in 10 years with more training and bluewater exp? Yes. But the USN is certainly not going to stay static - and every UDT I've been to indicates a desire to change their mode of operation and take the gloves off.
 
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McTaff

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You're talking about a passive event. The USN doesn't need to hide any CTF, in fact its more interested in having the PLAN know where and where her main groups are to demonstrate will and intent and a desire to deploy on her own terms.
Yup.

Part of having a CTF is not only the ability to project real military combat power, but also having the ability to project (less tangible and seemingly un-real) political power. Plopping your CTF near to someone has many possible meanings, some subtle and some not, which are then amplified through foreign policy and diplomatic communications.

If you are noisy about where you are putting it, and remain open, friendly and happy to the de facto neighbours, then you are telling them that you are showing them you are ready to help them if need be, or stop them from doing anything silly. You're telling them that you want them to know that you are there in case they need you. You're also telling them that you trust them.

If you aren't so friendly, but are plenty noisy, then you are telling them that you have a real parcel of power that just might be there in case of anything developing. You're telling them that you don't care that they know. Depending on the force of which your diplomatic channels are working, you could be telling them almost that you're thumbing your nose at them, and daring them to do something about it.

There are so many different meanings; this is just two. It depends on what the status is of any negotiations, of any deals/trades/agreements, of peace talks, of summits regarding anything from human rights to environmental to resource management.

A CTF is more than just a moving airfield with pointy planes on it; it is a political tool.
 
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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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A CTF is more than just a moving airfield with pointy planes on it; it is a political tool.
I think thats what gets ignored in the "blood rush". Some of Mahans (and to some extent Clauswitz) view still holds true today as it did then.
 

Izzy1

Banned Member
I think thats what gets ignored in the "blood rush". Some of Mahans (and to some extent Clauswitz) view still holds true today as it did then.
I'm intrigued GF - We've seen the end of the Battleship - In your opinion, could the long range UCAV - or maybe even a submarine-launched variant, one day see the end of the Aircraft Carrier?

Will the CVF dissapear with the advance of global-reach missile technology - or will someone always want the power projection symbol?

A Fascinating subject.
 
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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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I'm intrigued GF - We've seen the end of the Battleship - In your opinion, could the long range UCAV - or maybe even a submarine-launched variant, one day see the end of the Aircraft Carrier?

Will the CVF dissapear with the advance of global-reach missile technology - or will someone always want the power projection symbol?

A Fascinating subject.
Predicting the futre is a sure fire way to lose your money on a bet. ;)

But. if you take a Buck Rogers look at the future

1) The US has already done a 21st century UCAV launch via USS Florida in Ex Silent Hammer
2) There's already discussion about combination manned/unmanned strike assets for carriers
3) Full combat UCAVs cost almost as much as a baseline F-16, and are almost the same dimensions. So benefit has to come from issues of flexible capability rather than volumetric gains (ie the assumption that you can stack more UCAV/TUAVs in the carrier, so it has more "throw"

I guess the other way to look at it was that in the cold war and (even not so long ago) people from basically "Carrierless countries" derided Carriers. They then decided to get their own. eg The russians have announced a somewhat ambitious plan to get back into the bluewater business, and have said that they intend to have the 2nd largest carrier fleet in the world (6 platforms) by 2020-2025. China obviously sees that one way to provide presence and persistence over her long term resource points offshore, will be to have a carrier centric fleet. Carriers in the PLAN aren't about adding punch to defence of the homeland - its a political and tactical projection and persistence asset.

In the case of the USN, what they demonstrated in Silent Hammer was that any VLS or PLS now has the platform potential to launch an unmanned aerial asset - and that means that its not just subs that will be able to deliver TUAV's UAV's UCAV's to the theatre or region of interest, it also means that the skimmers can mix'n match as well.

The next 10 years will be interesting - to say the least
Precision weapons (and lets assume ballistic) don't have persistence, and persistence is one of the keys to the fight, so from my own personal perspective, I can't see Carriers going the way of the dodo yet.
 

