Royal Australian Air Force [RAAF] News, Discussions and Updates

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Loyal Wingman first flight - YouTube

Looks like Boeing and BAE have achieved first flight for the Loyal Wingman
Amazing how quick they have designed built and now flying Loyal Wingman
What are the odds we see this go into full production is the next few years?

Do you think it will have a long drawn out test and evaluation time that most manned aircraft seem to have(10 plus years)?
The program seems to be flying (pun intended)
New video, but old news. First flight was in early March, so they're two months further advanced than this suggests

oldsig
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member

Australian Defence Supplement article proposing a B21 purchase for Australian
An alternative option is a larger, long ranged development of the Loyal Wingman.
A billion dollars each makes it pretty unlikely to my mind. To put it into context that's what it costs to build and equip a large tertiary referral hospital. If the Loyal Wingman MkI is successful I think it would be more likely to see a larger MkII able to carry significant ordinance over longer ranges. We would be able to afford more craft and have the other benefits that derive from a sovereign capability.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

Australian Defence Supplement article proposing a B21 purchase for Australia.
An alternative option is a larger, long ranged development of the Loyal Wingman.
This has been discussed here before. Has the Treasurer finally found a couple of magical money trees near the black stump? A mininum flyaway cost of US$500 million each. By the time you add the spares, manuals, training, infrastructure, maintenance, maintenance contracts, simulators and all the other sundries etc., you are looking at anywhere from between US$250 - 500 million per aircraft. And that's without the weapons and other aspects of the WOLC.

Another equally valid point is if the US is willing to export such a national strategic asset. They have never offered the B-52, B-1, or B-2 for export, nor any of their SSN's or SSBN's. So those who suggest that the B-21 be acquired by Australia need to look at all of the issues, not just that it's a flash toy and nice to have.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Another equally valid point is if the US is willing to export such a national strategic asset. They have never offered the B-52, B-1, or B-2 for export, nor any of their SSN's or SSBN's. So those who suggest that the B-21 be acquired by Australia need to look at all of the issues, not just that it's a flash toy and nice to have.
As far as I am aware there are no export restrictions on B52,B1 or even B2 outside the need of the USAF Strategic Air Command its just that countries whom have had the need had there own like the UK with the V bombers, the French content with the Mirage IV for there needs. I am also lead to believe that the US offered Australia B-47 Stratojet before Australia selected the Canberra.

But getting back to the B21 I havnt seen anything to suggest otherwise yet

US seemingly confirms potential for Aussie B-21 participation - Defence Connect

This growing number of new, costly platforms has drawn the attention of the head of the US Air Force’s Global Strike Command, General Timothy Ray, who has made thinly veiled comments about America’s allies, raising questions about the potential for allied participation in the B-21 Raider program to ease the economic and strategic burden on the US.

"Only the United States flies or builds bombers among its allies and partners. The last foreign squadron retired in 1984," he said.

This concern has been identified by Ben Packham of The Australian, referencing the US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, who said the US would "look favourably" on an Australian request to participate in America's long-range strike aircraft program – namely the B-21 Raider.

Secretary Ross reportedly told Packham, "We have no intention of vacating our military or our geopolitical position but we would be delighted to sell Australia more aircraft if that’s what suits your Department of Defence."
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
I am also lead to believe that the US offered Australia B-47 Stratojet before Australia selected the Canberra.
I don’t believe that is correct.

My understanding is the US offered the ‘free’ loan of two Squadrons of B-47 as an interim replacement for the Canberra bombers until the F-111C fleet eventually entered service.

Whilst the loan aircraft would be free, Australia would have been responsible for all other costs, in the end the offer was rejected.

And as we know two Squadrons of F-4E eventually operated as an interim capability.

Cheers,
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
As far as I am aware there are no export restrictions on B52,B1 or even B2 outside the need of the USAF Strategic Air Command its just that countries whom have had the need had there own like the UK with the V bombers, the French content with the Mirage IV for there needs. I am also lead to believe that the US offered Australia B-47 Stratojet before Australia selected the Canberra.

But getting back to the B21 I havnt seen anything to suggest otherwise yet

US seemingly confirms potential for Aussie B-21 participation - Defence Connect
Let's deal with the Defence Connect article first. The operative word is "seemingly", so that is just pure supposition with no evidence whatsoever. The US only ever let one other country operate the B-47 and that was when they convinced the UK to allow RAF aircrew to overfly the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries in RB-47s that belonged to the USAF, were serviced by USAF ground crews, but flew in RAF markings.

