Royal New Zealand Air Force

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I see that a USAF C40 has been in and out of Whenuapai a couple of times recently. Appears to be no problem for B737 to fly direct to Nadi from Whenuapai. Just saying.
It,s only 2154 Km to Nandi which is a little over one third the a C40A's range, roughly about the same as going to Australia, so the aircraft would have been fairly light.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It,s only 2154 Km to Nandi which is a little over one third the a C40A's range, roughly about the same as going to Australia, so the aircraft would have been fairly light.
Not necessarily. We don't know the loading or how long it was in Nadi for. Might've been a tech stop - might not have been either. Really moot actually because the aircraft can have a tech stop any where it needs to and it is the mission that is important. Regarding the P8 and possibly a B737-x it is not writ in stone that they will be based at Whenuapai anyway. It was stated in both the FAMC & FASC RFIs that Defence was open to operating the assets from another base if required, so the current basing of 5 & 40 Sqns is not to be taken as an impediment to a respondents reply.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Runway length at WP is likely to not be an issue over the longer term. Here is why.

WP sits on around 310 hectares of flat stable land with residential housing rapidly encroaching its boundaries. There was a policy paper done a few years back which indicated that more than 5000 dwellings could be built on the base if it was rezoned residential and even double that if it was zoned medium to high density residential. With the government needing a urgent solution to the rapid growth of Auckland and the necessity of meeting residential housing growth demands over the next 20 years WP's days are frankly numbered as a RNZAF base.

AIA at Mangere is to expand next decade anyway and the possible solution would be to build a compact airbase incorporated as part of the overall future AIA plan so that Auckland still retains a defence aviation facility within its metropolitan area.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Not necessarily. We don't know the loading or how long it was in Nadi for. Might've been a tech stop - might not have been either. Really moot actually because the aircraft can have a tech stop any where it needs to and it is the mission that is important. Regarding the P8 and possibly a B737-x it is not writ in stone that they will be based at Whenuapai anyway. It was stated in both the FAMC & FASC RFIs that Defence was open to operating the assets from another base if required, so the current basing of 5 & 40 Sqns is not to be taken as an impediment to a respondents reply.
The aircraft did stay overnight so it would be unusual to carry extra fuel as this increases fuel use.I agree with Mr C that a possible solution is AIA for the P8, if its selected. Reading up on the P8/P1 while the P8 seems to have some tech advantages , the P1 also has some advantages. It's low slow handling and larger windows would give it an advantage for SAR and its 360 degree radar coverage with air to air mode means it can operate as a basic AEWAL role, plus its runway performance does not constrict its operating locations as much as the P8 also it does not need specialist weapons release attachments for torpedoes or sonobuoys the P1 also does not need a drone to do the MAD work. https://battlemachines.wordpress.co...s-kawasaki-p-1-the-comparison-of-modern-mpas/
 
Last edited:

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The aircraft did stay overnight so it would be unusual to carry extra fuel as this increases fuel use.I agree with Mr C that a possible solution is AIA for the P8, if its selected. Reading up on the P8/P1 while the P8 seems to have some tech advantages , the P1 also has some advantages. It's low slow handling and larger windows would give it an advantage for SAR and its 360 degree radar coverage with air to air mode means it can operate as a basic AEWAL role, plus its runway performance does not constrict its operating locations as much as the P8 also it does not need specialist weapons release attachments for torpedoes or sonobuoys the P1 also does not need a drone to do the MAD work. https://battlemachines.wordpress.co...s-kawasaki-p-1-the-comparison-of-modern-mpas/
The P1 is a good aircraft but the P8 has capabilities and synergies not available with the P1 and that will be the difference. The P8 is part of the Boeing 737 maintenance and sustainment program which will keep the long term costs down. It is part of the 5i's defence grouping as well and that is an important consideration as well at a political, diplomatic and defence level.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The P1 is a good aircraft but the P8 has capabilities and synergies not available with the P1 and that will be the difference. The P8 is part of the Boeing 737 maintenance and sustainment program which will keep the long term costs down. It is part of the 5i's defence grouping as well and that is an important consideration as well at a political, diplomatic and defence level.
The defence capability plan review by Defence news is interesting in regard to the link to the KC390 which the following statement.A senior Embraer executive also revealed that the manufacturer is considering the development of a maritime patrol version of its new E190-E2 commercial airliner at the invitation of the New Zealand government to meet a forthcoming RFI for a Future Air Surveillance Capability. With an interesting referral to a maritime KC390
with the above info I would not write anything off at this stage and I would not consider the P 8 a done deal ,In fact if the above report is true I think we have a wide open playing field.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The defence capability plan review by Defence news is interesting in regard to the link to the KC390 which the following statement.A senior Embraer executive also revealed that the manufacturer is considering the development of a maritime patrol version of its new E190-E2 commercial airliner at the invitation of the New Zealand government to meet a forthcoming RFI for a Future Air Surveillance Capability. With an interesting referral to a maritime KC390
with the above info I would not write anything off at this stage and I would not consider the P 8 a done deal ,In fact if the above report is true I think we have a wide open playing field.
Well then they had better hurry up and have a minimum of IOC before the NZG will look at it. That was specifically mentioned both in the FASC and FAMC RFIs. Realistically either isn't going to happen because of this and same with the much vaunted Sea Herc which has never made it off paper. With the USN, RAF and RAAF operating P8s that is the most logical choice for us for many reasons. If not the P8 then the P1 will be the next cab off the block.

