Royal New Zealand Navy Discussions and Updates

[MrConservative]

Are you asking whether western-aligned nations with naval forces (and presumably without their own domestic naval shipbuilding capability) might purchase entire, completed warships built in India,

Yes

or are you referring to the purchase of completed hulls which are then sent elsewhere for fitout?

and that too

Similarly, are you also including the purchase of non-main fleet unit vessels like OPV's and/or patrol boats?

That is indeed where they will likely enter the export market. If it floats they will built it.

The biggest restraint in the past in all things commercial and industrial in India has been the lack of inflow investment capital and global partners, as well as their own introverted business practices and national self confidence. That has really been turned around particularly this decade.

 

[John Fedup]

Deleted post

 

[John Fedup]

India will be the 3rd largest economy in the world by 2030 (Some analysts actually say possibly by 2025 helped via the decline in Germany and the UK). You get frustration everywhere within commercial deals whatever the jurisdiction, and foreigners do strange things such as showing up with ones family all decked out in Dhoti-Kurta's and wonder why they get no where, no deal and no respect.

Our esteemed leader also wanted a political hack included in his entourage visiting India, an individual who India considers a terrorist. I must have missed that in "sales 101"!

I will try to respond to the other stuff later in the India military aviation thread.

 

[Todjaeger]

Yes


and that too

That is indeed where they will likely enter the export market. If it floats they will built it.

The biggest restraint in the past in all things commercial and industrial in India has been the lack of inflow investment capital and global partners, as well as their own introverted business practices and national self confidence. That has really been turned around particularly this decade.

Honestly I do not see India as being a viable competitor in the international shipbuilding marketplace, at least not for many years in a number of segments.

Having looked at the current and near-future Indian Navy to get a better grasp of the latent industrial naval construction capability a few key points kind of stood out. The first is that a number of the currently active vessel classes originated overseas, with some being vessels exported to India, while others were joint overseas/Indian production of foreign designs. While some of the currently active class and most of the planned future class designs are of Indian origin, to me it does seem as though India is still in the process of developing it's own domestic naval design capability as opposed to having an already developed design capability like can be found in some other countries. Going along further with this, the current and future Indian vessels seem to kitted out and armed with a mix of Euro and Israeli-sourced weapons and sensors, along with those or Soviet/Russian origin. Such an arrangement might work for a non-aligned nation, but I could easily see problems occurring for a nation that wants or has stronger ties to Western Bloc nations. Such a nation might want or need naval systems which are unavailable to India for security reasons, and/or the purchasing nation might be denied systems that originate in Russia, again for security reasons.

In addition, having looked at the accident history for both the Indian Navy and Indian shipyards, it does seem that there have been quite a few accidents which have occurred which have resulted in vessels being damaged while under construction, being refitted, or under repairs. While accidents happen everywhere, having a reputation for accidents suggests to me that the processes which would usually minimize accidents and/or provide quality assurance are either lacking or not being followed with short cuts being taken instead. Either way, I would have concerns about whether the finished product would actually meet specified requirements.

Also, if one looks at current countries which fill overseas orders for ships, there are a few which stand out in Asia and Southeast Asia. S. Korea is likely the top one for ability to carry out a speedy, low-costing, and potentially complex ship build. Despite the comparatively high wages, S. Korea manages to achieve this by economies of scale. China would be next on the list, likely with an even lower cost though there could also be a decrease in quality and complexity. Vietnam has also emerged as a place to build vessel which can then be fitted out elsewhere, with Vietnam having taken some of the market share away from China by being able to achieve the same or better quality at an even lower cost. Some AusGov-ordered Damen designs come to mind as examples.

For completed warships, I suspect that only some non-aligned nations would be interested in the fitouts that India produces. For completed hulls which would be fitted out elsewhere, India would have a number of competitors that have already established track records where hulls were rapidly constructed at reasonable prices and of acceptable quality. In order for India to start getting market share then Indian yards would need to be competitive in terms of speed, cost, and quality. Given what the current conditions seem to be, I do not anticipate India being in a position to approach the cost and quality needed to be competitive with some of the top shipbuilding nations in the world.

