Russia - General Discussion.

C

contricusc

Member
tonnyc said:
Give us money. No strings attached. Well, okay, that's unrealistic. Very minimal strings attached.
No, no. Not lend us money. Give. No strings attached. Lending us money is a business transaction.
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That’s the worst idea I ever heard. Giving money for free doesn’t create love/affection, but entitlement. Once you start giving money for free, it is always expected to give more, and you are judged by how little you give compared to how much you keep for yourself. The limited resources the West has are totally insignificant to make a change by giving money for free, but are enough to create the feeling of entitlement. The recipients will feel that the money is rightfully their, and the donors are feeling guilty for their past sins and are paying some form of reparation, but of course, they are not paying enough.

What the West should actually do is to stop all giveaways and start to act in a transactional-only way, just like China. There is very little love for the West in the Global South, so all the past spending has been in vain.

As Ananda keeps saying, they are on the fence about the West, Russia or China. For them, they’re all the same. Then why bother to be the “good guys” who give aid if the end result is being seen as the equivalent of China?

The very concept of BRICS means that Russia and China are actually more loved than the West, so maybe the Global South needs some “tough love” from the West as well.
 
Ananda

Ananda

The Bunker Group

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When West knows that the game now is to get more leverage advantage with Global South relative compare to China and Russia, then it's 'charm' offensive and offers game. Just like this photo session are. How the G7 put the Global South guests in the middle pack just one part of the charm game.

It is transactional the Geopolitics is, it is always been there, even after WW2 when US clearly come out as the 'relatively' biggest winner. Marshall Plan is part of Geopolitics, part of US rebuilding their allies. Right now even US know it is time of 'peer competition'. In time of increasing competitive conditions, you want to get better advantage leverage Globally then your competitors.

Then G7 must give better offer package relative to what China-Russia as competitor. The other sides will react with their counter offer, and that's part of how transactional geopolitics game. What 'love' and feeling got to do with it? Just like in Geo business, geopolitics is just part of transactional games. Politics just like business can have changing bed fellows, nothing is permanent, but time convenience.

Mind you, the Global South also knows this reality.
 
T

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
contricusc said:
That’s the worst idea I ever heard. Giving money for free doesn’t create love/affection, but entitlement. Once you start giving money for free, it is always expected to give more, and you are judged by how little you give compared to how much you keep for yourself. The limited resources the West has are totally insignificant to make a change by giving money for free, but are enough to create the feeling of entitlement. The recipients will feel that the money is rightfully their, and the donors are feeling guilty for their past sins and are paying some form of reparation, but of course, they are not paying enough.

What the West should actually do is to stop all giveaways and start to act in a transactional-only way, just like China. There is very little love for the West in the Global South, so all the past spending has been in vain.

As Ananda keeps saying, they are on the fence about the West, Russia or China. For them, they’re all the same. Then why bother to be the “good guys” who give aid if the end result is being seen as the equivalent of China?

The very concept of BRICS means that Russia and China are actually more loved than the West, so maybe the Global South needs some “tough love” from the West as well.
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I told you what I observed on the ground and you dismiss it outright. Didn't even try to offer a counter-evidence.

It's off-topic though so rather than spending my time on a proper rebuttal I'll just say, "Whatever, dude."
 
A

Arji

Active Member
Touching a bit on the subject of Global South Opinion, though I'm aware it's somewhat out of topic. I do share the sentiment expressed by Ananda and I'm sure this opinion is also shared by the majority in Indonesia. As for Tonnyc's opinion of increasing aid to buy Indonesia's goodwill, I think it's not wrong, it's a valid method, but I think the goodwill it forms will be extremely delicate. If for whatever reason we have internal issues with human rights (which is not impossible in a developing country, especially if the people here are staunchly against things like LGBT) and it blows up to international level, and people start seeing comments on how "we should stop the aid for this country". It will be easy to turn "aid program" to "coercion method" in the eyes of Indonesian public.

I think the clearest example of the differences between how the two treated Global South (or atleast Indonesia) is examplified a few years ago, when Indonesia decided to ban its Nickel export in an effort to move up the value chain. Europe decided to sue us in the WTO, whereas China invest to build smelters in-country. It's only when the smelters are established that Hyundai, Foxconn decided to make battery and EV manufacturing plant here, and even US and European firm are expressing interest. But by that point, the smelters are already cornered by the Chinese, and since it's Chinese, western firm like Ford is immidiately criticised for the investment it promised to Indonesia despite the fact of how crucial it was to the development of our economy.

