Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0
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Naive question. Since you are opening to new Hobarts for a stop gap.
You need a stop gap and Indonesia doesn't have cash for the FREMM.
Wouldn't it be good to sign a 3 country agreement, that Australia buys 6 FREMM EVO or Constellation depending on what you prefer, and when the T26 enters service you sell them to Indonesia? Meanwhile you can add more T26 to the end of the line?
We are building another 8 FREMM (2 to replace Egypt ones, and 4-6 more of the EVO/2.0 kind) so together with the 20 US(I hope) ones there could be very big economies of scale.
it isnt a serious idea, just something that crossed my mind this morning.
You need a stop gap and Indonesia doesn't have cash for the FREMM.
Wouldn't it be good to sign a 3 country agreement, that Australia buys 6 FREMM EVO or Constellation depending on what you prefer, and when the T26 enters service you sell them to Indonesia? Meanwhile you can add more T26 to the end of the line?
We are building another 8 FREMM (2 to replace Egypt ones, and 4-6 more of the EVO/2.0 kind) so together with the 20 US(I hope) ones there could be very big economies of scale.
it isnt a serious idea, just something that crossed my mind this morning.
Would be completely different ship for us, would mean potentially in future we could be building / operating four separate types of major surface combatant simultaneously, not counting minor war vessels, amphibs, support ships and subs… It will be bad enough with 3 as we already plan…
We took a good look at FREMM and passed on it, in favour of T26. I don’t see that changing. The only ‘addition’ I can forsee in the near future, before Hunter class frigates start arriving, ‘may’ be additional air warfare destroyers sourced from Spain and I’m dubious at best, about the chances of that...
I honestly don't see extra AWD's being in the water before the first Hunter unless Navnatia have all the necessary equipment in stock (including the Radar and Combat systems). Even then I suspect they will be a different fit to the current DDG and the Hunter.
Given the progress with dialing in the shipyard (prototyping) and the fact this will be a 'digital' shipyard and the fact the logistics train is being established as we speak ..... once the design is set the production could be accelerated if desired.
Another potentially naive question - if they’ve got capacity why aren’t we asking Navantia to build Hunter class hull blocks for us to speed up getting the first one (or two, or three) in the water?
IP would be a big issue, BAE and Navantia are competitors. Besides, current news is what BAE are doing in Adelaide is in advance of what they are doing in Scotland and there is some reverse technology transfer going on, both are well in advance of Navantia whose shipyards are very old school. I would even suggest Spain's offers involve a hope on their part that it will fund and assist a modernisation of their facilities.
Probably a combination of the new facilities, and the pooling of ideas from ASC, BAE, BIW and Navantia, as well as the nature of the contract encouraging inovation, rather than any innate Australian superiority but the result is Osborne is a world standard facility with a world standard workforce.
As an aside, the workforce that built the Hobart's, as well as the one that maintains the Collins class, was only ever between 60 and 75% of what was planned. It consists of teams that must finish one job before going to the next, instead of multiple teams permitting concurrent work.
I call BS on skills shortages, the time frames involved gives plenty of time to hire and train people, the problem is no one wants to pay competitive wages or increase head counts to provide the training.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Another consideration, once all three T26 programs are well underway, would there be any common blocks that could be built by this group to speed things along if an increased build number was deemed necessary?
IP would be a big issue.
Even if it was not, scheduling of blocks (noting they need to be shipped and checked) is another big issue and added cost. There is also a risk if the outsourced blocks are not to the correct tolerances as that would be a massive delay. There was a reason that the 'steel in ship out' approach was taken.
As far as build times are concerned the other consideration is whether we stick with the continual build model or just build the things as fast as possible.
Something else to consider is how many we will build.
Referring back to Dutton”s comments about having the SSNs built in the US he also said his plan was to build additional Hunters to compensate for the loss of work for the local industry.
Whether or not the new government goes down that path remains to be seen.
Something else to consider is how many we will build.
Referring back to Dutton”s comments about having the SSNs built in the US he also said his plan was to build additional Hunters to compensate for the loss of work for the local industry.
Whether or not the new government goes down that path remains to be seen.
I think people are missing the fact that the capacity to build blocks quickly at Osborne isn’t the constricting factor for Hunter’s timeline.
Osborne South was designed and constructed from scratch to be one of the most efficient and advanced shipbuilding yards in the world.
Once there’s design maturity, I have no doubt that Osborne will be able to produce blocks as fast or faster than any other shipyard in the world.
On the topic of drumbeat, that really comes down to fleet size. A larger fleet size allows for a faster drumbeat, with no or minimal gaps in production between programs.
Osborne South was designed and constructed from scratch to be one of the most efficient and advanced shipbuilding yards in the world.
Once there’s design maturity, I have no doubt that Osborne will be able to produce blocks as fast or faster than any other shipyard in the world.
On the topic of drumbeat, that really comes down to fleet size. A larger fleet size allows for a faster drumbeat, with no or minimal gaps in production between programs.
Spain is building several Aegis frigates and also upgrading their bigger frigates. Its possible they they may wish to space out or delay their frigates, and push resources to Australia. Its really an unbelievable claim until some detail emerge how that would happen.