Just because you can't find an open source reference for any US ban on the export of the B-47, B-52, B-1, and B-2 doesn't mean one exists. For all we know there could quite easily be a classified Presidential finding or order making it so. Such information doesn't necessarily need to be in the public domain.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I believe the US loaned a B-47 to Avro Canada/RCAF to test the Arrow’s Iroquois jet engine back in the late 1950s. Operation would have been limited to around Toronto and Lake Ontario.
 

At lakes

Well-Known Member
Let's deal with the Defence Connect article first. The operative word is "seemingly", so that is just pure supposition with no evidence whatsoever. The US only ever let one other country operate the B-47 and that was when they convinced the UK to allow RAF aircrew to overfly the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries in RB-47s that belonged to the USAF, were serviced by USAF ground crews, but flew in RAF markings.

Just because you can't find an open source reference for any US ban on the export of the B-47, B-52, B-1, and B-2 doesn't mean one exists. For all we know there could quite easily be a classified Presidential finding or order making it so. Such information doesn't necessarily need to be in the public domain.
My understanding was that the RB47 did not fly with the RAF but the B45 Tornado did. It flew with RAF Markings and RAF crew supported by USAF.
see #54 on Warbirds thread for full details.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
My understanding was that the RB47 did not fly with the RAF but the B45 Tornado did. It flew with RAF Markings and RAF crew supported by USAF.
I knew that the Tornado did, but I am reasonably sure that the RB-47 did to. The yanks were quite cunning about it, because they had RAF aircrew flying the U-2 as well and IIRC the last RAF U-2 crewed flight over the Soviet Union was about two weeks before Major Gary Powers was shot down in his U-2. Possibly @swerve may know more on whether or not the RAF flew any variants of the B-47.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
I don’t believe that is correct.

My understanding is the US offered the ‘free’ loan of two Squadrons of B-47 as an interim replacement for the Canberra bombers until the F-111C fleet eventually entered service.

Whilst the loan aircraft would be free, Australia would have been responsible for all other costs, in the end the offer was rejected.

And as we know two Squadrons of F-4E eventually operated as an interim capability.

Cheers,
I stand corrected if that is the case, just remember reading something about it many years ago
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Let's deal with the Defence Connect article first. The operative word is "seemingly", so that is just pure supposition with no evidence whatsoever. The US only ever let one other country operate the B-47 and that was when they convinced the UK to allow RAF aircrew to overfly the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries in RB-47s that belonged to the USAF, were serviced by USAF ground crews, but flew in RAF markings.

Just because you can't find an open source reference for any US ban on the export of the B-47, B-52, B-1, and B-2 doesn't mean one exists. For all we know there could quite easily be a classified Presidential finding or order making it so. Such information doesn't necessarily need to be in the public domain.
Well no one has refuted the idea of Australia being involved within the program as far as I can tell and it appears that there is some degree that they welcome our involvement, even CSBA CEO has called for consideration for Australia to become involved, I also note that of limited discussion if the UK should join as well.

Also from what I can tell there was no objection from the USGov at the time of being able to export F22, the Obey admendment was a congressional ban, I hardly think there was a need for a classified presidential export ban on certain aircraft.

But in the case of the LRB fleet over the last few decades it comes down to requirements of each nation and the US willing to sell to that nation does not constitute an export ban to all and sundry
 

t68

Well-Known Member
@ John Newman

Having a squiz online I may have got my timelines mixed up, apparently there was a report in replacement of the Canberra bombers by Air Vice-Marshal Murdoch in 54 looking at the replacement for the Canberra’s from 59 and his recommendation for the Avro Vulcan for the RAAF, apparently B52 was looked at but was deemed to be heavy for our needs.

Apparently there is a book in the National library regarding this called “The Vulcan Option for the Royal Australian Air Force.” RAAF’s Air Power Studies Centre, (written by Denis O’Brien, March 1994).

As usual of the time for the ADF cost got in the way
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
The 2020 Defence Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan sets out the direction the defence force will be taking over the next 20 years. No doubt the idea of a specialist bomber was investigated and rejected as part of that plan. Reading between the lines of that plan and it seems obvious that the future long range strike capability will mostly be based around unmanned systems and long range strike missiles.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
As far as I am aware there are no export restrictions on B52,B1 or even B2 outside the need of the USAF Strategic Air Command its just that countries whom have had the need had there own like the UK with the V bombers, the French content with the Mirage IV for there needs. I am also lead to believe that the US offered Australia B-47 Stratojet before Australia selected the Canberra.

But getting back to the B21 I havnt seen anything to suggest otherwise yet

US seemingly confirms potential for Aussie B-21 participation - Defence Connect
That Defence Connect article is from Nov. 2019, so a bit dated from a programme perspective, not to mention that member of the US Executive branch the article referred to was the then-Sec of Commerce, Wilbur Ross. Aside from an inclination on my part to treat anything coming from him as suspect until proven otherwise (he apparently had a number of conflicts of interest and/or non-disclosures when he was Sec during the prior administration), the Secretary of Commerce is no where near as important as the SecDef or SecState, especially for something like a FMS transaction of strategic hardware which will be part of the US nuclear triad.

