Russia - General Discussion.

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
With regard to the oil price market and the caps imposed on Russia the minister has admitted there has been an effect, countries like India and China may take advantage of the cap for cheap Russian oil
Russian Oil Price Cap Hits Kremlin's Export Revenue, May Widen Deficit (businessinsider.com)
Russia bans oil exports for countries using price cap: Why Moscow made move, who will be affected? (firstpost.com)
Of course Indian and the PRC will take advantage of cheap Russian oil and gas. They'd be silly not too when they can. Russia is now the PRC's largest supplier of oil, knocking Saudi Arabia into second place. It's also one of the PRC's largest gas suppliers, 2nd pipeline and 4th LPG. US state department concerned as Russia, China strengthen ties.

Last Friday Putin and Xi Jinping held virtual meeting and it was announced that the countries would have a closer strategic relationship, however not as close as Putin would like. Putin also invited Xi to visit Moscow during the northern spring. Putin invites Xi to Moscow as Russia pursues alliance with China.

"We are expecting you, dear Mr. Chairman, dear friend, we are expecting you next spring on a state visit to Moscow," Putin told Xi in an effusive eight-minute introductory statement broadcast on state television. "This will demonstrate to the whole world the strength of Russian-Chinese ties on key issues." He also said he aimed to boost military cooperation with China - although there was no mention of this in the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV's report of the call. Although Xi called Putin his "dear friend", his introductory statement, at around a quarter the length of Putin's, was far more pragmatic in tone. Putin expects China's Xi to visit soon, Xi holds his line on Ukraine
Putin is still trying very hard to gain more from Xi, but Xi appears to be astute enough to know that if he fully supports Putin in the Ukrainian war then the PRC too will be sanctioned just like Russia. But more importantly he, his family, Politburo members, senior CCP officials and their families will be sanctioned personally as well. They all are alleged to have significant fortunes in overseas banks and other assets that they would lose as the US and the West went after them. It would also put the CCP itself in jeopardy because the PRC population may not take to kindly to hardships that they would have to endure because of the imposed sanctions. After the Covid-19 lockdowns such sanctions may be enough to cause the people to revolt against CCP rule.

Russian has resources and technology that the PRC needs, and the PRC has the money that Russia requires. However in this relationship Xi is the master and Putin the servant and Xi will get what he wants. This doesn't mean that the two won't move their military relations closer with more joint exercises and training between them. Eventually there may even be some standardisation of systems and procedures. This continued closer relationship between the two militaries does pose problems for Japan and as they grow accustomed to each other etc., it will make Japan's SDF problems more difficult, because it will have three different aggressors on its doorstep.

The other point to remember about this relationship is the geopolitical context with both leaders looking at solidifying a strong base of opposition to western thought and ideals, as well as the international rules that have governed international relations for the last 70 years. They have been paying less than lip service to the UN Charter to which they are both signatories, and both have been busy quashing any hopes of human rights and freedoms within their respective countries, whilst at the same time in the case of Putin committing an act of wanton aggression against a sovereign nation; and in Xi's case threatening and bullying all who oppose him and the PRC in anyway.

There also appears to be an outbreak of the defenestration virus in Russia afflicting Russian citizens, both at home and overseas. A Russian oligarch fell from a window in an Indian hotel on Xmas Day, two days after his friend died in the same hotel from an alleged stroke. Others appear to have health problems related to stairs and then of course there's Putin's favourite - poisoning. Assassination fears: Suspicion as four senior Russians suddenly die So at the moment the life expectancy of a Russian oligarch who displeases Putin isn't that long. This is known as Sudden Oligarch Death Syndrome (SODS).
 
Last edited:

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Israeli-Ukrainian relations continue souring, and Israel-Russia dialogue to proceed.

