Question is what can be done within the next 10 years…
F105, Japanese OPV, ‘lethal‘ Cape upgrades etc is something we could see within 3-4 years.
A fourth destroyer, up to 8 additional opvs and 21 Capes with a 25mm and 4 NSM is a nice little capability boost by 2030.
+Speartooth, Ghost Shark and Bluebottle production.
From where I sit, I do not see any significant increases as something being realistic within the next ~ten years, beyond what Australia has already set into motion.
There are a few naval yards actively building vessels to fill current customer orders. In order to output from these yards, either Australia would need to wait until the yards have build slots available, or else the customer's with vessels actively being built would need to agree to either let Australia purchase the vessel(s) under construction, or else 'jump' the build slot queue. Since we are seeing a degree of global rearmament ahead of anticipated int'l conflicts, getting other nations to agree to postpone/delay their respective naval build plans could be problematic, expensive, and more likely IMO, both. Even if Australia could get one or more nations actively having major warships built to agree to letting Australia purchase 'their' warships, the RAN would end up with warships designed, built and kitted out to the specifications for other navies. This would then almost certainly trigger additional time being required to get RAN personnel and support systems skilled and equipped to operate and maintain the systems which would not be standard RAN systems. Indeed we are already seeing questions about this getting raised about the fitout of the Japan-built
Mogami-class frigates for the RAN, since we do not know if they will be armed with Japanese AShM or VL rockets/missiles, or with US/RAN used systems like NSM, Standard, or ESSM. If the vessels are kitted out with weapons and munitions not currently in service with the RAN, then Australia would need to purchase warstocks of those munitions as well as setup logistics/distribution support to receive, safely store and then deliver the munitions to the appropriate vessels as needed. Depending on where vessels would be homeported, as well as the storage requirements for different ordnance, Australia might need to construct additional/new munitions storage facilities beyond what it current has or is planning.
Also the more variety that exists in munitions inventory for the same types of munitions, the more expensive and harder it will likely be to make sure the right vessels get the right ordnance when and where needed.
Another option to try and get additional vessels into RAN service within a decade would be to try and purchase active or 2nd hand vessels from other navies. However, this option would have some of the very same issues as trying to get ships from yards actively building for existing customers, namely the navy/gov't which currently has a vessel the RAN might want to purchase has to agree to the sale. There is also an additional potential issue with buying 2nd hand warships in that having been in service, Australia would be getting a vessel that might not be in the best shape and would also not have the same service life available and/or might require significant upgrades in the very near future to stay relevant/effective.
There might be some limited scope available to accelerate what Australia is already doing and get some of the
Hunter-class frigates commissioned a little earlier than current timelines suggest but that would likely only be one or two additional vessels at most. It is unfortunate, but if Australia really wanted to have more vessels in RAN service by ~2030, then more work needed to be done during the 2015-2020 time period if not earlier.