McTaff

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Predicting the futre is a sure fire way to lose your money on a bet. ;)

But. if you take a Buck Rogers look at the future

The next 10 years will be interesting - to say the least
Precision weapons (and lets assume ballistic) don't have persistence, and persistence is one of the keys to the fight, so from my own personal perspective, I can't see Carriers going the way of the dodo yet.
Carriers are a pretty solid way of achieving Air Superiority, which is something you can't reliably achieve with any other floating asset, AEGIS or no. You can then use that Air Superiority to limit or deny use of just about any land, sea, water, space in that area.

Things like subs and UAV of any sort can potentially provide surveillance and strike, but not a solid projection of power like this.

There are two theoretical weapons I could see that will surpass the power of a carrier, assuming that we go years into the future.
Number one is Star Wars-like satellites and space stations with big green lasers, and ground comms to UAV / submarines / surface assets.
Secondly, a sure-fire way of negating their utility with broad-scale high-power EM warfare.
Both are fanciful at the moment, but they'd allow a small surface asset to effectively 'borrow' firepower from a remote asset, or surpress the usefulness of anything the enemy can come near it with.
 

Transient

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1) The US has already done a 21st century UCAV launch via USS Florida in Ex Silent Hammer
UCAV launched from the Florida? But isn't the only sub-launched UCAV the Cormorant, which was on the drawing board and is now zero funded?
 

Titanium

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After going through the pages it seems, the only carrier targeted is USS, and the defense more often than not is the depth of US power brought on on any offending nation.


Can we have a discussion on sinking carrier, with out involving US or any of its capability brought in. We have so many navies having carrier, russia, uk, france, India, spain. So can we role play sinking any or all one by one?
 

gf0012-aust

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UCAV launched from the Florida? But isn't the only sub-launched UCAV the Cormorant, which was on the drawing board and is now zero funded?
The only promoted UCAV concept is Cormorant

The USS Florida trials were done in Ex Silent Hammer as she was the SSGN proof of concept "mule" prior to being pulled for fitout and conversion.

The Naval Sub League had a Conference in 2005 where parts of the 2004 Exercise were discussed.
 

Transient

Member
The only promoted UCAV concept is Cormorant
I'm sorry, but I find it possible to read your sentence a couple of ways so I'll clarify again. By 'promoted' I take it you mean Cormorant the only publicly released sub launched UCAV concept? So that means there are other UCAV concepts existing whose details are not released and which are actually further along in testing?
 

Firehorse

Banned Member
Well, let's clarify a few things:
As long as acronyms have all the correct letters their meaning isn't lost- I don't worry about being 100% correct;
the PRC recently demostrated that ASATs can be done by BMs & laser interference instead of killer SATs;
in the 1st Gulf War, CSGs had to stay out of the Persian Gulf thanks to the mine threat, and had to use land based tankers to reach Kuwait & Iraq;
during India-East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) war the US tried to intimidate the Indian government, but avoided a possible clash with IN carrier- i.e. that CBG was mission killed by the mere presence of an opposing CBG;
and when
three Soviet aircraft carriers, the Kiev on July 18, 1976, the Minsk on February 25, 1979, and the Novorosiisk on May 16, 1976 [went into Med. Sea].. The Soviet ships posed a formidable threat to the United States Sixth Fleet.
http://www.ahiworld.com/070202_letter1.html
All of the above shows that, as mighty as they are, CBGs/CSGs are not invincible or invulnarable. Even if the US knows about drone/supersonics threat that by itself isn't going to dimish it. No, in many scenarios carriers are useful and should not be scrapped right away, just like those army attack helicopters- but they have to be used prudently. IMO, sooner or later one of these behemots will be crippled- just like those battleships in the early XX century!
 

gf0012-aust

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Well, let's clarify a few things:
As long as acronyms have all the correct letters their meaning isn't lost- I don't worry about being 100% correct;
the PRC recently demostrated that ASATs can be done by BMs & laser interference instead of killer SATs;
Are you being serious? Their own satellite, on a predicted cycle, it's only intervention and control being manouvre of entry (not avoidance) and on a decaying orbit that is known? Thats not remotely comparable to killing the right satellite at the right orbit with free abandon.

