Royal Canadian Navy Discussions and updates

Sender

Active Member
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group



Just a bunch of promises which will be quickly ignored as per previous promises on a wide range of issues.
 

Sender

Active Member
Yes it is and the next three years will confirm my opinion. Perhaps junior will break whatever promises he made to the NDP which might force an election and result in a Conservative government. A majority might enact some serious defence commitments but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
Are you prepared to eat some crow if proven wrong?

@Sender

Two one liners in a row and a warning about posting links without comments. One liners are sometimes hard to avoid but are not encouraged. Both your posts could have focused on why you think John is wrong (make a case for your position which you did below).

Just a polite reminder to add value

Cheers

alexsa
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Are you prepared to eat some crow if proven wrong?
Short answer, yes depending on how you want to define wrong. Example, what is 2% of GDP if inflation continues on its upward trend and a recession causes a contraction of GDP? The result would be less real money. At some point the mountain of debt, both provincially and federal will impact our dollar. When stuff (exchange rate) hits the fan, do you really think 88 JSFs and 15 CSC ships will happen, let alone a decent number of new aerial tankers and P-8s. Certainly if a hot war broke out, money would be diverted to defence but long lead times for exotic military kit would leave us coming up short.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

Sender

Active Member
Short answer, yes depending on how you want to define wrong. Example, what is 2% of GDP if inflation continues on its upward trend and a recession causes a contraction of GDP? The result would be less real money. At some point the mountain of debt, both provincially and federal will impact our dollar. When stuff (exchange rate) hits the fan, do you really think 88 JSFs and 15 CSC ships will happen, let alone a decent number of new aerial tankers and P-8s. Certainly if a hot war broke out, money would be diverted to defence but long lead times for exotic military kit would leave us coming up short.
That's all true, but GDP last year, according to statscan (Gross domestic product by income account – Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) was $2.6Trillion. 2% of that is $52Billion. Even if we only move to 1.8, which is the number I've heard bandied about, that's a lot of extra money, and even exchange rates and inflation will still leave a lot of new spending on the table. Are you familiar with David Perry? If you look him up, he has written extensively on defence spending from a Canadian perspective, and he has concerns DND could ramp up fast enough to spend this extra money. I do know several people who work in DND, and they have been tasked with putting together "wish lists", in order of priority, to feed into the larger machine, which is apparently going to the Minister for evaluation. There is a definite sense that more money is coming, and that it will be significant. The question is, can the procurement system be adjusted fast enough to avoid lapsing this new-found wealth for the first few years...
 
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Sender

Active Member
Certainly a in-house Canadian designed frigate probably would factor in shipyard limitations. The problem is business potential for said design team, the RCN isn’t enough and the export market is very competitive.
The one thing that stood out in that article is that, for ship building anyway, off-the-shelf is a myth.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
That's all true, but GDP last year, according to statscan (Gross domestic product by income account – Seasonally adjusted at annual rates) was $2.6Trillion. 2% of that is $52Billion. Even if we only move to 1.8, which is the number I've heard bandied about, that's a lot of extra money, and even exchange rates and inflation will still leave a lot of new spending on the table. Are you familiar with David Perry? If you look him up, he has written extensively on defence spending from a Canadian perspective, and he has concerns DND could ramp up fast enough to spend this extra money. I do know several people who work in DND, and they have been tasked with putting together "wish lists", in order of priority, to feed into the larger machine, which is apparently going to the Minister for evaluation. There is a definite sense that more money is coming, and that it will be significant. The question is, can the procurement system be adjusted fast enough to avoid lapsing this new-found wealth for the first few years...
Other sources put Canada’s GDP at around 1.7 trillion USD or about 2.15 trillion CAN. Assuming 40-50 billion Canadian, it will likely be a challenge for the military procurement people to spend that amount. Significant delay will see inflation and perhaps a weakening dollar erode the buying power of the 49-50 billion. Also, the current geopolitical situation may trigger a recession. Certainly 10-15 P-8s and 5-6 MRTTs would be a good place to start along with the replacement fighters.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
An update on heavy icebreakers, the project is now estimated to cost $7 billion. Maybe we should just wait for polar icecap to melt.