For the first part of the FAMC, I would prefer the KC390 to the C130J and if Embraer can guarantee having one here in Kiwi colours by Feb 2020, then they will have a pretty good chance. It will be between them and the C130J.
 

SteveR

Active Member
Well then they had better hurry up and have a minimum of IOC before the NZG will look at it. That was specifically mentioned both in the FASC and FAMC RFIs. Realistically either isn't going to happen because of this and same with the much vaunted Sea Herc which has never made it off paper. With the USN, RAF and RAAF operating P8s that is the most logical choice for us for many reasons. If not the P8 then the P1 will be the next cab off the block.

For the first part of the FAMC, I would prefer the KC390 to the C130J and if Embraer can guarantee having one here in Kiwi colours by Feb 2020, then they will have a pretty good chance. It will be between them and the C130J.
According to NavyRecognition website yesterday Norway has announced it will purchase 5 P-8As to replace its 6 P-3s and 3 DA-20 Falcon EW aircraft.

The numbers for the final P-8 production batch are increasing (USN + UK + India + Norway) and hopefully unit prices decreasing!
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Well then they had better hurry up and have a minimum of IOC before the NZG will look at it. That was specifically mentioned both in the FASC and FAMC RFIs. Realistically either isn't going to happen because of this and same with the much vaunted Sea Herc which has never made it off paper. With the USN, RAF and RAAF operating P8s that is the most logical choice for us for many reasons. If not the P8 then the P1 will be the next cab off the block.

For the first part of the FAMC, I would prefer the KC390 to the C130J and if Embraer can guarantee having one here in Kiwi colours by Feb 2020, then they will have a pretty good chance. It will be between them and the C130J.
The interesting part was that the proposal was at the invitation of the NZ government, which would indicate that the net is being cast very wide indeed. I think price in relation to ability will be critical, It would appear that this quote regarding the E190 was pre RFI. In regard to the KC390 I agree that it would be a better choice to replace the Herk's however as a maritime aircraft it must be remembered that some of the work has already been done with the Canadian SAR bid. In regard to the P8, the question will be are the Government prepared to by the extra weapons release gear and drones to make it effective?
 

pea032

New Member
Given how Gerry Brownlee has been saying that we will be getting 4 aircraft to replace the P-3s I would say that the P8 has pretty much got it in the bag at this stage.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The interesting part was that the proposal was at the invitation of the NZ government, which would indicate that the net is being cast very wide indeed. I think price in relation to ability will be critical, It would appear that this quote regarding the E190 was pre RFI. In regard to the KC390 I agree that it would be a better choice to replace the Herk's however as a maritime aircraft it must be remembered that some of the work has already been done with the Canadian SAR bid. In regard to the P8, the question will be are the Government prepared to by the extra weapons release gear and drones to make it effective?
The only invitation from the NZG has been the two RFIs for the FAMC and the FASC. Every man, woman and their dog, plus the neighbours dog can reply to those as long as they meet the criteria. It was not an unique invitation to Embraer. The SAR variant of the KC390 is only an unproven paper design and an SAR variant is a totally different animal to a MPA / MMA. In the NZDF context SAR is a secondary role, not a primary role.