Israel and Ukraine have a longstanding political dispute around Ukraine's voting pattern in the UN. The UNGA issued 28 resolutions condemning nations this year, of whom 15 are directed at Israel, 6 at Russia, and a few others got one each.
Of the 15 resolutions, Ukraine voted "for" in 12, and abstained in 3.
Israel seeks to reverse this pattern, to have Ukraine vote against or at least abstain. Ukraine in return demands advertised weapons, primarily air defenses.

Israel failed to commit to air defenses, only expressing willingness to discuss the topic, and Ukraine did not attend two votes rather than abstaining or voting against.
Both sides are displeased, however Ukraine says it will give this new arrangement a chance.

My personal opinion? Ukraine's voting pattern is slowly antagonizing Israelis and makes any future advertised aid less popular. Therefore this is a time sensitive issue that may not weather another election season.


How this connects with the incoming Israeli FM, Eli Cohen, is curious.
Cohen in his first speech as FM said Israel will continue humanitarian support, but will "talk less" on Ukraine. This statement in itself is very ambiguous. Cohen also said he will speak today with Russian FM Lavrov for the first time as opposed to the previous government that did not have such high level talks with Russia.
What some prominent political commentators speculate is this means a minor shift toward Russia in terms of dialogue volume, a reduction in condemnations of Russia, and a limit to the growth of military aid to Ukraine.

My take on it is this could be a reaction to Russia's intent to sell strategic weaponry to Iran, particularly Su-35 aircraft, and the higher significance the Israeli center-right to far right plus religious give the voting subject.


I'll be following closely for any result of this phone call.

EDIT: Already poor reception for Cohen's policies. Lindsey Graham, hawkish on Russia but a good friend to Israel, says:
"To stay quiet about Russia’s criminal behavior will not age well."
 
Last edited:

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Russia I suspect going to continue with their strategy on discount price on gaining market in Asia. They have no choice as decoupling between Euro Zone and Russia already gaining momentum on both ways, which I do suspect already reaching point of no return.

However it's by no means they are taking hit on the margin much. Even the proposed cap price for Russian oil of USD 60+ from G7 still make healthy margins for Russian producers.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Reuters updated their "Gas storage tracker" on January 1st: 83.5% of EU gas storage was filled, so no reduction (actually a tiny increase) since the previous measurement. How much of Europe’s gas storage is filled (reuters.com)

European gas prices have now fallen to their lowest level since the start of the war (USD 77, compared to record level of USD 367 in March), reflecting the overall excellent storage situation and continuous supply of gas. The mild weather is also a significant factor of course. European Gas Prices Fall to Lowest Level Since Ukraine War (voanews.com)

Also interesting to note that whereas the storage level is now 83.5%, it was only 54% in January 2022. The reason for the low levels in January 2022, several weeks before the February 24 invasion, was of course that Russia did not deliver the amounts of gas during 2021, as they would normally do when EU gas storage is running low.... the plan to use gas as a weapon against Europe was implemented already during 2021... European natural gas imports (bruegel.org). European gas prices were quite high in 2021, in particular during the fall, when it became more and more clear that the gas storage situation was becoming critically low. But instead of making a fortune selling expensive gas, Russia was holding back during 2021.

Let's hope European politicians have learned their lesson -- decoupling from Russia is simply a necessity (unless Europe wants to become Putin's lap dog).
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Is Russia not selling their gas to Euro Zone, or they are clossing cheap gas, and sell higher price gas ?



Until October, it is clear that Euro Zone Gas reserve being fill by LNG shipment. Ironically LNG shipment to Euro Zone it is also come increasingly from Russia. What is interesting is Gas from LNG will come at higher price compare to Gas from pipeline. It is in the end matter on logistics cost.

Will that going to matter this 2023 on ward ?


This article talk on some "western" analysts that predict eventough Euro Zone will face tough years ahead, but Russia will be on lossing side. Which also other market analysts say other way around. The truth is nobody knows for sure how the end results of this energy decoupling will be, Will Russia on lossing side, Will Euro zone are the ones in lossing side, or both sides will find equilibrium in the market one way or the other.