I think ultimately what we want isn't aid, rather the opportunity to advance ourselves, improve our economy. Chinese is willing to build Smelters here, why can't Europe? or Japan? or the US? If the standards are lacking, why can't they work with local firm to improve them. Work with palm oil company to promote labor and environmentally-friendly practices and standard, instead of banning them outright from European market under grounds of environmental concerns. It's honestly frustrating, because people here have a bias against Chinese made things and favors western quality. Western deals are almost always more reliable and just better than the Chinese ones (even if they are more expensive), just like how European made car have better quality than Chinese ones. But they rarely give them out.

The recent discussion in the G7 summit is, I think, is a step in the right direction. They are at least saying the right words, now it's just a matter of putting their money where their mouth is.
 
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C

contricusc

Member
Arji said:
when Indonesia decided to ban its Nickel export in an effort to move up the value chain. Europe decided to sue us in the WTO, whereas China invest to build smelters in-country.
Chinese is willing to build Smelters here, why can't Europe? or Japan? or the US?
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I think the explanation here is more complex. Europe has a problem when it comes to natural resources, as it is a net importer of almost everything. The initial plan of Europeans on how to mitigate this problem after losing the colonial empires was for them to do the processing (refining of oil, smelting of metals, etc) while importing the raw materials. This would reduce their import costs and also allow them to export back some of the finished product to recover part of the cost. But then the developing countries rich in natural resources started to build their own refineries, and you also got the Chinese economic boom that resulted in huge processing power (like steel mills) outside Europe. Now, you have a situation where Europeans were forced to shut down some of their processing capacity while being unable to find export markets for their processed products.

This process of industrialization of developing countries has had a big toll on European industry, and it makes importing materials even more expensive, as there is more competition for raw materials (what they don’t have) and less demand for processed materials (what they used to be able to provide).

The nickel export ban you mentioned is just another similar situation, where Indonesia wants to build a larger part of the battery supply chain at home, while depriving Europeans the chance to participate in the supply chain.

The entire push for electric vehicles from Europeans was part of a plan to get rid of the dependence on oil (which Europe massively imports), but having the batteries made elsewhere is not a solution, as it keeps the European dependence on resource rich countries.
 
S

seaspear

Well-Known Member
S

seaspear

Well-Known Member
T

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
contricusc said:
That’s the worst idea I ever heard. Giving money for free doesn’t create love/affection, but entitlement. Once you start giving money for free, it is always expected to give more, and you are judged by how little you give compared to how much you keep for yourself. The limited resources the West has are totally insignificant to make a change by giving money for free, but are enough to create the feeling of entitlement. The recipients will feel that the money is rightfully their, and the donors are feeling guilty for their past sins and are paying some form of reparation, but of course, they are not paying enough.

What the West should actually do is to stop all giveaways and start to act in a transactional-only way, just like China. There is very little love for the West in the Global South, so all the past spending has been in vain.

As Ananda keeps saying, they are on the fence about the West, Russia or China. For them, they’re all the same. Then why bother to be the “good guys” who give aid if the end result is being seen as the equivalent of China?

The very concept of BRICS means that Russia and China are actually more loved than the West, so maybe the Global South needs some “tough love” from the West as well.
Click to expand...
Why give out free money? give out infrastructure development loans for sound projects. For all of BRIs failure look at their successes as well. The west can do more stringent project scrutiny and only provide loans for projects that will actually be used. You dont even have to look at China, just look at japan.

people harp a lot about BRI, but take a closer look at JIICA. Their funding helped build the first metro rail in my country that is already heavily used(despite being partially open). Loan out fo bridges that will be used enough that you can recoup your investment from tolls alone.
 
S

swerve

Super Moderator
Infrastructure development loans have a problem I identified when briefly working for a merchant bank, just after university. I was standing looking at a certificate on a wall about a loan to Argentina for building a motorway. I asked "How will that generate the foreign exchange to pay back the loan?", & a banker shrugged & said "Good question, but fortunately not our problem." The merchant bank hadn't lent any of its own money on that loan, just acted more or less as a broker. The motorway was built, BTW, & IIRC was well-used. But it wasn't, as far as I could see, going to do anything for the export economy. Soon afterwards Argentina had a foreign currency crisis . . . .