More bad news, the coast guard version of the navy’s AOPS will cost twice as much. So much for a possible export sale to NZ.

 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This article suggests my concern about junior’s deal with the NDP will stall any significant defence commitments was valid.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
An update on heavy icebreakers, the project is now estimated to cost $7 billion. Maybe we should just wait for polar icecap to melt.


More bad news, the coast guard version of the navy’s AOPS will cost twice as much. So much for a possible export sale to NZ.

That's easy @John Fedup We'll just acquire a licence and build 'em in South Korea :D Be far cheaper.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
That's easy @John Fedup We'll just acquire a licence and build 'em in South Korea :D Be far cheaper.
Would be interesting to see what price NZ would pay for a SK build. As we have a domestic industry, politically impossible for Canada to do a foreign build for pointy end ships but AOPS and JSS should have at least been considered for construction overseas. It will interesting to see what the USCG pays for their proposed heavy icebreaker replacement.
 

Underway

Active Member
I get the logic for retaining OTSTs for defensive (eg counterfire/Urgent Attack) purposes (I don't agree with it per se, or at least not for a design where you are looking for service out of it for the next 30-40 years-I think the logic for their employment is reflective of a way that most enemy submarines don't operate anymore, and like what happened to blooming chaff launchers, I think we've got about 10-15 years before they've been completely eclipsed and outdated by technology). But I get it; SVTTs are cheap and well known.

But he talked instead of helicopters. So the only thing I can correlate that with is OTST for offensive weapons; might as well go with mortars and depth charges, Pk probably ends up about the same.
I go to sea and when I come back I'm greeted with this! ;)

Let me be clear. I never said in any post that SVTTs were to be used for offensive operations.

I stated (rewording here) that due to Carrier helicopters the UK doctrine is different, thus no SVTT's 0n the type 26. The UK ASW doctrine has three tools Canada does not have. Nuclear submarines, Carriers, and numbers of hulls (the last two lead to more helicopters available).

I'm know many of us are aware of how this works already, but there are lots of people who might not know some of this stuff so I'll explain more (at the risk of sounding like a lecture).

A UK Carrier TG can rely on its attached submarine to clear enemy submarines and uses its Helicopters for 24/7 multi-axis/zone surveillance of the area. Having one/two helicopters in the air 24/7 allows the helos to sufficiently screen the TG. The combination of multiple helos's on multiple ships along with the CV allows for this. The RN will use submarines and helicopters entirely for their ASW prosecution/defense. Their plan is to not let the subs get close enough to take a shot at the HVU, thus no SVTTs.

Canada will not have as many helicopters in their TG and likely no submarine support. The RCN TG doctrinally is 5 ships (four warships and one AOR) and 6 ASW helicopters. You can only do sensing along one axis 24/7 with those helicopters in rotation assuming availability doesn't drop in the aircraft. You don't have an SN clearing of enemy subs, and you generally don't have multiple helicopters in the air watching more axis at the same time. Which means there is a higher chance of a CSC having to dodge torpedoes (vs Type 26), as a sub sneaks into firing range, thus SVTT.

As such the RCN wanted SVTT's to help with defensive torp operations given the sensing constraints. There are not as many layers to defend the HVU as in the UK situation.

Speculation:
Other potential reasons for the difference is the the UK doesn't put much stock in how effective SVTT's might be and future proofing. Canada is investing in Anti-Torpedo Torpedo development and if/when that development reaches maturity it will likely replace the SVTT's. In the meantime go with what you know.

I don't know whether these are good decisions or not, but that's a thumbnail sketch of the reasoning and doctrinal differences I was alluding to.

Hope that clears things up!
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Reports are starting to come out that the budget tomorrow will increase defence spending by $12Bil. This would be less than 2% of GDP, but still a good bump.

An increase is likely but I would be pleasantly surprised if it is anywhere near $12 billion. What ever the number is, expect the combination of inflation together with our dysfunctional procurement to eat away at the increase.
 
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