However, I think it is worth looking at what the Spanish are talking about, there are a few elements in play, not just a yard shaping metal. Honestly I think that is probably the least interesting part of what a relationship between Spain and Australia could be.
Spain has a similar issue to Australia. How do you build a sustainable ship building capacity with a small fleet. They seem pretty adamant they can build them before 2030. Its not just radar, combat systems, lead times on *LOTS* of things has blown out. Navantia would need a real magic box of things, which maybe, is easier to do in Europe than in Australia. Its unclear exactly how. Its not just about metal shaping and welding which is what most people think about with ship building its, fitout, its systems, its all the stuff other than the big metal box. It is the people who are able to do that.
Spain seems to understand into the regional issue and tension between Osborne and Henderson having a similar internal issue itself. After some poking around they intend to work with Henderson for most of the Australian work, and Henderson is receptive to that idea. Henderson doesn't have the BAE/IP/ASC issue that Osborne has. TBH Spain doesn't care and has experience with Spain has big yards and the government is flexible to try and score work. On top of that the Spanish Navy has shown great interest in Australia and supporting Australia, through the Hobarts, the Canberra's and the Supply classes.
I don't see anyone else bending over backwards to build ships for Australia faster, and of a type that will have high(ish?) levels of commonality from a place that already has presence and connection with Australia.
As much as we think every type and every platform is selected in a vacuum. Its not. Hobarts, Canberras and Supply is a big chunk of our fleet. Significant effort and support was required to get there. It would be hard for another party to just roll on up and cut an even better deal. The only ones that could have, the British, are already in the Hunter builds or the Americans who aren't interested at all.
Spain has a huge unemployment issue, while everyone else seems to have labor shortages, they have more of the opposite issue. They could be very receptive to things like defence transfers etc. They have 5 x Hobart type ships, they have 1 x Canberra and they have 1 x Supply. (5 x 220) + (1 x 360) + (1 x122). Effectively there are ~1,600 at sea positions that very similar between the two navies. If we are talking expansion, managing the expansion with help from several navies makes it far, far more possible and doable. Short term and long term with reasonable pools to help fill shortages. With our upcoming Destroyer capability shortage, we could wet lease a destroyer like we did with Cantabria. An interesting idea.
The UK has left the EU, so for our FTA we don't exactly have a lobby within the EU. Spain has made sounds like they may want to help Australia out in that regard. Agriculturally, Australia and Spain are complimentary more than they are competitors. Not only that, any over lap Australian products are likely to be at a significant premium to the local Spanish crop. We are also in different hemispheres, and opposite seasons. Spain's exports aren't likely to be deal breakers here and again, its more complimentary.
Australia could solve some of the EU's issues, solve a lot of Spain's issues. Spain is a similar sized nation to Australia and needs to upgrade a lot of its military. Beyond navy, there are opportunity for pilots, and opportunities to share some marine and army know how.
It has active programs in IFV and SPG, it could be looking at light vehicles. Just saying it could be worth exploring some options and having some conversations. It has a bit of an issue with its flying fast jet platforms, classic hornets and Harriers won't keep flying for ever.
By 2028 its submarine program will be completed (its already winding down), and it will basically have to lay off its entire sub workforce. If only, someone, somewhere, was looking to expand their sub program. Don't take the fossils, just the people you need.
Australia and Spain could lock into some arrangement about upgrades to the Hobarts and the AdB and the Canberras & JC1. Sharing development costs of the solution.
There are options that perhaps haven't yet been fully explored. Perhaps normally they wouldn't, but recent events make both countries keen to talk to each other. Even if it doesn't result in a 3 destroyers before 2030. If the SHTF, it may be nice to have had some preliminary conversations on what options might be available.
Good view point. I always wondered what we haven’t targeted skilled migration in the past 40 years from countries and companies in those countries that have the skills we need for defence projects. Must be a few Spanish engineers who might like the idea of a life in Perth or Adelaide.
The Australian defence industry is basically like the United Nations, there are and always have been large numbers of skilled people migrating to Australia specifically to work on defence projects.
My LinkedIn is full of Swedes, Brits, Yanks, Germans, Dutch, Spaniards and others I met working on Australian defence projects. They come here, they often become citizens, and then our genius politicians fail to place more orders and they get made redundant and have to go elsewhere.
I thought I'd share this pic from defence images of Fleet base West taken a week ago.
Shows five ANZAC Class vessels, four of which have had the AMCAP upgrade.
As I understand, six of the class have been upgraded with the remaining two to both be ready for service later next year.
So does that look like we will have a small window of all 11 frigates and destroyers in service late next year or 2024?
Dismissing Navantias proposal and working with the scheduled Hobart Class upgrade.
Would we have at a time one or two Hobarts out of the water most of the time and what does that look like with total fleet numbers.
I'm hoping more available ships in the water than during the ANZAC Class AMCAP.
Any way a lot may happen in the next year or two.
Good news is that shortly the very capable Arafura Class will start to enter service to provide a mission flexibility the older patrol boat era vessels never could offer.
