Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[StevoJH]

I don't want to be accused of apostasy on this but should there be a significant delay between end of life of the conventional submarines prior to acquiring the submarines under AUKUS should we reconsider the B-1 bomber

They are 40 year old platforms, will they even have fatigue life left?

Better to focus on accelerating the procurement of SSN-AUKUS as much as possible, consider building the First of Class simultaneously with the first UK sub being built at Barrow.

 

[StevoJH]

On the SLOC issue, I don't agree with this because it ignores how difficult a full blockade would be to do to a country like Australia with its large number of ports and their geographical dispersal. Blockading vessels would need to operate continuously in many locations thousands of kms from home and it would be a very difficult and demanding exercise for any country including China. Yes they could disrupt, but complete blockade over a continuous period at all ports would be very difficult if not impossible. In any case protecting SLOC is not an argument for SSN's and is best undertaken by surface combatants. How does an SSN protect a convoy from air/missile attack?

How many Chinese ships visit those ports per week let alone per year?

Australia has two active Mine Hunters, and they have a maximum speed of 14 knots, how long is it going to take to clear each port let alone transit from there to the next one?

And that's assuming that the Mine Hunters don't get sunk or damaged by some sort of smart mine or XLUUV.

 

[Bob53]

Again, my impression, but it struck me that despite Australian desires for 'local content' and involvement, France/Naval Group was not all that interested in a collaboration, but rather wished to be a vendor building and selling a solution. Had it been for Australian versions of the Suffren-class SSN, I suspect that France/Naval Group would have required that these be built in France.

If one looks at the Brazilian Navy, they started a submarine upgrade and replacement programme at least as far back as early 2008 which was to see the then existing Brazilian Type 209 subs upgraded by LockMart, which would then be replaced by four Scorpene-class subs from France. The delivery of the lead sub was planned for 2017 but I believe it as not delivered until 2018. However, part of the whole programme was also for Brazil to develop a SSN with assistance from France. As of 2013, the expectation was that the lead Brazilian SSN would commission in 2023, but AFAIK that has not happened. If this happened with Brazil, then I tend to think Australia would have run into similar if not worse issues, especially if there were the added issues involving US defence tech and IP.

My understanding was 5 years in there was next to no movement on Australian manufacturers being contracted.

 

[Takao]

On the SLOC issue, I don't agree with this because it ignores how difficult a full blockade would be to do to a country like Australia with its large number of ports and their geographical dispersal. Blockading vessels would need to operate continuously in many locations thousands of kms from home and it would be a very difficult and demanding exercise for any country including China. Yes they could disrupt, but complete blockade over a continuous period at all ports would be very difficult if not impossible.

I would be careful making that assumption.

We have many ports, including some big ones like Port Headland that is one of the largest ports in the southern hemisphere.

When you look at what ports can take containerised cargo, which is how most imports come in, there's only really five that count. And Of those five, #1 (Melbourne) and #2 (Sydney) are each bigger than #3, #4 and #5 combined. Lose either one and a significant chunk of our import capacity is reduced for a while. Furthermore, piling into Adelaide or Fremantle (esp the latter) complicates the internal distribution when ashore.

A complete blockade is probably not possible; but a significant one? One that knocks out Sydney or Melbourne? That's feasible. Especially with modern undersea weapons.

 

[seaspear]

They are 40 year old platforms, will they even have fatigue life left?

Better to focus on accelerating the procurement of SSN-AUKUS as much as possible, consider building the First of Class simultaneously with the first UK sub being built at Barrow.

Present timelines for the first build AUKUS submarine in late 2030s, The b-21 bomber is priced at the cost of 3 f-35 aircraft and could fill the gap left by the ageing Collins class not take up further of the f-35s

https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines

Present submarines have concerns so taking for granted how many of them will be effective in ten years might be speculative

The Australian Navy has been left with just one fully operational submarine

The Australian Navy has been left with just one fully operational submarine as the rest of its aging Collins-class fleet undergoes urgent repairs or await upgrades. Defence sources have confirmed to the ABC two of the Collins submarines are currently stationed in Adelaide, where there are delays...

www.abc.net.au

 

[Todjaeger]

Present timelines for the first build AUKUS submarine in late 2030s, The b-21 bomber is priced at the cost of 3 f-35 aircraft and could fill the gap left by the ageing Collins class not take up further of the f-35s

https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines

Present submarines have concerns so taking for granted how many of them will be effective in ten years might be speculative

The Australian Navy has been left with just one fully operational submarine

The Australian Navy has been left with just one fully operational submarine as the rest of its aging Collins-class fleet undergoes urgent repairs or await upgrades. Defence sources have confirmed to the ABC two of the Collins submarines are currently stationed in Adelaide, where there are delays...

www.abc.net.au

One of the problems of course is that aircraft and submarines are very much dissimilar pieces of kit and therefore provide very different capability sets.
Ignoring any likely or even potential issues with Australia trying to purchase strategic bombers from the US, these aircraft cannot perform some (possibly even most) of the ISR functions that RAN subs do. Aircraft just do not have the ability quietly lurk in an area for days or possibly weeks at a time. Nor could the be used to land and/or retrieve people covertly. There are likely other capability differences that are just not coming to mind at present.

 

[swerve]

How many Chinese ships visit those ports per week let alone per year?

Australia has two active Mine Hunters, and they have a maximum speed of 14 knots, how long is it going to take to clear each port let alone transit from there to the next one?

And that's assuming that the Mine Hunters don't get sunk or damaged by some sort of smart mine or XLUUV.

Major ports could have local mine clearance, not needing ships. There are now unmanned mine hunting & clearance systems, controlled from shore (standard cargo container with all the bits in). I think that for critical infrastructure it'd be well worth investing in some.