Should Pakistan Export Agostas ?

[dabrownguy]

Hope you don't mind me asking but what did the Indian Navy use to sniff out the PLAN subs? Il-38 Mays? Sea Kings? Or the Indian Kilos?

 

[mysterious]

I think it is useless for the moment to discuss if Pakistan should look to export Agosta 90Bs because it first needs to give its own navy that edge which is badly needed.

Just three Agostas don't really sound that effective against Pakistan's eastern rival's recent naval acquisitions. Atleast 6-8 would pack more of a punch in PN's offensive capabilities along with acquisition of atleast 10 major surface combatants.

PS: I think this thread should be merged with the existing Pakistan Navy owing to similarity of content. Thnx

Admin - It's a specific singular issue and can stay separate.

 

[tphuang]

in general terms re the Modified Agosta 90, yes. my principle job is acoustic warfare. as such I know the data for all the subs in this region - and no, I'm not going to publicly throw numbers on the table.

That's cool

At a sig management level the Agosta90 is miles ahead of the export kilos. get in close and you have a better chance of killing - get in close and the reaction time for defences is reduced - and usually in orders of magnitude.

That's fine. But my personal view is that view better AShM and torpedoes, it negates the disadvantages.

Yes, By numerous ASW participants in RIMPAC 2002 - 2004. It's been a topic of discussion at a number of conferences I've attended recently. Thats where the "kelvinator" nickname originated from - sailors in DF-31 (the principle USN ASW Squadron)
Also the fact that the Indian Navy has been tagged by a pair of Kilos in the Andomans Nicobars for the last 12 months. Unfort one was damaged during last years Tsunami - so that effectvely leave s one PLAN sub with historical awareness of the region.

sorry, I wasn't aware that a PLAN kilo actually got damaged in the tsunami. Or are you talking about another PLAN sub that was damaged?

A suggestion. If the US/RN/RAN were able to tag russian subs traversing from Vladivistok, if the Sth Koreans, Taiwanese and Japanese were able to pick up the "Guam" stalker from the moment it left port as it did it's pacific tour last year - what chance do you think a Yuan has (with a noisier footprint)

A couple of things. My mention of Yuan was in respect to its capability vs Agosta 90B not that it cannot be detected by USN. Secondly, how fast were the Russian subs traversing? I thought if a SSK is moving under 5 knots, it's almost impossible to detect.

A slight rider to my comments (and don't take this in the wrong way as it's a statement of observation and not directed at you)

Whether you choose to believe me is inconsequential. But responses for any post should be judged on the quality and calibre of information given over time by a poster. There are some posters who are prone to talk up numbers and data due to issues of national pride - and the quality of response is therefore adversely effected and accepted. At the end of the day we are all judged on consistency, calibre, quality, reliability, demonstrated knowledge and depth of expertise. Not everyone will always believe you or I - and thats fine as I don't proffer responses to seek converts to my views, assessment, analysis etc...

slightly hurtful, but you seem to know what you are talking about, so I will give you the benefit of doubt.

Actually, if you don't mind, I have a lot of questions about sonar and such that I'd like to ask. I'm not sure if I can pm you or email you on them?

 

[gf0012-aust]

slightly hurtful

that wasn't my intent, so I apologise if you took it that way. It was a comment in general.

 

[aaaditya]

Hope you don't mind me asking but what did the Indian Navy use to sniff out the PLAN subs? Il-38 Mays? Sea Kings? Or the Indian Kilos?

of the south african coast ,they were tracked by the tu142's and the images of the ship were taken.

 

[aaaditya]

by the way guys can someone tell me what is the load out of the pakistani navy agosta-90b's(how many missiles/torpedoes that are carried and how the load out is divided for a routine patrol mission),also can someone tell me what is the sonar system equipping the agosta90b(wether it is a thales/signaal system)?

last year there was a new article stating that china was looking to acquire a signaal designed hitech sonar system,does pakistan have any plans of acquiring a system from signaal(it is called as the magnetic sonar)?

