Also interesting the Pacific Aerospace are delivering 750XL's to military end users. Maybe there could be a place for it in the RNZAF??? Supporting local industry is always a good idea.
Royal New Zealand Air Force
- Thread starter Lucasnz
- Start date
IIRC Wayne Mapp made noises along the 750XL line & I suspect RNZAF told him it wasn't needed / wanted as NH90 & KingAir offer all they need in this size class. Got to be careful not to be seen supporting a pollies pet project too, god knows just flying a pollie around now makes headlines...!
... however I think it has great military potential, esp. for the likes of PNG. May be a better idea for NZ Army to get a couple & use them on rough strips... if such a move could garner international interest then why the hell not!?!
With the 1st of 4 PNGDF's PAC P-750's ready for delivery I hope they make a song and dance about it when they are delivered. Maybe the NZ Govt could use some of Winston's billion Foreign Affairs Aid to donate some P-750's to Fiji, Tonga and Samoa as utility transports. What are the CAA regs for single enginePT6A-34's over water?IIRC Wayne Mapp made noises along the 750XL line & I suspect RNZAF told him it wasn't needed / wanted as NH90 & KingAir offer all they need in this size class. Got to be careful not to be seen supporting a pollies pet project too, god knows just flying a pollie around now makes headlines...!
... however I think it has great military potential, esp. for the likes of PNG. May be a better idea for NZ Army to get a couple & use them on rough strips... if such a move could garner international interest then why the hell not!?!
Incidently, PAC have introduced the E-350 Expedition which they intend offering a floatplane version as well.
Two recent media articles regarding the C130H(NZ) and P-3K2 replacement. Both articles mention the age of the platforms and the increasing costs, risks and difficulties keeping them operational.
Defence spending rises welcome but real test is replacing Hercules and Orion
Air Force planes run into engine troubles
Defence spending rises welcome but real test is replacing Hercules and Orion
Air Force planes run into engine troubles
Finally the media reports on things we have known about for years.
I really do not want this current government to make a replacement on the P-3K2/FASC because they will downgrade capability. The rush from 2 years ago is not as urgent with respect to the order book as South Korea likely to order between 12 - 20 A models later this year. Turkey are possibly getting an undisclosed number and the Saudi's are also interested. Once Junior is kicked out of office the Canadians will possibly be in the market as well.
David Broome's article is very superficial - David who I have meet a couple of times is no defence analyst. He has cobbled together an article based on other articles in the MSM and done a bit of googling. The HC-130J that he ponders has less capability than a P-3K2. Fine as a moonlighting capability to support SAR/ISR in the maritime domain provided by the P-8A but it is no replacement for a tier 1 capability.
What might happen is that this government orders a C-130 variant - spin it (tell lies in other words) as a replacement for both the C-130H and P-3K2. This will mean that in a couple of years when adults are back in charge of Defence to reorder the P-8A.
HMS Warspite
New Member
When is your opinion editorial running?Finally the media reports on things we have known about for years.
I really do not want this current government to make a replacement on the P-3K2/FASC because they will downgrade capability. The rush from 2 years ago is not as urgent with respect to the order book as South Korea likely to order between 12 - 20 A models later this year. Turkey are possibly getting an undisclosed number and the Saudi's are also interested. Once Junior is kicked out of office the Canadians will possibly be in the market as well.
David Broome's article is very superficial - David who I have meet a couple of times is no defence analyst. He has cobbled together an article based on other articles in the MSM and done a bit of googling. The HC-130J that he ponders has less capability than a P-3K2. Fine as a moonlighting capability to support SAR/ISR in the maritime domain provided by the P-8A but it is no replacement for a tier 1 capability.
What might happen is that this government orders a C-130 variant - spin it (tell lies in other words) as a replacement for both the C-130H and P-3K2. This will mean that in a couple of years when adults are back in charge of Defence to reorder the P-8A.
Our OPEDs are spread through out the NZ fora. Have a read through.