Personally I tend to agree with the third opinion. There will be adjustments on both sides, but in the end they will find other suppliers and market to reach more or less equilibrium on their own market. It is just part of market shifting, which in the end find their own adjustments. Hydrocarbons suppliers is not Russia alone, while Hydrocarbons market is not Euro zone alone. Global economies will adjust each market mechanism toward overall market and demand adjustments.

Too much emphasis on Hydrocarbons demise with new energy means also Hydrocarbons suppliers will take as much as margin possible, before the market (especially in Euro Zone) gather enough investments toward alternative energy. However toward Russian and Collective West relationship, well both going to pay costs for the adjustments for next couple of years at least.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, anti-Putin Russian partisans began to launch sabotage operations against Kremlin infrastructure inside their country. After almost one year of war, these cells in Russia have grown exponentially. From Moscow to Vladivostok, there have been more than 80 confirmed anti-government attacks in the past 12 months. Reported by independent journalist Jake Hanrahan.

Russia's Anti-Putin Underground - YouTube

They deny being supported by the CIA; "if we were CIA we would have had much more resources"

It seems very credible to me that these guys are not supported by the CIA -- I am not an expert in this but to a layperson like me, they very much look and sound like "amateurs" not professionals, in organizing and executing these attacks. (I am also surprised at some of the operational details they don't hesitate to share). Still, they seem to be quite effective. Incredibly brave people, fighting an uphill battle against tsar Putin.

@Feanor is this a credible explanation of all the mysterious attacks happening in Russia? If so, quite interesting, and somewhat surprising that these grassroot anti-Putin cells have the capabilities to launch so many attacks over such a long time without being stopped more effectively. It seems Putin has issues not just with his armed forces...
 
Last edited:

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, anti-Putin Russian partisans began to launch sabotage operations against Kremlin infrastructure inside their country. After almost one year of war, these cells in Russia have grown exponentially. From Moscow to Vladivostok, there have been more than 80 confirmed anti-government attacks in the past 12 months. Reported by independent journalist Jake Hanrahan.

Russia's Anti-Putin Underground - YouTube

They deny being supported by the CIA; "if we were CIA we would have had much more resources"

It seems very credible to me that these guys are not supported by the CIA -- I am not an expert in this but to a layperson like me, they very much look and sound like "amateurs" not professionals, in organizing and executing these attacks. (I am also surprised at some of the operational details they don't hesitate to share). Still, they seem to be quite effective. Incredibly brave people, fighting an uphill battle against tsar Putin.

@Feanor is this a credible explanation of all the mysterious attacks happening in Russia? If so, quite interesting, and somewhat surprising that these grassroot anti-Putin cells have the capabilities to launch so many attacks over such a long time without being stopped more effectively. It seems Putin has issues not just with his armed forces...
I'd have to do a little more research. The timing is awfully suspicious, and Russia in general is not a safe country. Industrial accidents and infrastructural failures happen, so it's plausible that someone is taking credit for something that they haven't actually done, but again I'd have to look into it.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Is Russian MIC and aerospace industry hold any export or delay international supplies to customers?

This Algerian tweeters seems shown confidence their order still being delivered by Russian.


This for BE200, amphibious plane.


Indonesia also still going ahead with their AF Flankers refurbishment and modifications jobs. Something that already been alocated, and seems shown confidence that Russia can still deliver the services.

However what's most important is India, as Russian biggest market for Military products. Many analysts question whether:
1. India will cave in toward US CAATSA,
2. Russian can continue the supplies even if India doesn't care on CAATSA threat.


Russian MIC is Russian 2nd biggest exports assides Hydrocarbons/Commodities. This is also an important factor for Russia on their geopolitical influence. The response from customers so far seems related also on how big Russian made assets as part of their inventory.