 

[tphuang]

that wasn't my intent, so I apologise if you took it that way. It was a comment in general.

btw, I was wondering how does the improved Song with the new combat systems, seven-blade propeller compare to kilo subs?

 

[Schumacher]

...............

Also the fact that the Indian Navy has been tagged by a pair of Kilos in the Andomans Nicobars for the last 12 months. Unfort one was damaged during last years Tsunami - so that effectvely leave s one PLAN sub with historical awareness of the region.


A suggestion. If the US/RN/RAN were able to tag russian subs traversing from Vladivistok, if the Sth Koreans, Taiwanese and Japanese were able to pick up the "Guam" stalker from the moment it left port as it did it's pacific tour last year - what chance do you think a Yuan has (with a noisier footprint)

Some things don't need to be spelled out.

A slight rider to my comments (and don't take this in the wrong way as it's a statement of observation and not directed at you)

Whether you choose to believe me is inconsequential. But responses for any post should be judged on the quality and calibre of information given over time by a poster. There are some posters who are prone to talk up numbers and data due to issues of national pride - and the quality of response is therefore adversely effected and accepted. At the end of the day we are all judged on consistency, calibre, quality, reliability, demonstrated knowledge and depth of expertise. Not everyone will always believe you or I - and thats fine as I don't proffer responses to seek converts to my views, assessment, analysis etc...

Have been reading the forum for a while but this is my first post.
Have found your posts to be most informative.
Abt the Guam 'stalker' U mentioned, wasn't it the old Han nuclear sub that got into Japanese water on its way back & prompted a protest from Japan ? I think even the Chinese admits the Han is one of the noisiest subs around. How does the fact that it was detected indicate anything abt the detectability of Yuan which I believe is China's latest model SSK.
If indeed the 'Guam stalker' U referred to was a Han, it's a shock to me that the Yuan is noisier than a Han as U said, unless I misunderstand your meaning of 'noisier footprint'.
I believe Yuan is still very early in its evaluation stage with at most 2 boats built. I'm surprised the US or its allies have already detected & collected data on them. The Chinese will not be happy if indeed it's true.

 

[Schumacher]

Have been reading the forum for a while but this is my first post.
Have found your posts to be most informative.
Abt the Guam 'stalker' U mentioned, wasn't it the old Han nuclear sub that got into Japanese water on its way back & prompted a protest from Japan ? I think even the Chinese admits the Han is one of the noisiest subs around. How does the fact that it was detected indicate anything abt the detectability of Yuan which I believe is China's latest model SSK.
If indeed the 'Guam stalker' U referred to was a Han, it's a shock to me that the Yuan is noisier than a Han as U said, unless I misunderstand your meaning of 'noisier footprint'.
I believe Yuan is still very early in its evaluation stage with at most 2 boats built. I'm surprised the US or its allies have already detected & collected data on them. The Chinese will not be happy if indeed it's true.

GF, just to clarify this is not abt not believing U as mentioned in your comment. Just want to say that in case that's the reason why my post is being ignored if at all. I just want to clarify abt the Yuan & Han part. Thks.

 

[gf0012-aust]

GF, just to clarify this is not abt not believing U as mentioned in your comment. Just want to say that in case that's the reason why my post is being ignored if at all. I just want to clarify abt the Yuan & Han part. Thks.

In actual fact I was avoiding answering some of it. I'll give an oblique answer though.

The PLAN typically operates its subs in pairs. One new sub and one old sub together. One acts as a guard to the first (kind of obvious which one)

The USN for 45 years was able to monitor all the traffic coming out of Russias North Western ports - in fact ever since Cuba - the Russians never had any idea, and none of the "great" US spies like Walker knew that as well.

Ditto for Vladivostok. Both Murmansk and Vladivostok (eg) were far more busy and protected than any other port on the continent.

 

[Schumacher]

In actual fact I was avoiding answering some of it. I'll give an oblique answer though.