Relating to that, as mentioned the B-21 Raider is to have a role in US nuclear deterrence, as a replacement for the B-2. Also, such an arms sale would need approval from the US State Department, and one of the considerations they would have is what would be the impact of such a sale, asking questions like, "would this kickstart a regional arms race?" or, "would this accelerate hostilities?". Even if approval from the State Dept was granted (which IMO would be unlikely for a strategic asset like a LO intercontinental nuclear/conventional strategic bomber) the sale would then need to get Congressional approval. I could easily see members of Congress working to pass something similar to the Obey Amendment if significant noise/interest in purchasing the B-21 gets exhibited outside the US. Now if there were current, reputable US sources which indicated that the current administration and minority party were interested in FMS of the B-21 Raider, the situation would be different. So far though, it seems that the interest in such a sale, as well as the potential for it to occur, are all coming from Australian sources. Further, it seems that these sources are not giving what IMO would be due consideration to objections various elements of the US would have, since (at present) no US laws currently exist which prohibit such a sale.

I am not going to re-hash the significant cost issues which others have already touched upon if such an order were to be attempted.

However, I do feel the need to point out something which AFAIK no one else has commented on. IF the RAAF were to place such an order, and IF it was to get all the way through the requisite FMS and other restrictions, when would be the first delivery, IOC and then FOC? Under current plans, the B-21 Raider is expected to enter service in the USAF in 2026 or 2027, with between 80 and 100 aircraft ordered. Depending on what the full scale production rate is, it could take years before the USAF order is completed. This would be dragged out even more if the US does end up increasing the total fleet size up to 200... I would therefore not expect any B-21 Raider deliveries to the RAAF to be able to occur until 2032 or later, again assuming that a sale was placed and approved.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
That Defence Connect article is from Nov. 2019, so a bit dated from a programme perspective, not to mention that member of the US Executive branch the article referred to was the then-Sec of Commerce, Wilbur Ross. Aside from an inclination on my part to treat anything coming from him as suspect until proven otherwise (he apparently had a number of conflicts of interest and/or non-disclosures when he was Sec during the prior administration), the Secretary of Commerce is no where near as important as the SecDef or SecState, especially for something like a FMS transaction of strategic hardware which will be part of the US nuclear triad.

Relating to that, as mentioned the B-21 Raider is to have a role in US nuclear deterrence, as a replacement for the B-2. Also, such an arms sale would need approval from the US State Department, and one of the considerations they would have is what would be the impact of such a sale, asking questions like, "would this kickstart a regional arms race?" or, "would this accelerate hostilities?". Even if approval from the State Dept was granted (which IMO would be unlikely for a strategic asset like a LO intercontinental nuclear/conventional strategic bomber) the sale would then need to get Congressional approval. I could easily see members of Congress working to pass something similar to the Obey Amendment if significant noise/interest in purchasing the B-21 gets exhibited outside the US. Now if there were current, reputable US sources which indicated that the current administration and minority party were interested in FMS of the B-21 Raider, the situation would be different. So far though, it seems that the interest in such a sale, as well as the potential for it to occur, are all coming from Australian sources. Further, it seems that these sources are not giving what IMO would be due consideration to objections various elements of the US would have, since (at present) no US laws currently exist which prohibit such a sale.

I am not going to re-hash the significant cost issues which others have already touched upon if such an order were to be attempted.

However, I do feel the need to point out something which AFAIK no one else has commented on. IF the RAAF were to place such an order, and IF it was to get all the way through the requisite FMS and other restrictions, when would be the first delivery, IOC and then FOC? Under current plans, the B-21 Raider is expected to enter service in the USAF in 2026 or 2027, with between 80 and 100 aircraft ordered. Depending on what the full scale production rate is, it could take years before the USAF order is completed. This would be dragged out even more if the US does end up increasing the total fleet size up to 200... I would therefore not expect any B-21 Raider deliveries to the RAAF to be able to occur until 2032 or later, again assuming that a sale was placed and approved.

Yep all well and good and a good post, but the whole point of my post was NG assertions that the LRB fleet had export bans and to my knowledge no there weren’t any except for the F22 which has the only official ban in place

As for the banning of weapons platforms that are nuclear capable both the F18 & F111 has nuclear weapons capabilities and the F111 was part of SAC, so I would not suggest it’s cut and dried. The Sec Def was quite happy for the RAAF to get F22 but the Congressional ban put the kobosh on that if the RAAF even wanted it

but untill such a time someone from congress places a ban on it it open for export potential
 
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