Countries like Egypt and lesser extense Indonesia seems taking CAATSA threats more serious, as the portion of US made assets if much bigger then Russian ones. However countries like India, Vietnam or Algiers for example, will react differently as their military assets have huge portions of Russian made or Russian tech assets.

Yet some "western" analysts already 'boasting' this war will make those big Russian users will begin to goes to West to replace Russian assets. I said it is 'boasting' as they only begin to look more on potential Western suppliers, but clearly not means they will replace their Russian assets with Western ones. Calling keeping to Russian procurement is loosing strategy, just like this Forbes article as example.


Even smaller Russian assets users like Indonesia is still want to keep their Russian assets operational, eventough hold new procurement from Russia. How those western analysts sure that big users will ditch Russian ? Seems so far more on some western analysts dreams, then realities yet.

What make Russian assets has worse then Western assets performance? The War so far shown the mistakes on Russian tactics that more determine on some of the setbacks, not Western made assets. So is the Russian assets users shock on their performance ? Somehow if looking to Indian media and forums, they are split, but those who support Russian assets still big. So who is really shock ? Is It really Indian or those Western (or Indian Western leaning) analysts that put that 'perspective' ?

So I don't see especially the Russian long term customers will move away from Russia big ways, and switching to Western suppliers. Even if they are getting to 'some' Western suppliers, does not mean it will be US ones. Indonesia for examples so far getting more Frenchie and even Turkish assets then US (let alone Germany and UK). This to compensate hold Russian procurement. Thus very big potential also if India goes more to West it is Frencie that predicted going to win more than US or UK ones.

Geopolitics is matter, and those who use Russian assets mostly have historical 'ambiguity' on US policies. Thus choosing the like Frenchie, Israel or even Turkiye now days seems being taken as middle ground. However expecting them to abandon Russia for US ? That's so far seems more western analysts dreams then realities yet.
 
Last edited:

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Is Russian MIC and aerospace industry hold any export or delay international supplies to customers?
Yes.

The reference you provided above give the following examples:
Russia has had to suspend multimillion-dollar arms contracts with other nations, either because of the sanctions or in order to replenish losses of combat equipment in what it calls its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

Its overstretched arms production has caused a delay in the setting up of an Indo-Russia joint venture for manufacturing more than 600,000 AK-203 assault rifles costing over US$607 million in India’s northern state of Uttar Pradesh.

Similarly delayed has been the delivery of four follow-on Talwar-class guided-missile frigates for the Indian Navy, two of them to be constructed in Kaliningrad and two in Mumbai. Russia has also deferred supplies to India of systems and spares for its Kilo-class submarines and its MiG-29 fighters and Mi-17 transport helicopters. Also delayed are five S-400 Triumf missile-defence systems.

Uncertainty in arms supply led India to suspend negotiations with Rosoboronexport, the export arm of Russian defence conglomerate Rostec, and its sister concern, Russian Helicopters, for 10 more Kamov Ka-31 helicopters costing US$520 million.
I think specifically for India they will long-term try to replace imports from Russia not with Western stuff, but locally produced. This is what they are working towards, see e.g. Pil book 13.10.2022.cdr (mod.gov.in)

Arms sales from Russia to South East Asia was already dropping before the latest invasion of Ukraine, dropping from $1.2 billion in 2014 to just $89 million in 2021. Are Russian Arms Exports to Southeast Asia a Thing of the Past? – The Diplomat

However you are right in that many countries including Vietnam and several others will probably not stop all Russian arms purchases. On the other hand, the developing relationship between Russia and China might cause some countries that consider China their main threat, to pause and reconsider the long term implications. The implications of the war in Ukraine are far from yet, since the war has far from concluded. However it does not look good for Russia -- they keep getting weaker day by day, and this means also more and more dependent on China. That should not be comforting to e.g., India. In a potential future conflict with China, how will India ensure that Russia does not "give in" to pressure from China and stop all equipment support to India? If Russia is weakened sufficiently they may have no choice in the matter.