For the P-3K2 replacement the least risky option is the P-8A, because apart from the P-1, anything else would not be fit for purpose. If they only have until July 2018 to make a decision then waiting for the adults to take over may not be an option with regard to a P-8A acquisition. IIRC at present 2022 is the manufacturing cutoff, and long lead cutoff times would probably be around 2020. Whilst it is surmised that SK and others may acquire the P-8A, it is not certain that they will. Plus Turkey may have trouble acquiring the P-8A because of security concerns. There is a move afoot in the Congress to have Turkey barred from acquiring the F-35, so if that goes through a P-8A acquisition would raise the same concerns. I wouldn't count on the Canadians - I won't believe it until I see the aircraft achieve IOC with the RCAF.Finally the media reports on things we have known about for years.
I really do not want this current government to make a replacement on the P-3K2/FASC because they will downgrade capability. The rush from 2 years ago is not as urgent with respect to the order book as South Korea likely to order between 12 - 20 A models later this year. Turkey are possibly getting an undisclosed number and the Saudi's are also interested. Once Junior is kicked out of office the Canadians will possibly be in the market as well.
David Broome's article is very superficial - David who I have meet a couple of times is no defence analyst. He has cobbled together an article based on other articles in the MSM and done a bit of googling. The HC-130J that he ponders has less capability than a P-3K2. Fine as a moonlighting capability to support SAR/ISR in the maritime domain provided by the P-8A but it is no replacement for a tier 1 capability.
What might happen is that this government orders a C-130 variant - spin it (tell lies in other words) as a replacement for both the C-130H and P-3K2. This will mean that in a couple of years when adults are back in charge of Defence to reorder the P-8A.
If they order say six KC-130J then that would be an ok acquisition. The crunch is age, time and ever increasing operational costs with the present C-130H(NZ) aircraft. Whilst the A400M is being operated by the RAF alongside our French, German and Malaysian friends, it is still quite a risky acquisition from a NZ perspective. Even though the C-2 has a limited production run compared to the A400M IMO, the C-2 would be the less riskier option of the two. There could also be greater diplomatic, defence and economic advantages to a Japanese acquisition, rather than an European acquisition. If the C130-J is acquired the a C-2 acquisition as strategic airlifter can wait until around 2023. However if the C-2 / A400M is acquired as the C-130 replacement, then a smaller platform would have to be acquired as well and that wouldn't offer the same capability options that a C-2 / KC-130J acquisition would offer.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
P-8s for Canada is not likely with or without junior in office. The F-35 is probably the leading contender at the moment because the major obstacle, price, is no longer a negative. The biggest problem right now could be the Ontario provincial election. If the socialist NDP wins as predicted, our dollar will fall and economic disaster in Ontario will continue to get worse. Bond rating agencies will not be impressed. The economy will replace junior as defence's biggest obstacle.
The RoK Defence Agency hold the view that the P-8A will have a clear advantage over the PRC's Y-8MPA and Gaoshin 6. In February they took the decision that their P-3 replacement would ideally have a larger weapons load than the P-3. The RoK have recently ordered 4 RQ-4B and platform integration is a factor in their ultimate selection. I would be very very surprised that they did not go with the P-8. Decision pending later this year.
recce.k1
Well-Known Member
Good post - so who is David Broome nowadays when "not at home" (as a public affairs consultant & former chief of staff to Winston Peters/NZF Party, oh and defending the dignity of ANZAC Day last yearFinally the media reports on things we have known about for years.
I really do not want this current government to make a replacement on the P-3K2/FASC because they will downgrade capability. The rush from 2 years ago is not as urgent with respect to the order book as South Korea likely to order between 12 - 20 A models later this year. Turkey are possibly getting an undisclosed number and the Saudi's are also interested. Once Junior is kicked out of office the Canadians will possibly be in the market as well.
David Broome's article is very superficial - David who I have meet a couple of times is no defence analyst. He has cobbled together an article based on other articles in the MSM and done a bit of googling. The HC-130J that he ponders has less capability than a P-3K2. Fine as a moonlighting capability to support SAR/ISR in the maritime domain provided by the P-8A but it is no replacement for a tier 1 capability.
What might happen is that this government orders a C-130 variant - spin it (tell lies in other words) as a replacement for both the C-130H and P-3K2. This will mean that in a couple of years when adults are back in charge of Defence to reorder the P-8A.