 

[beegee]

With the decision having been made to select Sea Ceptor and remove the mk41 VLS, and to carry this missile trough to the ANZAC replacements, coupled with the replacement of the US search radar with a European radar, I wonder if it might make sense to go fully European with sensors and air defence weapons in the ANZAC replacement.

There would be certain benefits (and detriments) to this, at least on paper. For example, the Sylver A50 8 cell launcher weighs 8000kgs, while the equivalent MK41 Tactical Length 8 cell launcher weighs 13500kg, the A50 also has less deck penetration and a slightly smaller footprint. This allows small ships like the Singaporean Formidable class to mount 32 VLS cells (2 x A50 and 2 x A43) in a 115m, 3200t vessel. The A50 can launch Aster 30 and quad packed Sea Ceptor and because the Aster is active homing (unlike the SM-2) it can be guided by the relatively small and light Thales Herakles 3D search radar.

The combination of Aster 30, Sea Ceptor and Herakles would make quite a potent AD system.
The detriment would be the lack of missile varieties available for the Sylver system compared to the MK41.

Also, according to the below DCNS brocure, the A50 will be able to launch CAMM-ER when developed, so there's another option.
https://www.naval-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/sylver-multimissile-vertical-launcher.pdf

Anyhoo, just a thought.

 

[MrConservative]

Honestly I do not see India as being a viable competitor in the international shipbuilding marketplace, at least not for many years in a number of segments.

Sure in 5-10 years they wont be quite there - in 15-20 that is entirely a different matter.

Having looked at the current and near-future Indian Navy to get a better grasp of the latent industrial naval construction capability a few key points kind of stood out. The first is that a number of the currently active vessel classes originated overseas, with some being vessels exported to India, while others were joint overseas/Indian production of foreign designs.

The JV venture approach is their strategy. For example OMT coming in to work with Garden Reach. Naval construction is only a subset. The growth and competitiveness of Indian industrial capacity, not just shipbuilding is based on the global partnership approach, a modus operandi used by most mature and fast mover economies. India is the big player in the fast mover / emerging camp.

Going along further with this, the current and future Indian vessels seem to kitted out and armed with a mix of Euro and Israeli-sourced weapons and sensors, along with those or Soviet/Russian origin. Such an arrangement might work for a non-aligned nation, but I could easily see problems occurring for a nation that wants or has stronger ties to Western Bloc nations. Such a nation might want or need naval systems which are unavailable to India for security reasons, and/or the purchasing nation might be denied systems that originate in Russia, again for security reasons.

US Congress seeks major defence partner recognition for India

It is not like the major Western defence companies are ignoring India as well. I am surprised that you are not up to speed with what is going on with respect to India and its role geo-politically. Demonstrated by the change from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific since Shangri-La. The Indians are smart enough to realise that even Trump being a dunce at times is not going to derail the long term bromance started under Bush 43, greatly expanded under Obama.

Also, if one looks at current countries which fill overseas orders for ships, there are a few which stand out in Asia and Southeast Asia. S. Korea is likely the top one for ability to carry out a speedy, low-costing, and potentially complex ship build. Despite the comparatively high wages, S. Korea manages to achieve this by economies of scale. China would be next on the list, likely with an even lower cost though there could also be a decrease in quality and complexity. Vietnam has also emerged as a place to build vessel which can then be fitted out elsewhere, with Vietnam having taken some of the market share away from China by being able to achieve the same or better quality at an even lower cost. Some AusGov-ordered Damen designs come to mind as examples.

The sheer growth expansion in the Indian economy and the cross border trade is essentially the next main driver in the global shipping market to meet requirements. Where do you think India (which is starting to surpass China in annual growth rates and doubling its productive outputs every decade) is going to go to meet the demand for shipping that it is in itself generating?

For completed warships, I suspect that only some non-aligned nations would be interested in the fitouts that India produces.

That maybe the case out to the medium future.

For completed hulls which would be fitted out elsewhere, India would have a number of competitors that have already established track records where hulls were rapidly constructed at reasonable prices and of acceptable quality. In order for India to start getting market share then Indian yards would need to be competitive in terms of speed, cost, and quality.