More about Vietnam and arms import/export: Analysis: Vietnam shifts gears on arms trade as it loosens ties with Russia | Reuters

Vietnam has in recent years bought military gear from new suppliers, including the United States, Israel, the Netherlands and South Korea, SIPRI data show.

With the war in Ukraine, which Russia calls a "special operation", Vietnam appears to have sped up diversification.

India, Israel and Eastern European countries are better positioned as alternative suppliers because they can provide weapons compatible with the Russian systems that still account for 80% of Vietnam's arsenal, analysts said.
 
Last edited:

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
European gas inventories are still high, and consumption is still low, so most likely even by end of the winter there will be significant amounts of gas in European gas storages. Meaning that the need to re-fill the gas storages during the summer will be much less than in previous years. In addition, more and more LNG terminals are being built. Thus, all the fearmongering around gas supplies for winter of 2023/2024 is probably exaggerated.

Europe’s gas prices slump to moderate storage build | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

India they will long-term try to replace imports from Russia not with Western stuff, but locally produced.
Yes, but who will be their partner on building their MIC. The article above is few Western analysts that I believe more balanced on assessment on Russian - India military relationship. India choose Russia basically as more to Russian relative openes on their Tech.

Yes, we heard a lot off problem that India and Russian co-op on military tech transfer. However India keep back toward Russia, because they seems find out at least Russian more open on tech transfer "to India" relative to West. Perhaps the Western sources that are relative more comparable is Frenchie.

India will not be the only Asian that has ambitions toward self sufficient in MIC. However they also one that willing to invest big on that area. Every country that going to build their MIC also going to find certain partner more open to them on military tech, and the situation different from each country. Just so happens (base on historical trend) India found Russia as more reliable partner on this area.

India. In a potential future conflict with China, how will India ensure that Russia does not "give in" to pressure from China and stop all equipment support to India? If Russia is weakened sufficiently they may have no choice in the matter.
Yet India and China continue increasing their co-op in BRICS. Some Western analysts discount BRICS is increasing become 'empty' co-op organization.


However also those who see BRICS by their members use as Geopolitical leverage against more established 'club' as like G7.


Something that going to matter more considering World become more Multi Polar then just a Unipolar order after last century Cold War.

Arms sales from Russia to South East Asia was already dropping before the latest invasion of Ukraine,
In the case of Indonesia also related to previous Defense Minister administrative incompetence, which delay executions of Russian procurement. As for Vietnam case, remember the actual order that so far already effective still many come from Russia. Analysts can say what they want, however the latest procurement still not showing that much shift. Even if some non Russian procurement happen, does not mean Vietnam abandoning Russia.

Latest defense fair still have strong presence of Russian build assets (lot off you tube video shown that). Vietnam also wants to build their own MIC even in much smaller scale then India. However just like India, more likely they still look to Russia as sources of tech partner and supplies for their MIC.

Asia increasingly build their own MIC so does Latin America and Middle East. Each have their own capabilities and capital to determine each pace. Thus more likely established defense OEM will cone more as tech partner. Whether Russian, Chinese, Euro zone, or US OEM has to work on that more and more in future.

Geopolitical do still determine whose going to be preferable partner from each developing MIC. So far whose their historical suppliers usually become their preferences as partner. Not the end of Russian MIC as partners. They still have same chances then Western MIC
 
Last edited:

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Geopolitical do still determine whose going to be preferable partner from each developing MIC. So far whose their historical suppliers usually become their preferences as partner. Not the end of Russian MIC as partners. They still have same chances then Western MIC
I think it is way too early to draw any conclusion of how the war in Ukraine and the geopolitical changes triggered by that, will influence Russia's weapons sales worldwide. As you know, such processes often take decades. Let's wait and see at least 1-2 years to see any impact.