) e.g. I've not noticed a Defence article from him before? Is he writing in a personal capacity on a topic that interests him (if so kudos to him) or is he perhaps now a paid mouthpiece of the Coalition Govt (NZF Party) undertaking a PR campaign and softening up public opinion on the Labour/NZF Coalition Govt potentially either stalling the P-8 acquisition or ruling it out altogether?Although aspects of his article was fair in terms of laying out the issues (and better than general MSM journos), there were some odd-ball comments and elements of spin towards the end. Take for instance the C-130H's ("old fleets & catastrophic failures"), this article refers to the RNZAF C-130H's extensive airframe and avionics upgrades as part of the Life Extension Project eg "the airframe has been significantly refurbished, including the large job of replacing the centre wing section and adding a Fatigue Analysis Monitoring System (FAMS). 98% of the wiring has been replaced, with over 85kmworth of wiring added". I recall RobC I think, writing here saying he was briefed on the project (in a private capacity) and said the C-130H's could fly for longer as a result. Of course I also do recall discussions here on how the engines weren't upgraded as part of the Life Extension Project and were a weak link accordingly.
But the "spin" that aroused my suspicions was in the conclusions:
It's also an Orion contender if we do not go with the P-8A Poseidon. The United States Coast Guard's long-range maritime surveillance Hercules achieves 70 per cent of the Orion's current mission capability, but at a fraction of the Poseidon's cost. The remaining 30 per cent, anti-submarine warfare, can be delivered as Budget-friendly upgrades before the Orion's retire.
I don't recall there being an international C-130 ASW variant in operation, if so, in regards to NZ potentially being the first customer and "delivered as budget-friendly upgrades", is this wishful thinking or is this actually a "fact" from LM presented to the MoD/NZG? If so can NZ be sure it won't be lumbered with extensive development costs that in all likelyhood NZ cannot afford (and as an orphan customer)? Also what happened to the de-risking strategy the last Government brought in that NZ wouldn't be procuring capabilities that were not proven (and therefore risky and likely to be delays). Then:
And unlike dedicated aircraft like the Poseidon, any equipment on a multi-mission C-130J is palletised, allowing quick conversion back into cargo aircraft. This is a capability which, being on the Pacific ring of fire, with climate change and policing the world's largest maritime area of responsibility, we need more of, not less.
Well if that's not a clear message the P-8 is out of contention then I'll eat my hat! And why conflate two different, but critically needed, capabilities (FAMC/C-130J/KC-390 and FASC/P-8)?Again in what capacity is Broome writing - personal opinion/conjecture or "paid opinion"?
Now to the DefMin, Ron Mark, from the so-called "pro-defence party - NZF", the only politician in recent times that has extensively and repeatedly criticised (all former) govt defence acquisitions, sometimes to the point of absurdity (everything from NH-90's to the recent potential C-17 acquisition).
If this guy (and his leader) fails to advocate for the platform that the NZDF identified as being it's No1 choice - the P-8 (not paper project maritime SC-130J variants etc) - because of its seamless inter-operability, training and support with NZ's 5-Eye partner nations (and so much so the last NZG obtained US Department of State approval), then not only has he failed to "walk the talk" when it comes to defence acquisitions when he finally got his chance to show leadership from the top, but he, his leader and "pro-defence NZF Party" have failed NZ and importantly NZ's allies, namely Australia (who sent a P-8 here this year to give the likes of Ron Mark a close up look at its capabilities) and of the US ... the two very countries that NZ's Foreign Affairs "Pacific reset" policy is trying to better engage in the South Pacific and as a now very public counter to China's use of soft-power in the Pacific. If the NZF leader can get $1bn of new funding for his Foreign Affairs portfolio and this "Pacific reset", NZ'ers will fail to agree that the same cannot be done for the P-8, which as you have explained before Mr C would not be a budget cost item in the short term i.e. likely to have very minimal impact on the Govt's budget this year and next etc.
So for the likes of David Broome, Ron Mark as DefMin, Winston Peters as Foreign Affairs Minister and Deputy PM (soon to be Acting-PM), the ball is in your court, will they have the courage to stand up for not only the NZDF and its wishes, but NZ and its reputation with its closest and most dependable allies, especially in concert with it's new Foreign Affairs policy, which if it is to be given greater credibility then it needs to be "backed up" with muscle not whimpiness.
