Thanks Mr C.
Has anyone attempted to look at the P-8 order-book and work out how long the current production run is likely to be?
Boeing were supposedly pushing production up to 1.5 aircraft/month this year. It would be normal to drop that back down once the end of the run is in sight, but how long does that give us to place an order?
There are a couple of interesting comments on another NZ aviation forum, with someone claiming that spares availability is becoming an issue for the P-3Cs. I'm not sure how believable it is? - there are still plenty of Orions in service world-wide.
There is an urgency matter with respect to timing more than a lack of parts. For example from time to time the RNZAF have had to borrow parts from P-3's undergoing DLM at Safe Air to keep flightline aircraft operational. They can eventually track down what they want but not in a time critical phase that will be able to keep the Sqd meeting mandatory tasking. The USN winding down P-3 will make things tighter for all operators who over time have each developed considerable differences, which again compounds things.
The fact that the basic airframe is a type certed 737-800 ERX airframe which Boeing hopes to continue with in a BCF variant when current P-8 production ends (eyeing up 757-200 freighter replacement market) probably does not mean the panic button alarm is the same as the C-17. That said though a decision made earlier the better is prudent because sub-contracted supplier lead in times will be required multiple months ahead.
Of course the election of Trump will see a possible boost to some defence production which may include additional numbers of the P-8 from the current force level. That Trump effect will also be politically in play when the NZDF looks to replace the P-3K2. Because buying non American will not go down too well for us in Donaldland.