You have just explained what the Indians are setting out to do.

 

[Todjaeger]

Much would depend on where gov't expects to send the RNZN, under what circumstances, and whom the RNZN would be operating alongside. These should (IMO anyway...) determine what capabilities the replacement frigates would require.

I would assume that the RAN and ADF as a whole would be major Kiwi partners. Given the current and emerging capabilities there like CEC, I would think at the RNZN might want to consider acquiring that capability as well. If that is the case, then it might make more sense for the future frigate to have US-sourced comms, sensors, and particularly the CMS. Of course if Canada also adopts CEC and integrates that capability into LockMart Canada's CMS 330 or a derivative of that, then more options might be open for the RNZN.

Otherwise I am fairly agnostic as to what ends up getting suggested at this point, since there is really quite little to go on in terms of requirements. One area I would suggest people consider though is not so much the specific weapons or sensor systems, but more what overall capability would get delivered to the RNZN, and then how that capability would integrate with the NZDF and defence partners.

 

[MrConservative]

With the decision having been made to select Sea Ceptor and remove the mk41 VLS, and to carry this missile trough to the ANZAC replacements, coupled with the replacement of the US search radar with a European radar, I wonder if it might make sense to go fully European with sensors and air defence weapons in the ANZAC replacement.

There would be certain benefits (and detriments) to this, at least on paper. For example, the Sylver A50 8 cell launcher weighs 8000kgs, while the equivalent MK41 Tactical Length 8 cell launcher weighs 13500kg, the A50 also has less deck penetration and a slightly smaller footprint. This allows small ships like the Singaporean Formidable class to mount 32 VLS cells (2 x A50 and 2 x A43) in a 115m, 3200t vessel. The A50 can launch Aster 30 and quad packed Sea Ceptor and because the Aster is active homing (unlike the SM-2) it can be guided by the relatively small and light Thales Herakles 3D search radar.

The combination of Aster 30, Sea Ceptor and Herakles would make quite a potent AD system.
The detriment would be the lack of missile varieties available for the Sylver system compared to the MK41.

Also, according to the below DCNS brocure, the A50 will be able to launch CAMM-ER when developed, so there's another option.
https://www.naval-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/sylver-multimissile-vertical-launcher.pdf

Anyhoo, just a thought.

The ANZAC upgrade is only that. An upgrade - that conveniently piggybacked on what the Canadians and RN were doing to get them through to a replacement in the early 2030's.

Personally, I would tend towards the FFG(X) specification fit out or closely similar as the ideal solution pathway (hull agnostic) but with Sea Ceptor using ExLS for local area AD and Mk41 VLS.

 

[Todjaeger]

Sure in 5-10 years they wont be quite there - in 15-20 that is entirely a different matter.

The sheer growth expansion in the Indian economy and the cross border trade is essentially the next main driver in the global shipping market to meet requirements. Where do you think India (which is starting to surpass China in annual growth rates and doubling its productive outputs every decade) is going to go to meet the demand for shipping that it is in itself generating?.

Not really a Kiwi-themed question so if we continue the discussion, perhaps we should move it to a more appropriate India-themed thread.

Over the last five years or so, the top four ship building countries by tonnage are China (PRC), S. Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Per the 2017 world shipbuilding gross tonnage numbers from the UN, these four countries account for over 93% of the new shipping tonnage built. India is 17th on the list in terms of gross tonnage built in 2017, or about 0.14% of the tonnage built in 2017. The fifth place country by tonnage, Romania, produced over six times the shipping tonnage that India did. Even if India were to double the shipping production, that would not exceed the amount produced by the 11th place country on the list, the US.

