When I read the new defense plan, I didn't see any mention of replacing the P-3 Orions. Maybe ASW patrol is a capability that is going to be dropped as there aren't a large number of submarines operating in the South Pacific. Sea search and rescue patrols can be done with much smaller and less expensive aircraft...
While there is going to be a replacement for the C-130 Hercules, I prefer the Embraer KC-390 aircraft. Its large enough to carry the NZ LAVIIIs and can be used as a tanker. I would think they could also do sea search and rescue patrols as well.
As Ngatimozart mentioned, the C-130 and P-3 replacement programmes are anticipated in the 2015 DWP. Having said that, there is indeed a need for ASW, and that need has the potential to increase a great deal over the next few decades.
A number of ASEAN countries are looking at acquiring or expanding their submarine fleets. In addition, China is expanding their sub fleet, as well as the area in which it operates in. While it is indeed true that NZ might not have any of these nations start operating subs near NZ, subs are already operating along maritime trade routes which shipping to and from NZ uses.
With respect to the KC-390... I just do not see that as a real option for NZ. Apart from the questions whether Embraer can/will build it while meeting projected costs, timelines and capabilities, there is the whole question of whether the design is relevant to NZ needs. First, the KC-390 has underslung jet engines. While this are capable of performing some rough field ops (C-17's sometimes do it, as do others with special mods to the turbines), due to the danger of debris being ingested by the turbine jets do not have the same rough field performance as props do. Depending on what/where NZ anticipates operating, this is a potential issue. The second issue is that of aircraft performance itself. There is some concern that the C-130J might not have sufficient range, payload and outsized cargo capacity to meet NZ airlift needs, which is why the A400M has been repeatedly mentioned. The KC-390 AFAIK is supposed to deliver comparable airlift to that of the C-130, and if that is determined to be too small...
Also worth bearing in mind is what sort of risk NZ can afford to take with its medium/heavy airlift. If the KC-390 is available (in production/IOC) at the time NZ is looking to replace the C-130H's, then NZ would either be one of the launch customers, or at least one of the earliest ones. Given the small size of the NZ airlift fleet and distance from the aircraft production and other users, the logistical train to support the KC-390 could be higher than is reasonable for NZ. Particularly if other medium/heavy airlifters are in service with Australia and other nearby nations.
The C130, tactical transport and P3 replacement issues are being left to the 2015 Defence White Paper. We don't do SAR patrols per se, only as requested by the SARHQ in Wellington which is a civilian organisation. I don't know if the RNZAF would be overly keen on the KC390 or not.
In reply to Todjaeger Air NZ is replacing all of its B737-300s with A320s the first was supposed to have been delivered in January this year
Air NZ to replace domestic Boeing 737-300 fleet with A320s | BUSINESS News These will replace all the Air NZ B737s in the fleet. Freedom Air is history and its aircraft absorbed into Air NZs fleet. But I presume that Air NZ Engineering will still have B737 engineering servicing and maintenance contracts with other airlines because I have quite often see foreign B737s parked up at the Christchurch Air NZ engineering base. They also have the joint venture with P&W Engines at the Christchurch engineering base as well.
In answer to Tods comment about the A320 airframe I would presume that any improvements and modifications would be built into new airframes during production. That would be logical wouldn't it? Especially as the A319-MPA aircraft is for all intents and purposes a new airframe. It has to be because they are cutting a bloody big hole in the bottom so that we came drop various nefarious devices out of it.
Well, I have not been reading Aviation Leakly lately, so I certainly have been missing some of the recent civilian airliner orders which have been booked.
However, I would not automatically assume that any A319/A320 MPA would be using either new airframes, or incorporating some of the recent improvements for the A320 neo. IMO unless there is significant interest for such an MPA, Airbus or Airbus Military is unlikely to add and additional production line, and increasing the rate of A320 neo production might not be an option depending on the facilities. With that in mind, and the interest already exhibited in the commercial aviation market, much of the A320 neo production looks like it is 'locked in' for commercial use. I recall a similar situation occurring when the RAAF and RAF were ordering their A330 MRTT's, where commercial demand for the A330 was outstripping the rate of production. The RAAF and RAF orders had already been placed which is why they were in the pipeline, but when some other nations expressed interest they had to start looking at the A330 secondary market and having a tanker conversion done.
Plus there is also the question of just how much effort and resources Airbus wishes to devote to developing an MPA and getting the new aircraft through the needed certification processes. Given the lead which Boeing seems to have with the P-8 Poseidon, unless Airbus can make an A319 or A320 MPA which has comparable performance but a significant initial and/or ongoing cost advantage, I just do not see such a design being in the interests of Airbus. I do think it would be better for Airbus to put more effort into attracting orders for smaller, short to mid-ranged MPA based off the C-295 or CN-235 platforms, but that is just IMO.
Incidentally, one of the things which I think would have been good to develop, was a long-ranged replacement MPA which was also a prop like the P-3, perhaps based off the C-130 or even A400M. Props, while typically slower than jets (there are exceptions...) are also typically more efficient, particularly at lower operating speeds AFAIK. Given that one of the things an MPA is supposed to do is just loiter over areas for prolonged periods of time, they do not need to do so quickly. With something like a C-130 which is known for having long range, which can be an indication for a high loiter time, plus the ability to carry a payload and space, the internals could have been modified into a bomb bay as well as a mission deck. Oh well, perhaps someone will end up doing so at some point.
-Cheers