Was it an interesting effort? Of course. Does it indicate latent capability? Yes - to some extent. Does it inidicate the ability to kill satellites that are in the outer orbit layers (and which are the critical ones for C5ISR). No

You do realise that up until now that there has been no need to include counter systems to lasers - but the solutions do exist and early generation solutions are already on some platforms. Do you seriously think that they won't be installed on future satellites as the older ones cycle down (they don't stay up there forever - hence the chinese training shot at their own asset)


in the 1st Gulf War, CSGs had to stay out of the Persian Gulf thanks to the mine threat, and had to use land based tankers to reach Kuwait & Iraq;
and thats a smart decision when one considers that the USN failed miserably to retain any useful saturated response to mines because it wasn't high on their own radar screen of things to have and do. 16 years later that has changed.

why in heavens name would you expect a carrier to stay around an area thats equivalent to a bathtub? The fleet was there to send a message. It wasn't there to fight a war. for example during the cold war, The Med was referred to as "An American lake" by the Soviets. The scale of firepower relative to the time was enormous.

Understand the basics. Carriers to do no go close to land to deliver the fight until SEAD/DEAD has been achieved. When and if they are in viewing range of the coast, or within the landbased response range its to send a message - its not to take up the fight.

during India-East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) war the US tried to intimidate the Indian government, but avoided a possible clash with IN carrier- i.e. that CBG was mission killed by the mere presence of an opposing CBG;
This one is raised all the time as an example of Carrier vulnerability. What is does is hilight the influence of political decision over tactical - it does not demonstrate threat capability. Again, are you going to say to me that the Indian Ocean Fleet (although the junior fleet in the USN) was tactically intimidated by an oposing force that was 1/4 of its capability in firepower? Good grief, the opposing fleet was tagged by nukes for weeks. They could have at any time, if they decided that war was an option, sink those assets. On top of that, the US had 2.5-3 times the sensory reach and were able to extend the battlespace management by a similar amount. The Indian fleet had nowhere near any of that capability. The response and manouvre issues need to be looked at realistically - not in the context of some mythical force on force contest where one navy was "out butted" by the other. If it had been a decision to actually go to war the US carrier would have been a 2nd stringer. The US subs would have done the fighting - and no offence, the russian ASW systems and ASW systems the IN had at the time were woeful.

Don't confuse the political with the tactical.

All of the above shows that, as mighty as they are, CBGs/CSGs are not invincible or invulnarable. Even if the US knows about drone/supersonics threat that by itself isn't going to dimish it. No, in many scenarios carriers are useful and should not be scrapped right away, just like those army attack helicopters- but they have to be used prudently. IMO, sooner or later one of these behemots will be crippled- just like those battleships in the early XX century!
Nobody is saying that Carriers are invincible, but the arguments used to say how vulnerable they are clearly demonstrate to me a serious lack of forethought and almost zero appreciation of how complex and difficult it is to deal with them - especially when they're on a warfooting.

You reinforce my argument about comprehension when you raise the issue of the Apache attack helos. Why did they get destroyed so easily? - because they ignored their own doctrine on tactical deployment. If you don't use the assets properly you lose them.

As soon as people mumble about how supersonics (eg) will kill a carrier my eyes glaze over as it seems to me that there is a complete absence of comprehension about what defensive layers exist to deal with cruise missile threats.

There is often a complete absence of appreciation of what logistics are required to be in place as well as issues of placement, geography, defensive systems etc... when these discussions occur.