With NZF selling out its policy again today (supporting Labour & Greens on the removal of the 3-strikes criminal offending legislation), how much will NZF forsake its credibility (and political survivability) with its core supporters, when it is now consistently polling under the threshold to make it back into Parliament? To badly paraphrase Apocalypse Now's Lt Col. Kilgore: "Someday this parliamentary term is gonna end".....
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40 deg south
Well-Known Member
I don't want to be negative, but single-term governments a very much a rarity in NZ. The last one was Labour 1972-75, highlighted by the death in office of their popular leader, the OPEC oil price shock and the Opposition choosing a fiery populist as leader. Before that, you have to go back to Labour 1957-60, where the 1958 'Black Budget' taxes on beer and smokes were wildly unpopular. Less well remarked is that the hapless Walter Nash was NZ's oldest PM (leaving office aged 78) and he and his government appeared very out of touch with the post-war mood.
For the current government to lose the 2020 election, they will have to be utterly hopeless and the Opposition will have to be very convincing. Both of these are possible, but by no means a certainty by any stretch.
As I'm sure you are well aware!
40 deg south
Well-Known Member
That is precisely my question, too. Is he simply another retired Parliamentary hanger-on fond of the sound of his own voice, or has his Glorious Leader asked him to begin softening up the public for a low-cost defence acquisition? I'm confident he would never do anything that would go against Winston's wishes.Good post - so who is David Broome nowadays when "not at home" (as a public affairs consultant & former chief of staff to Winston Peters/NZF Party, oh and defending the dignity of ANZAC Day last year
It will be interesting to see if any more articles in a similar vein emerge - if they do it is evidence of an organised campaign.
A U.S Marine KC-130 has arrived at Whenuapai today. It arrived at 14.00 and conducted several approaches and disappeared for a while and landed back late in the afternoon.
The Orions have been busy as well.
I don't know if the Beechcrafts that came in a few days ago are the new ones or our current ones.
The Orions have been busy as well.
I don't know if the Beechcrafts that came in a few days ago are the new ones or our current ones.
If the Kingairs are grey with black roundels, they are the new ones; B35oi. If they are white and blues with red, white and blue roundels they are the old B200s.
t68
Well-Known Member
I remember MR C putting up the RFI? and the nice to have additions(have been trying to find that information again) that the AAR was a nice to have ability for RNZAF within the FAMC and indeed the overall enablers KC-130J(Harvest Hawk) can become a very flexible tool from AAR to CAS/overwatch to just simple MPA duties to NZG.
My one concern is if RNZAF was to make use of these capabilities and the vision by government is a one for one replacement, with such a small pool of aircraft(5) and the rotary fleet cannot make use of the additional capabilities and the most likely avenue for transporting is via RNZN is it worth the additional expenditure over a vanilla aircraft?
The trouble is, the King Airs are quiet and by the time I've heard their engines and gone outside, they're off in the distance coming in to land.
2 of the T-6C came in to land at Whenuapai this afternoon and I heard them before I saw them.
The pollies said that our A-4K Skyhawks were munted. Well they were old, but now live a life flying and fighting as Aggressors for the USAF as DACT. Draken contracted to continue USAF ‘Red Air’ support | Jane's 360 You will notice that they still carry the Kiwi roundel on the fuselage.
The PLAAF has come to play in exercise Skytrain with an Il-76 which arrived yesterday. China is the only other country participating this year
A bit of politicing in the only article I could see on the excercise - NZ exercising our independent foreign policy by thumbing our noses at the US by letting them participate: Defence Secretary Mattis says friends don't have to choose between US and China - and NZ doesn't
Photos of the Il-76 arriving at Whenuapai: MRC Aviation: Highlight of 2018!
A bit of politicing in the only article I could see on the excercise - NZ exercising our independent foreign policy by thumbing our noses at the US by letting them participate: Defence Secretary Mattis says friends don't have to choose between US and China - and NZ doesn't
Photos of the Il-76 arriving at Whenuapai: MRC Aviation: Highlight of 2018!
An audio report on the cost of running the Hercules and Orions in their old age based on OIA requests. Ron Mark (defense minister) saying a decision needs to be made on purchasing the P-8's before the end of July.
NZDF spends nearly $360m on old aircraft fleet
The end of July is getting pretty close...
NZDF spends nearly $360m on old aircraft fleet
The end of July is getting pretty close...