Royal Australian Air Force [RAAF] News, Discussions and Updates

[Takao]

Pretty sure Albanese promised to spend $10 billion on automated drones over the next decade.i am not so much concerned that the MQ-28 is not going to be funded. More concerned that it and other automated systems might be over hyped.

I think you underestimate the number of drone projects that exist within the ADF. Between undersea, surface, land and atmosphere there are more than $10 b worth of ideas...

But my point wasn't that MQ-28A would be unfunded. It was more an indication that drone =/= cheap. A fleet of useful size will cost billions, which needed to be added to all the other priorities. What falls away is a question that the ADF needs to be asking now, and quite frankly, the RAAF needs to work some of this stuff out sooner rather than later.

 

[Wombat000]

Hypothetical Q from outa L field:

I understand Canada has ordered & paid for 16x F-35As.
I also hear of much disgruntlement, and speculation that Canada is interested in Gripen, perhaps to equip the larger component of their fighter capability, which if it did happen would make their F-35s a niche fleet to maintain.

Q: if they did actually do that, do we think we might be in a position to get the RCAF F-35s sold/transferred order/taken up by the RAAF?
Do we reckon there might be an appetite in RAAF for pre-made new F-35s?

16 might equip a WA based squadron?

Interested in the thoughts from the brains trust.

 

[Mark_Evans]

Hypothetical Q from outa L field:

I understand Canada has ordered & paid for 16x F-35As.
I also hear of much disgruntlement, and speculation that Canada is interested in Gripen, perhaps to equip the larger component of their fighter capability, which if it did happen would make their F-35s a niche fleet to maintain.

Q: if they did actually do that, do we think we might be in a position to get the RCAF F-35s sold/transferred order/taken up by the RAAF?
Do we reckon there might be an appetite in RAAF for pre-made new F-35s?

16 might equip a WA based squadron?

Interested in the thoughts from the brains trust.

Not part of the brains trust but Canada had already committed to the first tranche of 16 f35's. The Gripen did not fare well in the assessment process so you have to ask how much of this is actually lobbying for a better deal job-wise with the f35. Or stalling until Trump has left the white house and using Gripen to get a better deal in the tariff war.
Australia should be having a real hard look at the UK/Japanese/Italian GCAP. The F35/F18 combo should do us until GCAP has firmed up.

 

[John Fedup]

Hypothetical Q from outa L field:

I understand Canada has ordered & paid for 16x F-35As.
I also hear of much disgruntlement, and speculation that Canada is interested in Gripen, perhaps to equip the larger component of their fighter capability, which if it did happen would make their F-35s a niche fleet to maintain.

Q: if they did actually do that, do we think we might be in a position to get the RCAF F-35s sold/transferred order/taken up by the RAAF?
Do we reckon there might be an appetite in RAAF for pre-made new F-35s?

16 might equip a WA based squadron?

Interested in the thoughts from the brains trust.

I am guessing a reduced fleet size for the F-35 (30-45) that may be increased post Trump. This might appease the increasing anti-US sentiment here. A second small Gripen fleet might happen but I prefer a GCAP option for 2045-50.

 

[Wombat000]

I am guessing a reduced fleet size for the F-35 (30-45) that may be increased post Trump. This might appease the increasing anti-US sentiment here. A second small Gripen fleet might happen but I prefer a GCAP option for 2045-50.

Thanks for your insight John.
I was thinking that it may be considered somewhat of a win-win?

The US still builds the planes, manufacturers are still happy.
The US still has the logistics chain for upkeep of those aircraft.

Canada moves the F-35s on, sure at a shorter price point (presuming an on-selling) but in turn saves on training, logistics for a smaller fleet of aircraft which is cheaper in the long run.

Australia wins because these would be available much sooner than any new order scheduling, and at a somewhat cheaper rate, and has a much bigger pool to draw from with potentially an airbase in the west.

Food for thought.