The PLAN typically operates its subs in pairs. One new sub and one old sub together. One acts as a guard to the first (kind if obvious which one)

The USN for 45 years was able to monitor all the traffic coming out of Russias North Western ports - in fact ever since Cuba - the Russians never had any idea, and none of the "great" US spies like Walker knew that as well.

Ditto for Vladivostok. Both Murmansk and Vladivostok (eg) were far more busy and protected than any other port on the continent.

Great, Thks. I get what U mean. Looks like the Chinese need to go back to the drawing board.

 

[Francois]

Just will had few things, as many of you seem to misunderstand the A-90B deal. I am sure I will bring some flaming on me, but you need to understand once and for all.

DCN and sold a package to Pakistan for the building a 3 A-90Bs, one in France, two in Pak.
The deal includes assistance for the manufacturing and the tech transfer for a further set if needed, witha close to allow export from Pakistan.
What you guys don't get are these few things :
- The tech transfer deal didn't include essential systems (sonars and suites, engines, etc.), nor the core material that makes the A-90B so formidable (HLES100 to name it).
- The fab of the subs were intensively done with french assistance (few good engineers left behind btw). By the feed back from ppl from DCN, I don't see Pakistan to build anything by itself in the near or med future.
Very few countries can master the fab of submarines in the world, and these having the knowledge are not exempt of troubles (look british or german troubles in the 80/90s).

So, DCN, but like any submarine designer today allowing tech transfer, are not stupid and they will still have a lot of work in the future in this industry.

The only new contender I may see in the 20/30 years frame is Korea, and Japan if they remove their no-export policy.

Edit : Gary, please watch this one, I gonna get flamed

 

[gf0012-aust]

The only new contender I may see in the 20/30 years frame is Korea, and Japan if they remove their no-export policy.

Sth Korea has some new 3500 tonners planned for start in the next 3 years

Edit : Gary, please watch this one, I gonna get flamed

web (and I + the other mods) have been pretty savage in the past week with flamers. plus we have 2 more mods on board who will also be pretty quick on the draw I would think.

 

[Francois]

web (and I + the other mods) have been pretty savage in the past week with flamers. plus we have 2 more mods on board who will also be pretty quick on the draw I would think.

Thanks for your support.

 

[Elite-Pilot]

DCN launches design work for Pakistan submarine

French naval shipbuilding, combat systems and engineering group DCN is reported to have commenced initial design activity on a new conventional submarine type to be offered to Pakistan in the wake of India's acquisition of six Scorpene submarines from Armaris (a DCN/Thales joint venture) in late 2005.

According to a report in the Paris-based business daily newspaper La Tribune, Pakistan has indicated a requirement for up to five boats. It is understood that the design being developed by DCN, designated Marlin, would draw on much of the technology previously developed for the export-oriented Scorpene programme.

It is understood that the Pakistan Navy, which decommissioned all four of its ageing Hangor-class submarines on 2 January, is now planning to acquire three to five additional modern boats for delivery from 2013-14.

La Tribune reports that German (Howaldtswerke Deutsche-Werft) and Spanish (Navantia) submarine builders have also been asked to submit proposals to meet the requirement.

------------------

good news aint it? these subs will be custom made for the PN!!

 

[A Khan]

good news aint it? these subs will be custom made for the PN!!

yes, but depends on the capabilities of the new subs. If its just a "repainted" scorpene, then not much to gain, since PN already has the Agosta 90B, and paying big money for a new untested platform will not be a good option.

Personally, i would be more en favour of the German U214. They are tested platforms, and they can fire cruise missiles, probably one of the main capabilities that the PN is looking for in a new submarine.

But the more to choose from the better! Does anyone know what type of subs are produced by the Navantia Spain?

 

[adsH]

DCN launches design work for Pakistan submarine

French naval shipbuilding, combat systems and engineering group DCN is reported to have commenced initial design activity on a new conventional submarine type to be offered to Pakistan in the wake of India's acquisition of six Scorpene submarines from Armaris (a DCN/Thales joint venture) in late 2005.