Perhaps you also underestimate the growth of new suppliers. South Korea, India, and Turkey in particular are rapidly becoming major exporters of military equipment. Thus, those that look for alternatives to Russia, China, the US and France, can find more and more alternatives, outside of those traditional suppliers. This will have an impact on on just the "traditional" Western suppliers but also Russia (and China).
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
think it is way too early to draw any conclusion of how the war in Ukraine and the geopolitical changes triggered by that, will influence Russia's weapons sales worldwide
Off course it is. That's what my previous post points about. At this moments it is western media and some of western analysts think tank that seems talking on demise of Russian MIC on export market as permanent trend. So far Russian MIC still intact, and their production rate has not been decreasing much as previous western analysts predictions.

This is why some of Russians customers still not write off Russian MIC as suppliers. The potential Russian MIC rebounds on their traditional market still there.

Perhaps you also underestimate the growth of new suppliers. South Korea, India, and Turkey in particular are rapidly becoming major exporters of military equipment.
No I'm not underestimate them. I already put how Turkiye increasing portion on Military supplies to Indonesia as example. However they are not mature enough yet. Their possition in global arms market more likely like China in the 90's.

Problem with those three is their MIC still using many other peoples tech. Indonesia for example found it hard way during KFX project, where as Junior partner, Indonesian technicians can not get access to all projects due to some clearence from US (as KFX using big portion on US tech). Remember problem that Turkiye has with their T129 ATAK helicopter to Philippines and Pakistan due to US stop engine export licenses . Takes times to sort this out, and this can be problematic to attracting other customers.

This is why Indonesia only work with Turkiye on their products that more or less only using Turkish own tech. So they have potential for become major players on global MIC market, but those three still need times to become more mature players.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Off course it is. That's what my previous post points about. At this moments it is western media and some of western analysts think tank that seems talking on demise of Russian MIC on export market as permanent trend. So far Russian MIC still intact, and their production rate has not been decreasing much as previous western analysts predictions.
So we agree then, that we need to wait quite a long time to see how it plays out. I predict Ukraine is going to try to hit MIC in Russia during 2023, either by themselves, or by providing training and support to e.g. the Russian partisan cells that I mentioned in Russia and the West

I predict this, together with the sanctions will start impact production rates of the more sophisticated equipment.

Also, the trend in particular in India, Russia's largest export market, was clear even before the 2022 invasion: Explained: India’s arms imports from Russia | ORF (orfonline.org)

In the years between 2001 to 2011, India’s total arms imports from Russia stood at US$17.29 billion as shown in Chart 3. Russia’s imports to India were more than five times greater than the next four largest suppliers, as shown in Chart 3, whose total imports to India constituted US$3.32 billion. Thus, in this period the four largest non-Russian suppliers’ share of India’s imports stood at 19.20 percent of Russia’s total imports to India, contrasting sharply with the decade between 2011 and 2021 when the four largest non-Russian suppliers’ share of India’s imports stood at 59.21 percent of Russia’s total imports.

It's also interesting to notice that in 2021, France actually surpassed Russia in arms export to India (chart 4 -- no doubt in part because of the Rafale deal).
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
we agree then, that we need to wait quite a long time to see how it plays out
We agree that's time will tell how this play out. However I don't see Ukranian have any abilities what so ever to hit Russian MIC, especially significantly. For one thing Ukranian MIC is practically destroyed already.

As for how far the sanction impact Russian MIC, I have put it so far Russian economy still function relative well. Also Russian so far can still get access to the semi conductors they need. Micro electronics is the thing that becomes Russian MIC weakest points. However it is also too early to say Russian can not do adjustment on that later on.