Sure, of course one day a Carrier will get hit and be lost (the americans assumed that they'd lose close to 25% in the first week of a shooting war with the Soviets) - but who in the world today has even remote tactical comparability to the Soviet Navy and Air Force? No one, nada, zip, zilch. And that immediately means that there are issues of presence, platforms, persistence, projection that fail to be achieved.

The article you quoted is a letter to the editor (ie, you or I could write the same letter and not be regarded as experts) - it is replete with errors - do you want me to respond to the errors of fact?
 
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funtz

New Member
So much talk on China and he Anti Sat tests, it is very hard to gauge the method they adapted,
if it was a direct intercept course of the missile with the satellite it is still not a cost effective way of doing things, the combined speed of the missile and the satellite gives a very narrow window of time where the interception can be made with foreign satellites that will include even more unknowns and require some level of accuracy (will it be easier to just mine the orbits?).

USN and the carrier groups, these are expensive things, i doubt if tests to make sure the system works against submarine, surface or aerial threats of different nature (subsonic stealthy, supersonic saturation) are not carried out. The soviets must have worked on defeating these defenses.
And, as has been said, the soviets are no more.

its highly unlikely that a missile/torp (what ever type from what ever platform) will be able to do what the topic mentioned, its equally unlikely that they cease to be a threat to every thing under the sun.

However the USN seems to be the only force with a credible number and type of aircraft carriers that are accompanied by the required naval vessels, in case these come into picture i doubt they will work alone and on a days notice, there is the question of the rest of the military that will come into the picture. Is it wise to narrow the question a carrier group with out considering rest of the picture? i mean the billion dollar bombers etc.


As for the 1971 incident
© Naval War College Press
Vice Admiral Swaraj Prakash (Retd.), NCC Class of 1965

on December 15th, late in the evening, the BBC announced the entry of the 'Big-E' task force in the Bay of Bengal.

As the day dawned, BBC broadcast amplified its earlier report: that having entered the Bay of Bengal from the Malacca Straits, the U.S. task force had proceeded west instead of going north to Chittagong.

one of the foreign celebrities that visited India was the renowned naval leader Admiral S.G. Gorshkov, Chief of the Soviet Navy. During his visit to Bombay he came onboard INS Vikrant. I had known the Admiral well earlier during my tenure in Moscow as the Indian Naval Attaché. The Admiral congratulated me and asked, "Were you worried about a battle against the American carrier?" He answered himself: "Well, you had no reason to be worried, as I had a Soviet nuclear submarine trailing the American task force all the way into the Indian Ocean."
I thought to myself, it is not easy to convert a cold war into a hot war. Cold war is brinkmanship and only posturing. When the chips are down, you do not play cat and mouse games but come prepared to hit hard to vanquish your adversary.
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NAVY/History/1971War/Games.html

need I say more BBC seems to have a better idea than the Indian navy back then about the location of the so called Big E carrier group.

And the situation was, as said by the old timer in the article, of posturing. It is very strange to consider that in any respect as an example of aircraft carrier maneuvers during hostile times in the present scenario.

The nature(doctrine/resources) of US military must have changed from the soviet times.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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The nature(doctrine/resources) of US military must have changed from the soviet times.
remember in the days of the cold war the USN use to engage in what was termed "hacking the shad" ie, every russian boomer was shadowed in case they needed to be slotted if they were about to launch, and every nuke was shadowed that was near a fleet. everyone was shadowing everyone. ;)

Adm Gorshkov was one of the admirals that deserves considerable respect - certainly he is one of the military leaders and influences of the 20th Cent

As for the issue of USN changing its tactics, they have, and so did everyone else once they thought the Cold War had finished. So everyone basically degraded their asw after the end of the cold war - and that included skimmer as well as aviation assets. ASW aircraft took up ISR roles, and ASW extended battlespace management was fundamentally removed as there was no longer any need to worry about Soviet nukes trailing the fleets.

What has been apparent (to me anyway) is that every UDT Conf I've attended since 2003 has shown that the USN has recognised that the ASW attitude of old needs to be revived - and that is translating into technology changes, training changes and doctrine changes. The attitude in USN is certainly different to the politicians.