Infrastructure loans can make it possible to earn foreign exchange, e.g. by enabling transport of local produce to places from which it can be shipped out of a country, but that requires more than just infrastructure. It needs development-friendly & export-friendly policies (so locals can invest in production, processing, storage, etc., & expect to earn a decent return), & for infrastructure to be linked up.

Tolls paid in domestic currency can't repay foreign currency loans. The history of international loans is littered with cases of countries borrowing in foreign currency & being unable to pay.
 
C

contricusc

Member
swerve said:
It needs development-friendly & export-friendly policies (so locals can invest in production, processing, storage, etc., & expect to earn a decent return), & for infrastructure to be linked up.
Tolls paid in domestic currency can't repay foreign currency loans. The history of international loans is littered with cases of countries borrowing in foreign currency & being unable to pay.
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Very well said. The problem with loans made to a country is the risk of governments going socialist and ruining the economy, making repayment very difficult. A country like Argentina should have had no problem repaying its loans, if it allowed the market economy to work and foreign investors to invest and make profits. But when the main concern of the government is to block foreign investment and to pillage the private sector, no amount of foreign supervision will make the loans safe.
 
V

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
There are many reasons why Russia's neighbors for decades (and even centuries) have been very wary about the Russian empire, and felt the need to protect themselves. Here is another example, from Lithuania in 1948:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660638531583111168

The unprovoked illegal invasion of Ukraine, with torture, rape, kidnapping of children and murdering of civilians is simply "business as usual" from Russia. The same goes for Russian meddling in Georgia, Moldova, etc.

Those that still are "on the fence", whether they are in Switzerland, Asia, or Africa, should get off that fence and do the right thing. Desmond Tutu got it right:
If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.
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A

At lakes

Well-Known Member

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz www.stuff.co.nz

If one notes the 2nd photo in this article one will see a white pin in the approx location of the Chatham islands just east of the North Island of NZ.
The article suggests these pins represent where this clown has interests. I struggle to comprehend what sort of interests he could have in the Chatham Islands, the only thing there are a small collection of sheep farms and cray fishing.
 
ngatimozart

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
At lakes said:

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz www.stuff.co.nz

If one notes the 2nd photo in this article one will see a white pin in the approx location of the Chatham islands just east of the North Island of NZ.
The article suggests these pins represent where this clown has interests. I struggle to comprehend what sort of interests he could have in the Chatham Islands, the only thing there are a small collection of sheep farms and cray fishing.
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Fishing and there are significant seafloor mineral resources on, and in, the Chatham Rise upon which the islands sit. The Chatham Rise extends east from Canterbury for approximately 1,000 nautical miles.
 
A

At lakes

Well-Known Member
ngatimozart said:
Fishing and there are significant seafloor mineral resources on, and in, the Chatham Rise upon which the islands sit. The Chatham Rise extends east from Canterbury for approximately 1,000 nautical miles.
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the fishing is excellent the locals told me when I was there for a short time that the crayfish are so large that they have to fence off the beach as the crays come ashore at night and eat the sheep. And he said that with a straight face
 
ngatimozart

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
At lakes said:
the fishing is excellent the locals told me when I was there for a short time that the crayfish are so large that they have to fence off the beach as the crays come ashore at night and eat the sheep. And he said that with a straight face
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Yep, that wouldn't surprise me. Over the years there have been allegations of the crays taking mothers in law as well.
 
R

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
At lakes said:
the fishing is excellent the locals told me when I was there for a short time that the crayfish are so large that they have to fence off the beach as the crays come ashore at night and eat the sheep. And he said that with a straight face
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I remember meeting my wife and cousin at Wellington airport after they came back from there and as Moriori descendants, they were allowed to bring back a free cray each, The cousins one when he held it by the base of the feelers at his waste, reached the floor, Cousy bro was not that short either.
 
Ananda

Ananda

The Bunker Group
www.reuters.com

US had intelligence of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream project, Washington Post reports

The United States learned of a Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines three months before they were damaged last September by underwater explosions, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing leaked information posted online.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Interesting that US sources now more open to implicate potential Ukraine involvement on Nord Stream. Something that before Western officials back Ukraine claims as ridiculous accusations.
 
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