Again for India, they will try to reduce imports for every other suppliers. So their import should be on down trend overall in future. Made in India is the ambitions for their own MIC. For India the game from foreign suppliers is to see who and how big part India biggest MIC partner will be. That's so far still open game.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
We agree that's time will tell how this play out. However I don't see Ukranian have any abilities what so ever to hit Russian MIC, especially significantly. For one thing Ukranian MIC is practically destroyed already.
Ukrainian MIC is for the most part destroyed however they can still send sabotage teams into Russia. Also, I predict that during second half of 2023 long-range missiles and/or Western fighter jets will be made available to Ukraine. When that happens, the state of Ukrainian MIC has probably no impact whatsoever on Ukraine's abilities to hit Russian MIC.
Again for India, they will try to reduce imports for every other suppliers. So their import should be on down trend overall in future. Made in India is the ambitions for their own MIC. For India the game from foreign suppliers is to see who and how big part India biggest MIC partner will be. That's so far still open game.
Again, India reduced the fraction of Russian imports from being more than 5 times bigger than the next 4 importers in 2001-2011, to being only 60% larger during the period 2011-2021, and in 2021 they were surpassed by France! This is a comparison between imports from different countries not looking at overall reduction in imports, which is a separate factor. Both these trends are working against future Russian exports to India.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
however they can still send sabotage teams into Russia. Also, I predict that during second half of 2023 long-range missiles and/or Western fighter jets will be made available to Ukraine.
That's your prediction, I don't see that much on that. US after all entering next election period. Not everyone in US have same idea on how far the level they will continue support Ukraine.

I also don't see that Western Equipment really game changer in the ground. So far the best Western support is from their ISTAR, AEW and Satellites info, something that Russian so far choose not to touch. Ukrainian can only realistically hit deep into Russian, If NATO choose to put their own assets in the ground.

That's will change this war to WW3. Still you're entitled to your own projection. I just don't see that happening, People in West fixiate on Russian poor performance, again forgetting Ukranian also don't do too well, considering they're actually outnumbered Russian in the ground.

This is my last remark on present war in this thread. Talk more on this war in other thread.

India reduced the fraction of Russian imports from being more than 5 times bigger than the next 4 importers in 2001-2011, to being only 60% larger during the period 2011-2021, and in 2021 they were surpass
Again, that numbers does not reflect the level of Russian involvement in Indian MIC as partners. Indian forums and Media talk one of reasons Russian import in paper reduce, due to many parts of Russian made equipment now being source locally under license by Indian MIC.

Again Indian will reduce their import as time by, the game is again who will be their main partner on developing their MIC in future. As for French their increase in mostly due to Rafale and Scorpene. Which mostly still sources from French. However India expect by time like their Flankers and Kilos, those French assets will get support by Indian parts, and then reducing Import from French in time, as they've done with Russian assets support.
 

swerve

Super Moderator

Yes, but who will be their partner on building their MIC. The article above is few Western analysts that I believe more balanced on assessment on Russian - India military relationship. India choose Russia basically as more to Russian relative openes on their Tech.
...
South Korean deals with Poland seem to indicate significant technical openness. It's been reported (I don't know how accurately) that the Chunmoo rocket launcher sale includes fitting launchers to Polish vehicles, incorporating Polish communications & battlefield management systems, & license-built launchers & missiles, & Poland will also build K9s & K2s in versions incorporating Polish systems.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
That's will change this war to WW3. Still you're entitled to your own projection. I just don't see that happening, People in West fixiate on Russian poor performance, again forgetting Ukranian also don't do too well, considering they're actually outnumbered Russian in the ground....
Raw numbers aren't the main factor & haven't been for a very long time. Firepower matters far more, & Russia has a lot more of that. Russia has more guns, firing more rounds per gun, more AFVs of every kind, more aircraft, more missiles - more of everything. The Ukrainians have done astoundingly well allowing for that. And in the first few days (which Russian planning assumed would be when the war was won) a lot of the Ukrainian forces weren't mobilised, but they still won.

The Russians also had other advantages, such as Ukrainian turncoats. They were getting information & assistance from those Ukrainians (who I imagine have been leaving with the retreating Russians from the land retaken by Ukraine). That made some of their advances possible.

Given all that, the Ukrainians did much, much better than the Russians early on.
 
Top