 

[Takao]

Hypothetical Q from outa L field:

I understand Canada has ordered & paid for 16x F-35As.
I also hear of much disgruntlement, and speculation that Canada is interested in Gripen, perhaps to equip the larger component of their fighter capability, which if it did happen would make their F-35s a niche fleet to maintain.

Q: if they did actually do that, do we think we might be in a position to get the RCAF F-35s sold/transferred order/taken up by the RAAF?
Do we reckon there might be an appetite in RAAF for pre-made new F-35s?

16 might equip a WA based squadron?

Interested in the thoughts from the brains trust.

Why would we?

There are a number of reasons as to why it wouldn't be suitable:

1. There are higher priorities to spend money on

2. The F-35 capability is more expensive than first calculated, adding more airframes drives that cost up

3. The overall fighter capability is more expensive than first considered, and is already arguing for a Hawk replacement (more money, see (1))

4. The F-35 offers little to the current force, especially in terms of homeland defence. Adding more does not move the needle at all.

5. A WA-based Sqn would add significant cost and complexity to the supply chain. It's hard enough sustaining Tindal from Williamtown; Perth would be much harder. You'll also have to buy a shedload of additional equipment for that - all the GSE and the like that is at Williamtown would need to be duplicated. See (1) again.

I'm increasingly disillusioned by the F-35 capability. Lockheed Martin promised the world, I'd like them to start delivering some of their promises. I realise that the F-35 has seen some success over Iran - I'll note that our stated enemy exceeds Iranian capabilities by orders of magnitude and are 1000s of km further away.

 

[John Fedup]

Canada will need the 16 F-35s because no suitable number of Gripens could be produced to meet Canada’s fighter needs. Even if Canada goes for two fleets, more F-35s will still be needed to get a mixed fleet of 50-60 jets.

 

[StingrayOZ]

1. There are higher priorities to spend money on
2. The F-35 capability is more expensive than first calculated, adding more airframes drives that cost up
3. The overall fighter capability is more expensive than first considered, and is already arguing for a Hawk replacement (more money, see (1))
4. The F-35 offers little to the current force, especially in terms of homeland defence. Adding more does not move the needle at all.
5. A WA-based Sqn would add significant cost and complexity to the supply chain. It's hard enough sustaining Tindal from Williamtown; Perth would be much harder. You'll also have to buy a shedload of additional equipment for that - all the GSE and the like that is at Williamtown would need to be duplicated. See (1) again.

Not only are F-35 more expensive, capabilities and upgrades have taken longer and key features still aren't in, and blk IV is now more a spectrum rather than a single upgrade that provides all promises. We are still waiting on various anti-shipping, ECM/EW/ISR, networking etc. TBH some of those were pretty far off when promised. But given the dramas with the Blk IV upgrade and the fact that Australia was such a early adopter with a lot of airframes needing upgrades, I suspect the RAAF is pretty much fully booked.

There are also super hornet upgrades in the pipe to blk III. Which again, is another commitment for that platform, so I for see Australia flying that platform for much longer.

Drones, P8, E7 upgrades.. they seems to have a lot going on. 20 new hercs..

I'm increasingly disillusioned by the F-35 capability. Lockheed Martin promised the world, I'd like them to start delivering some of their promises. I realise that the F-35 has seen some success over Iran - I'll note that our stated enemy exceeds Iranian capabilities by orders of magnitude and are 1000s of km further away.

I think it will always be a problem child, never truely living up to its potential. That said, its still a very capable aircraft. Its still very impressive, and there is still progress being made, but those lockmart promise and timeframes seem pretty hollow now. So much so I'm not sure we will ever see some capabilities effectively realised.

If any fighters were to be procured, the F-18SH would but far, far more likely. The US is pretty desperate for orders if they want to keep it open, its a platform that could be gifted to other countries. Malaysia tried to buy those Arab hornets. Super hornet may be a better fit for them. We could co-locate at Butterworth. We could hand off some Blk II and get Blk III. Upgrading aircraft isn't cheap, and uses up considerable time, money, and resources. But who wants to put in a billion dollar order for 4th gen fighters right now? As you said, it would be billions, billions that desperately needs to be spent elsewhere.