Now yes, over time India could certainly expand the shipbuilding production capacity as well as expand domestic design capabilities and improve QC. However shipbuilding is an infrastructure, workforce and capitally intensive capability that is also cyclical in nature. Absent a directive and support from the Indian gov't to drastically expand production, or domestic Indian shipping needs not being met by overseas yards, I do not really see India having a significant jump in capability. Having looked at info for S. Korea, I think tripling of production over a decade's time, provided of course there are sufficient orders or resources to justify such an expansion, might be possible. However, even if India's production capacity tripled it would still be less than that of Vietnam

From a cost perspective which would likely influence exports, I suspect India would be hard pressed to beat either the Philippines or Vietnam. Both have comparable per capita GDP (PPP) but significantly greater production capacity which enables an economy of scale and IIRC they have been expanding their production capabilities after some buyers have started shifting to lower costing production than China.

With the India economy rapidly expanding, I would expect that there is going to start being a greater push for improvements in pay and/or quality of life. If the skilled trades required for shipyard operations start getting increased wages, that would likely negatively impact the ability of work from Indian shipyards to be priced competitively.

Of course complete warship production is an even more specialized capability, with even greater involvement by gov't, but as already mentioned the current amalgamation of Euro, Israeli and Russian systems would likely be unacceptable to other countries unless they are non-aligned. For incomplete warships/hulls, then the likely ability of the shipyards of other countries to outproduce India with likely comparable production costs would lead to the work being sent elsewhere.

 

[MrConservative]

Over the last five years or so, the top four ship building countries by tonnage are China (PRC), S. Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Per the 2017 world shipbuilding gross tonnage numbers from the UN, these four countries account for over 93% of the new shipping tonnage built. India is 17th on the list in terms of gross tonnage built in 2017, or about 0.14% of the tonnage built in 2017. The fifth place country by tonnage, Romania, produced over six times the shipping tonnage that India did. Even if India were to double the shipping production, that would not exceed the amount produced by the 11th place country on the list, the US.

Attempting to extrapolate current or historical outputs as a sole determinant of production forecasting is not the methodology professional analysts use. You have to factor in the key drivers of that production which in India's case is 1. close to another China sized economic expansion out to 2050 and 2. the strategic necessity for it not be a client state when it comes to shipping and the SLOC those ships are using.

With respect adding Romania and the Philippines into your argument does not help your case they are not considered capable of the strategic and technical weight or possess the underlying economic and industrial performance drivers of where India is at. They are not the worlds 6th largest economy growing 7% p.a that will drive the demand on the scale that an emerging global power can achieve. They maybe too optimistic in getting their manned space program up before 2025, but the fact they are seriously pursuing it is indicative. Their Thorium MSR programme is ahead of China and Japan and has the potential to be a game changer over the next decade with respect to cheap energy.

Now yes, over time India could certainly expand the shipbuilding production capacity as well as expand domestic design capabilities and improve QC.

Good. Now what are the current macro-economic indicators which are going to make this happen?

However shipbuilding is an infrastructure, workforce and capitally intensive capability that is also cyclical in nature. Absent a directive and support from the Indian gov't to drastically expand production, or domestic Indian shipping needs not being met by overseas yards, I do not really see India having a significant jump in capability.

The key thing you are overlooking or more likely not aware of is that there is a top down directive and support program coming from the Modi government. It is one of the of keystone policy factors as India transforms its economy from low tech - agrarian & services into a growing multifactorial tech and engineering based exporter.

Having looked at info for S. Korea, I think tripling of production over a decade's time, provided of course there are sufficient orders or resources to justify such an expansion, might be possible. However, even if India's production capacity tripled it would still be less than that of Vietnam.

The growth created by its own internal demand creates that virtuous circle for orders which expands business, increases productivity and competitiveness.

From a cost perspective which would likely influence exports, I suspect India would be hard pressed to beat either the Philippines or Vietnam. Both have comparable per capita GDP (PPP) but significantly greater production capacity which enables an economy of scale and IIRC they have been expanding their production capabilities after some buyers have started shifting to lower costing production than China.

Good grief - how on earth does comparing PPP data have any effect on comparing industrial output variables or the potential for what will be the worlds 3rd largest economy by 2030 and is 6th at present and then in the same sentence mention China.

With the India economy rapidly expanding, I would expect that there is going to start being a greater push for improvements in pay and/or quality of life.

I don't expect it. It has actually been happening for quite a number of years.