I do not know what your beef with the B737 family is but it appears to be clouding your logic. You are worrying the runway issue like a dog worries a bone and it is only one criteria that will be evaluated. It is something that can be mitigated and if any B737 variants are acquired for the RNZAF such issues will be mitigated.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The only invitation from the NZG has been the two RFIs for the FAMC and the FASC. Every man, woman and their dog, plus the neighbours dog can reply to those as long as they meet the criteria. It was not an unique invitation to Embraer. The SAR variant of the KC390 is only an unproven paper design and an SAR variant is a totally different animal to a MPA / MMA. In the NZDF context SAR is a secondary role, not a primary role.

I do not know what your beef with the B737 family is but it appears to be clouding your logic. You are worrying the runway issue like a dog worries a bone and it is only one criteria that will be evaluated. It is something that can be mitigated and if any B737 variants are acquired for the RNZAF such issues will be mitigated.
I was only quoting what was in the Defence News which appeared to be pre RFI as it mentioned the upcoming RFI. Years ago when working at D Eng I was involved in the Project Kestrel and the start of Kahu in a minor way and I can assure you that a great deal of talking goes on with the manufacturers well before the formal stuff starts and you pretty much know exactly what is going to be submitted well before that and potential suppliers are very much in the loop as to what and when things are happening. I still think that the P8 is the leading contender, unless they decide that more than 4 units are required, but we need to recognise that there are operational issues in regared to NZ which will need to be mitigated not least of which is the extra gear needed to make this a class leading aircraft such as drones, high altitude guided weapons delivery systems and high altitude dropped sonobuoys which if the government does not want to fund will make this aircraft a lame duck. I am not myopically discarding everything else and are looking at all options. For instance if a great deal was had for the P1 would 5 or 6 P1s be better than 4 P8s or 6 or 7 E190s? In regard to the E190, Embraer would be looking to the future as a large number of Atlantic's will need to be replaced from the Italian and French air forces. We are a few years out from this decision and what is happening behind closed doors that we don't know of and a hell of a lot does for some years ahead of it becoming formal, will have a great bearing on the final result. As for the 737 they are great aircraft but like all aircraft have limitations and in the transport role offer us little if any improvement on what we have now and the strategic RFI gives us an overall picture of the Air forces thinking when looking at it in its entirety. I acknowledge that the procurement system has changed since my day but the need for extensive ground work would still be there, for example the preliminary work on Kahu started in 1978 and a project leader was appointed at that time, Kestrel was under way before I joined D Eng in 1977. In regard to the neighbor's dog "woof woof", only serious contenders would have received the full details, like the Mac .82 transit speed for the P3 replacement.
 
Last edited:

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
According to NavyRecognition website yesterday Norway has announced it will purchase 5 P-8As to replace its 6 P-3s and 3 DA-20 Falcon EW aircraft.

The numbers for the final P-8 production batch are increasing (USN + UK + India + Norway) and hopefully unit prices decreasing!
As for pricing Norway are paying circa NZD $1.62 billion for there five Poseidons and will replace their six P-3 Orion and three DA-20 Jet Falcon aircraft and are expected to be delivered in 2021 and 2022.
 

40 deg south

Well-Known Member
As for pricing Norway are paying circa NZD $1.62 billion for there five Poseidons and will replace their six P-3 Orion and three DA-20 Jet Falcon aircraft and are expected to be delivered in 2021 and 2022.
Thanks Mr C.
Has anyone attempted to look at the P-8 order-book and work out how long the current production run is likely to be?

Boeing were supposedly pushing production up to 1.5 aircraft/month this year. It would be normal to drop that back down once the end of the run is in sight, but how long does that give us to place an order?

There are a couple of interesting comments on another NZ aviation forum, with someone claiming that spares availability is becoming an issue for the P-3Cs. I'm not sure how believable it is? - there are still plenty of Orions in service world-wide.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks Mr C.
Has anyone attempted to look at the P-8 order-book and work out how long the current production run is likely to be?

Boeing were supposedly pushing production up to 1.5 aircraft/month this year. It would be normal to drop that back down once the end of the run is in sight, but how long does that give us to place an order?

