John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Surely there is more risk in disappointing an important regional ally for a second time? How more risky is the Japanese bid over the German one? Quick delivery is likely better with the Japanese.
Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0
- Thread starter OPSSG
- Start date
Depends, if it is the upgraded Mogami -only 1 can be delivered by 2029. Extending Gen 1 Mogami production, could easily get 3 before 2030. Current in production Mogamis 10/11/12 also a possibility.
TKMS can pump out 3 frigates by 2029/30, just like they did with Egypt in 4 years.
iambuzzard
Active Member
The Evolved Mogami certainly has better capability than the TKMS design. 32 VLS and better ASW.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I guess there is the CYA approach, by 3 of each, albeit expensive, and decide on the rest based on performance. This would at least address the political risk. Could off load the unfavourable first batch to NZ to off set the extra expense somewhat.
SiVisPacemParaBellum
New Member
tkMS is also offering the A-210 which could be produced in Australia and exported by Australia to other countries (*NZ*)
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Japan and Germany shortlisted for Australia's next warship program
Australia will begin building its next warships in either Germany or Japan after the government narrowed the field of designs for a contract worth $11 billion over the next decade.
www.abc.net.au
InterestedParty
Active Member
Based on our history of European defence purchases I find it scary and amusing that TKMS can be seen as low risk
Upgraded Mogami vs A200…ABC is also saying sources have confirmed Germany and Japan but with the caveat that an official announcement will be made within weeks.
Japan and Germany shortlisted for Australia's next warship program
Australia will begin building its next warships in either Germany or Japan after the government narrowed the field of designs for a contract worth $11 billion over the next decade.
I don’t think the timing and other factors (outside scope of thread) would work for NZ but the IDEA of an export line may be a selling point for Australian governments (reality may be more vexed).
downunderblue
Member
The whole GPF selection criteria is very subjective. Above some are concerned about range, some about adaptability or commonality, some about crew component, VLS count or MCM capacity.
Eitherway, you can't underestimate geopolitics, and strengthening security ties with Japan especially after Trump must be very high on that list.
With all that, I still don't know how a TKMS could be competitive vs the Mogami. Yes construction risk is a consideration, but Japan have been pumping out those Mogami's very successfully. That red hearing of "they have never exported" belies a major commitment their end and a history of excellent civilian industrial production and offshore involvement.
One other factor is 'can Australia be seen to ignore the Japanese again after the Soryu SSK adventure with Tony Abbott then Turnbull"? I just can't see it happening again, as we need each other and need to be seen as mutually dependable.
Something must have been wrong with the HHI option, but again for me it doesn't come to mind.
TBH I just wish they could get on it, make a firm decision and stick with it. No time to wait.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
A difficult decision politically and practically, Japan is a regional player of great importance but is very vulnerable if stuff hits the fan. Germany has the same vulnerability, albeit to a lesser extent. Still think Japan should be the choice.
The Mogami risk is likely to be around systems, language and training issues, not shipbuilding.
Our previous experience with one of the TKMS predecessor organisations for the Anzac build, although not exactly all roses, was not that bad. But I would certainly not underplay the diplomatic risk in choosing to disappoint Japan again when they have made such a strong push to win this one.
Our previous experience with one of the TKMS predecessor organisations for the Anzac build, although not exactly all roses, was not that bad. But I would certainly not underplay the diplomatic risk in choosing to disappoint Japan again when they have made such a strong push to win this one.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I understand if some RAN officers would prefer familiar over revolutionary. But as downunderblue points out, Japan has been producing the Mogami-class very quickly. If Australia needs frigates sooner rather than later, Japan is where they'll come from.
Also how is the RAN doing for recruitment right now? From some basic research it looks like Mogami needs at least 30 less crew than the A-200 series ships.
I also don't understand the point about Japan having not exported a warship in living memory. At some point every country was in that position. The UK hadn't exported any new warships above corvette-size (selling used RN ships doesn't count) since the Type 42 destroyers sold to Argentina. In the last several years we've had significant licensed orders of the Type 26 and 31 frigates.
Also, John, if Japan is attacked then Australia isn't going to have several years to wait for Germany to send out ships. It's likely a conflict would be over in a few years.
Interesting view about not disappointing Japan again. Maybe if it's a close decision, the government will go with Mogami.
Also how is the RAN doing for recruitment right now? From some basic research it looks like Mogami needs at least 30 less crew than the A-200 series ships.
