The EU will never establish a unified defense as the EU is a herd of cats. especially where Western Europe is concerned Let’s hit the way back machine to before the invasion.
Eastern European nations were worried about Russian adventurism in the region.
Western Europe was worried about an influx of immigrants.
France has more investment in its MOD for its former colonies. Germany was trying to get more Russian pipelines and happy to trade Ukrainian sovereignty to get them.
The EU’s Weakness is that the EU isn’t a sovereign state. It’s a conglomeration of States a Confederation not a federation, whom have a history of fighting against each other and viewing each other as rivals especially in Western Europe. These haven’t been unified since Charles the Hammer.
Eastern European countries have a more centralized Defense mindset as they have a common history with an Agressive Soviet and Russian Empire. You are more likely to see more consolidation around defense procurement in the east than the west. It also helps that the eastern states have similar needs in defense procurement that differ from the western states.
The eastern states of the EU and NATO view the US involvement as the one thing that stops Russia. A few years back we can all remember “Fort Trump” when poland was pushing to try and get a permanent American military presence in Poland. The huge buys of the Polish military are a similar deal. A move to establish a large military force that makes Poland a wall against Russia. Building that wall isn’t going to work at the glacial pace of the EU defense or the work at the high cost point of a weaker economy asking for sales from a stronger one.
If the EU was the basis of European defense it would be centralized in France and Germany. Increasingly more so France. Whom is happy to place its defense priorities well ahead of any partners.
Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Latvia, Estonia and more they would be buffer states at the periphery traded at the first sign of trouble. Gee that sounds a lot like the late 1930s. Because the EU is a Confederation not a Federation each of the independent countries HAS to organize itself for its own defense. See Greece and Turkey.
Poland made its investments in South Korean and American buys primarily as they don’t feel Germany was supporting them. They farther are making large investments in South Korean systems as the Western industry is getting stretched just keeping up with the new demand. The Poles asked the US for hundreds of HIMARS systems that the US couldn’t supply and Europe doesn’t even offer an equivalent. ( Something you missed in your rant. The US and the decentralized Eurozone MICs often have options that the big European MICs lack). South Korea said “okay” laid a timeline and asked if Poland wanted them on Doosans or their own trucks.
As a Bonus a lot of Eastern European geography and infrastructure is closer to the Korean Peninsula than Western European. Particularly in regards to bridges. K2 was designed for Korea mountains and wetlands lighter bridges vs Leopard 2 or Abrams which were designed for Western European plains. This is why Poland maintained two distinct types of MBT Leopard 2 for its more solid regions around Warsaw and Soviet types for more wetter regions.
Finally as the ROK firms are happy to license and tech exchange. This allows Poland to get what it wants and even push itself as a future leader in European defense industry by allowing it to serve as a supplier and support hub of potential exports of Such products which have been getting interest in European states that view the German cats as to fat for their needs. Potential customers like Norway who has been shopping it or Romania who has been looking for a new MBT but has lots of mountain terrain (kinda like South Korea).
Next Russia invaded Ukraine because Ukraine isn’t part of NATO. Because First and foremost Ukraine has large portions of essential military bases and support systems of the Russian MOD still routed through it. IE Sevastopol. The Naval base has been an issue between the two for centuries. The fact they are also not part of the EU doesn’t matter really.
Russia invaded as they felt the German government at the center of the EU as well as other “useful idiots” either pro Russian nationalists or pacifists governments or states in Western Europe that have been in bed with the Russians (Fra, Ger, Spa and It) and the US would has happened with Moldova and Georgia turn a blind eye maybe even side with them. As a Confederation the EU has no actual obligation for mutual defense. That’s NATO. NATO doesn’t have a mutual defense pact with Ukraine or Moldova. Yet the choice has been made to aid Ukraine in a number of States.
The fact that different state have different views isnt necessarily negative.
It helps balancing the situation.
You dont have to look at the big western countries as " countries that have been in bed with the russians", but as countries that were simply pragmatic. They needed cheap energy for their industries to be competitive on the market. Thats it.
The fact that russian companies then started a massive campaign of infiltration and corruption inside many states ( mainly Germany and Italy ) is something that happened later.
Going on with my " rant", as you called it, I'd like to point out that the process of turning the EU from a confederation to a federation isnt really working also because of the US.
The US have huge interests in maintaing their overseas empire, controlling the european countries and putting always focused pressure on their politics.
Many times we saw both russian and US criticizing the EU and doing everything they could to prevent integration between european countries.
Kissinger, Hungtinton, Cheney, many other americans and russians ( Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov...) spoked badly about EU.
USA keeps something like 100 000 troops in the EU, and have dozens of military bases and installations all across Europe.
Why would they want European countries to cooperate more?
They put pressure on weak governments and small countries to buy US made equipments instead of european ones. Thats a fact, not a rant.
Thats one of the reasons why the 4 ( Spa,Fra,Ita,Ger ) started OCCAR and EDA. Autonomy from the US.
We are likely to see less and less US made equipment being sold to Europe.
All those 4 countries stopped buying US-made land and naval products in the last 10/20 years.
And apart from the F35, which is necessary to deliver US-nukes B61s, the only american made planes they operate are tankers and cargos.
"The EU will never establish a unified defense"... I dont agree.
Not anytime soon, thats for sure, but europeans are well aware of the need of strategic autonomy.
In next 10 to 15 years, EU countries will be able to produce every piece of equipment they need, from SSBNs to Fighter jets to MBTs, in Europe.
Only in the last year:
- 21st March, 2022: European Strategic Compass and the first 5000 troops joint task force
- 25 May 2022: EDF boosting
- 5 December 2022: EU Foreign subsidies regulation, to stop foreign subsidies from non EU countries ( including those from the US ).
- 6 Jan 2023: EU chips act.
- 10 Jan 2023: First EU joint enegy procurement task force started working
To be defined this year, already undergoing discussion in Parliament:
- EU common debt
- EU industrial plan deal
So is the EU going to be federation anytime soon? absolutely NO.
Are they going to have a common defense anytime soon? absolutely NO.
Will the US leave their leading role in Europe anytime soon? absolutely NO.
But in 10 years? 20? 30?