If the skilled trades required for shipyard operations start getting increased wages, that would likely negatively impact the ability of work from Indian shipyards to be priced competitively.

Nope. The mass of economic data correlating around rising wages and conditions versus market competitiveness must include innovating, training and productivity.

Of course complete warship production is an even more specialized capability, with even greater involvement by gov't, but as already mentioned the current amalgamation of Euro, Israeli and Russian systems would likely be unacceptable to other countries unless they are non-aligned.

One would say that it they had ignored current events and politics over the last decade. A vessel built in an Indian yard (maybe on one of the 20 new facilities they intend to build as part of their national shipbuilding strategy) designed in association with a European naval architecture firm, that uses both some aspects from European, Israeli, UK and Canadian and possibly the US and Japan whom are very active in their defence engagement with India. A "NATO-ised" Project 17 Frigate for example. The Russian association with the INS and Indian defence procurement in general is on a decreasing trajectory as the nation pivots towards partnerships and self sufficiency. The concept of non aligned is practically dead and buried with respect to India - the rise of China has put paid to that.

So I disagree with your premise. It entirely possible in the decade after next / 2030's that India's status as a growing force in shipbuilding for commercial and naval will be cemented. Frankly you run run the risk of taking a contrarian view which can come across as patronising towards India. I accept that they may not be your intention. Countries like NZ and Australia have had friendly defence and trade relations with India and have long valued them. Post Brexit there is the UK desperate for engagement. And the US recognises the stability role and strategic hedge it plays in the southern hemisphere.

US elevates India’s defence trade status to Nato-level allies, Delhi welcomes move

I agree with President Obama that India-U.S. relations to be a 'defining partnership' for the 21st century.

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting statistics on ship building, fifth place Romania builds six times more by tonnage than India, amazing.

 

[KiwiRob]

Interesting statistics on ship building, fifth place Romania builds six times more by tonnage than India, amazing.

They build a lot of hulls and hull modules in Romania which are fitted out in Norway and other European countries. India is a difficult place to build a ship.

 

[Todjaeger]

They build a lot of hulls and hull modules in Romania which are fitted out in Norway and other European countries. India is a difficult place to build a ship.

I plan on continuing the discussion on Indian shipbuilding in the Indian Navy thread, so as to prevent polluting the RNZN thread. If you could provide insight into what/why India is a difficult place to build a ship, and/or what efforts are required to address those difficulties and to what the impact of those efforts would be, I would appreciate it.

 

[KiwiRob]

And to steer this back onto the RNZN thread I postulate this question which deliberately will challenge some preconceptions - could New Zealand and other western aligned nations possibly buy Indian built naval vessels in 15 years when it comes time to renew our fleet? In my view that possibly cannot be discounted and will likely become more obvious as we move towards that date.

I'm sorry but I wouldn't touch an India built ship with a barge pole, let alone go onboard. They cut corners, they don't follow the design, there steel work is shoddy, they buy the cheapest equipment they can find, the purchasing process it ridiculous, 50 page contracts for €200 of equipment, good know what's it's like supplying a propulsion unit or navigation equipment, that must be a nightmare. Every person I know who works in the Indian market has horror stories about even the smallest deals, a lot of companies enter and leave pretty quickly.

On the flip side they are going gangbusters in oil & gas engineering, most of the engineering that was done in Aberdeen, Houston and Stavanger is now done in engineering sweatshops in India, for the price of one engineer in the cities I mentioned they can have 5-10 in India, they're cheap as chips.

 

[htbrst]

Royal New Zealand Navy
RNZN Facebook sounding pretty proud about Te Mana taking out the surface fire support competition at RIMPAC (link above).

I found this quote in the Navy Today initial report on RIMPAC funnier than I perhaps should have:

As I sit here writing this article, a RNZAF P3-K2 Orion has just targeted our enemy Mission Essential Unit (MEU) HMAS ADELAIDE, for which we are now providing a firing solution with our paper load-out of Surface-to-Surface Missiles. Again, as in Ocean Explorer 18, TE MANA as the OPFOR will gain a Mission Kill within the opening hours of the exercise

And on paper they shall stay

 

[ngatimozart]

I found this quote in the Navy Today initial report on RIMPAC funnier than I perhaps should have:
And on paper they shall stay

The RNZN still take gunnery very seriously and in the days of the Leanders were known to go one over, one under, next round on target, whilst the USN, with all the gee whizz gear, were still trying to find the target. It's a hangover from the old RN days and I would not be surprised if the RAN, RCN and RN still have the same strength in gunnery.