Interesting times
Cheers S
Shows five ANZAC Class vessels, four of which have had the AMCAP upgrade.
As I understand, six of the class have been upgraded with the remaining two to both be ready for service later next year.
So does that look like we will have a small window of all 11 frigates and destroyers in service late next year or 2024?
Dismissing Navantias proposal and working with the scheduled Hobart Class upgrade.
Would we have at a time one or two Hobarts out of the water most of the time and what does that look like with total fleet numbers.
I'm hoping more available ships in the water than during the ANZAC Class AMCAP.
Any way a lot may happen in the next year or two.
Good news is that shortly the very capable Arafura Class will start to enter service to provide a mission flexibility the older patrol boat era vessels never could offer.
Interesting times
Cheers S
Anzac is scheduled to be pulled out of the water at the end of next year to be the lead ship going into TRANSCAP. Cheers.
Ok thanks
The towed array and supporting systems are needed.
Hopefully not a time intensive upgrade.
Cheers S
The Spanish seem to have become very friendly with those in WA at Henderson. The Civmec yard was sized to be able to hall DDG size ships and apparently had some input on what sort of capabilities would be required to build there. Civmec bought Forags so they argue that they have Hobart building experience, even if these days Forags is just a name.
Spain would be more than happy to send skilled people over to work in Australia and do work in Australia as required. Not sure if this meets the Australian build requirement and sovereignty. But there are certainly options and spectrum of build options. They seem confident they can make anything work, and they are aware BAE may not be interested at all. In fact I would say perhaps Navantia and BAE are quite happy not to work with each other if that was the case. Navantia can see the huge investment BAE has made in Osborne they know they can't/won't dislodge that. That isn't an objective either. They have other problems and other issues to run after. The argument is these 3 destroyers would be based on the west coast as well and need to be supported there. These new ships can work with Collins much closer over on the west, rather than dragging Collins to the east, or dragging Hobarts from the east to go west for operations.
It really isn't a Hunter/Hobart competition. We need to support both. We need 9 hunters as fast as we can.
Australian ship yards are very modern. Talk to any Euronaval house, they are impressed with what we can do on the ground. Arguably Henderson can probably fabricate metal much faster than Ferrol can at this stage, IMO. Fabricate metal. We are a long way from old WW2 yards and tired old workforces of thousands of laborers. Its lasers, and plasma and automation and robots.
The Spanish like places like Adelaide and Perth (and Sydney). They are very compatible to lifestyle and climate back over in Spain.
It would appear that the Spanish were aware that during the production of the Hobarts we were building ships that need immediate upgrades and that we would likely have a Destroyer shortage. They also have older un-upgraded destroyers, and suffer some issues operating them with the US destroyers based in Spain. The Spanish are worried about the Americans moving resources. Australia-Spain-US alliance makes some sense, we have high levels of commonality and no conflicting concerns. Spain knows Australia has influence with the US beyond what it has.
Its been a destructive cycle. Hurtful for individuals and their families.
Europe has several problems:
- Energy crisis.
- A war in the east.
- Cost of living crisis.
- Unemployment crisis in Spain.
- Germany looks like going into recession, as will the UK and the rest of the EU was weak at the best of times.
- Governments cutting back on defence projects and spending despite increasing threats.
- Long term projects (like the Spanish subs) which were not continuous finishing up, providing nothing at all for the future.
- Spain has its own internal problems. Spain linking with Australia will be popular within Spain. Australia is a rich, democratic, free and friendly nation, outside of the problems of Europe. Keeping spain together
But its all very mysterious. 3 new build destroyers in ~7 years would be hugely ambitious. We should be hesitant to believe such claims without any supporting details of how.
Australia should be pretty paranoid. The largest gas pipeline was just eliminated, either by the Russians, or by the Americans. Either option is terrifying from a planning perspective. Australia is the largest LNG exporter in the world. There is open decoupling. There is a high intensity war in Eastern Europe, that Russia appears to be loosing, and they have mobilized their population. Christ the Russians are running out of shells and munitions they have started to deplete NK, China and Iran's stocks. The US too has consumed a significant portion of some types of munitions like Javlin, Nlaw, stinger. The US is running out of munitions (ok only some, but still). Let this sink in a bit.
There is a global energy crisis. There is a global environmental disruption. There are compounded issues affecting global food supply. There is huge disruptions in the technical supply chain. We have a European nation pleading with Australia at Lowry to give more Bushmasters and M113's and munitions. Or any spare tanks, they would take our Leopard's if we had them to give.
It may not be possible to efficiently build complex things like submarines or warships in the period ~2030.
Even ignoring any new build Hobarts. Spain is a strong bidder on some of the amphibious and support ships, and the same sort of local industry issues also pop up with these projects, as does training sailors and other support systems. We need to look alive and act now. Time is critical.
When I worked in Sydney my firm put me up in a serviced flat on a corner in Liverpool St (in a tower shared with a hotel: now seems to be shared with the Radisson). There was a Spanish social club & a couple of Spanish restaurants just up the road, & IIRC one or two other Spanish-owned businesses. Good grub. All gone now, I think: the last remains of the little community seem to have dispersed.