There are a couple of interesting comments on another NZ aviation forum, with someone claiming that spares availability is becoming an issue for the P-3Cs. I'm not sure how believable it is? - there are still plenty of Orions in service world-wide.
There is an urgency matter with respect to timing more than a lack of parts. For example from time to time the RNZAF have had to borrow parts from P-3's undergoing DLM at Safe Air to keep flightline aircraft operational. They can eventually track down what they want but not in a time critical phase that will be able to keep the Sqd meeting mandatory tasking. The USN winding down P-3 will make things tighter for all operators who over time have each developed considerable differences, which again compounds things.

The fact that the basic airframe is a type certed 737-800 ERX airframe which Boeing hopes to continue with in a BCF variant when current P-8 production ends (eyeing up 757-200 freighter replacement market) probably does not mean the panic button alarm is the same as the C-17. That said though a decision made earlier the better is prudent because sub-contracted supplier lead in times will be required multiple months ahead.

Of course the election of Trump will see a possible boost to some defence production which may include additional numbers of the P-8 from the current force level. That Trump effect will also be politically in play when the NZDF looks to replace the P-3K2. Because buying non American will not go down too well for us in Donaldland.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
There is an urgency matter with respect to timing more than a lack of parts. For example from time to time the RNZAF have had to borrow parts from P-3's undergoing DLM at Safe Air to keep flightline aircraft operational. They can eventually track down what they want but not in a time critical phase that will be able to keep the Sqd meeting mandatory tasking. The USN winding down P-3 will make things tighter for all operators who over time have each developed considerable differences, which again compounds things.

The fact that the basic airframe is a type certed 737-800 ERX airframe which Boeing hopes to continue with in a BCF variant when current P-8 production ends (eyeing up 757-200 freighter replacement market) probably does not mean the panic button alarm is the same as the C-17. That said though a decision made earlier the better is prudent because sub-contracted supplier lead in times will be required multiple months ahead.

Of course the election of Trump will see a possible boost to some defence production which may include additional numbers of the P-8 from the current force level. That Trump effect will also be politically in play when the NZDF looks to replace the P-3K2. Because buying non American will not go down too well for us in Donaldland.
I would suspect that the NZ parts problem would be in the electronics, parts for which which would be unique to our aircraft. The engine /airframe parts should not be a problem. Having just signed a contract to upgrade the ASW function I don't think the government are in any hurry to order a replacement of the P3 K2 at this stage. The parts problem is likely to be a budgetary issue if they can still get them eventually, just not allowed to hold them in quantity.
On the Trump issue , we may find that he thinks we are to small to waste his time on and just ignore us.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Thanks Mr C.
Has anyone attempted to look at the P-8 order-book and work out how long the current production run is likely to be?

Boeing were supposedly pushing production up to 1.5 aircraft/month this year. It would be normal to drop that back down once the end of the run is in sight, but how long does that give us to place an order?
In January 2016 they had contracts for 78 USN P8s. Add to that the 12 Australian ones, 9 RAF and 5 Norwegian that gives 104 so far.
There are a couple of interesting comments on another NZ aviation forum, with someone claiming that spares availability is becoming an issue for the P-3Cs. I'm not sure how believable it is? - there are still plenty of Orions in service world-wide.
Yes I've read that and find it interesting. It may be so but I would think that LM would still be wanting to support the wider fleet for a while longer. There must still be a significant number of non USN P3s flying.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I would suspect that the NZ parts problem would be in the electronics, parts for which which would be unique to our aircraft. The engine /airframe parts should not be a problem. Having just signed a contract to upgrade the ASW function I don't think the government are in any hurry to order a replacement of the P3 K2 at this stage. The parts problem is likely to be a budgetary issue if they can still get them eventually, just not allowed to hold them in quantity.
On the Trump issue , we may find that he thinks we are to small to waste his time on and just ignore us.
I don't know. All the avionics and electronics have been recently upgraded so they have a glass flight deck and the inside has been completely redone. I get the impression it is basic airframe and possibly engine related items. The wings were redone in the 1990s.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I don't know. All the avionics and electronics have been recently upgraded so they have a glass flight deck and the inside has been completely redone. I get the impression it is basic airframe and possibly engine related items. The wings were redone in the 1990s.
You could be right, Though with the numbers still flying with what is a fairly standard airframe I suspected that the electronics would have been the problem area. I remember a similar problem arising fairly early after the Kahu project due to their unique nature and budget constraints.
 
Top