According to a report in the Paris-based business daily newspaper La Tribune, Pakistan has indicated a requirement for up to five boats. It is understood that the design being developed by DCN, designated Marlin, would draw on much of the technology previously developed for the export-oriented Scorpene programme.

It is understood that the Pakistan Navy, which decommissioned all four of its ageing Hangor-class submarines on 2 January, is now planning to acquire three to five additional modern boats for delivery from 2013-14.

La Tribune reports that German (Howaldtswerke Deutsche-Werft) and Spanish (Navantia) submarine builders have also been asked to submit proposals to meet the requirement.

------------------

good news aint it? these subs will be custom made for the PN!!

I really do respect the Tact DCN (French) display. They have two rival Clients and they're fueling their own little Arms race.

As far as that earlier post is concerned it was always understood that Pak is not self reliant in-terms of Materials supply to Manufacture the 90B’s, And they wouldn't be their Client base isn't large enough to warrant a series of specialist industries. It’s uneconomical. As far as integration goes I have no doubt they can muster up something!!

 

[Uhu]

Personally, i would be more en favour of the German U214. They are tested platforms, and they can fire cruise missiles, probably one of the main capabilities that the PN is looking for in a new submarine.

Actually, since the first (and still only) submarine of this class has been comissioned just 3-4 months ago (IIRC), GSC Type 214 is still a pretty new platform IMHO.

 

[Temoor_A]

I think it is useless for the moment to discuss if Pakistan should look to export Agosta 90Bs because it first needs to give its own navy that edge which is badly needed.

Just three Agostas don't really sound that effective against Pakistan's eastern rival's recent naval acquisitions. Atleast 6-8 would pack more of a punch in PN's offensive capabilities along with acquisition of atleast 10 major surface combatants.

PS: I think this thread should be merged with the existing Pakistan Navy owing to similarity of content. Thnx

Well I agree with the high-lighted part of your post but you have to understand that building large number of Modern Subs is a costly venture.

Our military is focusing on "Minimum Deterrence Strategy" and that is due to our economic condition because Civilian sector also needs investment.

India has got vast resources that can be easily invested in its military and competition is not that easy, especially in Naval Sector.

I think that PN after building 3 Agosta Subs (as required) for its defence, should start exporting them, which will benefit our economy and then we can have options for investment in more things.

 

[mysterious]

Even though the PN has got the tech-transfer from DCN, without French help it still is not fully capable of manufacturing the Agosta 90B to the required standard at a larger scale (lack of certain items that go in to the project) to be able to export them (otherwise PN would, by now, be already involved in building more Agostas for its own needs). Tech-transfer doesn't mean 'everything' related to the Agosta project (source codes, etc) have been transfered to Pakistan as correctly pointed out by Francois.

The assumption of 'costly venture' and other financial restrictions sounds less compelling given the recent report about DCN launching design work on a PN specific sub (as you can read in the posts above). Having a sub made to order is quite an expensive venture by itself and once the project is completed, you'd expect the buyer (PN in this case) to purchase atleast enough subs to break-even (maybe they even have put forth a certain number of subs to DCN which has enabled them to get to the drawing board). This is why the arguement about financial restrictions does not really hold in this particular case.

The PN has got to upgrade itself to even come 'close' to the so-called 'minimum deterrence' level as currently, the IN outnumbers and outmatches (technologically) PN on almost every level. Apart from the Subs, PN has to look at its surface fleet which is becoming obselete each passing day. F-22P frigates from China wouldn't really solve many of PN's headaches as it would still require atleast a couple of destroyers (or atleast more advanced frigates) to even things out. Both the surface fleet and the sub fleet face enormous challenges proven by the fact that PN is actively pursuing this new sub from DCN to counter IN's Scorpenes and is engaged in negotiations over future acquisitions of surface combatants.

I'd invite Gary to shed some more light on this issue in his spare time.