Hi
@Stampede, I listened to that too - for a bloke who I originally thought was just entranced by big grey ships and black submarines that could fire weapons and make other things go "bang", I now think Kim Beasley actually had much better vision of what the RAN could and should be than any Defence Minister since.
I also think that if Trump is re-elected, the US Defence establishment will still try its hardest to make AUKUS work. It is clearly in the interests of all three nations to make AUKUS work, irrespective of whether the sovereign citizens of the U.S. of A (a.k.a. Dumbfuckistan) elect Trump for a second term or not. If Trump is re-elected then my prediction is that certain entrenched interests will recruit the U.S. equivalent of Sir Humphrey Appleby to block Trump's machinations in the defence and foreign policy areas, or at least slow them down to the point where Trump's machinations effectively cease to have any meaningful effect - Yes, Prime Minister anyone?
Personally, I don't think Trump, if re-elected, would have an actual defence or foreign policy plan - he would just make shit up on the fly as he sees fit. Another reason why a U.S. equivalent of Sir Humphrey Appleby is necessary!
Of course, if elected Trump could just decide to completely veto AUKUS, but such a decision would be blocked if the Democrats (or even moderate Republicans) control the HoR and/or the Senate during his second term, or immediately reversed as soon as the Democrats (and/or moderate Republicans) are in a position to do so. Personally I think that there would be enough Democrats and moderate Republicans in both houses who are willing to take a long-term view to keep AUKUS alive, even if only just.
And Trump could not be re-elected for a further term, as the U.S. Constitution says that one person may not be elected to the office of President more than twice - that limitation was introduced after Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected for four successive terms from 1933 until he died in office in April 1945 just before the end of WW2. I looked this point up specifically to check whether Trump could truly block AUKUS - the answer is no, he could only try to delay it by up to four years.
If China or Russia decided to start WW3 during a potential second Trump presidency, then even Trump could see enough votes for his Republican successor to change his defence and foreign policy position and adopt a Reagan-like, "just tell me who the bad guys are" approach, and listen to well-researched and well-informed advice (from the aforesaid U.S. Sir Humphrey Appleby of course), which would be a nice change!