Things are changing again, the attention paid to new ASW technology is clearly apparent, and certainly the first thing that USN is interested in with Australia every Nov (when they do their regular tech visit) is access to and follow up on ASW, ident and hypersonic tech.

The bottomline for all to remember is that tech only gets you so far - its training and smarts that carry the day.....
 
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funtz

New Member
remember in the days of the cold war the USN use to engage in what was termed "hacking the shad" ie, every Russian boomer was shadowed in case they needed to be slotted if they were about to launch, and every nuke was shadowed that was near a fleet. Everyone was shadowing everyone. ;)
Adm Gorshkov was one of the admirals that deserves considerable respect - certainly he is one of the military leaders and influences of the 20th Cent
Precisely, from whatever is available to outsiders like me, it is likely that the USN knew what was trialing them during the cold war however that is that, any hostile moves towards the sub trailing them might have triggered a far grater chain of events.
Similarly the Russians might have known that their sub was in turn as you put it, being hacked and the knowledge that their is littlie to do except evade them that can be done, its all kind of funny now, must have been very scary back then.

The events of the previously sighted example of the 1971 situation throw some light on the previously stated comments of an aircraft carrier group/TF being a political tool, neither the USN was here to engage the IN nor the Russians were actually going to do something about it, and all of the sides involved seem to have known these things, life as they say beats all fiction.

As for the issue of USN changing its tactics, they have, and so did everyone else once they thought the Cold War had finished. So everyone basically degraded their ASW after the end of the cold war - and that included skimmer as well as aviation assets. ASW aircraft took up ISR roles, and ASW extended battle space management was fundamentally removed as there was no longer any need to worry about Soviet nukes trailing the fleets.

What has been apparent (to me anyway) is that every UDT Conf I've attended since 2003 has shown that the USN has recognised that the ASW attitude of old needs to be revived - and that is translating into technology changes, training changes and doctrine changes. The attitude in USN is certainly different to the politicians.

Things are changing again, the attention paid to new ASW technology is clearly apparent, and certainly the first thing that USN is interested in with Australia every Nov (when they do their regular tech visit) is access to and follow up on ASW, ident. and hypersonic tech.
Well i imagine the obvious reasons to engage in what seems (to me as a complete outsider to the events) as a very complex art of ASW of the previous levels (as mentioned by you), are more than Iranian or Venezuelan Navies.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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Pulled from Bubbleheads Blog (I note Galrahn gets a mention :D ) (Bubblehead is an ex submariner)

----------------------------------

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Groundhog Day For Submarine "Breaking" News



Remember the story from last year about the Chinese Song-class submarine surfacing in the vicinity of USS Kitty Hawk? Well, it turns out a reporter from the Daily Mail in the UK did as well (he was probably looking up "what happened this week in history in 2006" in hopes of finding a story he could write quickly), and by the simple technique of saying the event was "recent" he started a blogswarm of fair-to-middlin' proportions. Even UPI picked up the story without adding any embellishing information. While various commenters in the forums -- as well as Vigilis and Galrahn at their own blogs -- have pointed out that the incident came to light in November 2006, the posts at Hot Air and Slashdot are generating lots of discussion (almost 400 comments so far at the last link).

While we're talking about it again, it's worth reiterating the main lessons learned from the whole incident:
  1. Any submarine of even modest capabilities can get close to a carrier in peacetime,
  2. Any submarine that surfaces near said carrier almost certainly isn't doing it because he wanted to,
  3. It's important to give the U.S. Submarine Force more money to help it guard against the Chinese submarine threat, and
  4. Submariners are really cool, and you should buy them a beer whenever you see one.
 

SuperSixOne

New Member
If I recall correctly the U.S. Nuked some aircraft carriers after ww2 and they held up allot better than originally planned. This task is probably more difficult than you guys think, especially the modern carriers such as the Nimitz class or CDG.
 
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