I also don't understand the point about Japan having not exported a warship in living memory. At some point every country was in that position. The UK hadn't exported any new warships above corvette-size (selling used RN ships doesn't count) since the Type 42 destroyers sold to Argentina. In the last several years we've had significant licensed orders of the Type 26 and 31 frigates.
Also, John, if Japan is attacked then Australia isn't going to have several years to wait for Germany to send out ships. It's likely a conflict would be over in a few years.
Interesting view about not disappointing Japan again. Maybe if it's a close decision, the government will go with Mogami.
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The inclusion of the Germans seems to make little sense but the presser seems to suggest that this was the recommendation of navy itself. My guess would be less risky since it is a proven design which is in fact just an update of what we already have.
When you think about it all the work of integrating the navy’s preferred weapons and sensors has already been done with the original ANZACs.
I can’t imagine the latest configuration of the Egyptian version of the A200 is in anyway suitable for the RAN.
When you think about it all the work of integrating the navy’s preferred weapons and sensors has already been done with the original ANZACs.
I can’t imagine the latest configuration of the Egyptian version of the A200 is in anyway suitable for the RAN.
At least the articles seem to refer to the upgraded Mogami.
Mitsubishi pumps out heaps of commercial ships for all around the world, so the argument that they don't export has limited merit. They build very quickly too, so nor is there a strong argument for the Germans being quicker to supply.
I'm thinking the meko represents a good stalking horse as it is the platform most able to come fitted with 9LV and ceafar, and the platform most similar to what we already have.
No suprise Navantia didn't make the cut.
I thought one of the Korean options would get a guernsey, particularly the Hyundai one as it was the more mature and better featured. No suprise the 4300 was not considered.
Mitsubishi pumps out heaps of commercial ships for all around the world, so the argument that they don't export has limited merit. They build very quickly too, so nor is there a strong argument for the Germans being quicker to supply.
I'm thinking the meko represents a good stalking horse as it is the platform most able to come fitted with 9LV and ceafar, and the platform most similar to what we already have.
No suprise Navantia didn't make the cut.
I thought one of the Korean options would get a guernsey, particularly the Hyundai one as it was the more mature and better featured. No suprise the 4300 was not considered.
On published specifications the Mogami looks to be way superior.
Germany is just likely to say we don’t agree with who or with the reason you’re fighting and drag the chain on support. don’t trust their politics.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Depends how the RAN wants to use them, I guess? Tier 2 ships are often regarded as suitable for boring but necessary work, outside of major combat zones. If the RAN wants to play it safe and keep these ships back from serious harm, they would be fine.
But that would be too cautious in my view. I think the evolved Mogami-class would be fine for participating in a RAN taskforce where combat with the PLAN or a similar enemy was expected. Stealthy design, good top speed and 32 VLS cells plus SeaRAM.
Definitely worth considering. Their government has just collapsed, and there's no guarantee they'll be reliable partners for Australia in the long run.
I think any RAN officers with strong attachment to the Anzacs need to accept they'll need to get used to something different. MEKO is suitable for countries without a big defence budget, but for Australia it's the past.
Theres alot of ex-FFG officers and AWD floating around who never thought much of Anzacs 
It would come down to equipment integration. Alot of Navy challenges is putting new equipment into a ship. Having a new ship with all new types of weapons, radar, combat systems would be a massive risk.
A-210 can be built with similar systems to current or emerging RAN plans. The koreans sell their ships with alot of their own because its a package deal. Philippines are a good example that they get what is given without much modification. How this goes with other vessels from USCG, Japan and now France along with legacy...will be interesting to see
Also, Japans exporting ships to Philippines this year so experience will be improved by time of Mogami.
Please, dont use Type 26 with brits as examples of FMS as easier or having a knowledge base, somehow its a nightmare
It would come down to equipment integration. Alot of Navy challenges is putting new equipment into a ship. Having a new ship with all new types of weapons, radar, combat systems would be a massive risk.
A-210 can be built with similar systems to current or emerging RAN plans. The koreans sell their ships with alot of their own because its a package deal. Philippines are a good example that they get what is given without much modification. How this goes with other vessels from USCG, Japan and now France along with legacy...will be interesting to see
Also, Japans exporting ships to Philippines this year so experience will be improved by time of Mogami.
Please, dont use Type 26 with brits as examples of FMS as easier or having a knowledge base, somehow its a nightmare