Yes I totally agree about the SSM. It is a capability very sadly lacking in the RNZN.

 

[htbrst]

The HMNZS Manawanui replacement has been announced:

Govt buys new navy ship with remaining money after frigate blowout

Next year, the Royal New Zealand Navy would welcome the 85-metre Norwegian-built mulit-role offshore support vessel, the MV Edda Fonn...

The project budget for the purchase, modifications and introduction into service of the dive and hydrographic ship is $103 million...

The ship, which was under lease until the end of 2018, would be modified and in service by November 2019.

Edit: Heres some current pics and info on size/tonnage etc: Vessel details for: EDDA FONN (Research/Survey Vessel) - IMO 9273662, MMSI 257211000, Call Sign LMER3 Registered in Norway | AIS Marine Traffic

2003 buil, Gross tonnage 4505 Tonnes

 

[spoz]

As a design she looks pretty good, but she is 15 years old already; and $103 million seems quite a lot for a ship that age even if it does include modification costs

 

[Kiwigov]

Looking at the specs, she seems a marked advance in capability - helo deck for a start (which can take a NH90?), major improvement in crane capacity, on-board offices and hospital - and a sauna and sunbed!
Don't know about possible armament positioning - perhaps 0.50 cal systems could be located on either side of the bridge?
Built in 2003, so younger than the Manawanui was when she entered service

 

[ngatimozart]

More about it:

• overall length of 84.7m, or 75m between perpendiculars,
  
• breadth of 18m,
  
• 9.1m moulded depth,
  
• registered tonnage of 4,505gt and registers a deadweight of 2,354t,
  
• The vessel has sufficient storage for
  • 1,113m³ of marine oil,
  • 428.1m³ of fresh water,
  • 1,883.1m³ of ballast water,
• two Effer 17tm cranes that can carry out a 1.62t lift at 10.29m,
  
• Heila 15tm provision crane that can lift 1.1t at 14.76m,
  
• 10t Karmøy tugger winch,
  
• Hydramarine 1.1t 2,500m wire transponder winch,
  
• deck area of 700m²,
  
• a 41m cargo deck length and a capacity of 800t,
  
• flight deck is designed for Super Puma (9.3t),
  
• accommodation is 41 cabins with 66 bunks,
  
• enclosed ROV hanger / workshop and an ROV transformer room,
  
• gymnasium, sauna, sunbed, three dayrooms, duty mess, mess room and galley,
  
• 7.2m x 7.2m moonpool,
  
• 1.2m diameter mini-moonpool prepared for a multibeam echosounder,
  
• main propulsion is a diesel electric propulsion plant,
  • four 1,820kW diesel powered generator sets giving an output of 7,680kW / 10,445bhp,
    
  • 388kW harbour generator with a 690V / 60Hz output,
    
  • two AC asynchronous water-cooled motors each rating 2,200kW (2,992bhp) at 1,192.5rpm,
    
  • two diesel-electric driven Steerprop ST-35 azimuth propellers. The propellers have a diameter of 3m,
    
  • There are also two electrically-driven tunnel thrusters located in the bow with an output of approx. 1,150kW each,
  • In addition, there is a super-silent type and a retractable thruster with an output of 1,350kW.
    
  • maximum speed of 15.5 knots at 30t/day or,
  • for economy, 13 knots at 14t/day.
  • It uses 6t/day for DP-operations (dependent on weather).
• The Edda Fonn is classified by DnV with the notation X 1A1, SF, Comfort-C(3)-V(3), HELDK-SH, E0, DynPos AUTR, CLEAN, ICE C, PMS, ISM

Overall I think, from memory, it covers many of the bases that the original LOSC RFI required.

Edda Fonn - Ship Technology