Apart from the desire for short term gain with additional AWD’s, it’s quite possible that Spain is also playing the long game. Establishing a strong working relationship with Henderson (Civmec) would probably assist in getting the Navantia Australia Joint Support Ship design being selected.
Entirely possible. Although that could change... Change upwards?
There are multiple support, logistics and amphibious projects, as well as 3 x hobarts, 2 x Canberras, 2 x supply class to be supported and upgraded. If 3 new hobarts were acquired, and based in WA, they would be all over that too. Henderson could then continue to push Navantia designs for projects. BAE has quite a hold on ASC and Osborne. No one is going to change that. Anything that basically gets built at ASC has to go through BAE, pretty much. To be fair, Osborne will be flooded with work on Hunters, Collins LOTE, Hobart upgrade, then the nuclear subs.
There is no doubt a commercial aspect. But its linked with other things. WA wants more defence dollars spent in wa particularly if the subs mean mix east/west basing. Civmec needs a design partner and support. Navantia wants a way back into production in Oz. There is a strategic thing too. Basing ships over at WA, well they will need DDG's for that in the near future. Stephen Smith, is a sand groper, I don't think that is a huge factor but there it is.
How does Australia practice ASW with all the subs on one side and all the ASW capability on the west? 3 destroyers isn't enough, particularly if they are all being cutup for refit. With collins refit, yes, a hole develops in capability, while a Hobart isn't a sub, it can do land strike, it can help hunt subs, it is a point of presence. 2030 is a long wait to be getting new hunters, but more than that, 1 isn't a game changer, there would need to be 3. No way is 3 happening by 2030, even if it did this the continuous ship building goes out the window. New hobarts would probably take some of the pressure off trying to make the hunters do everything have bigger VLS counts and speculating about it in the broadsheets.
The JSS/logistics part seems to be coming to a head because the Army Land400 projects are now under pressure to be cut because we can't "move them all around". Also the MH60R buy means perhaps some of the amphibious priority can be moved off the LHD's, and these
may pick up more of a ASW role.
There are a lot of people guessing at what may or may not happen with the defence review. Its not really clear what the ADF/RAN/AUSGOV want or need. Navantia are betting they will want something that they have to offer.
November isn't far away. We will likely know then what has legs and what does not. But things are globally falling apart much faster than most expected. As we go forward, opportunities and options will close up quite quickly as time runs out. No amount of money, pressure or media will change that. We are seeing that with subs now.
When the music stops, and the lights go down, Australia better have picked a good plan and have those elements in play. There is no time to wish for new toys.