Its pretty bad. We are retiring a class of ships, the backbone of the RAN, and the replacements are 10 years off.
It should be clear as well, the Anzacs are in terminal decline. While scrapping HMAS Anzac, improves some of the availability of the others of the class, it doesn't turn back time. With the loss of those ships, we may see a retention issue, as people start planning their lives around what is happening. So this also needs addressing, you need to give people hope. Some ships are definitely in better condition than others, however with the upgrade, it may deem multiple other ships not worthy and scrap them. They have been worked very, very, very hard.
With a SFA with Japan, the RAN can start posting people to terrible unexciting places like Tokyo, to learn and observe the building of the new class of ships, in a new exciting arrangement with Japan, doing some sea time with the Japanese navy. Retention bonuses are nice, but ultimately, paying money to people to sit at a desk they don't want to sit at, doesn't fix the core reason why people leave if there is nothing to do.
The Japanese also see potential in this. They too have retention problems and recruitment issues, particularly with young people in uniform and out.
Weapons and platforms are only part of the equation. The LHD's for example, don't fire many missiles, but they have been very critical platforms for the ADF. With no sailors, with no soldiers, and no aviators, there is no defence force. That said, the ships being offered are actually pretty good. I do believe the RAN sees it as generally do able. The RAN still has Hobarts and hunters, which are pretty good.
Japan has laid everything out for this bid. More so than they did with submarines. The lack of non-success has been traumatic for the Japanese. They are feeling super alone and unloved. If this bid fails, they may cease continuing engaging with the international market.
If they get Australia, that will swing the door wide open to them. No doubt the UK/US/CA/NZ will be interest what is happening and may start a wave of equipment sales. I don't think the Japanese really care about having multiple partners. But they really want one good non-US partner. In case Superman re-elects Trump, or worse than Trump candidate, they say things like they are no longer under the nuclear umbrella, and threatens a withdrawal from Asia. A partner like the UK or AU, would be ideal, because these guys can slap the Americans, get their attention, appeal to the population of the US, and influence decision making. Japan, can't.
Even if they don't, Australia has a boat load of resources, huge trade influence with China, China finds Australia impossible to pressure and manipulate and Australia has many friends on the international stage. Japan can supply muscle, ships, tech, etc, Australia provides diplomacy, credibility, leadership.
I can't imagine long and frequent discussions with the Indonesians have made the Japanese more relaxed.
I think we will be aiming to get 2 of the first 4. So perhaps an even bigger ask.
But you have to look at it from Japan's perspective. Russia approaching failed state status and warring with Europe. China just looks immense with all sorts of internal and external issues. The Americans looking less certain about their commitment to Asia in conflict, particularly watching what Ukraine has struggled to get US support with Republicans. Japan essentially doesn't have any non-US allies. 10 years of failed attempts at international defence relations. If the US withdrew from Japan, that would be psychologically and strategically apocalyptic for Japan.
Meanwhile Australia is selling armored vehicles to Germany at NATO meetings, and propping up NATO/US AWACs capability for Ukraine, at personal invitation of the Americans and getting nuclear submarines, from the Americans, maybe the Americans and the British, in some sort of super mega tight big boy club which enjoys unbreakable bipartisan support in all 3 countries, and a former prime minister and China expert in Washington, and they just got mr Wikileaks out. From the Japanese perspective, the deal with Australia must absolutely happen, and they are the most motivated to do so.
While Spain, Germany and Korea have issues and motivation, they aren't in the same situation as Japan.
